Setting the Stage for the 2023-24 Twins Offseason

[Nick Nelson]

Minnesota's championship window has been thrust open. The front office's decisions this offseason could prove pivotal in dictating whether the Twins take the next step or stumble.

Here's a primer on what lies ahead, including arbitration decisions, pending free agents, and 40-man roster considerations.

The Twins are in good shape heading into this offseason. They just won the AL Central behind a youth-fueled surge in the second half, and made noise in the playoffs for the first time in almost 20 years. 

They're able to bring back a majority of their roster, and could field a contending team without making a single move.

The front office has a stable base to build from as they aim to elevate the Twins to a commanding presence in the American League. But they also have some challenges in front of them.

Looking ahead to a high-stakes offseason, here's a rundown of key things to know about the roster, the payroll, and big decisions that loom on the horizon.

TEAM OPTIONS AND ARBITRATION DECISIONS

The first thing the front office will need to sort out, before figuring out who they want to add, is who they want to keep. Many players (like Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton) are under guaranteed contract, but in other cases the Twins can exercise optional control over players via either contract options or arbitration. (Arb estimates courtesy of MLB Trade Rumors.)

Team Options for 2024:

• Jorge Polanco ($10.5M)
• Max Kepler ($10M)

Arbitration Eligible in 2024:

• Kyle Farmer ($6.6M)
• Willi Castro ($3.2M)
• Caleb Thielbar ($3M)
• Ryan Jeffers ($2.3M)
• Alex Kirilloff: ($1.7M)
• Jordan Luplow: ($1.6M)
• Jorge Alcala: ($1M)
• Nick Gordon: ($1M)

Plenty of no-brainers among this crop, but also some tricky decisions. It's fair to say several players on the list are trade candidates, with Farmer and Kepler standing out as most likely candidates.

PENDING FREE AGENTS

These are the members of the 2023 Twins who are set to hit the open market after the World Series concludes, starting with the reigning team MVP:

• Sonny Gray, SP
• Michael A. Taylor, CF
• Emilio Pagán, RP
• Kenta Maeda, SP
• Donovan Solano, 1B
• Joey Gallo, 1B/OF

With the exception of Gallo, these all feel like players the Twins need to either re-sign or replace in their roles. Finding a way to offset the (presumed) loss of Gray atop the rotation is priority No. 1, but it will also be important to develop strong depth and contingencies behind Buxton in CF and Kirilloff and 1B, as Taylor and Solano provided this year.  

2024 ROSTER AND PAYROLL PROJECTION

The table below shows a very-early layout of the Twins 2024 roster as it currently projects, absent any offseason moves. For now, this projection assumes that the team brings back Kepler, Polanco, and all of their arb-eligible players sans Luplow and Gordon.

As you can see, the baseline payroll in this scenario is a little under $120M, or about $30 million short of their 2023 payroll. Whether spending will increase, decrease, or stay the same is a rather complex topic for another day. But in any case, there should be some spending money available and the Twins can easily open up more.

40-MAN ROSTER AND THE RULE 5 DRAFT

In order to protect their newly-eligible prospects from the Rule 5 draft, and to make room for new offseason additions, the Twins will need to create some space on the 40-man roster. They got a head-start on that process over the weekend by outrighting Andrew Stevenson and José De León. 

That leaves them at 36 – subtracting all soon-to-be-free agents – which is a pretty good place to start. Especially since there are still several players still on the roster who could be removed without much trepidation (Luplow, Oliver Ortega, etc.). 

The Twins are going to need some of that room, and not only for hopeful outside additions via free agency and trades. Several minor-leagues are entering the phase of eligibility for the Rule 5 draft, which means Minnesota must add them to the 40-man roster by mid-November or risk losing them to another team.

These players include:

• Jair Camargo, C
• Austin Martin, OF
• Emmanuel Rodriguez, OF
• Yunior Severino, IF
• DaShawn Keirsey Jr., OF
• Michael Helman, IF
• Cody Laweryson, RHP
• Jose Salas, IF
• Chris Williams, 1B

I'd argue that at least the top three on that list are absolute must-adds, and you can make strong cases for several others. 

These are the decisions and opportunities that will present themselves once the offseason gets underway. And it's not too far off. Make sure you stay tuned into Twins Daily all winter for unrivaled coverage of all the Hot Stove action.

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[tony&rodney]

Good work Nick. Do we make our guesses a week after the World Series?

Small detail - minimum for 2024 is $740,000.

[BH67]

Succinctly explained, Nick. Thank you.

[Mai.K]

Thank you Nick
Why not "Anthony Prato" on the 40-man roster?

[mikelink45]

I think the top four have to be put on the 40 man and there are at least four in the pitcher category that are easy decisions in my mind plus Luplow and probably Gordon. 

[Rosterman]

$48m between Buxton/Correa. Happily the Twins have control of MOST of the names on the above list for the next 3-5 years.

What to do about Enlow?

You can hang onto some names and hope for trades or remove them if you sign a free agent.

As with all Rule 5 names, you have to ask how much will they contribute to the 2024 team of your own. If you don't see them contributing (with the rare occasion), you would hope other teams would feel the same. Some, who are minor league free agents, you can offer a bigger minor league contract (maybe Stevenson will be one) to stay in the system with the promise of a had look next season.

[Whitey333]

It will be interesting to see how tge payroll budget will be handled.  With 54 million in tv money not available for now, I would suspect payroll will be held in check until they know how they will be replacing that money.

[Jocko87]

It's a really fortunate year for the TV deal snafu.  Sucks to deal with but the timing could be worse.  They are in a nice position where they could just match last years payroll while making one or two nice, in character free agent moves while still putting a good team on the field.  There are many years where we could look at the roster and spend $100m pretty easily.  I don't feel like the fanbase will be too hard on anyone considering the TV situation and relative state of the squad.

Also, why is Dobnak dead money?  I know its a bad contract but he is alive and pitching.  No reason why he couldn't work back into the long reliever discussion after the 40 man movement is cleared up.

[minman1982]

Since I think it is likely Sonny Gray does not return, I think the first order of business is to get another top end SP to complement Pablo Lopez. Let's also assume that Shohei Ohtani, Julio Urias, and Blake Snell are all out of reach for the Twins too. What about a guy like Lucas Giolito or Jordan Montgomery? Both guys have been decent over the last few years and could be solid additions. They could also go with someone like Aaron Nola who is going to eat a ton of innings and protect the bullpen.

The second order of business is finding an everyday center fielder since Byron Buxton is in all likelihood not it. I am in favor of seeing if Michael A. Taylor would be willing to come back next season if the deal is right. Maybe Willi Castro fills in. Could this be a place for Austin Martin? Could we trade Larnach for someone who can play CF? Is there someone else lurking in the minors that could maybe fill in here? 

The third order of business would be to see if they can find a trade partner for Kepler or Polanco, particularly if they could solve the SP problem in first order of business through this path. I like both of these guys but if you can reallocate $10M through a trade to solve another need, why not do it? There is no need to salary dump, so the deal has to be good.

[dxpavelka]

$150 Million is likely a stretch given the current and likely future state of local television revenues.

 

 

[ANDREW WEBSTER]

Playoff money may be like blood in the water. I assume the Twins made 10 to 20 million in pre selling playoff strips, add a few million per game in single game tickets, throw in 4 games of concessions and merch, and don't forget the added sales in September for pennant race baseball compared to a team just playing out an average season; If the Twins were poised, and expected, to be a third place plus team in the central, then I might also agree that $150 M would be a stretch. I believe, and my Twins fan fingers are crossed here, that spending will be within +/- 3.5% of 150M.

[Brandon]

Looking at what we have set up for next season.  we really need to focus on finding a starting pitcher in the 2-3 range, and depth.  Depending on our budget which 2 or 3 of our current bench do we bring back.  for the bench I think it should be Castro, Gordon, Solano and Vazquez based on budget and utility.  Castro can be the 3B and SS back up and Gordon backs up CF.  If we have the budget we can keep farmer as I think he will cost less than Taylor and let Gordon go.  Solano is good 1B insurance and pinch hitter and getting on base. 

Also need a 7th or depth starter for AAA.  as of right now our 6,7, and 8 starters are Festa, Dobnak, and Woods-Richardson not necessarily in that order.  It would be a good idea to have someone more accomplished as the 7th starter assuming we sign a starter that pushes the order down 1 peg.  I can also see us signing a low-cost reliever or two like the ones we usually do to compete for a spot in spring training.  

We could do this and keep the budget in the 140 million range.  If we can keep the budget at 150 million we can afford Gray based on the cost estimates above,  

[Richie the Rally Goat]

9 hours ago, Jocko87 said:

why is Dobnak dead money?  I know it’s a bad contract but he is alive and pitching.  No reason why he couldn't work back into the long reliever discussion after the 40 man movement is cleared up.

He was DFA’d and accepted a AAA assignment. It’s dead until/if he’s added to the 40 man. He won’t be added in the off-season, not until they need him.

How is a $1.9m annual average salary a bad contract? Injuries happen, slow recoveries happen. There is a good chance he works his way into a role this year.

[Trov]

I believe the top 4 on the rule 5 list should be added, if we do not add Serverino he will get drafted by someone.  Unless you feel he just does not add enough value to your MLB roster, someone will take him no doubt. He is still young, at AAA was a top international kid years ago.  No way will he pass through rule 5.  The other 4 all could be taken, but really not a ton of risk of losing any of them as they are mostly just depth guys that will only see playing time at MLB if there are injuries, or they just go on crazy hot run. 

[Major League Ready]

12 hours ago, Whitey333 said:

It will be interesting to see how tge payroll budget will be handled.  With 54 million in tv money not available for now, I would suspect payroll will be held in check until they know how they will be replacing that money.

They knew this was coming.  If I were Derek Falvey, I would have arranged (internally) for most of the BAM money to be allocated to 2024.  They only spent an extra $10M this year over the previous year so this could happen.  Even if it were $20M "surplus", that should make up for a significant portion of the revenue decrease.  

Trading Polanco makes up for the rest ( I’M guessing).  They likely go after a replacement for Gray and Polanco gets traded if they land someone like Montgomery or resign Gray.   It’s also quite possible Polanco gets traded regardless.

It will likely come down to allocating limited funds.  Replacing Gray probably gets top priority and the OF is the next priority.  The IF bench gets covered Castro / Miranda / Severino / Prato and Farmer if they can afford him.   Polanco and Gordon are the most likely to go.
 

[chpettit19]

10 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

$150 Million is likely a stretch given the current and likely future state of local television revenues.

 

 

It better not be. The Twins are in way too big of a market to be in the bottom 10 in payrolls in baseball. 153 mil landed them at 17th this year. They are in too big of a market to be 17th, let alone start cutting payroll now and drop into the 20-30 range. They knew this was coming and should be prepared for it by now. There's no excuse for cutting payroll.

[Johnny Ringo]

1 hour ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

He was DFA’d and accepted a AAA assignment. It’s dead until/if he’s added to the 40 man. He won’t be added in the off-season, not until they need him.

How is a $1.9m annual average salary a bad contract? Injuries happen, slow recoveries happen. There is a good chance he works his way into a role this year.

I am sure that Randy is a nice man but he had a 5 plus ERA in 126 innings in AAA last year. Unlucky? Uh, no. His 1.7 WHIP suggests that he should go to Vegas. I am not sure the word dead is subject to gradation but nothing is deader than that money. 

[Brandon27]

I don't see Polanco on this team with Julien probably taking over second  and Lee in st paul knocking on the door I see Polanco getting traded.

[saviking]

FYI .. The Athletic just listed or 10 most valuable players for 2023 and Correa didn't even make the list and I agree 100%. I also could see Lewis become a better clubhouse leader than Correa. Teammate gravitate to him. 

[jmlease1]

8 hours ago, ANDREW WEBSTER said:

Playoff money may be like blood in the water. I assume the Twins made 10 to 20 million in pre selling playoff strips, add a few million per game in single game tickets, throw in 4 games of concessions and merch, and don't forget the added sales in September for pennant race baseball compared to a team just playing out an average season; If the Twins were poised, and expected, to be a third place plus team in the central, then I might also agree that $150 M would be a stretch. I believe, and my Twins fan fingers are crossed here, that spending will be within +/- 3.5% of 150M.

You are drastically overestimating how much additional revenue the Twins generated from 4 home playoff games. While I still believe the Twins can support a payroll around $150M if they get something reasonable settled with the TV contract, presuming they generated $15-25M in playoff revenue is going to give people an inflated expectation of what playoff baseball means for payroll. (remember, if they take deposits/advance sales on games that aren't played, that money has to be refunded or applied to next year's season ticket balance) The playoffs helps, but they're probably more in the $8-10M range for revenue, which is also gross revenue, not net. (as in, they still have to pay the costs of putting on the games)

[stringer bell]

I don’t think they can bring back everyone on the position player side. Allowing for Kirilloff and Buxton to start on the IL, but bringing back Solano, Farmer and MAT, plus picking up the options for Kepler and Polanco, the Twins have about 15 players for 13 spots and that is allowing for Miranda, Larnach and Martin in the minors. Farmer’s role will be diminished with other guys capable of playing short, and Solano will turn 36 this winter. Gordon is out of options and not really trusted in the infield. I move on from all three of them. A starter better than Varland needs to be added and center field depth has to be provided for, probably with a right handed hitter. 
 

It seems clear to me that the Twins will have to sacrifice position player depth to augment their losses. Adding a bullpen arm would be a good move, as well. 

[Nick Nelson]

Update: Jordan Luplow has also been updated, per DHP, so we can remove him from the 40-man and arb discussions. 

 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

4 hours ago, Johnny Ringo said:

I am sure that Randy is a nice man but he had a 5 plus ERA in 126 innings in AAA last year. Unlucky? Uh, no. His 1.7 WHIP suggests that he should go to Vegas. I am not sure the word dead is subject to gradation but nothing is deader than that money. 

Dobnak was hurt in 2022, he pitched in 11 games.

Also, The International League is very hitter friendly. Minor league stats are harder to come by, but context for his 5 era and 1.7 whip might be helpful.

Spencer Strider had 281 MLB strikeouts, and rookie hitters coming up to the bigs strikeout a ton. It’s a hitters league.

[Vanimal46]

5 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

They knew this was coming.  If I were Derek Falvey, I would have arranged (internally) for most of the BAM money to be allocated to 2024.  They only spent an extra $10M this year over the previous year so this could happen.  Even if it were $20M "surplus", that should make up for a significant portion of the revenue decrease.  

Trading Polanco makes up for the rest ( I’M guessing).  They likely go after a replacement for Gray and Polanco gets traded if they land someone like Montgomery or resign Gray.   It’s also quite possible Polanco gets traded regardless.

It will likely come down to allocating limited funds.  Replacing Gray probably gets top priority and the OF is the next priority.  The IF bench gets covered Castro / Miranda / Severino / Prato and Farmer if they can afford him.   Polanco and Gordon are the most likely to go.
 

Agreed - There had to be significant planning ahead so they can maintain their current budget after the Bally’s contract expired. 

The payroll might be down just through the moves they make this offseason, but I seriously doubt there’s a mandate to hit a payroll number much lower than it was in 2023. 

[PatPfund]

Let the fun planning begin (on an excellent base of kNelson Knowledge)! I'd be protecting the top 4 on MiLB player list for sure. Used to have big hopes for Winder, but he (and Sands) have looked pretty fungible the last two years; some nice moments, but pretty replaceable. I expect (as they have recently) the Twins will pursue an SP through the trade route, especially early. Any FAs are likely to be later "value" adds if someone's market isn't as hot as expected. (Which is good since there is a surplus on the position side. Might be a stinger like Wallner or Julien, though, instead of Polanco or Kepler as the lure of youth rules.)

I guess I also see Bryon as a bench player right now, and not even a half-time CF until he shows he can do it. And it has been years. There is at least one former Gold-Glover coming off a great defensive year and a career high HR season, that they could talk to.

[umterp23]

not sure what the love affair is with Gordon, but do we really need $1MM 5th/6th type of outfielder when you have the following if they are retained:

Buxton (may never see OF again), Wallner, Castro, Larnach, Kepler.  

Gordon is a lefty swinger which we have many already and has a pretty weak outfield arm.  

Martin, Lewis can man CF when Lee is ready or we keep Taylor.  DFA Gordon and see what club takes a swing on a guy who really hasn't played since he broke his leg

[Brandon]

7 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

It better not be. The Twins are in way too big of a market to be in the bottom 10 in payrolls in baseball. 153 mil landed them at 17th this year. They are in too big of a market to be 17th, let alone start cutting payroll now and drop into the 20-30 range. They knew this was coming and should be prepared for it by now. There's no excuse for cutting payroll.

They are in the smallest market for a city with all 4 major sport franchises.  (football, baseball, hockey, and NBA)  that doesn't take into account WNBA, St Paul Saints, and College Sports.  

In San Diego their payroll went up when the Chargers left town and they were they only sport in town.  

This is how we are a bottom 10 payroll.  or around the 22nd - 18th out of 30 teams 

[chpettit19]

23 minutes ago, Brandon said:

They are in the smallest market for a city with all 4 major sport franchises.  (football, baseball, hockey, and NBA)  that doesn't take into account WNBA, St Paul Saints, and College Sports.  

In San Diego their payroll went up when the Chargers left town and they were they only sport in town.  

This is how we are a bottom 10 payroll.  or around the 22nd - 18th out of 30 teams 

The Twins have the 17th ranked market score in MLB. They should never be below the 17th ranked payroll in baseball. They were at that mark this year. They were 16th last year (Pohlads loosening those purse strings!). 17th in 2021, 17th in 2020, and 18th in 2019. There is no excuse for them to drop below 17th. They knew their TV deal was expiring after this year, and they knew the Bally's situation was in trouble well before any of us did. If they aren't prepared to fill that revenue void that's a failure on their part.

The Twins have the summer to themselves in the Twin Cities. Market your team better. Put a better product on the field. Earn the eyeballs. The Twins should never be below 17th in payroll. They should never be a bottom 10 payroll. There's other things to do, watch, and spend your money on in every MLB city. Minneapolis isn't alone in having other activities. The Timberwolves just put themselves deep into the luxury tax despite competing directly with the NFL and NHL for nearly their entire season. Build a better product. Market it better. And MN fans show up and tune in.

And Miami, Detroit, Arizona, and Colorado all have lower market scores than the Twin Cities while also having all 4 major sports, FYI.

[Guest]

3 hours ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

Dobnak was hurt in 2022, he pitched in 11 games.

Also, The International League is very hitter friendly. Minor league stats are harder to come by, but context for his 5 era and 1.7 whip might be helpful.

Spencer Strider had 281 MLB strikeouts, and rookie hitters coming up to the bigs strikeout a ton. It’s a hitters league.

This is really big on my screen,

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, umterp23 said:

not sure what the love affair is with Gordon, but do we really need $1MM 5th/6th type of outfielder when you have the following if they are retained:

Buxton (may never see OF again), Wallner, Castro, Larnach, Kepler.  

Gordon is a lefty swinger which we have many already and has a pretty weak outfield arm.  

Martin, Lewis can man CF when Lee is ready or we keep Taylor.  DFA Gordon and see what club takes a swing on a guy who really hasn't played since he broke his leg

I'm not a Gordon believer (swing rate just isn't conducive to success), but are we really sure Castro and Larnach are better than him? Castro is certainly faster, and a better defender, but are we sure he's a better hitter? Or that Castro is even a major league hitter moving forward? Are we sure Larnach is better than him at anything? I'm not suggesting Gordon be handed a starting job. Not even suggesting he be handed a roster spot. But is $1 million really so much that we don't think it's worth at least keeping him around until we have someone we know is better than him to take his 40-man spot?