The Minnesota Twins Need to Replace 40% of the Value From Their 2023 Staff

[Nick Nelson]

Within the span of one week, Minnesota's top three free agent pitchers all just came off the board, leaving a definitive and sizable void remaining in the Twins staff. 

How will the front office make up for the losses of Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda, and Emilio Pagan, who combined to account for nearly half of the value delivered by Twins pitchers this past season?

Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson, Erik Williams, Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

The story of the 2023 Twins pitching staff was the gains they made following an underwhelming 2022 campaign: From one year to the next, Minnesota improved from 20th among MLB teams in fWAR (10.7) to fourth (19.7). 

Conversely, the story of this offseason so far for the Twins pitching staff has been losses -- specifically, the confirmed departures of three pitchers who were instrumental in driving this year-over-year improvement. 

Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda and Emilio Pagan all took huge steps forward in terms of production, combining for 7.9 fWAR between the three of them. That number figure accounts for nearly the entirety of the team's 9-WAR increase from below-average in 2022 (10.7) to elite in 2023 (19.7), and it represents 40% of Minnesota's total pitching WAR this past season.

Given how they contributed to one of the league's best pitching staffs, it comes as no surprise that these three free agents were all in high demand, and among the first to come off the market. Each received a deal that exceeded many expectations, and kept the cost-cutting Twins from seriously pursuing reunions with any of the three. 

Now, they're tasked with making up for all that lost pitching value.

In some ways, these players and their own journeys represent the path to another top-tier pitching staff next year. The Twins need other players to step up and break through in the same ways as this trio just did:

• In 2022, Gray was more on the precipice of being a dependable frontline starter, battling with durability issues that limited him to 120 innings. In 2023 he pulled it all together and had a career year. Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober seem to currently be in similar places to where Gray was a year ago, with the the ingredients to reach another level if they can stay healthy and lock in.
• In 2022, Maeda didn't pitch at all. He was recovering from Tommy John surgery, which set him up for a return in 2023 that was, overall, good enough to earn the 35-year-old a $24 million contract in free agency. Here the parallel to Chris Paddack is self-evident, and Paddack has a head-start on where Maeda was a year ago, in that he already returned to the major-league mound successfully.
• In 2022, Pagan... well, we know how things went for him. Despite having enough raw stuff and ability to preserve the team's faith, he repeatedly imploded on the mound in big spots. But the volatility of relief pitching works both ways, and sometimes it really does click in almost an instant for talented arms. There are several other players in Minnesota's bullpen mix who could feasibly make a Pagan-like leap next year, and the impending return of flame-thrower Matt Canterino looms large in this regard.

Of course, even if the Twins are able to make up for some of these key free agency losses via internal improvements, there is no denying that they need to look outside in order to replenish their pitching staff, which has a few existing weak spots in addition to its clear openings. 

This front office has proven it has no appetite for outbidding the field to buy high in free agency. If they make acquisitions on this front, it will likely be of the lower-caliber variety (think J.A. Happ) or a high-risk venture with some reward.

More likely the Twins will use the same avenue to try and replace these pitchers as they used to acquire all three in the first place: trading for multiple years of control at a reasonable price point. In each case the front office dealt from its pitching depth (Chase Petty, Brusdar Graterol, Taylor Rogers) to target arms that could factor into their plans -- including Paddack. This plan comes with its own premium but it can be financially feasible given the team's annoying constraint.

How close can they come to replacing the upside and stability they just lost, and what will they have to give up to do so? These are the questions looming as the Twins reckon with the finality of Gray, Maeda and Pagan officially moving on, leaving critical roles in the rotation and bullpen vacant. 

I suspect that as usual the Twins front office will get creative and show patience. But options are prone to start coming off the board quickly as the Winter Meetings get underway on Monday.

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[Brandon]

I think I said this in a different post but Paddack should be able to pitch 100-120 innings this season of low to mid 3 ERA.  Put Varland in the pen / 6th or 7th starter and watch him get 5-8 starts with 40-50 relief appearances and 90-110 innings at a low 3. ERA and If you think Caneterino can step in.  He will need some time in the minors after the injury maybe by the All Star break we get 30-35 innings of 2.5  - 3.25 ERA we now have 220-265 of the 325 innings replaced internally.  Alcala could step up and a full season of Brock and  Theilbar gets us closer yet.  We should still try to find another starter who can provide 100-130 maybe 150-160 innings of low 3 ERA as well so we have extra insurance in case of injuries.  

[Parfigliano]

32 minutes ago, Brandon said:

I think I said this in a different post but Paddack should be able to pitch 100-120 innings this season of low to mid 3 ERA.  Put Varland in the pen / 6th or 7th starter and watch him get 5-8 starts with 40-50 relief appearances and 90-110 innings at a low 3. ERA and If you think Caneterino can step in.  He will need some time in the minors after the injury maybe by the All Star break we get 30-35 innings of 2.5  - 3.25 ERA we now have 220-265 of the 325 innings replaced internally.  Alcala could step up and a full season of Brock and  Theilbar gets us closer yet.  We should still try to find another starter who can provide 100-130 maybe 150-160 innings of low 3 ERA as well so we have extra insurance in case of injuries.  

150-160 innings of low 3 ERA is hard to find in baseball today.  Harder when you factor in everyone else is looking for the same thing and will pay more then TC.

[Doctor Gast]

Quote

 But options are prone to start coming off the board quickly as the Winter Meetings get underway on Monday.

I think most worthwhile pitching options (FA or trades) won't happen until Yokomoto signs, where they can capitalize with the teams that lost out on him. I'll say again FA isn't the solution especially this year. Trades are the best solution.

Paddack can replace Maeda, There are a few internal options that can match Pagan's production. Gray had a career season with MN, so it's hard to replace. But IMO we could find another Lopez type of trade that could come close to match his production this year. Plus Lopez, Ryan, Ober & Varland (piggy-back with Paddack) will step up IMO.

[tony&rodney]

Time for the offense to take a turn. I'm feeling pretty good about the possibilities for the Twins offense swinging a good stick on a consistent basis throughout the year. 

The pitching will be hard pressed to repeat their team statistics. The Twins have some good guys right now but need a push from a notable arm (or two). Chris Paddack could be good and if he can throw 110 innings of 4.00 ERA, that would be huge. Louie Varland is an unknown. He could pitch 180 innings of 4.10 ERA ball to pick up the team but he is also unpredictable. 

No doubt, the Twins are hanging right now with a real need to improve their starting staff. Perhaps Ohtani signs and everyone gets to work filling in their rosters.

[DocBauer]

Here's the honest truth, and you know this Nick, the Twins were under .500 in games started by Gray and Maeda. I believe they were somewhere between 10 or 12 ish games under. 500 when they threw. And that is NOT a condemnation about how good they were! It's about the focus of the TEAM as a whole. Wins and losses are so arbitrary when you look at the BIG PICTURE that what the Twins are looking at is NOT replacing the performance of Gray and Maede directly, it's just about replacing QUALITY INNINGS. 

The pen for the 2023 Twins never stunk, based on overall numbers, even though it wasn't always consistent. Although, I'm not sure any pen is consistent every day/week/month. I don't think it's controversial to say the offense was very inconsistent in 2023. Had we had the second half offense for the entire season, with allowances for the staff being a little bit worse the 2nd half, the Twins might have easily been a 90+ win team rather easily. 

So here again is the truth,  Gray had probably the best season of his career in 2023. And I doubt the Twins will get any credit for nurturing him to do so. I love Gray and wish he was back in some alternate financial world, but does ANYONE believe he would replicate his career season again in 2024 at age 34? Bless him and the Cardinals and their huge contract.

I am a fan or Maeda because he is an amazing PITCHER. What he did in 2020 for the Twins should NEVER be understated. What he did in 2023...after some rest time to get strong and right...was about as good as he was in 2020. And I'm going to miss his personality as well as his presence on the mound. I applaud Detroit for signing him, but I just don't see the value in a 2yr deal for the Twins at this point. Detroit is stretching to add and compete. 

The Twins are looking to not only compete, but make noise!

Let's look at the rotation right NOW. Lopez is a solid #1, not YET a Verlander STUD, for example sake ONLY. Ryan has looked really good, but stunk when fighting an injury. I love his competive spirit, but he shouldn't have continued when hurt. I DON'T expect him to suddenly to be a STUD SP, but when he was healthy in the 1s half of 2023, he sure looked like a young arm that was taking the next step. Ober is MAYBE even better than a healthy Ryan. They both have a "bulldog" personality and some good stuff that is proven, so far. Paddack looks to be fully recovered and ready to build on the first 5 games he showed as a starter in 2022, and the flash he showed late in 2023.

If you look really close at 2023 and the loss of Gray and Maeda, even with a poor W/L record, what you're really looking at is quality IP and a CHANCE to win. A solid pen, and a better, season long offense, will make a difference. They SHOULD be adding SOMEONE to the rotation no doubt! But let us not forget than an inconsistent offense lead to many of the losses of Gray and Maeda. 

The Twins don't need an IP eater only, but they do need someone who can do that. Through FA...which I doubt...or a trade, which I expect, they will add a SOMEONE to throw consistently, with options. But a more consistent offense is maybe the key. The talent is there to do so. But continued improvement from from Ryan and Ober Is also part of that improvement. 

[Brandon]

5 hours ago, Parfigliano said:

150-160 innings of low 3 ERA is hard to find in baseball today.  Harder when you factor in everyone else is looking for the same thing and will pay more then TC.

The point was we already have most of what we lost in house already.  So instead of replacing 350 innings from Gray Maeda and Pagan to maybe needing 150 innings from an outside source.  I didn’t say it was easy or we could just that is what is likely needed to replace what we lost.  These loses were planned as last year the three made under 21 million.  Next year the 3 will make 47 million.  That’s a big jump for our payroll so good for Falvey and Levine for have contingencies in place in advance of these loses.  And the contingencies cost 2.535 million and league minimum.  I’m going to trust that there is a good chance we find that pitcher as long as we are not to handcuffed by finances to acquire the pitcher needed.  

[Fatbat]

We will roster up and pitchers will pitch. We have a great base of players so add an arm or two. Hopefully they out perform expectations.  
Didn’t we have 26 blown saves in ‘23?  How about we don’t do that again… 

[Doctor Wu]

6 hours ago, DocBauer said:

Here's the honest truth, and you know this Nick, the Twins were under .500 in games started by Gray and Maeda. I believe they were somewhere between 10 or 12 ish games under. 500 when they threw. And that is NOT a condemnation about how good they were! It's about the focus of the TEAM as a whole. Wins and losses are so arbitrary when you look at the BIG PICTURE that what the Twins are looking at is NOT replacing the performance of Gray and Maede directly, it's just about replacing QUALITY INNINGS. 

The pen for the 2023 Twins never stunk, based on overall numbers, even though it wasn't always consistent. Although, I'm not sure any pen is consistent every day/week/month. I don't think it's controversial to say the offense was very inconsistent in 2023. Had we had the second half offense for the entire season, with allowances for the staff being a little bit worse the 2nd half, the Twins might have easily been a 90+ win team rather easily. 

So here again is the truth,  Gray had probably the best season of his career in 2023. And I doubt the Twins will get any credit for nurturing him to do so. I love Gray and wish he was back in some alternate financial world, but does ANYONE believe he would replicate his career season again in 2024 at age 34? Bless him and the Cardinals and their huge contract.

I am a fan or Maeda because he is an amazing PITCHER. What he did in 2020 for the Twins should NEVER be understated. What he did in 2023...after some rest time to get strong and right...was about as good as he was in 2020. And I'm going to miss his personality as well as his presence on the mound. I applaud Detroit for signing him, but I just don't see the value in a 2yr deal for the Twins at this point. Detroit is stretching to add and compete. 

The Twins are looking to not only compete, but make noise!

Let's look at the rotation right NOW. Lopez is a solid #1, not YET a Verlander STUD, for example sake ONLY. Ryan has looked really good, but stunk when fighting an injury. I love his competive spirit, but he shouldn't have continued when hurt. I DON'T expect him to suddenly to be a STUD SP, but when he was healthy in the 1s half of 2023, he sure looked like a young arm that was taking the next step. Ober is MAYBE even better than a healthy Ryan. They both have a "bulldog" personality and some good stuff that is proven, so far. Paddack looks to be fully recovered and ready to build on the first 5 games he showed as a starter in 2022, and the flash he showed late in 2023.

If you look really close at 2023 and the loss of Gray and Maeda, even with a poor W/L record, what you're really looking at is quality IP and a CHANCE to win. A solid pen, and a better, season long offense, will make a difference. They SHOULD be adding SOMEONE to the rotation no doubt! But let us not forget than an inconsistent offense lead to many of the losses of Gray and Maeda. 

The Twins don't need an IP eater only, but they do need someone who can do that. Through FA...which I doubt...or a trade, which I expect, they will add a SOMEONE to throw consistently, with options. But a more consistent offense is maybe the key. The talent is there to do so. But continued improvement from from Ryan and Ober Is also part of that improvement. 

Absolutely. We can compete, but can we win as many games as last year, or even more? If that is going to happen, we need to add some quality arms, and do it well before spring training starts.  Hopefully, we can get full healthy seasons from Paddack, Ober, and Varland, but that will only get us so far.. 

[Doctor Gast]

8 hours ago, DocBauer said:

But a more consistent offense is maybe the key. 

Very good insight, Doc. I agree with everything you say. Just want to comment on this one comment.            The 1st half the Twins were absolutely terrible in hitting with RISP and even worse with bases loaded. I credit this to the Twins hitting philosophy where they got HRs when we didn't need them & SO in clutch situations that kills rallies. The big difference in the 2nd half was Royce Lewis. Our hitting with RISP & with the bases loaded drastically changed, thanks to him. 

I hope there'd be a change in hitting philosophy (I doubt it) even so we'll have Royce Lewis who is Royce Lewis & thanks to Paparesta we'll have Buxton, Correa, Kiriloff, Miranda & Polanco 100% with Kepler who finally found himself after the shift ban. We have a potent offensive that will begin in full force in '24 so we shouldn't have a problem in offense.

[DJL44]

12 hours ago, Brandon said:

Paddack should be able to pitch 100-120 innings this season of low to mid 3 ERA.

He hasn't done that since his debut season in 2019. It's possible but an ERA of 4 is more likely.

[DJL44]

12 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

I think most worthwhile pitching options (FA or trades) won't happen until Yokomoto signs

I agree that Yamamoto will set the market but Snell might sign before it is completely settled. Everyone else should sign soon thereafter. I think Cease and Glasnow both move before Burnes on the trade market.

Quote

Hopefully they out perform expectations.

This is exactly what you want to avoid in offseason planning. They need a pitching staff that is competitive if everyone hits their median projection.

Then there's the conundrum that if you want to win in the playoffs it's better to concentrate that pitching performance in one or two dominant pitchers than spreading it out among the whole staff.

[TopGunn#22]

This is essentially the Twins FO task.  How to "effectively" replace those lost innings.  I have no problem with the plan being what it was...letting Gray, Maeda and Pagan walk.  Even if we weren't committed to reducing payroll going from $21 million in expenditures to $47 for 2024 just isn't efficient.

Paddack will absolutely step in for Maeda.  Remember, Maeda did not begin the season with the Twins.  I think Paddack can match him in IP.  

We've lost Pagan in the pen and he had a statistically good season.  But others have pointed out almost all his IP came in low leverage situations.  He earned some high leverage opportunities with his performance and when the pen had some injury issues (losing Stewart for an extended time for example) but Pagan's performance in those higher leverage stints was mixed.  

I'm excited to see Funderburk get more innings,  I was very impressed with him.  I'm also saying decades of the Rosary that Matt Canterino can actually stay healthy and will be up by May.  His arm is electric.  Envision another Duran type arm with 99-100 velocity instead of 104.  

But every pitching staff needs DEPTH.  You can mix and match your bullpen to a degree but nothing makes a managers job less stressful than having 5 to 6 guys he can count on to start games consistently.  With the team the Twins have now the J.A. Happ, Shoemaker, Bundy days have to be over.  I want a guy, maybe two, that have a proven track record of having been GOOD at some point in their careers.

There are a couple guys that fit this bill on the FA front.  Lucas Giolito, Trevor Bauer and to a lesser degree, Frankie Montas.  Giolito is a horse who eats innings.  He profiles as the top candidate at 29 y/o..  An elite K rate who has been a Cy Young contender in the past.  Can we get him back on track? 

Trevor Bauer, a former Cy Young winner with great stuff.  He's not a choir boy but MLB certainly did him wrong.  He's 32 years old so a 1 year to 3 year deal fits a timeline.  He was a decent pitcher early in his career but really started to put it together in Cleveland in 2017 & 2018.  He won the N.L. Cy Young in the Covid-19 shortened 2020 season and then in 17 games with the Dodgers in 2021 went 8-5 with a 2.59 ERA.   

Frankie Montas is a bigger risk but has great stuff.

The question will come down to cost.  What would Giolito, Bauer or Montas cost per season and is it a 1-year prove it deal or something along the lines of 3-years with options?  I can't see the Twins shelling out $25 million per year for Glasnow although I would be much more willing to give Glasnow 3-years $25 million per as opposed to Gray.  I base that on age and the pure "stuff" Glasnow has.  Sonny's strength was dependability.  Glasnow's weakness is his lack of it.

I would pay more for any of Giolito, Bauer or Montas than the Tigers signed Maeda for.  I would want more dependability if I was shelling out $25 million per season.  What is that level of spending that a Bauer or Giolito would fall into?  

So I think a trade for someone will happen first, and after most of the pitchers in FA are picked over, maybe the Twins get a Trevor Bauer for 2-3 years and $15 million per season.  

[chpettit19]

47 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

This is essentially the Twins FO task.  How to "effectively" replace those lost innings.  I have no problem with the plan being what it was...letting Gray, Maeda and Pagan walk.  Even if we weren't committed to reducing payroll going from $21 million in expenditures to $47 for 2024 just isn't efficient.

Paddack will absolutely step in for Maeda.  Remember, Maeda did not begin the season with the Twins.  I think Paddack can match him in IP.  

We've lost Pagan in the pen and he had a statistically good season.  But others have pointed out almost all his IP came in low leverage situations.  He earned some high leverage opportunities with his performance and when the pen had some injury issues (losing Stewart for an extended time for example) but Pagan's performance in those higher leverage stints was mixed.  

I'm excited to see Funderburk get more innings,  I was very impressed with him.  I'm also saying decades of the Rosary that Matt Canterino can actually stay healthy and will be up by May.  His arm is electric.  Envision another Duran type arm with 99-100 velocity instead of 104.  

But every pitching staff needs DEPTH.  You can mix and match your bullpen to a degree but nothing makes a managers job less stressful than having 5 to 6 guys he can count on to start games consistently.  With the team the Twins have now the J.A. Happ, Shoemaker, Bundy days have to be over.  I want a guy, maybe two, that have a proven track record of having been GOOD at some point in their careers.

There are a couple guys that fit this bill on the FA front.  Lucas Giolito, Trevor Bauer and to a lesser degree, Frankie Montas.  Giolito is a horse who eats innings.  He profiles as the top candidate at 29 y/o..  An elite K rate who has been a Cy Young contender in the past.  Can we get him back on track? 

Trevor Bauer, a former Cy Young winner with great stuff.  He's not a choir boy but MLB certainly did him wrong.  He's 32 years old so a 1 year to 3 year deal fits a timeline.  He was a decent pitcher early in his career but really started to put it together in Cleveland in 2017 & 2018.  He won the N.L. Cy Young in the Covid-19 shortened 2020 season and then in 17 games with the Dodgers in 2021 went 8-5 with a 2.59 ERA.   

Frankie Montas is a bigger risk but has great stuff.

The question will come down to cost.  What would Giolito, Bauer or Montas cost per season and is it a 1-year prove it deal or something along the lines of 3-years with options?  I can't see the Twins shelling out $25 million per year for Glasnow although I would be much more willing to give Glasnow 3-years $25 million per as opposed to Gray.  I base that on age and the pure "stuff" Glasnow has.  Sonny's strength was dependability.  Glasnow's weakness is his lack of it.

I would pay more for any of Giolito, Bauer or Montas than the Tigers signed Maeda for.  I would want more dependability if I was shelling out $25 million per season.  What is that level of spending that a Bauer or Giolito would fall into?  

So I think a trade for someone will happen first, and after most of the pitchers in FA are picked over, maybe the Twins get a Trevor Bauer for 2-3 years and $15 million per season.  

The thing that will stop the Twins from signing Bauer isn't the allegations that got him suspended, but that he's been a notoriously terrible clubhouse guy since his UCLA days. The Twins seem to care a lot about the clubhouse atmosphere and how the team gets along so I don't think they'd ever consider bringing in a guy with Bauer's reputation. If Terry Francona openly talks about having to trade you because you just didn't work in his clubhouse I think it's pretty safe to say the Twins aren't going to try to bring you in.

Giolito and Montas types are interesting. I'd add the group of Montgomery, Snell, Stroman, Wacha, Flaherty, and Rodriguez since I don't expect the Twins to be in on Yamamoto at all. I think the problem is that the guys that should give us any kind of real faith that they can be part of a 1-2 punch with Lopez are guys the Twins likely won't even offer deals to because their prices are too high, and the guys they could probably afford are likely better options as secondary additions than being the main addition to the rotation.

I think a trade is probably the best bet for them to add someone who has a real shot at forming a 1-2 playoff punch with Lopez. Can they pull off that kind of deal, and how much is it going to cost them?

[JD-TWINS]

TEAM was 15-19 in Gray’s starts. I get he had an outstanding ERA - good for him.

Maeda & Gray were 14-16 between them.

104 innings & 184 innings respectively.

Varland - Paddack - & FA “ X ” (Lugo) can combine for 325 innings. A .500 record or better is pretty feasible.

Again, I trade Rodriguez - Gordon - Festa & Polanco (to then trade for prospects) to Milwaukee for Devin Williams - another 55 innings. He’s under control for 2 years and affordable at $6.25M this year.

Williams & a reasonable FA starter - TWINS would be golden!

[SteveLV]

IMO, massive overpay for Williams--and I like him, alot.

I am not sure I would trade ERod straight up for him.  Same thing for Festa, possibly.

Polanco plus Gordan plus a lower prospect should be fair value for Williams, but I don't think Milwaukee is going to trade him at all.

[Riverbrian]

18 hours ago, DocBauer said:

Here's the honest truth, and you know this Nick, the Twins were under .500 in games started by Gray and Maeda. I believe they were somewhere between 10 or 12 ish games under. 500 when they threw. And that is NOT a condemnation about how good they were! It's about the focus of the TEAM as a whole. Wins and losses are so arbitrary when you look at the BIG PICTURE that what the Twins are looking at is NOT replacing the performance of Gray and Maede directly, it's just about replacing QUALITY INNINGS. 

The pen for the 2023 Twins never stunk, based on overall numbers, even though it wasn't always consistent. Although, I'm not sure any pen is consistent every day/week/month. I don't think it's controversial to say the offense was very inconsistent in 2023. Had we had the second half offense for the entire season, with allowances for the staff being a little bit worse the 2nd half, the Twins might have easily been a 90+ win team rather easily. 

So here again is the truth,  Gray had probably the best season of his career in 2023. And I doubt the Twins will get any credit for nurturing him to do so. I love Gray and wish he was back in some alternate financial world, but does ANYONE believe he would replicate his career season again in 2024 at age 34? Bless him and the Cardinals and their huge contract.

I am a fan or Maeda because he is an amazing PITCHER. What he did in 2020 for the Twins should NEVER be understated. What he did in 2023...after some rest time to get strong and right...was about as good as he was in 2020. And I'm going to miss his personality as well as his presence on the mound. I applaud Detroit for signing him, but I just don't see the value in a 2yr deal for the Twins at this point. Detroit is stretching to add and compete. 

The Twins are looking to not only compete, but make noise!

Let's look at the rotation right NOW. Lopez is a solid #1, not YET a Verlander STUD, for example sake ONLY. Ryan has looked really good, but stunk when fighting an injury. I love his competive spirit, but he shouldn't have continued when hurt. I DON'T expect him to suddenly to be a STUD SP, but when he was healthy in the 1s half of 2023, he sure looked like a young arm that was taking the next step. Ober is MAYBE even better than a healthy Ryan. They both have a "bulldog" personality and some good stuff that is proven, so far. Paddack looks to be fully recovered and ready to build on the first 5 games he showed as a starter in 2022, and the flash he showed late in 2023.

If you look really close at 2023 and the loss of Gray and Maeda, even with a poor W/L record, what you're really looking at is quality IP and a CHANCE to win. A solid pen, and a better, season long offense, will make a difference. They SHOULD be adding SOMEONE to the rotation no doubt! But let us not forget than an inconsistent offense lead to many of the losses of Gray and Maeda. 

The Twins don't need an IP eater only, but they do need someone who can do that. Through FA...which I doubt...or a trade, which I expect, they will add a SOMEONE to throw consistently, with options. But a more consistent offense is maybe the key. The talent is there to do so. But continued improvement from from Ryan and Ober Is also part of that improvement. 

Spot on

It is nearly impossible for the Twins to replicate what they did on the mound in 2023. They could sign Yamamoto and the pitching staff still won't be as good even if it looks comparable on paper.

Improving or even maintaining the pitching numbers in 2023 is going to be very hard to do because it was very very good last year.  

I am not saying the pitching is going to fall apart but I do think it will be less than... what we got in 2023. 

It will be an easier path for the Twins to cover for a pitching downtick by making improvements to an offense that has plenty of space to improve. 

Another great post from Doc. 

[JD-TWINS]

21 hours ago, DocBauer said:

Here's the honest truth, and you know this Nick, the Twins were under .500 in games started by Gray and Maeda. I believe they were somewhere between 10 or 12 ish games under. 500 when they threw. And that is NOT a condemnation about how good they were! It's about the focus of the TEAM as a whole. Wins and losses are so arbitrary when you look at the BIG PICTURE that what the Twins are looking at is NOT replacing the performance of Gray and Maede directly, it's just about replacing QUALITY INNINGS. 

The pen for the 2023 Twins never stunk, based on overall numbers, even though it wasn't always consistent. Although, I'm not sure any pen is consistent every day/week/month. I don't think it's controversial to say the offense was very inconsistent in 2023. Had we had the second half offense for the entire season, with allowances for the staff being a little bit worse the 2nd half, the Twins might have easily been a 90+ win team rather easily. 

So here again is the truth,  Gray had probably the best season of his career in 2023. And I doubt the Twins will get any credit for nurturing him to do so. I love Gray and wish he was back in some alternate financial world, but does ANYONE believe he would replicate his career season again in 2024 at age 34? Bless him and the Cardinals and their huge contract.

I am a fan or Maeda because he is an amazing PITCHER. What he did in 2020 for the Twins should NEVER be understated. What he did in 2023...after some rest time to get strong and right...was about as good as he was in 2020. And I'm going to miss his personality as well as his presence on the mound. I applaud Detroit for signing him, but I just don't see the value in a 2yr deal for the Twins at this point. Detroit is stretching to add and compete. 

The Twins are looking to not only compete, but make noise!

Let's look at the rotation right NOW. Lopez is a solid #1, not YET a Verlander STUD, for example sake ONLY. Ryan has looked really good, but stunk when fighting an injury. I love his competive spirit, but he shouldn't have continued when hurt. I DON'T expect him to suddenly to be a STUD SP, but when he was healthy in the 1s half of 2023, he sure looked like a young arm that was taking the next step. Ober is MAYBE even better than a healthy Ryan. They both have a "bulldog" personality and some good stuff that is proven, so far. Paddack looks to be fully recovered and ready to build on the first 5 games he showed as a starter in 2022, and the flash he showed late in 2023.

If you look really close at 2023 and the loss of Gray and Maeda, even with a poor W/L record, what you're really looking at is quality IP and a CHANCE to win. A solid pen, and a better, season long offense, will make a difference. They SHOULD be adding SOMEONE to the rotation no doubt! But let us not forget than an inconsistent offense lead to many of the losses of Gray and Maeda. 

The Twins don't need an IP eater only, but they do need someone who can do that. Through FA...which I doubt...or a trade, which I expect, they will add a SOMEONE to throw consistently, with options. But a more consistent offense is maybe the key. The talent is there to do so. But continued improvement from from Ryan and Ober Is also part of that improvement. 

TWINS were 15-19 in Gray’s starts. He won a playoff game & got out of a two out jam picking a guy off 2B - other playoff outing was subpar to say the least. He’s got great stuff - his ability to get past the 6th inning is a challenge. I think we can replace his innings & Maeda’s (284 total) with a mid $$ FA (Lugo) along with Varland & Paddack.

I understand not wanting to overstate things…..sounding too rah rah, but there aren’t 6-7 better pitchers in the game (based on ‘23 performances) than Lopez. He tied with Snell for 3rd place in baseball for strikeouts and he was 23rd in ERA .06 runs per 9 from 18th, in ERA. His two playoff starts were stellar! He needs to back it up this year - if he has similar stats he is truly an ACE. If one blends his ERA & K’s, he has to be a Top Ten starter.

Miley signed for $8.5M - Maeda for $12M - Lugo has been projected to be wanting $12.5 - $13M…….his ERA was better than Lopez at 3.53….,a good value & affordable by just moving on from Polanco. Former reliever, so not overworked for innings at 34.

Trade for somebody feasible to obtain - a reliever to clear up any confusion with Varland potentially being in the Pen. I get really aggressive with trade pieces with the Brewers, for Devin Williams! He’s a set-up guy or closer - an All-Star - under control for 2 years - $6.25M & affordable.

[DocBauer]

9 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

TWINS were 15-19 in Gray’s starts. He won a playoff game & got out of a two out jam picking a guy off 2B - other playoff outing was subpar to say the least. He’s got great stuff - his ability to get past the 6th inning is a challenge. I think we can replace his innings & Maeda’s (284 total) with a mid $$ FA (Lugo) along with Varland & Paddack.

I understand not wanting to overstate things…..sounding too rah rah, but there aren’t 6-7 better pitchers in the game (based on ‘23 performances) than Lopez. He tied with Snell for 3rd place in baseball for strikeouts and he was 23rd in ERA .06 runs per 9 from 18th, in ERA. His two playoff starts were stellar! He needs to back it up this year - if he has similar stats he is truly an ACE. If one blends his ERA & K’s, he has to be a Top Ten starter.

Miley signed for $8.5M - Maeda for $12M - Lugo has been projected to be wanting $12.5 - $13M…….his ERA was better than Lopez at 3.53….,a good value & affordable by just moving on from Polanco. Former reliever, so not overworked for innings at 34.

Trade for somebody feasible to obtain - a reliever to clear up any confusion with Varland potentially being in the Pen. I get really aggressive with trade pieces with the Brewers, for Devin Williams! He’s a set-up guy or closer - an All-Star - under control for 2 years - $6.25M & affordable.

I liked the idea of Miley. I also like the idea of adding Lugo. It makes sense if you are looking for cost controlled, solid, and 1yr. If things work out right, you might be looking at a handful of young arms ready for their auditions in 2025.

Replacing good innings is the key, as I stated previously, not replacing wins. I think the Twins will still probably go the trade route for a younger arm with control and upside, similar to Lopez.

I don't disagree with your idea of Williams for the pen. I do believe the pen is short ONE GOOD ARM to potentially make it really good. Just almost impossible to repeat how good the Twins staff was in 2023. But you can improve the TEAM by adding that one arm to the pen, and maybe, hopefully, adding a solid...if not great...bat somewhere.

I believe it was Nash Walker who recently speculated on signing Lourdes Gurriel for $20M AFTER moving Kepler and Polanco, IIRC. He adds a big RH bat and fits the $ moved from those two.

The only issue I have with adding Williams to the pen is I just think a SP needs to come first, and I think that's what the FO thinks. I just don't know if the Twins have enough "ammunition" that they want to send out via trade to add both a rotation piece and a pen arm like Williams. But I thoroughly endorse your idea.

 

[DocBauer]

13 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

Very good insight, Doc. I agree with everything you say. Just want to comment on this one comment.            The 1st half the Twins were absolutely terrible in hitting with RISP and even worse with bases loaded. I credit this to the Twins hitting philosophy where they got HRs when we didn't need them & SO in clutch situations that kills rallies. The big difference in the 2nd half was Royce Lewis. Our hitting with RISP & with the bases loaded drastically changed, thanks to him. 

I hope there'd be a change in hitting philosophy (I doubt it) even so we'll have Royce Lewis who is Royce Lewis & thanks to Paparesta we'll have Buxton, Correa, Kiriloff, Miranda & Polanco 100% with Kepler who finally found himself after the shift ban. We have a potent offensive that will begin in full force in '24 so we shouldn't have a problem in offense.

I generally agree with you. However, we might disagree on the Twins basic hitting philosophy. Homers, and doubles for that matter, are HUGE when scoring runs. Strikeouts, by themselves, are not an issue if you have all those XBH and can maintain a high OB% to compensate. 

The 2023 Twins offense was imperfect for various reasons. One was the virtual inability of Gallo to actually HIT a baseball. The other was that the proposed idea of a high OB% wasn't always there. But even if it was, you still need a few guys in the lineup who can actually HIT. And that's why Lewis and Julien made such a difference. A healthy Correa and Kirilloff can add to that as well.

I don't disagree that the offense has the potential to be good, and overall better than it was in 2023. Find someway to add a solid arm for the rotation, hopefully add ONE ARM that is solid to deepen the pen, and the TEAM is better as a whole, even if and when the rotation slips somewhat from the unprecedented level of 2023. 

But I'd still feel better if there was room to add one more, solid, RH bat. Maybe that's a return to health/form of Miranda. Maybe just a healthy Correa and "as healthy as we can get him" Buxton makes the difference.

[DocBauer]

15 hours ago, Doctor Wu said:

Absolutely. We can compete, but can we win as many games as last year, or even more? If that is going to happen, we need to add some quality arms, and do it well before spring training starts.  Hopefully, we can get full healthy seasons from Paddack, Ober, and Varland, but that will only get us so far.. 

Call me crazy, but I don't think Ober has peaked yet. Further, I think we all sometimes forget how good Ryan looked before his injury. Unlike some, I don't look for Ryan to ever be GREAT. But I think he's really good, and if he can continue to throw like he did for about 2/3 of 2023, well, he might not be "great", but he'd be damn good.

I think the Twins are very high on Paddack's recovery and potential. That fills me with confidence. While he wasn't outstanding, he flashes for 5 games after they acquired him, as they were tweaking his repitore. He certainly flashed from the pen after his recovery. I'm not expecting miracles in 2024 from him, but I'm hoping for 24/25 starts with IP monitored to keep him strong for the whole season. Maybe 120-130 IP if he's nursed along a bit?

I've already stated elsewhere I'd like to see Varland as a starter still.

You don't replace what Gray did last year. Doubtful Gray would replace Gray were he back. But I agree they need a solid arm to replace the IP lost by Gray. Just a solid arm to keep the rotation strong and give you a chance to win when he's on the mound. Could that be a 1yr FA? There's still some solid arms that might do so. But I'm still betting on a trade for someone younger with control and upside, similar to Lopez.

And I'd really, really like ONE good, solid arm for the pen to deepen it and make it go from good to potentially great. But that's either going to come via trade as well, or a rebound type candidate. This FO just doesn't believe in throwing big $ at relievers. And they're probably right, generally, in their philosophy. 

[Doctor Wu]

On 12/5/2023 at 10:00 AM, DocBauer said:

Call me crazy, but I don't think Ober has peaked yet. Further, I think we all sometimes forget how good Ryan looked before his injury. Unlike some, I don't look for Ryan to ever be GREAT. But I think he's really good, and if he can continue to throw like he did for about 2/3 of 2023, well, he might not be "great", but he'd be damn good.

I think the Twins are very high on Paddack's recovery and potential. That fills me with confidence. While he wasn't outstanding, he flashes for 5 games after they acquired him, as they were tweaking his repitore. He certainly flashed from the pen after his recovery. I'm not expecting miracles in 2024 from him, but I'm hoping for 24/25 starts with IP monitored to keep him strong for the whole season. Maybe 120-130 IP if he's nursed along a bit?

I've already stated elsewhere I'd like to see Varland as a starter still.

You don't replace what Gray did last year. Doubtful Gray would replace Gray were he back. But I agree they need a solid arm to replace the IP lost by Gray. Just a solid arm to keep the rotation strong and give you a chance to win when he's on the mound. Could that be a 1yr FA? There's still some solid arms that might do so. But I'm still betting on a trade for someone younger with control and upside, similar to Lopez.

And I'd really, really like ONE good, solid arm for the pen to deepen it and make it go from good to potentially great. But that's either going to come via trade as well, or a rebound type candidate. This FO just doesn't believe in throwing big $ at relievers. And they're probably right, generally, in their philosophy. 

I hope you are right about both Ober and Ryan.  When they were throwing well earlier in the season, they both looked like legit rotation pieces. And I also still hold out hope for Varland in the rotation too. All in all, some positives to take from those arms. As for the bullpen, I agree in finding a bounce-back candidate, or converting a starter to a relief role. I also think that spending big money on a relief pitcher is a dodgy proposition most of the time.