Setting the Stage for the 2023-24 Twins Offseason

Good work Nick. Do we make our guesses a week after the World Series?

Small detail - minimum for 2024 is $740,000.

Succinctly explained, Nick. Thank you.

Thank you Nick
Why not "Anthony Prato" on the 40-man roster?

$48m between Buxton/Correa. Happily the Twins have control of MOST of the names on the above list for the next 3-5 years.

What to do about Enlow?

You can hang onto some names and hope for trades or remove them if you sign a free agent.

As with all Rule 5 names, you have to ask how much will they contribute to the 2024 team of your own. If you don't see them contributing (with the rare occasion), you would hope other teams would feel the same. Some, who are minor league free agents, you can offer a bigger minor league contract (maybe Stevenson will be one) to stay in the system with the promise of a had look next season.

It will be interesting to see how tge payroll budget will be handled.  With 54 million in tv money not available for now, I would suspect payroll will be held in check until they know how they will be replacing that money.

Since I think it is likely Sonny Gray does not return, I think the first order of business is to get another top end SP to complement Pablo Lopez. Let's also assume that Shohei Ohtani, Julio Urias, and Blake Snell are all out of reach for the Twins too. What about a guy like Lucas Giolito or Jordan Montgomery? Both guys have been decent over the last few years and could be solid additions. They could also go with someone like Aaron Nola who is going to eat a ton of innings and protect the bullpen.

The second order of business is finding an everyday center fielder since Byron Buxton is in all likelihood not it. I am in favor of seeing if Michael A. Taylor would be willing to come back next season if the deal is right. Maybe Willi Castro fills in. Could this be a place for Austin Martin? Could we trade Larnach for someone who can play CF? Is there someone else lurking in the minors that could maybe fill in here? 

The third order of business would be to see if they can find a trade partner for Kepler or Polanco, particularly if they could solve the SP problem in first order of business through this path. I like both of these guys but if you can reallocate $10M through a trade to solve another need, why not do it? There is no need to salary dump, so the deal has to be good.

$150 Million is likely a stretch given the current and likely future state of local television revenues.

Looking at what we have set up for next season.  we really need to focus on finding a starting pitcher in the 2-3 range, and depth.  Depending on our budget which 2 or 3 of our current bench do we bring back.  for the bench I think it should be Castro, Gordon, Solano and Vazquez based on budget and utility.  Castro can be the 3B and SS back up and Gordon backs up CF.  If we have the budget we can keep farmer as I think he will cost less than Taylor and let Gordon go.  Solano is good 1B insurance and pinch hitter and getting on base. 

Also need a 7th or depth starter for AAA.  as of right now our 6,7, and 8 starters are Festa, Dobnak, and Woods-Richardson not necessarily in that order.  It would be a good idea to have someone more accomplished as the 7th starter assuming we sign a starter that pushes the order down 1 peg.  I can also see us signing a low-cost reliever or two like the ones we usually do to compete for a spot in spring training.  

We could do this and keep the budget in the 140 million range.  If we can keep the budget at 150 million we can afford Gray based on the cost estimates above,  

I believe the top 4 on the rule 5 list should be added, if we do not add Serverino he will get drafted by someone.  Unless you feel he just does not add enough value to your MLB roster, someone will take him no doubt. He is still young, at AAA was a top international kid years ago.  No way will he pass through rule 5.  The other 4 all could be taken, but really not a ton of risk of losing any of them as they are mostly just depth guys that will only see playing time at MLB if there are injuries, or they just go on crazy hot run. 

12 hours ago, Whitey333 said:

It will be interesting to see how tge payroll budget will be handled.  With 54 million in tv money not available for now, I would suspect payroll will be held in check until they know how they will be replacing that money.

They knew this was coming.  If I were Derek Falvey, I would have arranged (internally) for most of the BAM money to be allocated to 2024.  They only spent an extra $10M this year over the previous year so this could happen.  Even if it were $20M "surplus", that should make up for a significant portion of the revenue decrease.  

Trading Polanco makes up for the rest ( I’M guessing).  They likely go after a replacement for Gray and Polanco gets traded if they land someone like Montgomery or resign Gray.   It’s also quite possible Polanco gets traded regardless.

It will likely come down to allocating limited funds.  Replacing Gray probably gets top priority and the OF is the next priority.  The IF bench gets covered Castro / Miranda / Severino / Prato and Farmer if they can afford him.   Polanco and Gordon are the most likely to go.
 

1 hour ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

He was DFA’d and accepted a AAA assignment. It’s dead until/if he’s added to the 40 man. He won’t be added in the off-season, not until they need him.

How is a $1.9m annual average salary a bad contract? Injuries happen, slow recoveries happen. There is a good chance he works his way into a role this year.

I am sure that Randy is a nice man but he had a 5 plus ERA in 126 innings in AAA last year. Unlucky? Uh, no. His 1.7 WHIP suggests that he should go to Vegas. I am not sure the word dead is subject to gradation but nothing is deader than that money. 

I don't see Polanco on this team with Julien probably taking over second  and Lee in st paul knocking on the door I see Polanco getting traded.

8 hours ago, ANDREW WEBSTER said:

Playoff money may be like blood in the water. I assume the Twins made 10 to 20 million in pre selling playoff strips, add a few million per game in single game tickets, throw in 4 games of concessions and merch, and don't forget the added sales in September for pennant race baseball compared to a team just playing out an average season; If the Twins were poised, and expected, to be a third place plus team in the central, then I might also agree that $150 M would be a stretch. I believe, and my Twins fan fingers are crossed here, that spending will be within +/- 3.5% of 150M.

You are drastically overestimating how much additional revenue the Twins generated from 4 home playoff games. While I still believe the Twins can support a payroll around $150M if they get something reasonable settled with the TV contract, presuming they generated $15-25M in playoff revenue is going to give people an inflated expectation of what playoff baseball means for payroll. (remember, if they take deposits/advance sales on games that aren't played, that money has to be refunded or applied to next year's season ticket balance) The playoffs helps, but they're probably more in the $8-10M range for revenue, which is also gross revenue, not net. (as in, they still have to pay the costs of putting on the games)

not sure what the love affair is with Gordon, but do we really need $1MM 5th/6th type of outfielder when you have the following if they are retained:

Buxton (may never see OF again), Wallner, Castro, Larnach, Kepler.  

Gordon is a lefty swinger which we have many already and has a pretty weak outfield arm.  

Martin, Lewis can man CF when Lee is ready or we keep Taylor.  DFA Gordon and see what club takes a swing on a guy who really hasn't played since he broke his leg

7 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

It better not be. The Twins are in way too big of a market to be in the bottom 10 in payrolls in baseball. 153 mil landed them at 17th this year. They are in too big of a market to be 17th, let alone start cutting payroll now and drop into the 20-30 range. They knew this was coming and should be prepared for it by now. There's no excuse for cutting payroll.

They are in the smallest market for a city with all 4 major sport franchises.  (football, baseball, hockey, and NBA)  that doesn't take into account WNBA, St Paul Saints, and College Sports.  

In San Diego their payroll went up when the Chargers left town and they were they only sport in town.  

This is how we are a bottom 10 payroll.  or around the 22nd - 18th out of 30 teams 

I open enough room on the 40-man to protect Camargo, Martin, E-Rod and Severino and leave one more spot open if there is a rule 5 guy I just gotta have if opportunity presents itself.  The others I expose and if someone takes them that's O.K.  We've got plenty of young talent looking for a promotion.  Move 'em up!

I see the Twins exercising the options on both Polanco and Kepler.  But with what we have on the roster and the pipeline I see Polanco getting traded.  I also don't see any of Gray, Taylor or Solano coming near what they did in 2023.  I consider them a win for 2023,  but I'm reloading.  With the uncertainty with Kirilloff, I'm looking for a better RH hitting alternative who maybe could play some OF as well. 

Farmer can be packaged in a trade for SP depth or a decent bullpen arm.  I'm moving on from Theilbar.  He's our most expensive arm in the pen at $3 million and he can be counted on for 2-3 trips to the I.L. for sure.  I'm using that money for a bullpen upgrade and leaning more heavily on Funderburk (I liked what I saw) and Moran if he can improve his command.

Finally for that additional SP, before I make any trades, I'm looking at Eduardo Rodriguez and Trevor Bauer.  E-Rod would finally give us a LH in the rotation and he won't be as costly as Snell, Gray or Nola.  Bauer is still a talented pitcher and he could be very affordable as well.  He got a raw deal from MLB and the league needs to figure out how to handle situations like this in the future.  The man is not a Saint, but now that the real story has come out, he's certainly not the arch villain he was made out to be. 

The Twins are in a great position with all the youth on the team and some truly interesting talent in the pipeline.  After they set their starting rotation priorities, and if they signed E-Rod and Bauer they could be looking at a staff of Lopez, E-Rod, Bauer, Ober, Ryan and Paddock---you have to have six because injuries are just too predictable.  Only Lopez didn't have issues or an I.L. stint in 2023, THEN you have to figure out CF.  That could be where Polanco and/or Farmer come into play with the possibility of a minor league arm as well in a trade.  No plan for 2024 should include counting on anything from Buxton.  Whatever we get from him is pure gravy.  Castro and Martin would be the last resort fallback if no trade is made.