Rumor: Rosenthal: The Twins Are Weird and That Makes the Deadline a Challenge

[Brock Beauchamp]

In an early trade deadline roundup, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic wrote a few paragraphs on the Twins and how unusual their path to "contention" has been.

• The Twins' positional fWAR leaders are Donovan Solano, Willi Castro, and Ryan Jeffers
• The Twins' positional fWAR leaders (the three listed above) have only 1.2 fWAR apiece, the lowest in MLB
• Yet the Twins have the most positive fWAR position players in baseball at 16

Those three leaders in fWAR were not intended to be every day starters on Opening Day. This makes the deadline something of a paradox for the Twins. None of their position players are below replacement level yet none of them are actually "good", either.

Who do you replace first at the deadline?

View full rumor

[Mike Sixel]

Who do I replace first?

Gallo

Kepler

A third baseman (like, I replace whomever that is now)

I consider replacing Taylor, but I just don't see how they pay the price to do so

[stringer bell]

Gleeman & The Geek had similar thoughts. The offense is bad (at least until recently), but finding players who are a clear upgrade isn't easy and casting aside someone like Gallo or Kepler doesn't really change the overall problem.

I do think adding a RH hitting OF who would reduce playing time for Taylor/Gallo/Kepler makes sense. When Aaron Hicks was released, I wondered if the Twins would consider him. I think in retrospect he would have been a good fit, but again that would necessitate an "okay" player being released or demoted.

[stringer bell]

3 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Who do I replace first?

Gallo

Kepler

A third baseman (like, I replace whomever that is now)

I consider replacing Taylor, but I just don't see how they pay the price to do so

If one healthy player needs to be demoted or DFAed, I would agree it should be Gallo. He's on a one-year deal and his positive contribution is so sporadic. Also, he's Exhibit A of "so many strikeouts".

[nicksaviking]

My order would be Gallo, Kepler, Taylor and whatever the heck is going on at 3B.

But I wouldn't wait until the deadline to do it, and I wouldn't do it with trade targets either.

If we're only talking trades, I actually would be most inclined to replace Maeda with another starter. Double down on the one thing the team has done well.

[Mike Sixel]

10 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

My order would be Gallo, Kepler, Taylor and whatever the heck is going on at 3B.

But I wouldn't wait until the deadline to do it, and I wouldn't do it with trade targets either.

If we're only talking trades, I actually would be most inclined to replace Maeda with another starter. Double down on the one thing the team has done well.

I mean, I'd try Wallner and AK to the outfield, and call up Williams or Prato to play first....maybe even Prato for third? 

[nicksaviking]

3 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I mean, I'd try Wallner and AK to the outfield, and call up Williams or Prato to play first....maybe even Prato for third? 

I know he's nowhere near anyone's prospect radar, but Prato's strong BB% and K% might be exactly what this club needs.

[LA Vikes Fan]

It is weird because you feel like there need to be some changes but the available players don't project as clear "upgrades" either. Is Aaron Hicks better than Joey Gallo? Maybe, maybe not. It's very hard to see anyone who is available or allegedly available in trade as a clear upgrade to who we already have unless we're willing to pay a significant prospect price.  

I actually think some of the upgrades we need will come as a result of guys returning from injury. Lewis is a clear upgrade at 3d and will upgrade the lineup playing every day and hitting in the 3-6 holes. Polanco is additive on offense in the top 6 spots once we figure out how to play both him and Julien every day (hint, give Polanco some innings at 1B and 3B in the rehab, and put Julien at 1B with Kirlloff in LF a couple of times this week to see how it works.) Stewart and Theilbar should be upgrades in the bullpen over Sands and Pagan/Balazovic when they get back. We've got to put Kuechel on the roster by 7/31 or lose him - is he an upgrade over Maeda? Can Maeda go to the bullpen? 

I think the best way for the Twins to upgrade is to play the guys they have and keep the young productive guys like Kirilloff, Lewis and Julien in the every day lineup once everyone is available. That may mean losing Gallo (I think Kepler's .267/.330/.522 over the last 30 games/90 ABs saved his job), and it may mean either sending Wallner back down or choosing between Castro and Solano unless someone is hurt. Still, hard to see any other way to upgrade without a huge prospect cost. It looks to me like that's a cost we can't afford after last year's trades.   

 

[RpR]

Julien should  be DH seven out of eight games; put him at second once in awhile to experience new adventures in fielding a ball.

Gallo is not going any where but Wallner should be sent down.'

Lose Castro, lose games, ditto for Solanno; no practical way to bring him up outside injury but Stevenson is the best Saints player period.

[Jocko87]

This feels like a year to tidy up around the edges and try to get hot. I'd move Kepler and Gallo for the best rental relievers I could find and roll with Larnach, Wallner and some RH outfield type with options.  When does Helman come back?  Member him?  Maybe Ryan Lamarre can flash for a few weeks.  I wouldn't mind a Lane Thomas but he's probably expensive.  I wouldn't go crazy on the open market for the RH OF.  Gordon coming back will be a complication soon too. 

My thought is that with Stewart and Thielbar coming back just stock the bullpen as best we can and try to pitch our way through.  Lean into the strength and the offense will have to come around.  I like that the roster is solid top to bottom but the stars will have to star to make any noise in the postseason. 

[Fire Dan Gladden]

It makes me laugh to see these types of stories knowing the the first responses will always be:  GALLO and KEPLER.  It's like a mantra...

They are not the problem.  Kepler is your starting OF, but should really be your 8th best player in the lineup.  Defense first OF tend to go that route.  Gallo was not brought in to carry the offense, he was brought in as insurance for 5 positions and has had to play 4 of them extensively.

While we (myself included) were hoping for the rule changes to help these two offensively, it did not come to pass.  Instead, they are playing at the level we pretty much expected.

Please do complain that Solano, Castro, and Jeffers are your fWAR leaders.  All three of these guys were penciled in to be backups.

Lewis and Polanco can't stay healthy.  Buxton, Miranda, Gordon, Correa, Vazquez, have been HORRIBLE. And you guys still want to complain about Kepler and Gallo?

Unless something falls into their lap for cheap, the Twins should really not make any moves right now.  No players readily available are demonstrative upgrades unless you want to overpay for a rental or sell the farm.  I do not see either happening.

Buxton needs to go in the IL until he is 100% healthy.  He is doing more harm than good.  Add Lewis and Polanco to the playing rotation, hope that the positive trending of Correa and Vazquez sticks.  Kiriloff, Julien, Farmer, the rest of that group just need to maintain.  That is what needs to happen.
 

[SwainZag]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

Who do I replace first?

Gallo

Kepler

A third baseman (like, I replace whomever that is now)

I consider replacing Taylor, but I just don't see how they pay the price to do so

I still think that Kepler is going nowhere.   He is a much better defensive OF than AK, Larnach, and Wallner.  His last 22 games he's hitting .278/.338/.514 with an OPS of .851.  I know he's streaky and has a bad rep around here, but he has produced. 

With Lewis more than likely coming back sooner rather than later, I highly doubt they make a move for a 3B, especially with Farmer and Solano getting reps there.

I still think the team should add a RH hitting OF and another bullpen arm.

 

[Mike Sixel]

4 minutes ago, SwainZag said:

I still think that Kepler is going nowhere.   He is a much better defensive OF than AK, Larnach, and Wallner.  His last 22 games he's hitting .278/.338/.514 with an OPS of .851.  I know he's streaky and has a bad rep around here, but he has produced. 

With Lewis more than likely coming back sooner rather than later, I highly doubt they make a move for a 3B, especially with Farmer and Solano getting reps there.

I still think the team should add a RH hitting OF and another bullpen arm.

 

Oh, I agree Kepler is going nowhere, but three weeks of data shouldn't offset three years of it....For the year, and previous years, he has not produced. Not close for a RF on offense. 

I agree they aren't making a move at 3B, but how long will Lewis last this time? What is the most games he's played in a row in 4 years w/o getting hurt? 

For the bullpen, they have Stewart and Thielbar coming back. Assuming you bring back those two, who is the third guy you DFA or send down?

[Danchat]

If the Twins are serious about being a true contender, I believe the bare minimum would be to acquire a 3B, RH OF, and a reliever.

[Brandon]

With the budget that is available on this team, there is probably not much we can do. I doubt the front office will allow the front office to take on more than 5 million in additional payroll at the deadline since we have our highest payroll ever right now.  With that in mind here are the incremental improvements.

I think playing Walner more in favor of who is slumping in the OF.  including Taylor as Gallo or Kepler can slide over for a game or two from time to time.  

With Polanco coming back give Julien starts at DH in place of Buxton if he continues to slump.  Also not opposed to giving him starts at 3B.  

Lewis will be back from the DL soon and will contribute at 3B and possibly DH.

So even if we don't make trades, we have in house improvements on the way.  

But.... here are my trade thoughts.  

If we do, make a trade it needs to be a small one like a RH OF who won't add more than a few million to payroll and that is a maybe.  The low-cost options include to Lane Thomas of Washington (idea from Twins Daily Article) or Tony Pham (Brock posting it and being against it).  I like Boston player Turner if they take a salary back in the trade.  If the Twins receive insurance on Mahle contract, then maybe trading a reliever like Pagan or Lopez would work in a Turner salary level type of trade.  

[JD-TWINS]

Addition/improvement by subtraction:

Buxton to IL for nearly a month…….Gallo DFA’d in 10 days if no trade by deadline.

Removing two guys floundering below the Mendoza Line has to improve your offense - has to improve - right??

We see Polanco by August 4th - Lewis by August 18th. Get to add a guy on September 1 to the roster. I like our chances w/o any trades.

Thielbar & Stewart would help by mid-August!

Sounds like we may want to replace Sands on staff with Kuechel by this weekend or we let Kuechel walk? Interesting guy - could be as bad as our other long relievers to date or may have a little shine in 2-3 inning stints?

[ashbury]

Next headline for Randballs Stu: "Weird Commentator Calls Twins Weird."

The capsule summary (I don't subscribe so I can't see the full exposition) seems to nail the dilemma for the Twins FO though.

[RpR]

31 minutes ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

After reading all your posts I almost feel like we should stand pat now.  There are several players returning which will in essence upgrade our team without giving up prospects in a trade.  We have Theilbar and Stewart in the BP coming back.  We have Polo and Lewis coming back which will interject energy into the lineup, not to mention Gordon.  And I advocate adding Kuechel to the rotation along with Maeda to help reduce the innings for our core starters.  This also can be an audition of sort to determine who the 5th starter should be for the remainder of the year and also as insurance should an injury to one of our main starters occur.  I did not do the hard part of identifying which players get sent down or DFA'd to make room for these additions.  That's what the FO gets paid the big bucks to do.  Make these difficult decisions.

I do not know where they can put Gordon but he will do nothing to improve the team.

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, RpR said:

I do not know where they can put Gordon but he will do nothing to improve the team.

Can’t afford a roster spot to see what Gordon may bring at this point. Best off letting him remain inactive/injured-recovering.

The extra roster spot as of September 1 will not be wasted this year - it may be for the return of Buxton after a long rest - rehab?

[KirbyDome89]

1 hour ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

It makes me laugh to see these types of stories knowing the the first responses will always be:  GALLO and KEPLER.  It's like a mantra...

They are not the problem.  Kepler is your starting OF, but should really be your 8th best player in the lineup.  Defense first OF tend to go that route.  Gallo was not brought in to carry the offense, he was brought in as insurance for 5 positions and has had to play 4 of them extensively.

While we (myself included) were hoping for the rule changes to help these two offensively, it did not come to pass.  Instead, they are playing at the level we pretty much expected.

Please do complain that Solano, Castro, and Jeffers are your fWAR leaders.  All three of these guys were penciled in to be backups.

Lewis and Polanco can't stay healthy.  Buxton, Miranda, Gordon, Correa, Vazquez, have been HORRIBLE. And you guys still want to complain about Kepler and Gallo?

Unless something falls into their lap for cheap, the Twins should really not make any moves right now.  No players readily available are demonstrative upgrades unless you want to overpay for a rental or sell the farm.  I do not see either happening.

Buxton needs to go in the IL until he is 100% healthy.  He is doing more harm than good.  Add Lewis and Polanco to the playing rotation, hope that the positive trending of Correa and Vazquez sticks.  Kiriloff, Julien, Farmer, the rest of that group just need to maintain.  That is what needs to happen.
 

Probably not as hard I as laugh reading the tone of these posts that completely miss the mark....

They absolutely are part of the problem. 

Defense first OFers tend to play CF and be platoon/4th OFers. They aren't stalwarts in RF (a bat first position) with a below average bat. Depending on how much stock you want to put in defensive metrics, Kepler hasn't been anything special defensively this year either. 

Gallo was a bounce back candidate that hasn't worked out. He wasn't some insurance policy and nobody was planning on him "carrying the offense." The guy has been an albatross. He has started 60 games, 53 have been in LF or 1B with a bulk of the latter coming while Kirilloff worked his way back. What are these other two positions he has played "extensively?" 

I don't understand the need to obfuscate reality to justify roster spots for these two. The calculus here is simple, the Twins can (should) move on from both guys next year, and there are replacements deserving of a shot at AAA. 

[LA Vikes Fan]

2 hours ago, SwainZag said:

I still think that Kepler is going nowhere.   He is a much better defensive OF than AK, Larnach, and Wallner.  His last 22 games he's hitting .278/.338/.514 with an OPS of .851.  I know he's streaky and has a bad rep around here, but he has produced. 

With Lewis more than likely coming back sooner rather than later, I highly doubt they make a move for a 3B, especially with Farmer and Solano getting reps there.

I still think the team should add a RH hitting OF and another bullpen arm.

 

I was/is one of Kepler's bigger critics but I agree for now. He has hit .267/.330/.522 over the last 30 games/90 ABs and probably saved his job for this season. I really doubt the Twins trade for a 3B with Lewis back in 2-3 weeks and Polanco back in a few days. They have to have some way of playing Polanco and Julien together. One of them at 3B is one of the short term options.  Stewart should be back in a few weeks and Theilbar a little sooner. Maeda may wind up in the bullpen so Kuechel can come up and start by 7/31 or he'll opt out. With all that happening,  I don't see them paying premium deadline prices for a reliever. 

I think the only realistic upgrade is to bring on a RH hitting OF and then, that player is probably a part time player absent injury. The likely (and perhaps only) way to get Polanco, Julien, Lewis and Kirilloff in the lineup is to either put Buxton on the bench, long term Il or in CF (all unlikely), or put one of those 4 in LF.  I see the lineup when all are back around 8/10 is Lewis at 3B, Correa at SS, Polanco at 2B, a Julien/Solano platoon at 1B, Kepler in RF, Castro/MAT in CF, and Kirilloff in LF.  Farmer the IF UT with Castro and Solano also doing UTL duty. Gallo is a prt time OF?IB?PH who sits more than he starts. Trading for Lane Thomas or Dylan Carlson - both of whom I'd love to have for 2024 when Gallo and maybe Kepler are gone - requires losing Gallo or an injury and probably costs at least a top 15-20 pitching prospect if not one in the 7-10 range.     

I agree that the only options are a RH LF and maybe a BP arm. I don't see the Twins paying much for either one unless it's for a longer term controllable piece, i.e., Thomas or Carlson.  My guess is the price will be too high and what we see is what we got. The quote will be "getting (Lewis, Polanco, Stewart, Theilbar) back is just like a deadline trade upgrade without the cost."  

[LA Vikes Fan]

BTW, Baseball trade Values says Lane Thomas is worth Canterino, Woods-Richardson, Wallner, and Gallo. Gallo is a 0 so he's just a throw in to balance the roster; you can pretend he isn't there. Carlson is worth Wallner, either Woods-Richardson plus or Canterino or Raya, and Gallo.  If you go from Wallner to Larnach you have to add another pitcher like Raya or Festa and maybe get a lottery ticket or expiring contract guy from the Cardinals. Not sure I'd make either deal, maybe the Carlson one. Wallner, Canterino and Gallo for Carlson? Also, the Cardinals want pitching. Canterino, Raya and Gallo for Carlson? Not so sure about either of those.... 

All this just shows me is that getting a quality RH OF is very expensive and probably not worth it. Also makes me wonder if trading Wallner when his value is so high is the right thing to do before the deadline. His value is higher now than it's ever been.  

[Rosterman]

Shut down Buxton is job one, which opens up the DH position.

Ask yourself if someone would actually trade prospects AND take salary releif from the Twins for Kepler and Gallo. If so, let them be gone and replaced by Larnach and Wallner, for now.

If there is any demand for Polanco after a week's play, also take that!

And dangle Madea and/or Gray. Can you get more for Gray or less than if you make him a qualifying offer.

COnsider yourself lucky if you remain on top of the division for the final 65 games, and hope any and everyone you promote from down in AAA is better than those you cut loose.

 

[jmlease1]

2 hours ago, Danchat said:

If the Twins are serious about being a true contender, I believe the bare minimum would be to acquire a 3B, RH OF, and a reliever.

reliever makes some sense; we were a little thin there even before Stewart and Thielbar went down with injury.

It'd be great to balance out the OF with a RH hitter in theory...but who is really available that is going to be a true upgrade, be an impact bat and not spend tons of prospect capital for? Keep in mind that in the Teoscar Hernandez discussion (a player who seems to be down to one skill, hitting lefties) we're still talking about a player than while tied for 3rd on his team in ABs has still only gotten 84 of them against LHP. he's played in every single game for Seattle. So how much impact is a RH OF really going to have?

adding a 3B seems like a waste: Solano is hitting well and can play there, Farmer can play there, and we have Royce Lewis (who was hitting very well) coming back from injury even if Miranda doesn't turn it around. I want Lewis out there when he's healthy again.

[Parfigliano]

4 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

In an early trade deadline roundup, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic wrote a few paragraphs on the Twins and how unusual their path to "contention" has been.

• The Twins' positional fWAR leaders are Donovan Solano, Willi Castro, and Ryan Jeffers
• The Twins' positional fWAR leaders (the three listed above) have only 1.2 fWAR apiece, the lowest in MLB
• Yet the Twins have the most positive fWAR position players in baseball at 16

Those three leaders in fWAR were not intended to be every day starters on Opening Day. This makes the deadline something of a paradox for the Twins. None of their position players are below replacement level yet none of them are actually "good", either.

Who do you replace first at the deadline?

 

View full rumor

 

Replace Buxton at DH.  If not replaced STOP putting him 3rd in the lineup.

[Major League Ready]

6 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Who do I replace first?

Gallo

Kepler

A third baseman (like, I replace whomever that is now)

I consider replacing Taylor, but I just don't see how they pay the price to do so

You know I have been on the move Kepler bandwagon.  However, his wRC+ for the last six weeks in 123 and it seems like his defense has been better too.  Gallo is the guy I would move.  That does not mean I would not trade Kepler but I would want to get something back.

[Mike Sixel]

3 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

You know I have been on the move Kepler bandwagon.  However, his wRC+ for the last six weeks in 123 and it seems like his defense has been better too.  Gallo is the guy I would move.  That does not mean I would not trade Kepler but I would want to get something back.

Three weeks isn't more indicative than the years for me. I get others disagree

[gman]

I suggest we approach this trade deadline as if we have a 15 game lead.  There has not been a real fight for first place in the division all year. Cleveland is discussing trades for some of their starting pitchers. Or at least teams that would like to trade for them are.

Give  Wallner and larnach playing time in the outfield. Put Buxton on the injured list, let Polanco DH and give his legs time off, don't over use Duran.

Let Julian play second. He played all over in the minors, but maybe that's part of his problem now he never got steady playing time at the second.One of those problems of wanting position players who can play all over, they can't play anywhere at gold glove level.

Trade Gallo and Kepler. They won't be back next year and don't be fooled by a sudden hot streak, they're the same guys who did poorly the whole first half. We need to find a couple of guys to play in the outfield next year, or else we'll be hunting an entire outfield in the off season. It doesn't look like Buxton will be back out there and he never play that many games in any season anyway. They need to play Martin in center field and quit putting him at second base. If he is hitting well enough by the end of August, let him rotate with Taylor.

Miranda probably needs surgery or at least long term rest for his shoulder. There is a reason he can't drive the ball. It's hard to hit with one hand. Don't expect him back this year. Don't expect Alcala, Paddock or Canterino for a pitching boost this year.

I think the Twins can win 38 of their last 66 games. Roughly a 600 clip. That should allow them to slowly pull away in the division.

 

[Major League Ready]

14 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Three weeks isn't more indicative than the years for me. I get others disagree

I would not pay attention to 3 weeks either.  I was citing the last 6 weeks.   Not that 6 weeks is a large sample.  However, it's adequate in terms of indicating who is contributing to turning around our stagnant offense.  Just saying ... Kepler has been a net positive of late.   If they could find a 1B, put Kirilloff  LF and Kepler maintains this play, that would not be too bad.  

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

I would not pay attention to 3 weeks either.  I was citing the last 6 weeks.   Not that 6 weeks is a large sample.  However, it's adequate in terms of indicating who is contributing to turning around our offense woes.  Just saying ... Kepler has been a net positive of late.   If they could find a 1B, put Kirilloff  LF and Kepler maintains this play, that would not be too bad.  

He's making me look stupid, and I'm ok with that