Which Marginal Twins Pitchers Won't Make It Through the Offseason?

I agree with how you ordered this list. The first two you named SEEM like the easiest ones to move on from. 

While these are definitely guys on the fringes, it’s still a tough call.  The reality is that none of them may ever develop into an effective MLB pitcher, but with the ridiculous extreme variability of relief pitchers, it’s also possible that one of them (or more!) could be good to excellent as soon as next season.  Some will certainly be gone as roster space is taken by acquisitions, but two or three will likely stick around.  

For my money, SWR stays just based on age and being a part of a major trade, then it is Headrick based on left-handedness. I think Balazovic has the highest upside, but seems least likely to find it out of any of these guys, which makes him a little tantalizing (nice way of saying frustrating).  Winder and Sands are completely fungible and easily replaceable with pitchers just like them off of the free agent list or waiver wire. OR, I could be wrong and Sands or Winder will make the all star team next summer for the Kansas City Royals.  

As a potential add on to your list, do you really think Alcala will eventually put it together and make things happen? I know the Twins have decided he is worth tendering an offer to, but that might be wishful thinking at this point. 

At the moment I count 19 position players and 17 pitchers.  In past seasons this FO, like many of their counterparts, have entered the season with 21 or 22 pitchers under contract - there might even have been a moment or two where it was 23 or 24.  It would not surprise me at all if every one of the current 17 makes it through to at least Spring Training - if they need room for a 22nd arm they might by that time have traded away one of the veteran bats perpetually being discussed, or one of the marginal bats like Nick Gordon, before they would part with one of the pitchers mentioned in this article.

35 minutes ago, ashbury said:

At the moment I count 19 position players and 17 pitchers.  In past season this FO, like many of their counterparts, have entered the season with 21 or 22 pitchers under contract - there might even have been a moment or two where it was 23 or 24.  It would not surprise me at all if every one of the current 17 makes it through to at least Spring Training - if they need room for a 22nd arm they might by that time have traded away one of the veteran bats perpetually being discussed, or one of the marginal bats like Nick Gordon, before they would part with one of the pitchers mentioned in this article.

To tag on to Ash's comments, since the post season run ended the Twins have subtracted nine pitchers and added zero. They've subtracted five position players but added four from the minor leagues. It would seem that they would be more balanced by subtracting position players--Nick Gordon being option #1. 

Edit to add: if the club signs three pitchers to get to 39 or four pitchers to get to 40, then Balazovic, Winder, Alcalá and Sands could be in jeopardy. They do have other needs than pitching--right handed hitting corner OF, CF and maybe 1B, so I would expect a roster place or two would go to position players. 

You can never have too many pitchers. Twins used 27 pitchers last year, very likely all 5 of these pitchers will pitch for Twins next year at some point if still in Twins organization. 

6 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Balazovic is out of options so he is very much the first one out the door if they can find someone better.

Winder is bad at holding baserunners which makes him less effective. He's not Noah Syndergaard, who according to this really good article is the worst in baseball, but Winder was worst on the Twins last year. That needs to improve.

Met fan here.  When a Met he couldnt hold me.

5 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Considering the offseason approach to pitching right now, I am guessing all 5 of these names will still be here come Spring Training with an opportunity to make the club.

That itself is beyond sad...

I highly doubt it, these types of names are great sweeteners in trades. "I can fix him" except for with baseball players.

5 hours ago, Linus said:

I would hang on to SWR as he still has a chance. The rest of them are literally non factors. If we have to use any of them extensively in 2024 it will mean we have a crappy bullpen. Again.

Last year's bullpen ERA was 15th of 30 teams. Unless your definition of crappy is a team in the middle of MLB, that wasn't the Twins. OK, there are other measures, to be sure. They were 7/30 in WHIP, which is probably a better statistic than ERA anyway. 

Expecting at least one of Winder, Sands, Henriquez, Balazovich and Headrick to step up and help the bullpen last year almost ended in disaster.  40 man space is valuable and all 5 of those guys were a drag on the roster.  At least one of them was supposed to grow into the role and none of them did.

Henriquez is already off the 40 man and Winder seems to be in no man's land as well.  Balazovich might have a chance but with his control problems it seems unlikely.  That only leaves Sands and Headrick as legit options to me and both gave up hard contact too often.  

Festa, Ohl and Raya are right behind them and will need to be added next fall.  Those fringe guys need to figure it out fast or get passed by.

14 minutes ago, Linus said:

Okay. The main point is these guys are not a part of a good bullpen. 

The main point is that you said the Twins bullpen 'will be crappy. Again.' Except it wasn't.

11 hours ago, Dman said:

Expecting at least one of Winder, Sands, Henriquez, Balazovich and Headrick to step up and help the bullpen last year almost ended in disaster.  40 man space is valuable and all 5 of those guys were a drag on the roster.  At least one of them was supposed to grow into the role and none of them did.

Henriquez is already off the 40 man and Winder seems to be in no man's land as well.  Balazovich might have a chance but with his control problems it seems unlikely.  That only leaves Sands and Headrick as legit options to me and both gave up hard contact too often.  

Festa, Ohl and Raya are right behind them and will need to be added next fall.  Those fringe guys need to figure it out fast or get passed by.

I don't hold any extraordinary hope for any of the five listed. However, with bullpen arms, performance can change with little or no change in the pitcher's pitches. In limited work in St. Paul, Sands was verty effective. Headrick had some moments with the Twins and was bounced back and forth between starting and relieving. Woods Richardson finished strong (ish) at St. Paul and pitched all year at 22 years of age. 

1 hour ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

so you projected "will be crappy again" to last year and not 21 or 22 or any of time it has been crappy? Interesting

That's usually the way projections work - the most recent data point is generally most relevant. Why would you look at 2022? Only two current relief pitchers (Duran and Jax) were a part of that bullpen - no Thielbar, Stewart, Funderburk, etc. - guys who will be relevant for 2023. Who cares how Cano, Cotton, Duffey, Fulmer, Lopez, Megill did? 2021 is even more remote. 

When you're riding a dead horse,, dismount.