The Top 20 Minnesota Twins Player Assets of 2024: Part 4 (1-5)

[JD-TWINS]

11 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

No doubt - those are our top five.  Buxton appropriately not on the top 20 list, but if he were to regain 120 or so game health, he surely would be added.

Would we be upset if we were to wake up on the trade deadline in ‘25 and our 13 position players on the active roster were:

Starters: Lewis (3B), Correa (SS), Lee (2B), Julien (1B), Jeffers (C), Jenkins (CF), Rodriguez (LF), Wallner (RF), Buxton (DH)

Bench: Camargo, and choose three of Martin, Kiriloff, Severino, Miller, Schobel, Miranda, Larnach, an additional FA, etc.

Is this where a true multi-year open window could begin for a cash constrained mid/small market team (coming off two straight division titles in ‘23 and ‘24)?

 

Since Buxton has played more than 100 games ONCE in 9 seasons, it’s a stretch for us here to think he’ll “get back to 120 game form”.  That said, I’ve suggested 2-3 times he could play CF 35-40 games and at DH another 75-80 games in ‘24. Fingers crossed. Not sure how real it is for him to have health entering the season and then an even lower percentage for him to stay healthy enough to start 75% of the games.

My slant here is an educated guess as well for August 31 of 2025………

I think we trade Rodriguez as part of a deal for a pitcher between now & then. Guessing Larnach & Miranda don’t make it either.

Starters at the deadline in ‘25:

Lee - CC - Julien - Kirilloff on the dirt - Jeffers as catcher……Lewis - Jenkins - Wallner in the grass & Buxton as the DH.

Vazquez - Martin - Severino - Castro on the bench.

Will be fun to re-visit in another 18-20 months! 

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, ashbury said:

Three teams won 100 or more games in 2023.  Those three ranked #7, #13, and #15 in the majors in ERA.

They ranked #1, #2, and #7 in runs scored.

Make of that what you will.

Get your point - however, the team that won it all went out & got Scherzer & Montgomery at the deadline and had deGrom out with a year long injury. Lots of respect for pitching! The teams that field the best rosters AND are playing well at the end of the year are the teams in the mix. The Braves had to be near the top of runs scored and they WATCHED a lot of playoff baseball. My point is year to year, the end of regular season statistical positions don’t necessarily yield the Champion.

Pitching can dominate in postseason play - that’s not a mystery nor anything new.

IN the playoffs, the TWINS gave up a key homer from Thielbar that lead to a “low scoring” loss. Gray stunk it up in his start v. Astros. Ober dug the team a hole in his start, nothing terrible but a tone was set.

Lopez - Paddack - Varland - Jax - Stewart - Duran all looked very good over the 2 postseason Series. Runs are always great but if one doesn’t control the other team’s offense it’s difficult to win games in a short series.

[ashbury]

25 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Get your point - however, the team that won it all went out & got Scherzer & Montgomery at the deadline and had deGrom out with a year long injury. Lots of respect for pitching! The teams that field the best rosters AND are playing well at the end of the year are the teams in the mix. The Braves had to be near the top of runs scored and they WATCHED a lot of playoff baseball. My point is year to year, the end of regular season statistical positions don’t necessarily yield the Champion.

Pitching can dominate in postseason play - that’s not a mystery nor anything new.

IN the playoffs, the TWINS gave up a key homer from Thielbar that lead to a “low scoring” loss. Gray stunk it up in his start v. Astros. Ober dug the team a hole in his start, nothing terrible but a tone was set.

Lopez - Paddack - Varland - Jax - Stewart - Duran all looked very good over the 2 postseason Series. Runs are always great but if one doesn’t control the other team’s offense it’s difficult to win games in a short series.

"Pitching wins games."   Simple.  That's all I was responding to.  I don't disagree with your more nuanced position.

[saviking]

On 1/5/2024 at 8:58 AM, jjswol said:

I like Walker Jenkins too but don't see him as the Twins top asset. Like you said, he has 26 games of experience under his belt, way to early to crown him king at this point.

Nothing against Jenkins but I don't know how you can place anyone ahead of Royce Lewis

[Mike Sixel]

58 minutes ago, saviking said:

Nothing against Jenkins but I don't know how you can place anyone ahead of Royce Lewis

How many games has Lewis been healthy for in the last three years? That's about the only way, imo. 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

On 1/5/2024 at 4:16 PM, Fatbat said:

Lee has only had 1 full year of the high minors.  At age 22 in the high minors, who has ever put up video game #s for a whole season fresh out of college? 

You're right, it's uncommon, but not unheard of.  If Lee is to be the superstar that people are wishing for, he needs some better numbers than he has put up so far in the minor leagues.  He may become very good, but he's not there yet. 

[Fatbat]

3 hours ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

You're right, it's uncommon, but not unheard of.  If Lee is to be the superstar that people are wishing for, he needs some better numbers than he has put up so far in the minor leagues.  He may become very good, but he's not there yet. 

If you dive into his stats. He has started out average at a new level and as he makes his adjustments, he starts to crush and then is sent to another level. Its been about as linear at each step as you can get.  That type of progression is only done by someone mature enough to understand what he is doing and what is needed to be successful.  There is nothing to suggest that type of development wont occur in MLB.  I guarantee you that if he is ready for MLB this spring. He will be there because it bring the FO not only the best possible lineup but brings an additional comp pick next year for the fast track.  You know our FO wants that in the worst way. 

[Mike Sixel]

2 hours ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

You're right, it's uncommon, but not unheard of.  If Lee is to be the superstar that people are wishing for, he needs some better numbers than he has put up so far in the minor leagues.  He may become very good, but he's not there yet. 

In AAA the first full year baseball....I'm not sure what people expect?

[Rod Carews Birthday]

24 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

If you drive into his stats. He has started out average at a new level and as he makes his adjustments, he starts to crush and then is sent to another level. Its been about as linear at each step as you can get.  That type of progression is only done by someone mature enough to understand what he is doing and what is needed to be successful.  There is nothing to suggest that type of development wont occur in MLB.  I guarantee you that if he is ready for MLB this spring. He will be there because it bring the FO not only the best possible lineup but brings an additional comp pick next year for the fast track.  You know our FO wants that in the worst way. 

 

3 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

In AAA the first full year baseball....I'm not sure what people expect?

Sorry if my intent was not clear here.  My point is that some fans are crowning Brooks Lee to be the next Mike Trout or saying he's going to be an immediate star who "hits and fields better than Carlos Correa by 2025".  If this were to be the case, his numbers would be off the charts in the minor leagues, which they are not. 

I think he will develop into a good player, but the hyperbole that I read does him and the Twins a disservice.  Give him some time to develop and some patience when he comes up.  With what Lewis, Julien, and Wallner did last year, the expectations could get out of line a little.  A good outcome as a rookie for Brooks Lee would be what those guys did.  I'll be thrilled if he exceeds that, whenever it may occur.

[Fatbat]

9 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

In AAA the first full year baseball....I'm not sure what people expect?

Yeah, It took him about 50 games to start lighting up AA and just 30 in AAA but maybe he will burn out in MLB at age 23. Lol 🤦‍♂️

[Fatbat]

3 minutes ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

 

Sorry if my intent was not clear here.  My point is that some fans are crowning Brooks Lee to be the next Mike Trout or saying he's going to be an immediate star who "hits and fields better than Carlos Correa by 2025".  If this were to be the case, his numbers would be off the charts in the minor leagues, which they are not. 

I think he will develop into a good player, but the hyperbole that I read does him and the Twins a disservice.  Give him some time to develop and some patience when he comes up.  With what Lewis, Julien, and Wallner did last year, the expectations could get out of line a little.  A good outcome as a rookie for Brooks Lee would be what those guys did.  I'll be thrilled if he exceeds that, whenever it may occur.

It may be better for him to develop along side Lewis, Julien and Correa instead of inferior competition in AAA. Why let him sit in AAA when he can elevate his game to match with the guys he will obviously be playing with over the next 7-10 years.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

7 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

It may be better for him to develop along side Lewis, Julien and Correa instead of inferior competition in AAA. Why let him sit in AAA when he can elevate his game to match with the guys he will obviously be playing with over the next 7-10 years.

It may be good to temper the expectations.  Calling the competition at AAA inferior at this point seems a little premature. 

[wabene]

Guys like Lee and Kirilloff have a built-in advantage which for whatever reason isn't talked about much. AK's Dad is a hitting instructor and Lee's is a long tenured college coach. These guys seem to have well developed bats with a mature approach. I think that's why Lee has had such a linear adjustment to each level. These players have been drilled seriously their whole lives. 

[Fatbat]

55 minutes ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

It may be good to temper the expectations.  Calling the competition at AAA inferior at this point seems a little premature. 

AAA guys that average 26 yo is inferior to MLB. Thats why they are there.  Lee at 22 was destroying 24 yo pitchers in AA and did for a month in AAA.  Lee isnt going to MLB pitching right away but developing along side his teammates against the best doesn’t have much of a downside. 

[Major League Ready]

On 1/5/2024 at 4:31 PM, Fatbat said:

Lee has only had 1 full year of the high minors.  At age 22 in the high minors, who has ever put up video game #s for a whole season fresh out of college? 
****+apologies for the duplicate ********

Wyatt Langford had an OPS 0f 1.285 in AA and 1.065 in AAA last year.  I hope Lee is the real deal but he has not proven to be an elite prospect at this point..  He was very good for at the end of his AA stint and may very well rip up AAA this year but he still has some proving to do, IMO.

[TNTwinsFan]

Using this list to evaluate trade candidates I'm trading:

 

1. Raya

2. E-Rod (for pitching)

3. Lee (for pitching)

 

Send all three in a package to either Seattle or Miami for 2 of their SPs. If it takes adding Festa, so be it.

Also, Walker Jenkins gets a cup of coffee with the Twins this September and is my starting CF in 2025.

[AlwaysinModeration]

3 hours ago, TNTwinsFan said:

Using this list to evaluate trade candidates I'm trading:

 

1. Raya

2. E-Rod (for pitching)

3. Lee (for pitching)

 

Send all three in a package to either Seattle or Miami for 2 of their SPs. If it takes adding Festa, so be it.

Also, Walker Jenkins gets a cup of coffee with the Twins this September and is my starting CF in 2025.

If this is your cover letter of your application to work for the Twins FO I’m not sure it’s getting picked up off of the pile.

[TNTwinsFan]

Raya seems like a Berrios-lite. The OP mentioned that Lee may be currently over valued so it might be time to capitalize on some quality, young, controllable pitching.  My guess is that pairing him with the likes of E-Rod (who may also be currently overvalued) and perhaps Festa might net a couole of young, quality arms that can be plugged into the rotation now.