Should the Twins Shop a Young Corner Bat?

[Cody Pirkl]

The Twins have a logjam of left-handed corner outfielders, a statement that’s just as true today as it was when the season began. Should the Twins be looking to deal one of their younger ones away?

Image courtesy of Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports

Between Max Kepler, Joey Gallo, Trevor Larnach, and Matt Wallner, the Twins have four left-handed corner outfielders for two spots, and no DH role open with Byron Buxton appearing to be no closer to returning to the field. This, of course, is before Nick Gordon returns from the 60-day IL. The Twins are in a tough spot they put themselves in. Kepler and Gallo have underwhelmed as a whole (though they’ve been better lately), and two top prospects in Larnach and Wallner are having a portion of their prime wasted in the minors. 

Everyone wants Kepler or Gallo to be the ones shipped out. The Twins have shown no indication of being close to doing so, and at 25 and 26 years old respectively, Wallner and Larnach are losing value with no route forward aside from injury. If the Twins are going to continue to defer to their veterans, they should look to get value from one of their younger bats. Which should it be?

Matt Wallner
Wallner is a Minnesota product, holding a special place in many fans' hearts. His flaws are obvious between the strikeouts and poor defense in the outfield, and some have completely written him off as a result. The Twins don’t appear to be the biggest fans themselves, considering they continued to jam up the corner outfield with left-handed options last winter despite Wallner winning Minor League Hitter of the Year.

There are red flags keeping him from being a top prospect, and teams would take note of this in trade talks. Wallner has shown a glimmer of hope to overcome these issues between adjusting his K% in Triple-A in a major way, and proving that his arm can make up for his lack of range in the outfield.

Why would the Twins trade Wallner? It’s possible his stock will never be higher considering his risky offensive profile. He also has a similar three true outcomes profile to Trevor Larnach, whom the Twins have favored until his most recent call-up. If a team is less concerned about the profile, they can look at Wallner’s limited MLB action resulting in a 122 wRC+, and could be willing to give up more if the Twins are again looking for pieces they’d control for multiple years. It would be a dicey move by the Twins having not given Wallner an extended look in the majors, but based on how they’ve used him in his career thus far, it wouldn’t be shocking if they weren’t all that worried about missing out. 

Trevor Larnach
Despite streaks of looking like an offensive contributor, Larnach’s overall career production has underwhelmed. 5% below league average through 650+ plate appearances, Larnach has shown the walk and strikeout profile of an elite slugger but has backed it up with an untenable .376 slugging percentage.

Still, the flashes are there. He has an elite eye at the plate and uses all fields. Despite his lack of power overall, he’s flashed the raw power that always made him so intriguing as a prospect. He’s also been a solid defender in left field despite his lack of speed. It’s possible Wallner has surpassed Larnach on the depth chart based on Wallner’s recent call up, but it’s also worth considering that Larnach had only seen about 100 plate appearances in St. Paul prior to this year, and the Twins may be giving him the time he missed out on in his upper minors development. He’s not exactly dominating there with a 108 wRC+ so far. 

If the Twins trade Larnach at this point, it will be obvious to whatever team involved that they had seen enough to give up on him. That doesn’t mean he’s without worth in a trade given his five years of control, but the mystery of what Larnach could be has waned much more than Wallner considering the overall body of work between three seasons now. Larnach hasn’t reached the territory where he should be traded for a rental player, but it’s hard to imagine him being the centerpiece of a trade for a controllable impact player.

Even if the Twins were to keep both players, at least one of them will begin 2024 in the minors. Partially due to lack of opportunity, neither player has cemented themselves into being considered for an opening day starting role. Even if both Kepler and Gallo depart, the Twins will likely replace them with at least one established veteran. At least one of them will be with the Saints to begin the season either at age 26 or 27. It’s a waste of value, and unfair to the players.

The Twins shouldn’t continue their trend of jamming up the roster with left-handed outfielders. It would be great if Larnach and/or Wallner got the opportunity to show that they can be considered pieces of the 2024 puzzle, but it would be surprising to see one of them get that chance down the stretch, let alone both.

If the Twins want to add meaningful pieces at the deadline, their farm system is barer than it has been in recent seasons. It may serve them better to deal from depth and part with one of their young left-handed corner bats. The catch of course is they have to be certain it won’t come back to bite them considering their unwillingness to give opportunities in the majors. Should they trade Larnach or Wallner?

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[mikelink45]

I do not see Larnach or Wallner having much trade value.  I would certainly choose Larnach if one has to go, but do we expect Gallo back next year?  That would be awful. (I almost wrote Offal - negative feelings coming out).  I also wonder if Kepler has increased his trade value and will be gone next year. 

[strumdatjag]

The Twins won’t deal Wallner because he’s a local boy.  Larnach seems the likely odd man out here. 

[CRF]

I don't know what they could get for any of them, but it's pretty clear they have to try and do something. I don't think that their trade value is worth very much. I'd really like to see Gallo and Kepler gone as well. Signing Gallo was a mistake. Kepler has been much better lately, but it's time to move on from him. 

[Linus]

I also don’t see either with a lot of trade value. The Gallo signing has hurt us in a bunch of different ways including these two drifting in the wind. I would trade Larnach because he has given no indication that he can hit MLB off speed stuff and the league knows it. 

[old nurse]

Gallo and Kepler are not young. Gallo has no value except as a DFA where the Twins pick up his contract and the Twins get a 24 year old reliever in A ball. 

,25,26 are not young in terms of baseball. In mlb experience they are young. I think pretty much any team has these players in their system. An unmet ceiling, a hole here and there in their game. The only one of value really would be Wallner for a bat if it stays hot and a contender wants a bat. The return would be the same as a rental. So the question becomes are the Wichita outfielders wood enough to play? Don’t. Know 

[mike8791]

Would add Miranda to the list.  Larnach or Wallner (I prefer wallner) + Miranda could net someone like Lane Thomas, especially if we were to throw in a #11-20 pitching prospect.   

[SteveLV]

If we could trade Larnach or Wallner for their "right handed clones", e.g., an equivalent player who hits right handed, that would be fine with me.

[Cory Engelhardt]

Yes, make it happen. These guys have some skills that other teams would want, and in a lot of ways the roster should be better balanced. And that's both for this year and for next year ongoing.

 

[weitz41]

It's tough to understand the Gallo signing when the same issue existed in November as we have now. Not enough AB's for very similar players...I get the playing for upside with Gallo but when you have Kepler, Larnach and Wallner..why?? All they accomplished was reducing the value of all three and they still don't truly know what they have in Wallner and Larnach.

Something has to give, not sure what that is. It will be selling low (IMO) on Wallner and Larnach if either gets traded and unlikely to provide any meaningful additions if its Gallo or Kepler.

[Doctor Gast]

Twins have a fetish w/ cOF/1B/DH big bats especially LH and tend to draft & horde them. I agree with the majority here that Gallo should not have been signed but like I said that this FO has a fetish & the fact Levine knows him made it irresistable for them. Also Kepler should have been traded for a RP this last off season to reduce the log jam. Besides Gallo, Kepler,  Larnach and Gordon, we can add Kiriloff & switch hitting Castro to the surplus right now. So it made no sense to sign Gallo or keep Kepler.

Larnach & Wallner both have a lot of talent, it's ashame that this organization hasn't adequately developed them. Right now Larnach stock has fallen dramaticly we wouldn't close to get what he's worth.

[JD-TWINS]

55 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

I do not see Larnach or Wallner having much trade value.  I would certainly choose Larnach if one has to go, but do we expect Gallo back next year?  That would be awful. (I almost wrote Offal - negative feelings coming out).  I also wonder if Kepler has increased his trade value and will be gone next year. 

Cannot believe I’m saying this but if Kepler plays average baseball, offensively, .230 BA & .730 OPS & 20 plus HR he is very likely back in 2024 as we wait for Gordon/Wallner/Larnach situation to sort out. 1 & probably 2 of those guys are gone to start ‘24.

Kepler seems to have cemented himself in RF for remainder of this season. Castro is too valuable with flex defense and speed to move. Taylor has too much value on D and can’t hit well enough to attract any suitors.

I honestly think that Gallo may stick through the season……..his August may allow us (FO) to feel it’s OK to DFA him. I think he’s untradable …… can’t imagine anyone desiring a .159 BA with 10 RBI since middle of May!!! Why do the Twins? Seemed they were going to try him in CF over the weekend before the last minute scratch. Can’t sweat the clubhouse vibe at the expense of a usable piece down the stretch……without an improbable uptick, should DFA prior to September 1 if we can’t move him by deadline.

Gallo in CF - Castro at 3B………Polanco at 2B -  Julien at DH……..Wallner in LF & Kepler in RF - Kirilloff at 1B……….that’s a nice line-up with Joey in as the upside risk guy! Gets us a bridge to Lewis coming back strong.

Larnach or Wallner?? 

Larnach looks the part! Wallner seems to be still on the ascent v. Larnach’s results in ‘23 - right?

Wallner - Castro/Gallo - Kepler is our OF v. RH pitching. They seem to want to give Wallner a real look.

When talking trade we probably let the trade partner pick which guy they want (Larnach/Wallner) v. us offering and creating position of weakness - we can always say no.

Not a high priority other than potentially opening a 40 man spot because of that need.

[JD-TWINS]

14 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

Twins have a fetish w/ cOF/1B/DH big bats especially LH and tend to draft & horde them. I agree with the majority here that Gallo should not have been signed but like I said that this FO has a fetish & the fact Levine knows him made it irresistable for them. Also Kepler should have been traded for a RP this last off season to reduce the log jam. Besides Gallo, Kepler,  Larnach and Gordon, we can add Kiriloff & switch hitting Castro to the surplus right now. So it made no sense to sign Gallo or keep Kepler.

Larnach & Wallner both have a lot of talent, it's ashame that this organization hasn't adequately developed them. Right now Larnach stock has fallen dramaticly we wouldn't close to get what he's worth.

Larnach has to develop his bat - organizational failure is an excuse! He has had injuries that have bought him extra time…….this year needs to be a positive step forward and it’s not shaping up like that. Wish him the best. He appears to be another Kirilloff but he’s got to prove it with results.

If we can’t get proper value, whatever that may be, don’t move him.

[terrydactyls]

The thing that bothers me is that the Twins openly announce players' weaknesses but never give them a chance to get better.  For example, Larnach and Wallner can't hit MLB pitching.  So let's keep them in the minors so they will never learn how.  Or, Kirilloff can't hit left handers so let's pinch hit for him whenever he has to face one.  And this happens while they have a permanent DH who is hitting below .200.  Give these guys extended opportunities to develop.

[JD-TWINS]

In defense of the FO - I don’t think anyone thought Castro would perform such (signed for IF depth……OF too out of Spring Training) that he has no chance of being optioned - this is part of the jamb in the OF right now.

[Dman]

The tough part is figuring out what the value back for players would be.  If it is meaningful I could see making a deal but so many of the guys we might trade have value on the margins and are not huge difference makers so getting anything of any real value seems difficult.  If you can't get anything back that moves the needle then might as well just role with what you have. 

TBH if they can get value trading any of the guys on one year deals I would do those deals.  If some team wants to overpay for MAT I do that deal knowing one of Castro, Celestino, Lewis or Gordon when he comes back can play there.  Gallo if any team will take him I wouldn't even care about the return might be it is addition by subtraction.  Kepler if the value is there do the deal but with another year left they can wait as well.

I am not eager to part with the young bats especially not Wallner because we don't even know what he can do yet at the MLB level and he seems to be as good or better than Gallo anyway.  With Gallo likely gone next year and Kepler with one foot out the door it doesn't seem prudent to trade the young lefty bats IMO.

 

[jun]

Castro is here to stay. Gallo should be let go and Kepler should be traded. Let Wallner and Larnach play as much as possible.

[JD-TWINS]

5 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

The thing that bothers me is that the Twins openly announce players' weaknesses but never give them a chance to get better.  For example, Larnach and Wallner can't hit MLB pitching.  So let's keep them in the minors so they will never learn how.  Or, Kirilloff can't hit left handers so let's pinch hit for him whenever he has to face one.  And this happens while they have a permanent DH who is hitting below .200.  Give these guys extended opportunities to develop.

Kirilloff is routinely moved to the OF & Solano at 1B when facing LH pitching? Sometimes guys don’t match up well & get pinch hit for…….,,Larnach & Wallner …….if they “can’t hit MLB pitching” we can’t develop them in the Show - the games count.

Larnach has over 600 AB’s in MLB & Wallner is now getting a 3rd shot this year……. seems they are getting a chance to show their potential to me.

Can’t defend Buxton!

.

[Parfigliano]

21 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

The thing that bothers me is that the Twins openly announce players' weaknesses but never give them a chance to get better.  For example, Larnach and Wallner can't hit MLB pitching.  So let's keep them in the minors so they will never learn how.  Or, Kirilloff can't hit left handers so let's pinch hit for him whenever he has to face one.  And this happens while they have a permanent DH who is hitting below .200.  Give these guys extended opportunities to develop.

Bingo.  Big part of the problem logjam is they insist on playing Mr sub .200 as DH every day.  

[Rod Carews Birthday]

I think it boils down to what they are thinking about Kepler's option for next year.  If they are planning to pick it up, then definitely trade one of Larnach/Wallner (and likely Miranda), since their time has come, for better or worse.  If Kepler is back, that leaves only one spot to be filled with Gallo's departure. 

On the other hand, if they would remove Gallo or Kepler (or both) at the deadline or through DFA, keeping both Larnach and Wallner would be in order and inserting them in the lineup immediately would be the best option.  It seems likely that they could hold their own now and in the future.  The team would also find out for certain (or as certainly as possible) what next year might look like by giving them development/playing time in the majors for the rest of this year.  Miranda is another issue, as he doesn't seem to have a spot to play in the infield, with Kiriloff entrenched at first and Lewis the likely third baseman.  The pipeline of players moving forward in the infield would seem to leave him as the odd man looking in, so trading him might make sense as well.  Unfortunately, his value has really cratered.  Castro is probably the insurance policy for all of these positions (and maybe CF as well) in case someone stops hitting/fielding effectively.  His ceiling isn't super high but the floor would prevent a disaster. 

[tony&rodney]

I'm not sure either Wallner or Larnach ever amount to strong regulars, but both could be successful if given an extended opportunity. Wallner is a little awkward, yet he has speed and has shown some ability to adapt. Wallner has a higher ceiling than Larnach in my opinion. Gallo has worked hard and made some decent contributions to the Twins. He has also declined beyond the point of being a regular lineup presence and could easily be traded or cut. Kepler still has enough athleticism to provide some value until someone (Wallner?) shows that they are a better option. Larnach is on the outside looking up, a difficult situation for him. The trade value of all four left handed hitting corner outfielders is pretty limited. Unless Wallner goes on a strong hitting streak, he will almost surely wear a Saints jersey when Polanco returns. Gallo seems like the most fair drop when Lewis returns. Most of the time it seems like an unexpected injury changes the roster composition. Polanco should be back soon and Lewis is still a month away, so plenty of time for someone to get hot, decline further, or get injured or even traded. I'm not betting on anything.

[Nashvilletwin]

Wallner and Larnach could only be so lucky to be traded.

Seriously, let’s face it: neither player (rightly or wrongly - and I’m a wrongly guy) is currently being viewed as a “corner outfielder of the future” with the Twins.  They look at Steer, CES and others and can only dream of being given a real opportunity to prove they are legitimate major leaguers.  A opportunity, btw, which they both deserve and have earned.

Both players need commitment, patience and an organization that is better adept at transitioning minor leaguers into the bigs to do that.  The Twins don’t offer any of that.

Play them or trade them.  And if it is “trade them”, no one really cares what we get back - just let them have their true chance to achieve the life for which they have been striving virtually their entire lives.

We can all write posts in the coming years about how smart or dumb the FO was.

[tony&rodney]

One thing seems obvious - the Twins will play to win and any consideration of having a young(er) player work through a few things (slump/fielding) will not be a thing this year. Wallner needs to get hot and Julien needs to continue to hit and have good at bats or either/both will get sent down. 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

One problem with this whole situation is trying to figure out each player's trade value.  With Kepler, even though he is hitting well lately, it is a three year track record of being not very good, but never completely falling off the table.  So, there probably isn't upside but their appears to be a reasonable floor.  Doesn't scream high trade value but could be useful to a team really needing a decent defensive OF.  With Gallo, who has been pretty bad since May, there is the tantalizing power that he flashes once in awhile, which gets people excited, but his floor seems lower than Keplers even if his ceiling is more enticing.  Miranda. . . great trade value when we didn't want to trade him this past winter, but not much now as he has seeming forgotten how to hit.  Larnach might have more trade value than we think because of the perception that he has been "blocked" at the major league level and has had stretches of performance that amount to a slightly below average MLB hitter at the beginning of his career -- not a ringing endorsement, but he seems like he could get better with time and opportunity.  Finally, Wallner. . . he might have the most value based on his minor league track record and he has been pretty solid in SSS this season in the majors -- but why would you trade that?  Isn't that what you're looking for?  Based on all of this, SOMETHING needs to happen. 

As an aside, I think that the defensive value (or lack thereof) is overstated among the outfielders.  Kepler is solid, but not amazing, and has been a little up and down this year - he's not winning (and hasn't' won) a gold glove.  Gallo suffers from "guy who got a gold glove when he was hitting good because he was solid in the field" syndrome.  He came here and people expected vintage Byron Buxton, and what they got was another version of Kepler -- less range, better arm.  Wallner and Larnach are portrayed by some as butchers in the field, which they are not.  Larnach moves OK for a big guy and while Wallner doesn't have great range, he does have an excellent arm to bail him out when he needs it.  Neither will win a gold glove, but both can certainly be league average defenders. 

[Schmoeman5]

Larnach has been recalled. So now they have Wallner and him up. Don't know who he replaces on the roster. I guess we'll find out soon. More pink eye casualties perhaps. Didn't see anyone injured yesterday???

[Jocko87]

38 minutes ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

I think it boils down to what they are thinking about Kepler's option for next year.  If they are planning to pick it up, then definitely trade one of Larnach/Wallner (and likely Miranda), since their time has come, for better or worse.  If Kepler is back, that leaves only one spot to be filled with Gallo's departure. 

I think it comes down to what they can get the best value for.  They are comfortable with Kepler if its one of the youngsters.  I would assume the value would be Wallner, Larnach, Kepler then Gallo but other orgs might have it different.

I'm positive our hitters are being scouted hard.  Between the LH OF logjam, there is the IF jam as well.  When I look from the outside I see a ton of talent that has torn up the minors but struggled in the majors.  Considering the entire big club has struggled I would assume there is a coaching, scouting, or talent unlocking problem.  Prime acquisition targets as I can buy low with an easy rehab. 

25-27 really isn't young for someone to break out in the bigs.  Its the age for a slower developing college player to get it together and it happens fairly often.  A quick recent scan of debut ages, Jeff McNeil was 26, Jake Crownenworth-26, Luke Raley-26, Bailey Ober-25, Griffen Jax- 26, Brent Rooker-25, Jake Burger-25, Joe Ryan-25, James Outman-25 etc. 

Its not the glamorous 20yo trading market but significant values can be found.  Mostly I would be shopping for solid 2 WAR contributors but you can occasionally hit a McNeil and control his value for most of their career.  My asking price for Wallner and Larnach would be high.

[Jocko87]

7 minutes ago, Schmoeman5 said:

Larnach has been recalled. So now they have Wallner and him up. Don't know who he replaces on the roster. I guess we'll find out soon. More pink eye casualties perhaps. Didn't see anyone injured yesterday???

Buxton rushed off after the game yesterday to have a baby.  Or watch a baby.  Something like that.  I haven't seen anything but would assume a paternity leave is coming.  It also may have been in his head recently which would explain alot.  He seems like a guy who would worry. 

[Road trip]

With another nice game yesterday Wallner now has .8 BWAR in only 39 at bats.  That's more than Gallo has accumulated in the last two years combined!  Maybe rather than considering Wallner a trade candidate the Twins should just give him all of Gallo's playing time..

[lukeduke1980]

Larnach could be moved in a 'sell' deal.  Maybe a Seattle trades for him hoping to generate offense but we get A Level with upside in return 

[Mike Sixel]

52 minutes ago, Road trip said:

With another nice game yesterday Wallner now has .8 BWAR in only 39 at bats.  That's more than Gallo has accumulated in the last two years combined!  Maybe rather than considering Wallner a trade candidate the Twins should just give him all of Gallo's playing time..

There is no reason to trade Wallner. He should play every day. Larnach? Sure, he can fetch a RP I'd guess. Might backfire, but they should do it.