The Minnesota Twins Need to Replace 40% of the Value From Their 2023 Staff

I think I said this in a different post but Paddack should be able to pitch 100-120 innings this season of low to mid 3 ERA.  Put Varland in the pen / 6th or 7th starter and watch him get 5-8 starts with 40-50 relief appearances and 90-110 innings at a low 3. ERA and If you think Caneterino can step in.  He will need some time in the minors after the injury maybe by the All Star break we get 30-35 innings of 2.5  - 3.25 ERA we now have 220-265 of the 325 innings replaced internally.  Alcala could step up and a full season of Brock and  Theilbar gets us closer yet.  We should still try to find another starter who can provide 100-130 maybe 150-160 innings of low 3 ERA as well so we have extra insurance in case of injuries.  

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 But options are prone to start coming off the board quickly as the Winter Meetings get underway on Monday.

I think most worthwhile pitching options (FA or trades) won't happen until Yokomoto signs, where they can capitalize with the teams that lost out on him. I'll say again FA isn't the solution especially this year. Trades are the best solution.

Paddack can replace Maeda, There are a few internal options that can match Pagan's production. Gray had a career season with MN, so it's hard to replace. But IMO we could find another Lopez type of trade that could come close to match his production this year. Plus Lopez, Ryan, Ober & Varland (piggy-back with Paddack) will step up IMO.

Time for the offense to take a turn. I'm feeling pretty good about the possibilities for the Twins offense swinging a good stick on a consistent basis throughout the year. 

The pitching will be hard pressed to repeat their team statistics. The Twins have some good guys right now but need a push from a notable arm (or two). Chris Paddack could be good and if he can throw 110 innings of 4.00 ERA, that would be huge. Louie Varland is an unknown. He could pitch 180 innings of 4.10 ERA ball to pick up the team but he is also unpredictable. 

No doubt, the Twins are hanging right now with a real need to improve their starting staff. Perhaps Ohtani signs and everyone gets to work filling in their rosters.

5 hours ago, Parfigliano said:

150-160 innings of low 3 ERA is hard to find in baseball today.  Harder when you factor in everyone else is looking for the same thing and will pay more then TC.

The point was we already have most of what we lost in house already.  So instead of replacing 350 innings from Gray Maeda and Pagan to maybe needing 150 innings from an outside source.  I didn’t say it was easy or we could just that is what is likely needed to replace what we lost.  These loses were planned as last year the three made under 21 million.  Next year the 3 will make 47 million.  That’s a big jump for our payroll so good for Falvey and Levine for have contingencies in place in advance of these loses.  And the contingencies cost 2.535 million and league minimum.  I’m going to trust that there is a good chance we find that pitcher as long as we are not to handcuffed by finances to acquire the pitcher needed.  

We will roster up and pitchers will pitch. We have a great base of players so add an arm or two. Hopefully they out perform expectations.  
Didn’t we have 26 blown saves in ‘23?  How about we don’t do that again… 

6 hours ago, DocBauer said:

Here's the honest truth, and you know this Nick, the Twins were under .500 in games started by Gray and Maeda. I believe they were somewhere between 10 or 12 ish games under. 500 when they threw. And that is NOT a condemnation about how good they were! It's about the focus of the TEAM as a whole. Wins and losses are so arbitrary when you look at the BIG PICTURE that what the Twins are looking at is NOT replacing the performance of Gray and Maede directly, it's just about replacing QUALITY INNINGS. 

The pen for the 2023 Twins never stunk, based on overall numbers, even though it wasn't always consistent. Although, I'm not sure any pen is consistent every day/week/month. I don't think it's controversial to say the offense was very inconsistent in 2023. Had we had the second half offense for the entire season, with allowances for the staff being a little bit worse the 2nd half, the Twins might have easily been a 90+ win team rather easily. 

So here again is the truth,  Gray had probably the best season of his career in 2023. And I doubt the Twins will get any credit for nurturing him to do so. I love Gray and wish he was back in some alternate financial world, but does ANYONE believe he would replicate his career season again in 2024 at age 34? Bless him and the Cardinals and their huge contract.

I am a fan or Maeda because he is an amazing PITCHER. What he did in 2020 for the Twins should NEVER be understated. What he did in 2023...after some rest time to get strong and right...was about as good as he was in 2020. And I'm going to miss his personality as well as his presence on the mound. I applaud Detroit for signing him, but I just don't see the value in a 2yr deal for the Twins at this point. Detroit is stretching to add and compete. 

The Twins are looking to not only compete, but make noise!

Let's look at the rotation right NOW. Lopez is a solid #1, not YET a Verlander STUD, for example sake ONLY. Ryan has looked really good, but stunk when fighting an injury. I love his competive spirit, but he shouldn't have continued when hurt. I DON'T expect him to suddenly to be a STUD SP, but when he was healthy in the 1s half of 2023, he sure looked like a young arm that was taking the next step. Ober is MAYBE even better than a healthy Ryan. They both have a "bulldog" personality and some good stuff that is proven, so far. Paddack looks to be fully recovered and ready to build on the first 5 games he showed as a starter in 2022, and the flash he showed late in 2023.

If you look really close at 2023 and the loss of Gray and Maeda, even with a poor W/L record, what you're really looking at is quality IP and a CHANCE to win. A solid pen, and a better, season long offense, will make a difference. They SHOULD be adding SOMEONE to the rotation no doubt! But let us not forget than an inconsistent offense lead to many of the losses of Gray and Maeda. 

The Twins don't need an IP eater only, but they do need someone who can do that. Through FA...which I doubt...or a trade, which I expect, they will add a SOMEONE to throw consistently, with options. But a more consistent offense is maybe the key. The talent is there to do so. But continued improvement from from Ryan and Ober Is also part of that improvement. 

Absolutely. We can compete, but can we win as many games as last year, or even more? If that is going to happen, we need to add some quality arms, and do it well before spring training starts.  Hopefully, we can get full healthy seasons from Paddack, Ober, and Varland, but that will only get us so far.. 

8 hours ago, DocBauer said:

But a more consistent offense is maybe the key. 

Very good insight, Doc. I agree with everything you say. Just want to comment on this one comment.            The 1st half the Twins were absolutely terrible in hitting with RISP and even worse with bases loaded. I credit this to the Twins hitting philosophy where they got HRs when we didn't need them & SO in clutch situations that kills rallies. The big difference in the 2nd half was Royce Lewis. Our hitting with RISP & with the bases loaded drastically changed, thanks to him. 

I hope there'd be a change in hitting philosophy (I doubt it) even so we'll have Royce Lewis who is Royce Lewis & thanks to Paparesta we'll have Buxton, Correa, Kiriloff, Miranda & Polanco 100% with Kepler who finally found himself after the shift ban. We have a potent offensive that will begin in full force in '24 so we shouldn't have a problem in offense.

12 hours ago, Brandon said:

Paddack should be able to pitch 100-120 innings this season of low to mid 3 ERA.

He hasn't done that since his debut season in 2019. It's possible but an ERA of 4 is more likely.

12 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

I think most worthwhile pitching options (FA or trades) won't happen until Yokomoto signs

I agree that Yamamoto will set the market but Snell might sign before it is completely settled. Everyone else should sign soon thereafter. I think Cease and Glasnow both move before Burnes on the trade market.

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Hopefully they out perform expectations.

This is exactly what you want to avoid in offseason planning. They need a pitching staff that is competitive if everyone hits their median projection.

Then there's the conundrum that if you want to win in the playoffs it's better to concentrate that pitching performance in one or two dominant pitchers than spreading it out among the whole staff.

This is essentially the Twins FO task.  How to "effectively" replace those lost innings.  I have no problem with the plan being what it was...letting Gray, Maeda and Pagan walk.  Even if we weren't committed to reducing payroll going from $21 million in expenditures to $47 for 2024 just isn't efficient.

Paddack will absolutely step in for Maeda.  Remember, Maeda did not begin the season with the Twins.  I think Paddack can match him in IP.  

We've lost Pagan in the pen and he had a statistically good season.  But others have pointed out almost all his IP came in low leverage situations.  He earned some high leverage opportunities with his performance and when the pen had some injury issues (losing Stewart for an extended time for example) but Pagan's performance in those higher leverage stints was mixed.  

I'm excited to see Funderburk get more innings,  I was very impressed with him.  I'm also saying decades of the Rosary that Matt Canterino can actually stay healthy and will be up by May.  His arm is electric.  Envision another Duran type arm with 99-100 velocity instead of 104.  

But every pitching staff needs DEPTH.  You can mix and match your bullpen to a degree but nothing makes a managers job less stressful than having 5 to 6 guys he can count on to start games consistently.  With the team the Twins have now the J.A. Happ, Shoemaker, Bundy days have to be over.  I want a guy, maybe two, that have a proven track record of having been GOOD at some point in their careers.

There are a couple guys that fit this bill on the FA front.  Lucas Giolito, Trevor Bauer and to a lesser degree, Frankie Montas.  Giolito is a horse who eats innings.  He profiles as the top candidate at 29 y/o..  An elite K rate who has been a Cy Young contender in the past.  Can we get him back on track? 

Trevor Bauer, a former Cy Young winner with great stuff.  He's not a choir boy but MLB certainly did him wrong.  He's 32 years old so a 1 year to 3 year deal fits a timeline.  He was a decent pitcher early in his career but really started to put it together in Cleveland in 2017 & 2018.  He won the N.L. Cy Young in the Covid-19 shortened 2020 season and then in 17 games with the Dodgers in 2021 went 8-5 with a 2.59 ERA.   

Frankie Montas is a bigger risk but has great stuff.

The question will come down to cost.  What would Giolito, Bauer or Montas cost per season and is it a 1-year prove it deal or something along the lines of 3-years with options?  I can't see the Twins shelling out $25 million per year for Glasnow although I would be much more willing to give Glasnow 3-years $25 million per as opposed to Gray.  I base that on age and the pure "stuff" Glasnow has.  Sonny's strength was dependability.  Glasnow's weakness is his lack of it.

I would pay more for any of Giolito, Bauer or Montas than the Tigers signed Maeda for.  I would want more dependability if I was shelling out $25 million per season.  What is that level of spending that a Bauer or Giolito would fall into?  

So I think a trade for someone will happen first, and after most of the pitchers in FA are picked over, maybe the Twins get a Trevor Bauer for 2-3 years and $15 million per season.  

IMO, massive overpay for Williams--and I like him, alot.

I am not sure I would trade ERod straight up for him.  Same thing for Festa, possibly.

Polanco plus Gordan plus a lower prospect should be fair value for Williams, but I don't think Milwaukee is going to trade him at all.

On 12/5/2023 at 10:00 AM, DocBauer said:

Call me crazy, but I don't think Ober has peaked yet. Further, I think we all sometimes forget how good Ryan looked before his injury. Unlike some, I don't look for Ryan to ever be GREAT. But I think he's really good, and if he can continue to throw like he did for about 2/3 of 2023, well, he might not be "great", but he'd be damn good.

I think the Twins are very high on Paddack's recovery and potential. That fills me with confidence. While he wasn't outstanding, he flashes for 5 games after they acquired him, as they were tweaking his repitore. He certainly flashed from the pen after his recovery. I'm not expecting miracles in 2024 from him, but I'm hoping for 24/25 starts with IP monitored to keep him strong for the whole season. Maybe 120-130 IP if he's nursed along a bit?

I've already stated elsewhere I'd like to see Varland as a starter still.

You don't replace what Gray did last year. Doubtful Gray would replace Gray were he back. But I agree they need a solid arm to replace the IP lost by Gray. Just a solid arm to keep the rotation strong and give you a chance to win when he's on the mound. Could that be a 1yr FA? There's still some solid arms that might do so. But I'm still betting on a trade for someone younger with control and upside, similar to Lopez.

And I'd really, really like ONE good, solid arm for the pen to deepen it and make it go from good to potentially great. But that's either going to come via trade as well, or a rebound type candidate. This FO just doesn't believe in throwing big $ at relievers. And they're probably right, generally, in their philosophy. 

I hope you are right about both Ober and Ryan.  When they were throwing well earlier in the season, they both looked like legit rotation pieces. And I also still hold out hope for Varland in the rotation too. All in all, some positives to take from those arms. As for the bullpen, I agree in finding a bounce-back candidate, or converting a starter to a relief role. I also think that spending big money on a relief pitcher is a dodgy proposition most of the time.