Rumor: Rosenthal: The Twins Are Weird and That Makes the Deadline a Challenge

[Fred]

On 7/19/2023 at 4:53 PM, LA VIkes Fan said:

I was/is one of Kepler's bigger critics but I agree for now. He has hit .267/.330/.522 over the last 30 games/90 ABs and probably saved his job for this season. I really doubt the Twins trade for a 3B with Lewis back in 2-3 weeks and Polanco back in a few days. They have to have some way of playing Polanco and Julien together. One of them at 3B is one of the short term options.  Stewart should be back in a few weeks and Theilbar a little sooner. Maeda may wind up in the bullpen so Kuechel can come up and start by 7/31 or he'll opt out. With all that happening,  I don't see them paying premium deadline prices for a reliever. 

I think the only realistic upgrade is to bring on a RH hitting OF and then, that player is probably a part time player absent injury. The likely (and perhaps only) way to get Polanco, Julien, Lewis and Kirilloff in the lineup is to either put Buxton on the bench, long term Il or in CF (all unlikely), or put one of those 4 in LF.  I see the lineup when all are back around 8/10 is Lewis at 3B, Correa at SS, Polanco at 2B, a Julien/Solano platoon at 1B, Kepler in RF, Castro/MAT in CF, and Kirilloff in LF.  Farmer the IF UT with Castro and Solano also doing UTL duty. Gallo is a prt time OF?IB?PH who sits more than he starts. Trading for Lane Thomas or Dylan Carlson - both of whom I'd love to have for 2024 when Gallo and maybe Kepler are gone - requires losing Gallo or an injury and probably costs at least a top 15-20 pitching prospect if not one in the 7-10 range.     

I agree that the only options are a RH LF and maybe a BP arm. I don't see the Twins paying much for either one unless it's for a longer term controllable piece, i.e., Thomas or Carlson.  My guess is the price will be too high and what we see is what we got. The quote will be "getting (Lewis, Polanco, Stewart, Theilbar) back is just like a deadline trade upgrade without the cost."  

I like to think of it as Kepler increasing his trade value

[Nine of twelve]

An analogy comes to mind. It's like driving on a winding road behind someone who is going three MPH slower than you want to go. It's frustrating and you want to pass but either there's no opportunity or the risk of making a move is too high for the small increase in speed. So you wind up deciding that the best course of action is to hold your position and hope something changes in your favor.

[cmoss84]

I really like Brady Singer. He would cost a good amount...but wondering if Royals would trade him for prospects. We have many.

Our rotation would pretty much be set for a while. 

[SkyBlueWaters]

Molly Ivins wrote a book titled, "You Got to Dance With Them What Brung You."  That works for both the bringing and the brought. And we bought in on Correa and Buxton.

In the Twins context, the FO went all in on those two, and I'm among those who bought in on both deals. But weirdly, their low offensive production now boxes us in at DH and SS. 

Looking at the hitters who might be available, considering the fungible players we might have, and how much I like young talent like Lewis, Kiriloff, Wallner, Julien, even Larnach, I don't want to see a deal made out of desperation. 

The Twins had one of the toughest schedules in MLB in the first half. It's much easier in the second half. E.g., in the notorious "small sample sizes" we did ok against NYY, 4-3; Hou, 4-2; SDP, 2-1; and Milw, 2-0; which makes 3-4 against both Cleve and Detroit all the more annoying, to say nothing of the two series sweeps, Balt and Tampa.

What trade value might Kepler have? I'm skeptical any possible deal, for the available players, is going to be a net positive. I'd like to see possibilities for a super-utility player (like Marwin Gonzalez once provided). But I'm not optimistic. And I'm leery of a deal made out of desperation.

Molly Ivins (who cut her reporter teeth at the Mpls Tribune, much as she hated the cold) had it right. I think we're going to dance with them what brung us, and if our hitters can make some adjustments, that might work out. 

 

[JesusisLord7]

There are two players I'd like to see the Twins obtain at the trade deadline. 

#1) Josh Hader. Having a left handed lock down reliever to accompany Duran would be priceless. We have something special in Duran and Hader is comparable from the left side. 

 

#2) Cody Bellenger. The Michael Taylor thing is getting old. Bellinger has won the World Series and hit 47 HR's one year. The power is not there this year but he is hitting +.300 and can play center field well and hit lefties. Or at the very least give Andrew Stevenson a try from St. Paul. He is having a great year. 

[Hubie29]

On 7/19/2023 at 4:18 PM, LA VIkes Fan said:

BTW, Baseball trade Values says Lane Thomas is worth Canterino, Woods-Richardson, Wallner, and Gallo. Gallo is a 0 so he's just a throw in to balance the roster; you can pretend he isn't there. Carlson is worth Wallner, either Woods-Richardson plus or Canterino or Raya, and Gallo.  If you go from Wallner to Larnach you have to add another pitcher like Raya or Festa and maybe get a lottery ticket or expiring contract guy from the Cardinals. Not sure I'd make either deal, maybe the Carlson one. Wallner, Canterino and Gallo for Carlson? Also, the Cardinals want pitching. Canterino, Raya and Gallo for Carlson? Not so sure about either of those.... 

All this just shows me is that getting a quality RH OF is very expensive and probably not worth it. Also makes me wonder if trading Wallner when his value is so high is the right thing to do before the deadline. His value is higher now than it's ever been.  

I would do that trade every day of the week in my sleep! It doesn't even seem like fair compensation for Thomas. He alone could turn this offense around in the lead off position. Power, speed and hits for average.