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Looking back at the most successful teams in recent MLB history, we see how the impact of multiple star players clicking at the same time can carry clubs to new heights. The most recent example is the World Series champion Texas Rangers, who were propelled by a pair of top-three MVP finishers (Corey Seager and Marcus Semien).
Teams like the Dodgers, Astros, Phillies, and Braves have, similarly, been elevated by their star power. Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, Bryce Harper, Ronald Acuna, Jr., and Matt Olson deliver massive value on the way to 100-plus win seasons and deep playoff runs. Pitching and depth both matter, as we've learned, but the reality is that having multiple everyday players on your roster who put up 5+ WAR can make up for a lot issues elsewhere. This concentrated production also tends to factor more heavily in October, where individual impact is accentuated.
The Twins have long worked to build this kind of core, and are hoping it will all come together in 2024. Carlos Correa is entering his age-29 season, Byron Buxton his age-30 season, and Royce Lewis is looking to put in his first full MLB campaign at age 24.
The Three North Stars
It was always known that these three players could be destined for the tier of true major-league superstars. All were baseball prodigies from a very young age. Correa and Lewis were both No. 1 overall draft picks, and Buxton (No. 2 behind Correa in 2012) would've been the top pick in many other years.
The Twins invested heavily to acquire these three–in money, draft capital, or both–and now the franchise has reached a point it's long been building toward: all three are in the majors, in their (ostensible) physical primes, and ready to join forces for a clear contender.
Yes, there are question marks surrounding each of the three, as we'll discuss, but let's just look at what they've done when on the field. Here's a rough calculation of each player's fWAR per full season (averaged out for Buxton and Correa, extrapolated for Lewis):
- Carlos Correa: 4.7 fWAR per 150 games
- Byron Buxton: 4.2 fWAR per 150 games
- Royce Lewis: 6.2 fWAR per 150 games
At a base level, if all three of these players stay mostly healthy next year and play to these standards of production, you've got a championship-caliber nucleus, plain and simple. Those are All-Star players at three critical positions. If we take one step farther into the realm of optimism, one could envision any of the three contending for an MVP in 2024. Correa wasn't far off from that form in 2021 or 2022. The same can be said for Buxton during that span, when on the field: he amassed 8.1 fWAR in 153 games.
Lewis is the least proven, but his potential feels almost limitless, after watching him slug at a 40-homer pace while acclimating to major-league pitching. To whatever extent the clutch gene exists, Lewis has it in spades. That is undeniable.
In addition to on-field production and pedigree, all three of these guys are leaders in the clubhouse, with intangible value that magnifies their positive impact. When you take away the injuries, it's easy to see why the Twins and their current front office have placed this trio at the center of their team-building scheme.
Of course, you can't take away the injuries.
The Elephant in the Room
Let's just get it all out there. Correa is coming off the worst season of his career, in which he was plagued by signs of potential age-related regression even beyond the plantar fasciitis that bothered him for much of the season. Buxton's year was a depressing mess, casting doubt on his ability to stay on the field at all going forward, let alone play center field regularly. Lewis has played all of 118 total games over the past four seasons due to a medley of injuries, which extended into his brilliant rookie year.
Coming off an 87-win season, it's understandable why many fans are yearning for more star power to be added to the mix this offseason, but that level of help probably isn't coming. The Twins will be focused on using what limited resources they have to replace their pitching losses and replenish their depth.
They have little choice but to depend on these three core players as the foundations of their championship vision for 2024–because of the financial commitments they've already made to Correa and Buxton, and because of the ability Lewis has shown. There's an inclination for fans to focus on the negative or the downside in scenarios like these. After all, we've been conditioned to expect the worst when it comes to injury outcomes. But as this quiet offseason unfolds, I urge you to look at the bright side, and to consider the ceiling for the team if it all comes together next year.
Reasons to Believe
Setting aside the injury baggage, let's remind ourselves of the talent level these three players possess, and the highlights they've produced in big spots over the past few seasons. Is it plausible for all three to realize their top form next year? Here are some points for optimism:
- Not always, but plantar fasciitis is often an injury that lingers throughout a season before clearing up with extended rest during the offseason. That'll be the hope for Correa, who notably looked excellent in the playoffs after finally tearing the fascia late in the season.
- La Velle E. Neal III of the Star Tribune reported over the weekend that Buxton is "fully recovered" from his latest knee surgery and preparing for next season with the goal of playing center field. Given what a tough time he's had with the knee, I understand the widespread skepticism, but the team and its trainers are at least implementing a clear plan to address it. These things can take time.
- You'd like to think Lewis's catastrophic bad breaks are behind him. His twice-repaired right knee looked fully functional after his return this year. Hopefully going through some troubles with the oblique and hamstring helped him learn about managing his body and avoiding soft-tissue injuries going forward. For what it's worth, staying healthy and on the field was never a problem for Lewis prior to the two fluky ACL tears.
The Time Is Now for This Twins Trio
When Derek Falvey and Thad Levine took over the Twins front office, they inherited the first overall pick in their very first draft. They used it to select Lewis, setting in motion a team-building vision that is now reaching its planned fruition. Along the way, Correa and Buxton joined Lewis as core building blocks, signing two of the largest contracts in team history.
This is it. This is what the Twins have been building toward and now we'll see if these three superstar-caliber players can come together and make magic. Down the line, they might be joined or succeeded at this level by the likes of Brooks Lee or Walker Jenkins, who arguably offer the same kind of upside. But for now, look no further than Correa, Buxton and Lewis as the decisive factors in Minnesota's outlook in 2024, regardless of what else happens this offseason.
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