Which Marginal Twins Pitchers Won't Make It Through the Offseason?

[Nick Nelson]

The Twins have a handful of pitchers on their 40-man roster with tenuous holds on their spots. As the front office seeks to upgrade in the offseason, any one of these five players could find themselves at risk of being the odd man out.

Image courtesy of © Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

I'll start out by acknowledging what you already know: young and controllable arms are very valuable in baseball. For that reason, none of these decisions will or should be taken lightly. We've seen countless times how a small shift in pitching role, or a minor tweak to mechanics or pitch mix, can completely turn around a wayward pitcher. 

The Twins won't be eager to move on from any of these five, who have all shown some level of potential while pitching on the big-league stage.

With that said, the front office will likely be seeking to shake things up on the pitching staff this offseason, targeting new talents and projects to take on. There are currently four open spots on the 40-man roster, but those could be claimed quickly as the Twins fulfill needs in the rotation and position-player corps.

After being extended arbitration earlier this month, Jorge Alcala will likely be given every chance to overcome his injuries and make the 2024 bullpen, although that isn't a lock. The following five could be considered less likely to make it through the offseason without exiting the organization via DFA or minor trade.

 

 

Jordan Balazovic, RHP
Heading into the 2020 season, we had Balazovic ranked as the fifth-best prospect in the Twins system. He would move up to the status of No. 1 pitching prospect when Brusdar Graterol – ranked one spot ahead – was traded shortly thereafter. At the time, Balazovic was coming off a stellar year in Single-A, and at age 21 was on track to eventually impact an MLB rotation.

Unfortunately, since the lost COVID season, the righty has struggled with pretty much everything: control, hits, home runs. The 2023 season was especially tumultuous for Balazovic; he missed time in spring training after an off-the-field altercation, and once again got rocked at Triple-A.

He did break through to the majors with 18 appearances, but gave up 12 walks and five homers in 24 innings. A smokescreen of unsustainable early success gave way to the reality of an overmatched pitcher.

 

“Jordan was really good about identifying and being honest with the way he was throwing the ball,” manager Rocco Baldelli said when Balazovic was demoted in late August. “He said, ‘I just have to get in the zone.’ … I liked him taking that level of responsibility on. He was very direct and that felt good. He knows what he’s trying to accomplish.”

Balazovic proceeded to issue 11 walks with four strikeouts in 10 innings for the Saints after getting sent down. A brutal end to a brutal year that leaves the 25-year-old's future here in limbo. He still has some traits to like – namely a big frame and a fastball that can elevate in the zone – but it's fairly to easy imagine the front office moving on and picking a new arm to develop with this roster spot.

Josh Winder, RHP
The Twins were very high on Winder coming out of spring training in 2022, to the point that they surprisingly kept him on the Opening Day roster. He was impressive early on, before familiar shoulder issues cropped up and derailed his season. Winder has since been unable to shake those recurring right shoulder woes, and was limited to just 70 ineffective innings between the majors and Triple-A this season. 

He stands 6-foot-5 with a great slider, giving him a strong reliever profile, and even throws 95 to boot. The problem is that Winder's fastball, despite its velocity, has been a batting-practice pitch in the majors, yielding a .537 wOBA this year and .485 last year. Simply non-viable. He turned 27 in October.

 

Cole Sands, RHP
Sands has been up and down over the past couple of seasons, filling in as needed with 26 appearances (three starts) and 52 innings. The sum result has been a 4.99 ERA and 5.06 FIP – not good. He's in a very similar boat as Winder, running dangerously close to the "Quadruple-A player" designation at age 26 with no real record of MLB success.

I think the Twins will be a little more inclined to keep Sands over Winder because he is younger, has been healthier, and his fastball at least shows signs of being usable. Plus Sands has a really interesting secondary mix that is worth building around as a reliever. 

 

Brent Headrick, LHP
The left-hander was a somewhat surprising add to the 40-man roster last offseason, in that he wasn't really on the prospect radar. The Twins liked his ability to factor as immediate major-league depth, and they were valid in assessing him as such. Headrick made 14 appearances for the big-league club in 2023, handling the load capably at times.

Still, his performance could hardy be described as impressive. Headrick finished with a 6.31 ERA and 6.10 FIP in 26 innings for the Twins. His performance in Triple-A also wasn't great (4.68 ERA in 75 innings) but as a hard-throwing lefty who can provide length and strike people out, I don't think Headrick is especially likely to exit.

Simeon Woods Richardson, RHP
I don't really believe Woods Richardson is at risk of being dumped this offseason, which is why he's at the bottom of this list. He's young enough to have upside, and seasoned enough to offer big-league depth. But the theoretical upside in his game is fading fast.

Woods Richardson's 2023 season was discouraging in almost every way. His velocity dwindled, his stuff lagged and his numbers were dreadful, even though he was seemingly healthy throughout the season. To put his 19.3% K-rate at Triple-A in some context, it was lower than Randy Dobnak's. 

 

The right-hander is still only 23 and I suspect the Twins would at least let him loose in a full-time relief role before letting him loose. That said, it wouldn't surprise me if he was a toss-in for some trade package this offseason.

Managing pitchers like these is a delicate balance. You never want to give up too early, but holding too long can mean costing yourself opportunities to roster and develop different arms. We'll see where the Twins land this offseason on these five fringe figures in the team's pitching plans.

 

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[Cory Engelhardt]

I agree with how you ordered this list. The first two you named SEEM like the easiest ones to move on from. 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

While these are definitely guys on the fringes, it’s still a tough call.  The reality is that none of them may ever develop into an effective MLB pitcher, but with the ridiculous extreme variability of relief pitchers, it’s also possible that one of them (or more!) could be good to excellent as soon as next season.  Some will certainly be gone as roster space is taken by acquisitions, but two or three will likely stick around.  

For my money, SWR stays just based on age and being a part of a major trade, then it is Headrick based on left-handedness. I think Balazovic has the highest upside, but seems least likely to find it out of any of these guys, which makes him a little tantalizing (nice way of saying frustrating).  Winder and Sands are completely fungible and easily replaceable with pitchers just like them off of the free agent list or waiver wire. OR, I could be wrong and Sands or Winder will make the all star team next summer for the Kansas City Royals.  

[Rod Carews Birthday]

As a potential add on to your list, do you really think Alcala will eventually put it together and make things happen? I know the Twins have decided he is worth tendering an offer to, but that might be wishful thinking at this point. 

[DJL44]

Balazovic is out of options so he is very much the first one out the door if they can find someone better.

Winder is bad at holding baserunners which makes him less effective. He's not Noah Syndergaard, who according to this really good article is the worst in baseball, but Winder was worst on the Twins last year. That needs to improve.

[TwinsDr2021]

It kind of seems like pitchers that don't debut until their mid 20's don't generally work out (as starters and maybe even relief pitchers)? hmm, that doesn't seem like the narrative of the comments on this site.

I think all of these pitchers will have some success in the majors at some point, but all seem like guys that you don't waste a 40 man spot on unless your team is terrible and are looking for some magic in a bottle to flip them at the deadline.

 

[tony&rodney]

Some of these guys may benefit from a change of scenery. Balazovic is not long for the roster due to his lack of options. I would think that Winder, Headrick, and Woods Richardson have some interest from other teams as depth or change of scenery pitchers.

[Mike Sixel]

IIRC, SWR's stuff is actually quite good....as measured by Stuff+.....it is other things that cause the issues. He's 22/3.....I hope the team doesn't give up on him (they won't). That said, I had hoped he was a solid #3 when acquired, now my expectations are lower.

[ashbury]

At the moment I count 19 position players and 17 pitchers.  In past seasons this FO, like many of their counterparts, have entered the season with 21 or 22 pitchers under contract - there might even have been a moment or two where it was 23 or 24.  It would not surprise me at all if every one of the current 17 makes it through to at least Spring Training - if they need room for a 22nd arm they might by that time have traded away one of the veteran bats perpetually being discussed, or one of the marginal bats like Nick Gordon, before they would part with one of the pitchers mentioned in this article.

[DJL44]

22 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

IIRC, SWR's stuff is actually quite good....as measured by Stuff+.....it is other things that cause the issues. He's 22/3.....I hope the team doesn't give up on him (they won't). That said, I had hoped he was a solid #3 when acquired, now my expectations are lower.

He's currently the #6 starter on the depth chart. If they get rid of him they don't have a 6th starter on the depth chart.

[stringer bell]

35 minutes ago, ashbury said:

At the moment I count 19 position players and 17 pitchers.  In past season this FO, like many of their counterparts, have entered the season with 21 or 22 pitchers under contract - there might even have been a moment or two where it was 23 or 24.  It would not surprise me at all if every one of the current 17 makes it through to at least Spring Training - if they need room for a 22nd arm they might by that time have traded away one of the veteran bats perpetually being discussed, or one of the marginal bats like Nick Gordon, before they would part with one of the pitchers mentioned in this article.

To tag on to Ash's comments, since the post season run ended the Twins have subtracted nine pitchers and added zero. They've subtracted five position players but added four from the minor leagues. It would seem that they would be more balanced by subtracting position players--Nick Gordon being option #1. 

Edit to add: if the club signs three pitchers to get to 39 or four pitchers to get to 40, then Balazovic, Winder, Alcalá and Sands could be in jeopardy. They do have other needs than pitching--right handed hitting corner OF, CF and maybe 1B, so I would expect a roster place or two would go to position players. 

[4twinsJA]

You can never have too many pitchers. Twins used 27 pitchers last year, very likely all 5 of these pitchers will pitch for Twins next year at some point if still in Twins organization. 

[Fatbat]

I’d bet they all stay and pitch for the twins at some point unless traded before ST.  A DFA will only happen if they suck really bad and then said sucky pitcher will likely clear waivers. At worst, the Saints will have somewhat solid hurlers. 

[jmlease1]

Balazovic is on the shakiest ground. In addition to his ineffectiveness and recent injury history, the team was unquestionably unhappy with him getting into a bar fight (even if it wasn't his fault and he didn't start anything). Hard to say he has any value in a deal, so it's really a matter of whether or not he can come into camp healthy enough and pitching well enough to grab one of the last slots on the roster, otherwise he's probably going to get cut.

The order here makes a lot of sense to me. I hope Winder is going to Driveline or somewhere like that in the offseason to try to find a better fastball result. He can't survive with the one he's got.

I'm still a believer in SWR, who I think will be in line to start for the Twins in 2024 at some point. We'll see how his offseason goes, but he's shown things that make me awfully reluctant to give up on him at his age. (I'm sure he'll get a shot in the bullpen before that)

Sadly, all of these are distressed assets that don't have much value in a trade right now.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

Considering the offseason approach to pitching right now, I am guessing all 5 of these names will still be here come Spring Training with an opportunity to make the club.

That itself is beyond sad...

[DJL44]

1 minute ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Considering the offseason approach to pitching right now, I am guessing all 5 of these names will still be here come Spring Training with an opportunity to make the club.

That itself is beyond sad...

No kidding. I've already seen better pitchers than Balazovic non-tendered.

[Major League Ready]

We have 4 open spots and 2-3 of Polanco / Kepler / Vazquez / Farmer / Gordon / Miranda / Severino are very likely to be traded.  It would not be surprising if a couple of the pitchers mentioned here were traded too.  I don't see these guys getting bumped off the 40 man to make room for additions.

[Linus]

I would hang on to SWR as he still has a chance. The rest of them are literally non factors. If we have to use any of them extensively in 2024 it will mean we have a crappy bullpen. Again.
More proof that prospects fail at every level with the jump to the big leagues being the hardest. When Balazovic was having a very hot and miss season at AA I posted something to the effect that pitchers who end up being good in the majors typically don’t have the ups and downs he had in AA. This observation was highly unpopular but it’s really hard to make the show and stay there. 

[Brandon]

Winder and Sands were usable as 7th and 8th members of the bullpen last year and make near league minimum.  The others will also make league minimum.  Balazovich is the only one I see and I can see the Twins offering a nice enough split contract to be able to keep him if he doesn’t make the team.

[nicksaviking]

Most starter-turned-relievers don't find success until their first full season away from the conversion, so the Twins would be missing out on that test with all of these guys. They really need to start this transition with the fringy starters earlier before they start to see more Liam Hendricks' pop up on other teams rosters.

Balazovic should be the first to go though since he isn't able to continue the experiment in St. Paul.

[Parfigliano]

6 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Balazovic is out of options so he is very much the first one out the door if they can find someone better.

Winder is bad at holding baserunners which makes him less effective. He's not Noah Syndergaard, who according to this really good article is the worst in baseball, but Winder was worst on the Twins last year. That needs to improve.

Met fan here.  When a Met he couldnt hold me.

[Jocko87]

5 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Considering the offseason approach to pitching right now, I am guessing all 5 of these names will still be here come Spring Training with an opportunity to make the club.

That itself is beyond sad...

I highly doubt it, these types of names are great sweeteners in trades. "I can fix him" except for with baseball players.

[arby58]

5 hours ago, Linus said:

I would hang on to SWR as he still has a chance. The rest of them are literally non factors. If we have to use any of them extensively in 2024 it will mean we have a crappy bullpen. Again.

Last year's bullpen ERA was 15th of 30 teams. Unless your definition of crappy is a team in the middle of MLB, that wasn't the Twins. OK, there are other measures, to be sure. They were 7/30 in WHIP, which is probably a better statistic than ERA anyway. 

[Dman]

Expecting at least one of Winder, Sands, Henriquez, Balazovich and Headrick to step up and help the bullpen last year almost ended in disaster.  40 man space is valuable and all 5 of those guys were a drag on the roster.  At least one of them was supposed to grow into the role and none of them did.

Henriquez is already off the 40 man and Winder seems to be in no man's land as well.  Balazovich might have a chance but with his control problems it seems unlikely.  That only leaves Sands and Headrick as legit options to me and both gave up hard contact too often.  

Festa, Ohl and Raya are right behind them and will need to be added next fall.  Those fringe guys need to figure it out fast or get passed by.

[Linus]

10 minutes ago, arby58 said:

Last year's bullpen ERA was 15th of 30 teams. Unless your definition of crappy is a team in the middle of MLB, that wasn't the Twins. OK, there are other measures, to be sure. They were 7/30 in WHIP, which is probably a better statistic than ERA anyway. 

Okay. The main point is these guys are not a part of a good bullpen. 

[arby58]

14 minutes ago, Linus said:

Okay. The main point is these guys are not a part of a good bullpen. 

The main point is that you said the Twins bullpen 'will be crappy. Again.' Except it wasn't.

[stringer bell]

11 hours ago, Dman said:

Expecting at least one of Winder, Sands, Henriquez, Balazovich and Headrick to step up and help the bullpen last year almost ended in disaster.  40 man space is valuable and all 5 of those guys were a drag on the roster.  At least one of them was supposed to grow into the role and none of them did.

Henriquez is already off the 40 man and Winder seems to be in no man's land as well.  Balazovich might have a chance but with his control problems it seems unlikely.  That only leaves Sands and Headrick as legit options to me and both gave up hard contact too often.  

Festa, Ohl and Raya are right behind them and will need to be added next fall.  Those fringe guys need to figure it out fast or get passed by.

I don't hold any extraordinary hope for any of the five listed. However, with bullpen arms, performance can change with little or no change in the pitcher's pitches. In limited work in St. Paul, Sands was verty effective. Headrick had some moments with the Twins and was bounced back and forth between starting and relieving. Woods Richardson finished strong (ish) at St. Paul and pitched all year at 22 years of age. 

[Major League Ready]

It's so hard to say with BP guys so I am glad we have room for now to take another look at these guys.  They can stay on the 40-man until we need room.  Who knows ... maybe Winder can tweak his delivery at Driveline as JMlease1 suggested and Sands does have great movement on his slider.  He just has to learn how to avoid the long ball.  There are quite a few guys coming up behind them that hopefully become the story of 2024.  If one or two of these guys breakout, great!

[mikelink45]

I have to change the conversation a bit - these are arms with potential.  Balazovic was a lock for MLB rotation at one point in our prospect rankings.  Winder looked like he had turned the corner and would be an excellent major league arm.  SWR has been talked about every year since we got him. Sands never looked like the top candidate the be team kept bringing him up and Headrick is really struggling. 

That being the case the question I have is who is in charge of developing these arms?  Who is watching out for them in the minors?  Do we have the right coaches and methods?  

I don't know the answer but these are five who are ready to fall through the cracks and we next need to see our younger pitchers progress. 

[DJL44]

5 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

I have to change the conversation a bit - these are arms with potential.  Balazovic was a lock for MLB rotation at one point in our prospect rankings.  Winder looked like he had turned the corner and would be an excellent major league arm.  SWR has been talked about every year since we got him. Sands never looked like the top candidate the be team kept bringing him up and Headrick is really struggling. 

That being the case the question I have is who is in charge of developing these arms?  Who is watching out for them in the minors?  Do we have the right coaches and methods?  

I don't know the answer but these are five who are ready to fall through the cracks and we next need to see our younger pitchers progress. 

Woods-Richardson is the only one who had any kind of national notoriety. He's still young enough to have a chance in the rotation. Balazovic had upside but was always seen as a high risk to achieve it. If he was a "lock for the MLB rotation" he should have been rated a top 50 prospect in MLB. Sands and Headrick look like they could contribute to the bullpen which was their projection from the start. I think you may have had too high of expectations.

Most pitching prospects fail. The Twins have done better than some orgs at converting mid-round picks into useful pitchers (see Varland and Ober) and Festa looks like another that could do the same. They haven't spent top picks on pitchers other than Petty, Prielipp and Soto. They have done almost nothing bringing in pitchers through international free agency.