Is This a Championship Core?

[Nick Nelson]

Baseball is very much a team game, but in many cases, a small nucleus of transcendently talented players are the differentiators who elevate championship-caliber clubs.

Minnesota has assembled a trio of star players in their primes who've shown they can play at an MVP-caliber level in the majors. But question marks abound for Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton and Royce Lewis, heading into a pivotal season.

Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson, Matt Blewett, Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports

Looking back at the most successful teams in recent MLB history, we see how the impact of multiple star players clicking at the same time can carry clubs to new heights. The most recent example is the World Series champion Texas Rangers, who were propelled by a pair of top-three MVP finishers (Corey Seager and Marcus Semien). 

Teams like the Dodgers, Astros, Phillies, and Braves have, similarly, been elevated by their star power. Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, Bryce Harper, Ronald Acuna, Jr., and Matt Olson deliver massive value on the way to 100-plus win seasons and deep playoff runs. Pitching and depth both matter, as we've learned, but the reality is that having multiple everyday players on your roster who put up 5+ WAR can make up for a lot issues elsewhere. This concentrated production also tends to factor more heavily in October, where individual impact is accentuated.

The Twins have long worked to build this kind of core, and are hoping it will all come together in 2024. Carlos Correa is entering his age-29 season, Byron Buxton his age-30 season, and Royce Lewis is looking to put in his first full MLB campaign at age 24. 

The Three North Stars
It was always known that these three players could be destined for the tier of true major-league superstars. All were baseball prodigies from a very young age. Correa and Lewis were both No. 1 overall draft picks, and Buxton (No. 2 behind Correa in 2012) would've been the top pick in many other years. 

The Twins invested heavily to acquire these three–in money, draft capital, or both–and now the franchise has reached a point it's long been building toward: all three are in the majors, in their (ostensible) physical primes, and ready to join forces for a clear contender.

Yes, there are question marks surrounding each of the three, as we'll discuss, but let's just look at what they've done when on the field. Here's a rough calculation of each player's fWAR per full season (averaged out for Buxton and Correa, extrapolated for Lewis):

• Carlos Correa: 4.7 fWAR per 150 games
• Byron Buxton: 4.2 fWAR per 150 games
• Royce Lewis: 6.2 fWAR per 150 games

At a base level, if all three of these players stay mostly healthy next year and play to these standards of production, you've got a championship-caliber nucleus, plain and simple. Those are All-Star players at three critical positions. If we take one step farther into the realm of optimism, one could envision any of the three contending for an MVP in 2024. Correa wasn't far off from that form in 2021 or 2022. The same can be said for Buxton during that span, when on the field: he amassed 8.1 fWAR in 153 games. 

Lewis is the least proven, but his potential feels almost limitless, after watching him slug at a 40-homer pace while acclimating to major-league pitching. To whatever extent the clutch gene exists, Lewis has it in spades. That is undeniable. 

In addition to on-field production and pedigree, all three of these guys are leaders in the clubhouse, with intangible value that magnifies their positive impact. When you take away the injuries, it's easy to see why the Twins and their current front office have placed this trio at the center of their team-building scheme.

Of course, you can't take away the injuries.

The Elephant in the Room
Let's just get it all out there. Correa is coming off the worst season of his career, in which he was plagued by signs of potential age-related regression even beyond the plantar fasciitis that bothered him for much of the season. Buxton's year was a depressing mess, casting doubt on his ability to stay on the field at all going forward, let alone play center field regularly. Lewis has played all of 118 total games over the past four seasons due to a medley of injuries, which extended into his brilliant rookie year. 

Coming off an 87-win season, it's understandable why many fans are yearning for more star power to be added to the mix this offseason, but that level of help probably isn't coming. The Twins will be focused on using what limited resources they have to replace their pitching losses and replenish their depth. 

They have little choice but to depend on these three core players as the foundations of their championship vision for 2024–because of the financial commitments they've already made to Correa and Buxton, and because of the ability Lewis has shown. There's an inclination for fans to focus on the negative or the downside in scenarios like these. After all, we've been conditioned to expect the worst when it comes to injury outcomes. But as this quiet offseason unfolds, I urge you to look at the bright side, and to consider the ceiling for the team if it all comes together next year. 

Reasons to Believe
Setting aside the injury baggage, let's remind ourselves of the talent level these three players possess, and the highlights they've produced in big spots over the past few seasons. Is it plausible for all three to realize their top form next year? Here are some points for optimism:

• Not always, but plantar fasciitis is often an injury that lingers throughout a season before clearing up with extended rest during the offseason. That'll be the hope for Correa, who notably looked excellent in the playoffs after finally tearing the fascia late in the season.
• La Velle E. Neal III of the Star Tribune reported over the weekend that Buxton is "fully recovered" from his latest knee surgery and preparing for next season with the goal of playing center field. Given what a tough time he's had with the knee, I understand the widespread skepticism, but the team and its trainers are at least implementing a clear plan to address it. These things can take time.
• You'd like to think Lewis's catastrophic bad breaks are behind him. His twice-repaired right knee looked fully functional after his return this year. Hopefully going through some troubles with the oblique and hamstring helped him learn about managing his body and avoiding soft-tissue injuries going forward. For what it's worth, staying healthy and on the field was never a problem for Lewis prior to the two fluky ACL tears. 

The Time Is Now for This Twins Trio
When Derek Falvey and Thad Levine took over the Twins front office, they inherited the first overall pick in their very first draft. They used it to select Lewis, setting in motion a team-building vision that is now reaching its planned fruition. Along the way, Correa and Buxton joined Lewis as core building blocks, signing two of the largest contracts in team history. 

This is it. This is what the Twins have been building toward and now we'll see if these three superstar-caliber players can come together and make magic. Down the line, they might be joined or succeeded at this level by the likes of Brooks Lee or Walker Jenkins, who arguably offer the same kind of upside. But for now, look no further than Correa, Buxton and Lewis as the decisive factors in Minnesota's outlook in 2024, regardless of what else happens this offseason.

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[jjswol]

When Buxton shows up and proves he can play center field than he moves into the  core status player. Until then, he remains a number one pick that didn't pan out.

[Cap'n Piranha]

It's a Schrodinger Championship Core.  If all 3 are concurrently healthy (and healthy means able to play in the field, not limited to DH), then yes, it's a championship core, inasmuch as 3 players is sufficient to comprise a core.  If any of the 3 are not healthy (including being able to play, but only as a DH), then no, it's not a championship core.

That last part is certainly true for any team, but the difference with this group is the (seemingly) much higher risk of health/availability issues.  Continued emergence from Julien and Jeffers, along with a breakout from at least one of Kiriloff/Lee/Martin/Larnach/Wallner would go a long way towards reducing the need to wish for all 3 of the Buxton/Correa/Lewis triumvirate to reverse their injury trajectories.

[UK Twin]

The biggest question mark of the three is obviously Buxton. Lewis picked up a hamstring strain during the season which can happen to anyone - importantly his knee is fine. Correa and the Twins are optimistic his plantar fasciitis will sort itself out during the winter. Ideally, Buxton will be healthy enough to man CF at least 3 times a week so the DH spot can be rotated, giving the likes of Correa more rest. SS is one of the more physically demanding positions to play so Correa DH'ing once a week will help him.

I long for a year where those 3 can produce at the level they can without injuries disrupting them. It would be fantastic to watch.

[Riverbrian]

A championship core... comprised of X amount of players is only a championship core if they perform like a championship core. 

Correa and Buxton did not earn this designation last year.

We will see who steps up in 2024. We have multiple candidates with the potential to help us bring one home. 

 

 

[Parfigliano]

I put more faith in kirilloff, Wallner or Julien having an impact season then Buxton.  

[Doctor Gast]

Lewis was the spark plug that got us to be divisional champs. But for us to advance to the big dance we need all 3 of these guys healthy & that's what needs to be the focus. Lopez will also needs to be in the equation. We still need at least one more SP to step up to fill in the PS #2 SP. The other premium position catcher we need to shine. Yet in the regular season we beat TX, HOU, AZ & PHI head on

[RpR]

With out Farmer and Solano, this year, the Twins would not have made the post season.

Will they be replaced well enough?

[mikelink45]

Not my core three - Correa should/would be, but for now our core three are Lewis, Julien and Lopez.  

[darin617]

No chance at all for this to be a Championship team.  Winning the AL Central sadly is the goal for the last 30+ years.  The Twins would have to get extremely lucky with like 4-5 rookies that magically become studs out of no where to even have a small chance.

 

[TwinsDr2021]

2 hours ago, jjswol said:

When Buxton shows up and proves he can play center field than he moves into the  core status player. Until then, he remains a number one pick that didn't pan out.

Buxton has a career WAR of 21, pretty sure that isn't the definition of didn't pan out. With that said he needs to stay healthy.

[tony&rodney]

Royce Lewis has had his status elevated very quickly among Twins fans. The home runs in the playoffs and his energy when he came aboard were great. It just seems a little early to declare Lewis a star. I mean, I hope he is as much as anyone else. He only has about 250 at bats though. Next season will be huge for Royce as he attempts to become the superstar often associated with #1-1 draft picks. 

The core is in flux and unsteady as others have mentioned. The Twins have holes and there will be plenty of challenges for the Twins to repeat as AL Central Division winners. The two biggest questions go right towards our stars: Buxton and Correa. From there the Twins have questions about their young guys and a hole in the rotation. Other than that, everything is great.

[Jocko87]

27 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

Not my core three - Correa should/would be, but for now our core three are Lewis, Julien and Lopez.  

There is no would or should be on Correa. He's the core of the core, regardless of performance. It's his team now and the others orbit around him. You don't have to like it but a core without Correa is silly. It's not just a baseball question.

Pablo is right on the cusp and a championship core should include some pitchers, ideally.

Julien is a role player in this discussion.

[TwinsDr2021]

I think the championship has less to do with these three as the starting pitching, relief pitching and offensive/defensive depth. These three players can overcome some of that but not all of it.

[farmerguychris]

I think to truly have a 'core' of stars - you need to have more than 1 proven starting pitcher.  We've got Lopez, and I feel that Ryan has the talent - but we'll need Ryan to become a star before I'll feel good about this 'core' being defined as being ready to contend for a title.

[Brandon]

As far as position players go the core of Correa, Buxton, and Lewis can definitely carry the team if they are all healthy and playing in peak form.  That is a really big if.  That being said the potential is there.

The Twins even have a nice supporting cast similar to the Braves but without the team friendly extensions (hint front office.... Hint) of Wallner, Jeffers, Killeroff, Polanco, Kepler, and Julien.  

On the pitching side we have a core of Lopez and Duran with a nice supporting cast of Ryan, Ober, and maybe / likely Paddack (health pending) and a bullpen support cast of Thielbar, Jax, Stewart, and possibly Varland if in the pen and the jury will be out on Funderburk, Alcala, and Winder (Winder did seem to settle in down the stretch run)

So yes, we have the core for a really good team.  As long as there is no real regression or too many injuries.  That is why I think the key to the offseason is to find a 2-3 starter, a 6th/7th starter maybe a bullpen arm and depth around the diamond.  nothing too major outside the one rotation arm.  This is why I am not too concerned about the payroll drop especially now that resigning Gray is no longer an option.  what we need shouldn't cost too much.  

[Beast]

No.

I expect Correa to be better once healthy.  He was our best player in the playoffs while injured, and is the only Twins player I’ve seen in 20 years that didn’t curl into the fetal position in the playoffs.  He’s a legit piece.

Lewis won’t sustain what he’s done thus far.   Not to say he’s not a really good player, but I think the expectations for him going forward are a little off the rails.  IF he can stay healthy (big if), he may be a legit piece.  I’m not convinced he’ll stay healthy.

Buxton is only as good as the number of games he can play in CF.  He’s just not that great at the plate to be a “championship core” piece while DHing.

Talking about this squad and championships in the same breath is a waste of time.  If you would’ve asked me after the season if it’s possible with this core, I would’ve said they still need to invest in a big time hitter and pitcher, and clean out some of these guys that folded like origami in the playoffs.  Knowing now that they’re unwilling to make anything that even resembles that level of investment, I think it’s much more likely that I die or the world ends before I see this team win a World Series.  Absolutely no shot.

[PatPfund]

Man, if Buxton can play defense, and hit off healthy knees, this IS a great core with several other pieces (Miranda, Kirilloff, Julien, Jeffers, Vasquez, Wallner, Kepler) who could make it a great team with healthy productive years. But I'll remain skeptical about Byron in the field until I see it on back-to-back days. You can tell he is aching for it, and that will lead to positive buzz, but that buzz has faltered repeatedly in the face of actual playing time the past couple years.

Double my skepticism if the Twins hold Buxton out of Spring Training games (especially with lame excuses of the sort that turned out to be deceptive for several players last spring).

[DJL44]

3 hours ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

It's a Schrodinger Championship Core.  If all 3 are concurrently healthy (and healthy means able to play in the field, not limited to DH), then yes, it's a championship core, inasmuch as 3 players is sufficient to comprise a core.  If any of the 3 are not healthy (including being able to play, but only as a DH), then no, it's not a championship core.

The good news is they don't all need to be healthy to win the division. They can win in the playoffs if they can all stay healthy for one month. They are at least one starting pitcher away from a good playoff roster even if the hitters are all healthy.

[Chris Spencer]

No chance I would have Buxton listed as a championship core player. He is a below average DH making star money. If he was playing 75% of his games in center I might reconsider. He is a negative asset to the team as its sits now. Correa's numbers might not have been awesome last year but he brings leadership quality's that are hard to quantify. I would have Pablo as part of the trio ahead of Buxton.  I would say Royce, Walker and Brooks in a couple years has a better chance.   

[Major League Ready]

2 hours ago, RpR said:

With out Farmer and Solano, this year, the Twins would not have made the post season.

Will they be replaced well enough?

The Twins won the division by 9 games.  Solano and farmer combined for 2.8 WAR so this is a huge stretch.  They were not critical to making the playoffs and they won't be that hard to replace.

[JD-TWINS]

3 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

Lewis was the spark plug that got us to be divisional champs. But for us to advance to the big dance we need all 3 of these guys healthy & that's what needs to be the focus. Lopez will also needs to be in the equation. We still need at least one more SP to step up to fill in the PS #2 SP. The other premium position catcher we need to shine. Yet in the regular season we beat TX, HOU, AZ & PHI head on

We were 14-5 against the ALCS & NLCS teams in regular season.

[RpR]

26 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

The Twins won the division by 9 games.  Solano and farmer combined for 2.8 WAR so this is a huge stretch.  They were not critical to making the playoffs and they won't be that hard to replace.

War doe not decide a players true value or Jeffers, Julien would  gone.

Juliens defense is a hole in the infield.

You live by analytics,, I do not.

 

[JD-TWINS]

Buxton at DH for 125 games is fine with me if he’s healthy enough to hit & able to run at 85% of his previous self. If he hits .235 his power (XBH) will be fine with a probability of a minimum 25 HR & 25 doubles…….fine production for 75% of the games! He had 17 HR & 17 doubles in ‘23 & played in 84 games & hit .207………25 of each this year is pretty feasible.

CC really seemed himself or better in the playoffs so I have to believe he can get back to his norm of 140 games at .275BA with a little pop.

Lewis is a star if he can stay on the field.

Jeffers - Julien - Wallner - Kepler - Farmer - Castro - Lee - Martin - Kirilloff - Vazquez should be enough to support the “core” from July - October!

Sign a FA pitcher like Lugo for an affordable $13M and with him - Varland - Paddack the Staff should be fine.

[Parfigliano]

2 hours ago, Beast said:

No.

I expect Correa to be better once healthy.  He was our best player in the playoffs while injured, and is the only Twins player I’ve seen in 20 years that didn’t curl into the fetal position in the playoffs.  He’s a legit piece.

Lewis won’t sustain what he’s done thus far.   Not to say he’s not a really good player, but I think the expectations for him going forward are a little off the rails.  IF he can stay healthy (big if), he may be a legit piece.  I’m not convinced he’ll stay healthy.

Buxton is only as good as the number of games he can play in CF.  He’s just not that great at the plate to be a “championship core” piece while DHing.

Talking about this squad and championships in the same breath is a waste of time.  If you would’ve asked me after the season if it’s possible with this core, I would’ve said they still need to invest in a big time hitter and pitcher, and clean out some of these guys that folded like origami in the playoffs.  Knowing now that they’re unwilling to make anything that even resembles that level of investment, I think it’s much more likely that I die or the world ends before I see this team win a World Series.  Absolutely no shot.

If again Buxton cant play D he shouldnt play cause he's a liability as DH.

[Major League Ready]

5 hours ago, RpR said:

War doe not decide a players true value or Jeffers, Julien would  gone.

Juliens defense is a hole in the infield.

You live by analytics,, I do not.

 

Julien and Jeffers were #1 and #2 on the team in WAR so your statement makes absolutely no sense.  Also Julien's  defense has improved significantly on defense.  Do you watch the games?  He was not a liability at the end of the season.  He improved enough that his OAA was 0 for the year after starting odd negatively.  Players can improve defensively.   You repeatedly prove that once you form an opinion about a player on defense they can't improve and they are worthless.   

[old nurse]

5 hours ago, jjswol said:

When Buxton shows up and proves he can play center field than he moves into the  core status player. Until then, he remains a number one pick that didn't pan out.

Buxton has 21 b war, 13th overall for number 2 picks. I guess that is not panning out compared to Verlander. He has the 4th most bwar of those picked in the first 2 rounds that year.  

[LastOnePicked]

I want to say yes, but they just couldn't get over the hurdle last year. They still seem to be 2-3 players away yet from being a championship-level core. And the core you mentioned has more injury question marks than a Riddler costume.

The last four offseasons have been interesting and important, but this one is especially so.

[RpR]

10 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Julien and Jeffers were #1 and #2 on the team in WAR and Julien so your statement makes absolutely no sense.  Also Julien's  defense has improved significantly on the defensive side.  Do you watch the games?  He was not a liability at the end of the season.  He improved enough that his OAA was 0 for the year after starting odd negatively.  Players can improve defensively.   You repeatedly prove that once you form an opinion about a player on defense they can't improve and they are worthless.   

Well then their combine WAR is 3.4 so you statement makes no sense.

He was not better a defender at the end than he was at the start; the only reason was that who ever scored the games babied some Twins  by not scoring a LOT of  screw-ups as errors.

Even the announcers mentioned said same more than once.

He is slow and awkward.

[Reptevia]

I think that the potential is there, but I certainly wouldn’t bet on an optimal outcome.