Should the Twins Shop a Young Corner Bat?

[LA Vikes Fan]

4 hours ago, mike8791 said:

Would add Miranda to the list.  Larnach or Wallner (I prefer wallner) + Miranda could net someone like Lane Thomas, especially if we were to throw in a #11-20 pitching prospect.   

Love the idea but no way do we get Thomas for Wallner, Larnach, or Miranda unless that pitching prospect is named Varland, Festa or Raya. Even SWR isn't enough plus Wallner probably isn't enough. And Wallner is worth a lot more than Larnach right now so putting him probably means 2 names from that list.  

[Dantes929]

If they have a log jam of left handed outfielders the logical strategy would be to find a team with a log jam of right handed outfielders and do an even trade of one or two.     Not connected to this thread much but Kiriloff is the guy I want at the plate in a tight situation and here is something I am guessing few are aware of.   Julien has a better OPS and OPS + than Arraez.   Granted, I would like to have them both but does Julien get his chance if we don't lose Arraez?

[Mike Sixel]

2 minutes ago, Dantes929 said:

If they have a log jam of left handed outfielders the logical strategy would be to find a team with a log jam of right handed outfielders and do an even trade of one or two.     Not connected to this thread much but Kiriloff is the guy I want at the plate in a tight situation and here is something I am guessing few are aware of.   Julien has a better OPS and OPS + than Arraez.   Granted, I would like to have them both but does Julien get his chance if we don't lose Arraez?

Heck, he doesn't even get his chance if Polanco isn't hurt, which is another strike against this FO. 

[mike8791]

LA Vikes Fan:  My suggestion was Larnach or Wallner plus Miranda.  That's two potential starters for the Nats.  I think Varland, Winder or SWR might have to b e added, but only to sweeten the deal for A Nat RP.

[Alex Schieferdecker]

For the right price, yes of course the Twins should trade one of their left handed corner bats.

[DocBauer]

I want to give credit where credit is do. Kepler has been better the past 30 days than we've probably seen him on years. His last 30 days:

.266/ .327/ .521/ .848

How well can he maintain it?

Kepler's career quad slash:

.221/ .288/ .429/ .718

Now Larnach, much SSS, through 177 games and 572 ML AB:

.222/ .315/ .376/ .690

This is not to say Larnach hasn't had some issues, particularly tapping in to his power. And when he has looked good, he's had some injuries the first couple of years that stalled progress/seasons. But career numbers are very similar to Kepler at this point. And it's also not another attempt to dismiss Kepler. I'm just pointing out 4yrs younger and almost $8M cheaper and with some potential, why trade him when you don't know yet what you've got? He looks a lot like the older more expensive guy.

Wallner, very SSS, only 36 games:

.260/ .383/ .406/ .789

A nice start though, right? So again, you don't even know what you've got, but he's been raking at AAA for 2yrs with nothing left to prove. 

Gallo for the season and his last 30 days:

.179/ .298/ .459/ .757

.156/ .244/ .416/ .660

I'm just not going down the "trade and DFA Gallo and/or Kepler" rabbit hole we've been on for weeks now. But while I understand the idea behind the OP, make room, try to get something, I just don't see how you trade 2 younger guys and keep a pair of veterans, one if which is not performing at all and won't be back, and one who has looked pretty bad for 3 consecutive years except for a resurgence the last 30 days and is questionable to be back next year.

I don't have an exact answer. There's a few questions nobody has an answer to until/unless we see more of Larnach and Wallner. But I can see Gallo hasn't worked out, and that's a spot where one of the younger bats could have immediate, steady playing time. The other? Do you trade now and hopefully not regret it later? Would the return be enough to take the risk? 

Again, I don't have the answer. I still say changes need to be made. I'm still having a hard time saying it's the prospects that should be gone.

[stringer bell]

3 hours ago, Schmoeman5 said:

Larnach has been recalled. So now they have Wallner and him up. Don't know who he replaces on the roster. I guess we'll find out soon. More pink eye casualties perhaps. Didn't see anyone injured yesterday???

I believe Buxton is on paternity leave.

[Mike Sixel]

17 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

I believe Buxton is on paternity leave.

Correct, up to three days.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

This isn't going to be any decent prospect.  Whether arm or bat,  I am thinking a player like Prato, Helman or Holland (all who would need to be protected in rule V) -  You also have Isola at C who would need to be protected who was also drafted in 2019 draft.  Maybe a minor arm or two as well but nothing the level of a Wallner ect.  

[terrydactyls]

4 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Unless Wallner goes on a strong hitting streak, he will almost surely wear a Saints jersey when Polanco returns. 

Like when he went 8 for 8 last month and got sent down?

[tony&rodney]

1 minute ago, terrydactyls said:

Like when he went 8 for 8 last month and got sent down?

Perhaps Falvey is watching now.

[Dantes929]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

Heck, he doesn't even get his chance if Polanco isn't hurt, which is another strike against this FO. 

Have always wondered if Polanco would have gotten that deal done.    Of course, if Polanco was healthy and raking we would probably be talking a different tune.

[jkcarew]

They should definitely be shopping at LEAST one of Larnach, Kepler, Wallner, Gallo.

Larnach probably doesn't get you much right now...Gallo may get nothing, but I'm sure the FO will try before DFA'ing him.

There may be a team out there that would take on Kepler's remaining option year. And Wallner might be attractive to someone in the off season.

I'm torn on Wallner...I see him as a DH and there's no room there...even if Buxton moves to CF, I would assume Julien would be next in line at DH. And as an outfielder, I only see Wallner as a bridge to the next wave of guys coming up that figure to be good hitters, but with a few more other tools than Wallner.

I think I'd be willing to shop Wallner. But not feel in a hurry...if anything, wait to see if the bat can drive his trade value further.

[NotAboutWinning]

Gallo will not be DFA'd. That would destroy any bit of FA value he still has. He is a Boras client. Falvey has gotten very tight with Boras.

[SteveLV]

Yeah, so tight with Boras we can't get our draft pick signed.....it is a business.  Sure, you can scratch each other's backs, but Boras has an ethical obligation to maximize the return for each client, not trade one off for another.

[Fred]

10 hours ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

Gallo will definitely be gone after this season thereby opening up on corner OF spot.  I would also trade or let Kepler go and plug in Larnach and Wallner at the corners next season.  Then pick up a RH corner OF bat as the 4th outfielder in the off season similar to what we did in the IF this year with Donovan Solano.  The two young lefty's could play most days against right-handers and the new RH vet would be plugged in against lefties.

If they do decide to trade one I'd prefer trading Wallner as I personally believe Larnach has more upside but that is just my opinion.  Wallner being a MN boy has nothing to do with this decision.

So far, everything I've seen from Larnach says he is no better than a AAAA ball player.

[Fred]

3 hours ago, Dantes929 said:

Have always wondered if Polanco would have gotten that deal done.    Of course, if Polanco was healthy and raking we would probably be talking a different tune.

I know I'll be vilified  for this, but trading Polanco now (while he's worth is high) might be the right thing to do. They want Julien's bat in the lineup (even having Polanco play 3rd on his rehab), But what happens when Lewis comes back? Does anybody really want to see him in CF again? Not that he's bad at it, but I don't like the injury thing.

[DocBauer]

2 hours ago, jkcarew said:

They should definitely be shopping at LEAST one of Larnach, Kepler, Wallner, Gallo.

Larnach probably doesn't get you much right now...Gallo may get nothing, but I'm sure the FO will try before DFA'ing him.

There may be a team out there that would take on Kepler's remaining option year. And Wallner might be attractive to someone in the off season.

I'm torn on Wallner...I see him as a DH and there's no room there...even if Buxton moves to CF, I would assume Julien would be next in line at DH. And as an outfielder, I only see Wallner as a bridge to the next wave of guys coming up that figure to be good hitters, but with a few more other tools than Wallner.

I think I'd be willing to shop Wallner. But not feel in a hurry...if anything, wait to see if the bat can drive his trade value further.

I agree on Gallo being shopped and probably getting nothing. But there are teams that love history, and there might be someone just dyeing to add a veteran LH bat, even to platoon, who can take a walk, play solid defense at 3 spots, and maybe make a power difference over the last couple of months.

But I expect nothing or little from a trade, but if I'm the Twins, I take a shot just to see. 

I like Wallner more than you do. What I see is continued improvement each of the last 3yrs. I see high K numbers, but high BB numbers, a solid AVG EVERYWHERE he's played, and tons of power. I honestly think he's a better version of Gallo, with the bat. By that I mean a lot of K's, but also a better actual AVG with enough BB to be relevant in OB%. I couldn't care less if he hit bombs as majestic as Gallo, but he's got great power. I've never looked up Gallo's milb numbers and don't care to. They are irilivent to me. I just see Wallner improving year to year and want to see what he can do at the ML level. And it's time to see it NOW.

I understand issues with Wallner's defense. He's got a cannon of an arm. And despite being a big man, he actually runs very well. (Similar, again, to a young Gallo). What he seems to lack is "tracking" ability. I've seen a few bad examples, but also seen some solid ones. Playing LF the other day against the Dirty Sox, he made a great running grab on a deep ball to left center. And maybe his arm is wasted a bit in LF. But maybe that's where he ends up. And maybe the bat offsets a few defensive liabilities,  that CAN still get better with time and work and coaching and experience. But why in hell wouldn't the Twins just trust in the bat and potential and give it a shot!

One way or another, Gallo should be gone and give Wallner a solid shot! Period! It's just ridiculous otherwise!

I understand confusion with Larnach. I'm frustrated too. He's solid defensively with a very good arm. He makes pretty good contact, and has maintained a pretty good OB% at every level. And he has really good doubles power, and opposite field HR power, similar to Kirilloff. So where is the consistent HR power? I don't know if it's coaching, or him, but the HR power that he has remains locked away right now. SOMETHING is missing. He's not as good as Kepler defensively, but he's pretty good. He almost matches him, or is above, in AVG and OB%. 

His 2021 and 2022 and 2023 debuts all showed a legit bat. 2021 and 2022 were wrecked by injury. So even now, at 26yo, do we even know what he MIGHT become? If I'm a team trading with the Twins, I might want him as someone who is just experience and an adjustment away from being a good contributor to my team. But if I'm the Twins, I'm also wondering how I can unlock that potential. Especially knowing Gallo is going to be gone and we aren't sure about Kepler beyond this year.

As both a Twins fan and a Kepler fan, I'd LOVE if the past 30 days of Kepler production means he's turned some kind of corner at 30yo, and will continue to be a quality producer in the lower third of the lineup. But does 30 days replace a 3yr downside at this point?

I've posted a bunch of relevant numbers in my previous post. And I still don't have answers that I'm concrete on. Except that Gallo should be gone in favor of Wallner and/or Larnach. Kepler remains a mystery. But I'd put Wallner in the OF daily with Gallo gone. Borderline ridiculous to trot out a veteran who can't produce vs a young talent who might. And I'm guessing that will happen.

The FO is just enamored with Kepler. And his last 30 days seems to justify their belief. Time will tell if they are right or wrong. But I'd hold on to Larnach, with Kepler, and his future still unknown, unless someone offers me a good deal with Larnach part of said deal. I don't want to be sitting here in 2024 with Kepler playing good defense but hitting .190 again with weak power and have Larnach finally figuring out his power with someone else.

[Kummel]

It's hard to answer the question readily about Wallner vs Larnach, because as you note, Gallo clogged the pipeline.  It's hard to understand the thinking with that one.  Well, actually we know the thinking because we heard early in the season that the Twins were confident they could improve Gallo's offensive performance.   

[Trov]

The problem with looking to trade either Wallner or Larnach is that neither have much trade value.  Left handed corner OF are a dime a dozen.  Larnach does have some defense to go with his possible bat, but Wallner is bat only.  Neither have shown elite skills so far at MLB level.  Both have shown flashes that teams may be willing to take flier on them, but best we get in return is a pen guy or mid-level rental guy most likely.  I do not see either headlining a deal that pushes us over the top. 

[saviking]

22 hours ago, terrydactyls said:

The thing that bothers me is that the Twins openly announce players' weaknesses but never give them a chance to get better.  For example, Larnach and Wallner can't hit MLB pitching.  So let's keep them in the minors so they will never learn how.  Or, Kirilloff can't hit left handers so let's pinch hit for him whenever he has to face one.  And this happens while they have a permanent DH who is hitting below .200.  Give these guys extended opportunities to develop.

Right on! 

The article says, no route to the majors. Why, because Twins management was supposed to trade Kepler over the off-season and decided to sign Gallo. Who's fault is that. Not Wallner and Larnach. Look at the last two or three games. The young guns Wallner, Larnach, Julien, Krilloff have carried this team. 

All it would take is to move Gallo and shut Buxton down for the season to get him ready for next, whether that means another knee scope or not. When Lewis and Gordon are ready you're going to need to take a look at Salono and Farmer and decide whether you want to lose Gordon or not. Hard decisions have to be made. Do the Twins believe in our young players or or do they want to ride some mediocre old guys to the playoffs? 

[Cody Pirkl]

On 7/24/2023 at 8:26 AM, mikelink45 said:

I do not see Larnach or Wallner having much trade value.  I would certainly choose Larnach if one has to go, but do we expect Gallo back next year?  That would be awful. (I almost wrote Offal - negative feelings coming out).  I also wonder if Kepler has increased his trade value and will be gone next year. 

Each of them have great plate discipline and a ton of power. That's a better foundation at the plate than plenty of prospects have, and each comes with 5+ years of control. Are they centerpieces in a trade for someone like Paul Goldschmidt? Absolutely not. Some team could see an opportunity to give them full playing time and maybe make a few changes though, and the years of control afford a lot of ceiling if it pays off. The Twins could likely get someone that helps them for multiple years if they can find a taker.

[Cody Pirkl]

38 minutes ago, Trov said:

The problem with looking to trade either Wallner or Larnach is that neither have much trade value.  Left handed corner OF are a dime a dozen.  Larnach does have some defense to go with his possible bat, but Wallner is bat only.  Neither have shown elite skills so far at MLB level.  Both have shown flashes that teams may be willing to take flier on them, but best we get in return is a pen guy or mid-level rental guy most likely.  I do not see either headlining a deal that pushes us over the top. 

They've flashed the ability to contribute though, and it's not impossible that the 4+ years of control on each could translate to a year+ of control in a trade return if a team thinks they can be MLB caliber players. I take that scenario where the Twins get some value out of them over one or both rotting at Triple-A until they're 30 years old.

[NotAboutWinning]

16 minutes ago, Cody Pirkl said:

They've flashed the ability to contribute though, and it's not impossible that the 4+ years of control on each could translate to a year+ of control in a trade return if a team thinks they can be MLB caliber players. I take that scenario where the Twins get some value out of them over one or both rotting at Triple-A until they're 30 years old.

And I have no doubt another organization could bring out more of their potential. That is a pretty common theme with AAA guys stuck in the Twins system.

[RpR]

2 hours ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

I was happy to see Gallo in CF yesterday to open up a corner OF spot for Wallner.  This kid needs AB's so we can assess his potential.

Over the last 3-years many of us have been asking for Kepler to be traded.  Whether it is failure to admit their mistake or his low value, the FO has been resistant to trading him.  Given the last 30-days or so, he has turned it on and his value may never be higher.  Trade him now at the deadline so that we can recoup some of that value into a RH'ed corner OF or prospects while opening AB's for Wallner and Larnach.  I know that it's difficult to trade somebody who is currently hot, but we may never see a better time to trade Kepler.

And Wallner probably will never be more than a poor fielding rookie.