Which Marginal Twins Pitchers Won't Make It Through the Offseason?

[arby58]

1 hour ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

so you projected "will be crappy again" to last year and not 21 or 22 or any of time it has been crappy? Interesting

That's usually the way projections work - the most recent data point is generally most relevant. Why would you look at 2022? Only two current relief pitchers (Duran and Jax) were a part of that bullpen - no Thielbar, Stewart, Funderburk, etc. - guys who will be relevant for 2023. Who cares how Cano, Cotton, Duffey, Fulmer, Lopez, Megill did? 2021 is even more remote. 

When you're riding a dead horse,, dismount.

[Otaknam]

I wouldn’t give up on Winder, SWR, Sands, and Balazovic until they are tried strictly in the bull pen. Some guys thrive in that situation and have an uptick in their fastball. And they usually only need one other above average pitch to be effective. Former Twin Liam Hendricks comes to mind. He became an elite closer for several years. 

[DocBauer]

There are 4 spots on the 40 man right now, and at.least 1 or 2 trades will take place, and I'm pretty sure 1 or 2 FA will be signed come January, first of February.  Even still, a couple guys will probably come off the 40 man in trades, so all arms listed in the OP are probably safe to begin 2024. But most of them have a tenuous hold on a job based on 2023, to be sure.

Balazovic was a top 100 prospect coming off of his 2021 and headed in to 2022. That wasn't long ago. Good velocity, great breaking ball, OK change, just needed some polish. Then a bad ankle he tried to throw through, awful numbers, lack of control, etc, though he looked better and healthier at the close of '22. He arrived early last year, fit and ready to go. I have no clue to what degree his broken jaw incident affected him. He looked pretty solid initially, tossed some good innings, but finished awful at both levels. STILL, a top 100 player just 2 seasons ago doesn't go away this soon. 100% to begin camp this year, a season to begin an adjustment to the pen, you keep that arm and work with it for 2024.

Winder is almost as disappointing as Balazovic. Part of his issue has been shoulder problems that initiated the pen move. The slider is there. But despite sitting 95 ish comfortably and hitting 97 pretty consistently, his FB keeps getting drilled. But as I recall, late last year he was throwing more of a sinker, at the same velocity, and getting much better results. If he can continue down that path, he'll have K's and ground balls to make him a quality pen option. But time is not on his side. 

The thing about Sands is, he threw way better than either Balazovic or Winder, but between level bouncing and sitting on the Twins bench for a week at a time, often, without being used, he wasn't given a chance to really develop/acclimate to his new role in the pen. Somehow, he still tossed around 50 IP, and while not exactly good, his numbers were better than Balazovic or Winder. His FB plays up some in the pen and his curveball is just NASTY. He hasn't stepped forward yet, but he's also been handled oddly and 2024 was his initial "conversion" season. I'm actually a little optimistic to see what he might do this upcoming season.

In regard to Brent Headrick, he wasn't really supposed to pitch for the Twins this season, or at least, not as much as he did. He split 2022 between A+ (2/3) and AA (1/3). He was dominate at A and OK at AA. But he showed enough potential the Twins added him to the 40 man. He had a nice spring and a solid start to the season, flashing at times. The opposition must have figured him out as his 2nd half wasn't very good, for the most part, beyond a couple flashes here and there. But as a rookie with a 1/3 of a AA season under his belt to begin with, I'm not sure what was expected. He obviously needs to make adjustments. I'd like to see the St Paul rotation deep enough he wouldn't be needed there and just let him pitch out of the pen. I think he's shown enough potential to believe he might have a solid future there. But he's in no danger of being let go any time soon.

Never been a fan of SWR as I just never saw what the scouts did to make him such a top draftee/prospect. (As if I'm any kind of expert). He made me a believer following 2022. Looked like he was really settling in and taking a step forward. So what the hell happened in 2023? He was basically awful. What happened? He did start to look much, much better after he began to follow an opener. And IIRC, his last few appearances were again as a primary starter. His last couple of months give me hope again, and he's still too young to be impatient with at this time, but he'd better regain his previous form or he's moving to the pen in '25.

Again, nobody going anywhere just yet, there's still some good stuff in all of them to want to keep working with for now. But the original order of the OP is about right in who goes 1st, though there might be some debate between Balazovic and Winder.

Since they have been mentioned previously as well, Alcala gets 2024 to prove himself once and for all. Pre injury, he gave the appearance of someone finally settling in to his role in 2021. Two lost years will really dampen an outlook, but looking healthy for the first time in a while and with his velocity back up in to the high 90's to close out last season, he was a smart add to the 40 man.

I'm still surprised by the removal of Henriquez, especially over some of the other arms discussed. He's younger and began last year recovering from an injury. Did they just draw a name out of a cap? Plus, he seemed to finish '23 pretty strong. Remember an OP here on TD about whether he deserved a promotion? I haven't heard anything about him re-signing or going elsewhere, but I'd like to see him back with the Saints, healthy, and given a chance to see if he can take another step. 

 

[JD-TWINS]

On 11/27/2023 at 3:02 PM, Major League Ready said:

We have 4 open spots and 2-3 of Polanco / Kepler / Vazquez / Farmer / Gordon / Miranda / Severino are very likely to be traded.  It would not be surprising if a couple of the pitchers mentioned here were traded too.  I don't see these guys getting bumped off the 40 man to make room for additions.

Agreed & maybe toss Larnach into the maybe traded group. I don’t see any others getting DFA’d either.

[JD-TWINS]

9 hours ago, DocBauer said:

There are 4 spots on the 40 man right now, and at.least 1 or 2 trades will take place, and I'm pretty sure 1 or 2 FA will be signed come January, first of February.  Even still, a couple guys will probably come off the 40 man in trades, so all arms listed in the OP are probably safe to begin 2024. But most of them have a tenuous hold on a job based on 2023, to be sure.

Balazovic was a top 100 prospect coming off of his 2021 and headed in to 2022. That wasn't long ago. Good velocity, great breaking ball, OK change, just needed some polish. Then a bad ankle he tried to throw through, awful numbers, lack of control, etc, though he looked better and healthier at the close of '22. He arrived early last year, fit and ready to go. I have no clue to what degree his broken jaw incident affected him. He looked pretty solid initially, tossed some good innings, but finished awful at both levels. STILL, a top 100 player just 2 seasons ago doesn't go away this soon. 100% to begin camp this year, a season to begin an adjustment to the pen, you keep that arm and work with it for 2024.

Winder is almost as disappointing as Balazovic. Part of his issue has been shoulder problems that initiated the pen move. The slider is there. But despite sitting 95 ish comfortably and hitting 97 pretty consistently, his FB keeps getting drilled. But as I recall, late last year he was throwing more of a sinker, at the same velocity, and getting much better results. If he can continue down that path, he'll have K's and ground balls to make him a quality pen option. But time is not on his side. 

The thing about Sands is, he threw way better than either Balazovic or Winder, but between level bouncing and sitting on the Twins bench for a week at a time, often, without being used, he wasn't given a chance to really develop/acclimate to his new role in the pen. Somehow, he still tossed around 50 IP, and while not exactly good, his numbers were better than Balazovic or Winder. His FB plays up some in the pen and his curveball is just NASTY. He hasn't stepped forward yet, but he's also been handled oddly and 2024 was his initial "conversion" season. I'm actually a little optimistic to see what he might do this upcoming season.

In regard to Brent Headrick, he wasn't really supposed to pitch for the Twins this season, or at least, not as much as he did. He split 2022 between A+ (2/3) and AA (1/3). He was dominate at A and OK at AA. But he showed enough potential the Twins added him to the 40 man. He had a nice spring and a solid start to the season, flashing at times. The opposition must have figured him out as his 2nd half wasn't very good, for the most part, beyond a couple flashes here and there. But as a rookie with a 1/3 of a AA season under his belt to begin with, I'm not sure what was expected. He obviously needs to make adjustments. I'd like to see the St Paul rotation deep enough he wouldn't be needed there and just let him pitch out of the pen. I think he's shown enough potential to believe he might have a solid future there. But he's in no danger of being let go any time soon.

Never been a fan of SWR as I just never saw what the scouts did to make him such a top draftee/prospect. (As if I'm any kind of expert). He made me a believer following 2022. Looked like he was really settling in and taking a step forward. So what the hell happened in 2023? He was basically awful. What happened? He did start to look much, much better after he began to follow an opener. And IIRC, his last few appearances were again as a primary starter. His last couple of months give me hope again, and he's still too young to be impatient with at this time, but he'd better regain his previous form or he's moving to the pen in '25.

Again, nobody going anywhere just yet, there's still some good stuff in all of them to want to keep working with for now. But the original order of the OP is about right in who goes 1st, though there might be some debate between Balazovic and Winder.

Since they have been mentioned previously as well, Alcala gets 2024 to prove himself once and for all. Pre injury, he gave the appearance of someone finally settling in to his role in 2021. Two lost years will really dampen an outlook, but looking healthy for the first time in a while and with his velocity back up in to the high 90's to close out last season, he was a smart add to the 40 man.

I'm still surprised by the removal of Henriquez, especially over some of the other arms discussed. He's younger and began last year recovering from an injury. Did they just draw a name out of a cap? Plus, he seemed to finish '23 pretty strong. Remember an OP here on TD about whether he deserved a promotion? I haven't heard anything about him re-signing or going elsewhere, but I'd like to see him back with the Saints, healthy, and given a chance to see if he can take another step. 

 

Henriquez was a surprise to me as well - I actually thought he might be ahead of Alcala at this point.