Twins Video
Between Max Kepler, Joey Gallo, Trevor Larnach, and Matt Wallner, the Twins have four left-handed corner outfielders for two spots, and no DH role open with Byron Buxton appearing to be no closer to returning to the field. This, of course, is before Nick Gordon returns from the 60-day IL. The Twins are in a tough spot they put themselves in. Kepler and Gallo have underwhelmed as a whole (though they’ve been better lately), and two top prospects in Larnach and Wallner are having a portion of their prime wasted in the minors.
Everyone wants Kepler or Gallo to be the ones shipped out. The Twins have shown no indication of being close to doing so, and at 25 and 26 years old respectively, Wallner and Larnach are losing value with no route forward aside from injury. If the Twins are going to continue to defer to their veterans, they should look to get value from one of their younger bats. Which should it be?
Matt Wallner
Wallner is a Minnesota product, holding a special place in many fans' hearts. His flaws are obvious between the strikeouts and poor defense in the outfield, and some have completely written him off as a result. The Twins don’t appear to be the biggest fans themselves, considering they continued to jam up the corner outfield with left-handed options last winter despite Wallner winning Minor League Hitter of the Year.
There are red flags keeping him from being a top prospect, and teams would take note of this in trade talks. Wallner has shown a glimmer of hope to overcome these issues between adjusting his K% in Triple-A in a major way, and proving that his arm can make up for his lack of range in the outfield.
Why would the Twins trade Wallner? It’s possible his stock will never be higher considering his risky offensive profile. He also has a similar three true outcomes profile to Trevor Larnach, whom the Twins have favored until his most recent call-up. If a team is less concerned about the profile, they can look at Wallner’s limited MLB action resulting in a 122 wRC+, and could be willing to give up more if the Twins are again looking for pieces they’d control for multiple years. It would be a dicey move by the Twins having not given Wallner an extended look in the majors, but based on how they’ve used him in his career thus far, it wouldn’t be shocking if they weren’t all that worried about missing out.
Trevor Larnach
Despite streaks of looking like an offensive contributor, Larnach’s overall career production has underwhelmed. 5% below league average through 650+ plate appearances, Larnach has shown the walk and strikeout profile of an elite slugger but has backed it up with an untenable .376 slugging percentage.
Still, the flashes are there. He has an elite eye at the plate and uses all fields. Despite his lack of power overall, he’s flashed the raw power that always made him so intriguing as a prospect. He’s also been a solid defender in left field despite his lack of speed. It’s possible Wallner has surpassed Larnach on the depth chart based on Wallner’s recent call up, but it’s also worth considering that Larnach had only seen about 100 plate appearances in St. Paul prior to this year, and the Twins may be giving him the time he missed out on in his upper minors development. He’s not exactly dominating there with a 108 wRC+ so far.
If the Twins trade Larnach at this point, it will be obvious to whatever team involved that they had seen enough to give up on him. That doesn’t mean he’s without worth in a trade given his five years of control, but the mystery of what Larnach could be has waned much more than Wallner considering the overall body of work between three seasons now. Larnach hasn’t reached the territory where he should be traded for a rental player, but it’s hard to imagine him being the centerpiece of a trade for a controllable impact player.
Even if the Twins were to keep both players, at least one of them will begin 2024 in the minors. Partially due to lack of opportunity, neither player has cemented themselves into being considered for an opening day starting role. Even if both Kepler and Gallo depart, the Twins will likely replace them with at least one established veteran. At least one of them will be with the Saints to begin the season either at age 26 or 27. It’s a waste of value, and unfair to the players.
The Twins shouldn’t continue their trend of jamming up the roster with left-handed outfielders. It would be great if Larnach and/or Wallner got the opportunity to show that they can be considered pieces of the 2024 puzzle, but it would be surprising to see one of them get that chance down the stretch, let alone both.
If the Twins want to add meaningful pieces at the deadline, their farm system is barer than it has been in recent seasons. It may serve them better to deal from depth and part with one of their young left-handed corner bats. The catch of course is they have to be certain it won’t come back to bite them considering their unwillingness to give opportunities in the majors. Should they trade Larnach or Wallner?
Recommended Comments
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now