Rumor: Rosenthal: The Twins Are Weird and That Makes the Deadline a Challenge

[dxpavelka]

Twins will make a number of moves at the deadline which will receive near universal praise from the local media and fans.  One or more of those moves will not pan out and the team will be ripped by the same fans and media that initially praises the moves.  Twins deadline primer 101.

[chpettit19]

4 hours ago, gman said:

Let Julian play second. He played all over in the minors, but maybe that's part of his problem now he never got steady playing time at the second.One of those problems of wanting position players who can play all over, they can't play anywhere at gold glove level.

They did bounce him around a little in 2021 (18 games in left, 21 at 1B, 23 at 3B), but he played exclusively 2B in 2022, and this year. In his 2+ minor league seasons he has 167 games, and 1438.1 innings at 2B. He didn't really play all over in the minors. They did a couple little test runs with him at other spots in 2021, but he hasn't played anything but 2B (or DH) since 9/10/21.

[Major League Ready]

On 7/19/2023 at 10:28 PM, Mike Sixel said:

He's making me look stupid, and I'm ok with that

Not really.  To expect he continues to do what he has done for the past 3 years is not stupid.    

[Fatbat]

You want weird? Just bring up Brookes Lee from AA and give him 3rd base until RL returns. If Lee is the real deal, keep him here…. 

[Doctor Wu]

16 hours ago, RpR said:

I do not know where they can put Gordon but he will do nothing to improve the team.

What is the status or timeline on Gordon? Will we see him play again this year?

[Doctor Wu]

I think if any moves are made at all before the trade deadline they will be very minor ones. I expect this team will pretty much  look the same 2 months from now. 

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

Kepler won't get traded. I think the bigger question with Max is do the Twins pick up his option for 2024? I'm not condoning that move nor would I criticize it - just throwing it out there. The FO tends to have a tough time saying good bye and with Buxton being such a gigantic ?, even if Kepler isn't a CF, it might make sense to hold onto an outfielder at a reasonable price.

[TwinsDr2021]

I think everything revolves around the 40 man. Right now it is full. So for every player brought in one has to go. They have two guys coming off the 60 day IL at some point (Gordon/Paddack) which means two guys being removed.

So it seems like at a minimum they should be trading a couple of players from the following list: Wallner/Larnach/Miranda/Celestino/SWR/Winder/Headrick/Henrquez and probably a guy or two that requires a 40 man spot next year.

 

[Guest]

Shut down Buxton.  DFA Gallo (note his OBA + SLG exceeds league average), Julien DHs when Polanco returns, move Kepler to CF, Kiriloff to LF, Wallner to RF and wait for the parade of LHSP we'll face....  BTW, I'm betting we see Dallas Kuechel start in August and we shuttle the current SP five through the IL to give them a breather.

[stringer bell]

8 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

I think everything revolves around the 40 man. Right now it is full. So for every player brought in one has to go. They have two guys coming off the 60 day IL at some point (Gordon/Paddack) which means two guys being removed.

So it seems like at a minimum they should be trading a couple of players from the following list: Wallner/Larnach/Miranda/Celestino/SWR/Winder/Headrick/Henrquez and probably a guy or two that requires a 40 man spot next year.

 

The 40-man is not really full. De León hasn’t been placed on the 60-day IL and could at any time. Also, despite what has been reported, Alcalá is still listed on the 15-day IL and could also be transferred. 
 

Recovery from a broken shin (Gordon’s injury) is supposed to be about three months, which would put Gordon out until mid-August and it would figure that he will need a rehab assignment. 

[insagt1]

Gallo and Kepler. Favorite topic apparently. Gallo is Sano at the plate and is better than him defensively. He might still hit 30 dingers. He will also strike out more than anyone else on the roster (not named buxton) He's probably untradeable and he won't be back.

Kepler is a .232 career hitter. He has only achieved that number once since 2017 so its unlikely he will be much better than that. Offensively he has only had one real good season (2019)

where he had power and BA. Right now, he has heated up and has been a significant reason why the Twins offense has perked up. Historically this blip has not been sustainable but he is who he is. They might trade him?

Wallner and Larnach to replace those two? I don't think either of them, as regulars, would be much of an upgrade. We really don't know much about Wallner and Larnach hasn't been all that impressive in his time with the Twins.

Julian has really been a pleasant surprise. If Polanco and Lewis come back healthy Twins don't really need infielders do they? Both can hit are adequate defensively.

Buxton can't play the outfield. And he can't hit. So having him in the lineup right now is of no value at all. Most here feel he is injured and if that is so, he needs to be shut down. He isn't providing anything useful by striking out every other AB (or worse) and looking hopeless doing it. This is a very sad situation because of what he 'could' be, but his body continues to betray him, and finally it seems to be overtaking his ability to perform. Perhaps he should simply not play the rest of 2023 and see if he can somehow really get healthy again.

Pagan...well he's doing a 'Kepler' right now. His last several outings, even in pressure spots, have been decent. but sustainable? Do we trust him? this certainly has been a strange season.

[Aerodeliria]

22 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Who do I replace first?

Gallo

Kepler

A third baseman (like, I replace whomever that is now)

I consider replacing Taylor, but I just don't see how they pay the price to do so

How about Nootbar in center. He's a superior hitter to Taylor, and a very good fielder. I think the Cardinals would be willing to deal him.

[TwinsDr2021]

2 hours ago, stringer bell said:

The 40-man is not really full. De León hasn’t been placed on the 60-day IL and could at any time. Also, despite what has been reported, Alcalá is still listed on the 15-day IL and could also be transferred. 
 

Recovery from a broken shin (Gordon’s injury) is supposed to be about three months, which would put Gordon out until mid-August and it would figure that he will need a rehab assignment. 

I understand that Gordon and Paddack will have a rehab assignment so that takes De Leon and Alcala spot.

So for every player traded for will require a 40 man player sent out or DFA'd at some point. Plus next year more will need to be added, and they can't just add more minor league players to it with promoting current guys on the 40.

That is why it would make sense to trade Larnach or Wallner or Miranda and one or more of those relief type pitchers on the current 40 man but in the minors. And only two guys are under age 24 currently (SWR and Henrquez) and only those two and Lewis will be under 25 when next season starts or shortly after the season starts.

[TwinsDr2021]

1 hour ago, insagt1 said:

Wallner and Larnach to replace those two? I don't think either of them, as regulars, would be much of an upgrade.

💯agree with this, so IMO if either or both go, it will be cause they have brought in a player from another team to replace them. I don't think this front office is going to admit to the mistake of signing Gallo and cutting him and replacing him with an internal option, when one of them hasn't really been good for 3 years and the other they haven't trusted to be in the majors except as a last resort of the 40 man.

[Brandon]

16 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Three weeks isn't more indicative than the years for me. I get others disagree

Last year Kepler was off to a good start till he got hurt which sapped his power if I remember correctly.

[jmlease1]

28 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

I understand that Gordon and Paddack will have a rehab assignment so that takes De Leon and Alcala spot.

So for every player traded for will require a 40 man player sent out or DFA'd at some point. Plus next year more will need to be added, and they can't just add more minor league players to it with promoting current guys on the 40.

That is why it would make sense to trade Larnach or Wallner or Miranda and one or more of those relief type pitchers on the current 40 man but in the minors. And only two guys are under age 24 currently (SWR and Henrquez) and only those two and Lewis will be under 25 when next season starts or shortly after the season starts.

Worry about next year's 40-man next year. there's always some chaff that can be slid off and we will have openings from guys like Gray and Maeda and Solano likely moving on.

And frankly, Nick Gordon has to worry about whether he can get the 26-man spot back. because Julien is not going anywhere, so he's got to show that he's better than Castro and/or Gallo or he's going to be waived. Paddack will need a spot at some point, but he may not complete rehab before the end of the year. But there are still options for the 40-man this season.

[LA Vikes Fan]

1 hour ago, Aerodeliria said:

How about Nootbar in center. He's a superior hitter to Taylor, and a very good fielder. I think the Cardinals would be willing to deal him.

Like the idea, but I've read that the Cardinals are not willing to part with Nootbar. They are wiling to trade Tyler O'Neill and maybe Dylan Carlson. They want pitching close to MLB ready pitching. Willing to part with Woods-Richardson, Canterino, Raya, or Festa? If you think baseball trade rumors is even remotely accurate, Canterino will get you O'Neill, Wood-Richardson plus Enlow or Headrick also will.  Carlson will cost Canterino, Woods-Richardson and Enlow or Headrick at least.  Willing to make any of those deals? Nootbar probably costs all of those guys plus a lot. Realistically, a trade for Nootbar costs us someone like Ober, or Ryan if they throw in a quality reliever to go with Nootbar. Nootbar's not available and waaaay too expensive even if he was.

My thinking is a hard no on O'Neill but maybe on Carlson. Would rather have Lane Thomas from the Nationals, but he probably costs Canterino and Wallner,  or Wallner and Woods-Richardson, plus some AA or A+ guy with potential. Interesting, but expensive. 

My bottom line is that the only OF worth trading real assets for is one that has at least 2024 control when we need OFs with at least Gallo and maybe Kepler gone. That kind of player is going to cost a pretty penny. I'm prepared for the team to either do noting or do a Gallo plus decent prospect for Randal Grichuk kind of deal. Meh, but maybe moves the needle a little. Frankly, given the apparent pricing, I'm fine with a no or meh kind of an approach. 

 

[stringer bell]

50 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

I understand that Gordon and Paddack will have a rehab assignment so that takes De Leon and Alcala spot.

So for every player traded for will require a 40 man player sent out or DFA'd at some point. Plus next year more will need to be added, and they can't just add more minor league players to it with promoting current guys on the 40.

That is why it would make sense to trade Larnach or Wallner or Miranda and one or more of those relief type pitchers on the current 40 man but in the minors. And only two guys are under age 24 currently (SWR and Henrquez) and only those two and Lewis will be under 25 when next season starts or shortly after the season starts.

I don’t see the 40-man as a big issue. With De León and Alcalá done and likely done that clears two spots. Gordon and Paddack would be added to the 40-man no sooner than September and neither is a guarantee. There is a pretty high likelihood that by September there will be other injuries that knock a player off the 40-man and if everybody stays healthy there are several DFA candidates from the bullpen. The roster crunch, such as it is, really is the active roster and particularly bat-first left handed hitters. 
 

Edit to add: most of my thoughts ninja’d by jmlease1. 

[saviking]

Shut down Buxton for the year in hopes he can regain his health next year.

Trade Gallo or cut him. He needs to go.

I could go either way with Farmer but we will most likely need to clear room for when Lewis returns. Castro can be more of a utility infielder if need be. 

And we need to clear room for Polanco as well as keep Julien. Maybe Farmer will have to go at some point. 

[TruthInDuluth]

Hold fast with the roster

plenty of options when there are no injured starters 

but buxton does need to go on IL for remaining season 

 

[Kummel]

Add a bullpen arm.   Get the young players into regular rotation: Julien, Kirilloff, hopefully Lewis soon.   Stay with the lineups that were clicking in 2 games against the Mariners -- the ones without Buxton at DH.   Can he go on the IL indefinitely?  Definitely don't play both Buxton and Gallo (liked the move to pinch hit for Gallo in the Mariner game).  I would move on from Gallo.    Correa and Kepler looking better.   

[P Meyer]

I agree with a lot on here.

 

I think Buxton goes to IL when Polanco gets called up. That solves some problems. While Royce hasn't been reliable from a health standpoint, I don't see the Twins making a move at 3B unless they can for something very cheap. Dumping Gallo seems like a smart move but I don't believe the Twins are an organization who will do that. Kepler isn't the problem but he also isn't really an answer. I think the group/success of Correa, Polanco, Kirilloff, Julien, Lewis/Solano getting consistent work is probably the best road to success for the rest of the year. I don't know how that works with Buxton not being able to play CF. The Buxton decision is baffling to me but I know that has been talked about enough.

 

Ultimately, I would have no problem with the Twins making a move for a good, young player. However, those opportunities are few and far between. Yes, adding a right handed bat, a better 3B, and bullpen help would be nice but it comes down to what you have to give up.

 

 

[stringer bell]

My priority for Twins trades would be: 1) Relief help. Explanation--always plentiful options. The Twins have used Ortega and Pagán in key eighth-inning situations on the just-completed road trip. No need to say more. 2) Right handed or switch hitting outfielder. Explanation--Prefer someone who can adequately play center field. Kepler, Gallo and Kirilloff have gotten too many at-bats against left handed starters. Having a Tommy Pham or Mark Canha in the lineup against a lefty would improve the offense. My preference is Dylan Carlson, but he will cost more than a medium prospect. 3) Third Base. Explanation--Royce Lewis will be out until after the trading deadline. Oblique injuries are notoriously slow-healing. Ideally adding someone who could move to another position makes sense if Royce is coming back before mid-August.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

1 hour ago, P Meyer said:

 

Kepler isn't the problem but he also isn't really an answer.

 

At 100 plate appearances by wRC+ Kepler Ranks 36th in the MLB. That means 5 teams have given 100 plate appearances to two Right Fielders that hit better than Max Kepler.

by OPS he ranks 34

Batting average he ranks 46

Even after a monstrous couple weeks, Max Kepler isn’t an MLB starting Right Fielder, and I think that’s a problem.

 

[RpR]

27 minutes ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

At 100 plate appearances by wRC+ Kepler Ranks 36th in the MLB. That means 5 teams have given 100 plate appearances to two Right Fielders that hit better than Max Kepler.

by OPS he ranks 34

Batting average he ranks 46

Even after a monstrous couple weeks, Max Kepler isn’t an MLB starting Right Fielder, and I think that’s a problem.

 

Yep, put Julien out there where infielders will need a GPS to find his throws.

[Cris E]

Buxton should go to the IL when Polanco comes up. Polanco's defense has looked terrible all year so you can flip a coin to see which of him or Julien gets to DH.

I think Kepler would be a great fit for the Yankees. He's a pro that can handle the big city, he can play CF while Bader is out and RF while Judge recovers, the short RF fence will help him and it's the end of his deal so they aren't on the hook for much.

I think Canha would help our LF mix quite a bit but I don't want to pay much for him. See what NYM are looking for.

I'd trade Miranda for a 3B where someone wants to go younger and cheaper. For example if Boston decides to bail on 2023 he could be part of a Turner deal (but I expect them to hang in way past the point of common sense and not trade anyone.) WAS could be moving rental Jeimer Candelario as well.

I'd trade Maeda for someone who can hit, and maybe throw in a Pagan if someone values him highly. He's only had a couple bad games so you know he has some value to an org that believes in the magic of their pitching coach.

I don't think Gordon will play for the Twins again; there's just too much competition.  Paddack won't be an issue until September. 

 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

2 hours ago, RpR said:

Yep, put Julien out there where infielders will need a GPS to find his throws.

I never said Julien was the answer, only that Kepler is a problem.

the Twins absolutely MUST get more hitting from the outfield, and Kepler (and Taylor) are the two most prominent holes in the lineup out there. Neither one of them should be starting regularly

[ashbury]

3 hours ago, RpR said:

Yep, put Julien out there where infielders will need a GPS to find his throws.

Good snark has a point.  What's yours on this one?

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

I never said Julien was the answer, only that Kepler is a problem.

the Twins absolutely MUST get more hitting from the outfield, and Kepler (and Taylor) are the two most prominent holes in the lineup out there. Neither one of them should be starting regularly

I don't think you are considering what has been happening of late.  It made sense to me to complain about Kepler when he wasn't playing well but that's no longer the case.  I looked back at a date where several players had around 100 ABs since the date.  Kepler's wRC+ in his last 109 ABs is 132.  MAT's is 80.  Kepler is not a problem currently.  Might he regress?  Sure, but it does not make sense to MAt and Kepler in the same boat.  BTW ... In that same period of time Kirilloff has 122 ABs with a 108 wRC+ and Buxton is 37.

It's a small sample but let's consider what's actually happening presently.

[Craig Arko]

Like a surgeon, hey

Cuttin' for the very first time

Like a surgeon

Here's a waiver for you to sign