These 5 Stats at the Halfway Point Tell the Story of the 2023 Twins So Far

[Nick Nelson]

On Tuesday night, the Minnesota Twins played their 81st game of the season – a nice tidy dividing line in the 162-game schedule, making for simple on-pace projections.

Here are five player stats that explain why the Twins have been such a disappointing sub-.500 team up to this point.

Image courtesy of Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports

1. Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa are both on pace to finish with 1.2 fWAR.

This is the banner headline of the Twins season so far, and one that oddly seems to get buried amid complaints about bullpen management, lineup construction, Emilio Pagán lapses, prospect timelines, and otherwise. 

I get it, because when things are going as poorly as they are, people want to project blame and assign villains. 

Unfortunately, to get to the bottom of what's fundamentally hindering this team, we need look no further than the promised heroes: two most talented, highly-paid, and (arguably) likable players on the roster. Correa and Buxton, earning a combined $50 million, have completely let this team down in the first half and there is no other way to put it. 

To provide some context around this pitiful pace for 1.2 fWAR, which would be lower than Gary Sanchez's final mark as a Twin last year: it would be easily the lowest of either players' career in a remotely full season. 

Here are Buxton's fWAR totals from the past four years:

• 2023, halfway: 0.6 (63 games)
• 2022: 4.0 (92 games)
• 2021: 4.1 (61 games)
• 2020: 1.2 (39 games)
• 2019: 3.0 (37 games)

Here's a comparative look at Correa's track record in fWAR:

• 2023, halfway: 0.6 (71 games)
• 2022: 4.4 (136 games)
• 2021: 6.4 (148 games)
• 2020: 1.2 (58 games)
• 2019: 3.8 (75 games)

Because they've historically offered outstanding defense at premium positions, Correa and Buxton have been consistent sources of value, even in injury-shortened seasons. That is not the case this year. Buxton's defensive impact has been eliminated by DH duty, while Correa's defense – still good, albeit not resembling its peak – doesn't do nearly to offset a .287 on-base percentage and abundance of GIDPs.

Two proven star players, in their prime, contributing like random role players, even as they've been able to stay on the field. It is a stunning and devastating failure from the duo in which this team invested its present and future hopes. 

Twin tragedies. Can Correa and Buxton reverse this depressing storyline in the second half? If they don't, the Twins franchise will be in a dire state coming out of this season, regardless of what decisions are made in the fallout.

2. Willi Castro leads all Twins position players in fWAR (1.1) and is on pace for 382 plate appearances.

The downside of this note is that Castro – a minor-league signing during the offseason after being discarded by the lowly Tigers – has produced nearly as much fWAR in the first half as Correa and Buxton combined. And the fact that he's on pace for nearly 400 PAs says a lot about the team around him.

But it also speaks to how Castro has earned his way into a larger role than expected, providing reasonably decent offensive production, defensive versatility, and aggressive speed on the bases, where he is 15-for-15 on steal attempts. 

For all the negatives across the position-player corps this year, Castro has been a legitimate positive, and one whose impact could stretch beyond this season as a controllable 26-year-old asset. 

Theoretically, when the rest of the lineup gets going and Castro's role is reduced, he'll be a really nice bench piece to have around.

3. Joey Gallo is on pace to finish with 26 home runs ... and 52 RBIs.

Gallo's all-or-nothing production profile epitomizes that of the team at large, which is why he's grown so unappealing to watch. The veteran slugger can still take one deep from time to time – a 26-HR season is nice, on its own – but has almost no ability to contribute outside of these occasional pop-offs. Twenty-three of Gallo's 26 RBIs this year have come on home runs. And 14 of them came in the first month.

Since April 27th, Gallo – signed to be a run-producing power hitter – has produced 12 RBIs in 45 games. He opened up his second half by going 0-for-3 with three strikeouts in a shutout on Wednesday. 

(By the way, the same dynamic is in play for Buxton, who's on pace for 26 home runs and 56 RBIs. In the first half, 23 of Buck's 28 runs batted in were on homers. These veteran players are figureheads for an offense that can't seem to accomplish anything outside of occasionally hitting the ball over the fence.)

4. Christian Vázquez is on pace to finish with 2 home runs. 

The Twins didn't think they were getting any kind of offensive specialist when they signed Vázquez to a three-year contract during the offseason, but thought they were at least acquiring a competent hitter – part of the valuation that pushed them to $30 million in a competitive market. The free agent had slashed .271/.318/.416 over the past three seasons (94 OPS+), and even with a modest step back from that benchmark, he was still gonna be a quality two-way backstop.

Instead, Vazquez's offensive game has cratered in Minnesota, where he finished the first half with an OPS+ of 68. He slugged .292 with just one single home run in 180 plate appearances. In the past four seasons Vázquez hit 9, 6, 7, and 23 home runs. His power has suddenly vanished at the age of 32, which doesn't bode terribly well for the rest of his deal here. 

To be fair, Vázquez's offensive numbers aren't that out of the ordinary for a catcher (the position as a whole is slashing .233/.300/.384 MLB-wide) and his good defense has prevented him from being a total negative. But so far, the Twins have gotten only half the player they hoped they were signing at a crucial spot.

5. Joe Ryan, Sonny Gray, and Pablo Lopez are all on pace for 4.4+ fWAR.

Hey, it's not all bad news! The Twins rotation was phenomenal in the first half, led by a trio of frontline-caliber arms who will set the club up well for a playoff series, if some of the above trends are to turn around. Ryan, Gray and Lopez all finished the first half with an fWAR of 2.2 or better, placing each among the top eight in the American League. 

Here's a list of Twins pitchers who have finished seasons with an fWAR of 4.4 or higher in the past 25 years:

• Jose Berrios (2019)
• Phil Hughes (2014)
• Francisco Liriano (2010)
• Johan Santana (2004, '05, 06)
• Brad Radke (2001, '04)

That is a "who's who" of the best pitchers and pitching seasons in the post-millennial era of Twins baseball. Only once, in 2004, have the modern Twins had two pitchers of this caliber in same rotation, and never three. 

If these three can continue to perform the way they have in the first half for the final three months, while Bailey Ober, Kenta Maeda, and others hold down the back end of the rotation, it's going be very hard to give up on this team.

View full article

[tony&rodney]

About as accurate of a wrap as possible. 

Almost every game there is an at bat where a key hit would turn the game. Almost every game ... failure with risp. There are a couple of players who can be jettisoned right now. The pitchers keep us in every game.

In other news, St. Paul was fun to watch hit today. It just felt like the team was going to win from the beginning and then to walk off on a comeback grand slam was fun. A couple of these guys can help now.

[jkcarew]

…If these three can continue to perform the way they have in the first half for the final three months, while Bailey Ober, Kenta Maeda, and others hold down the back end of the rotation, it's going be very hard to give up on this team.

 

Not for me. Gotta make the tough decisions. Trade Gray. It’s the right thing to do.

[PDX Twin]

Buxton, Gallo, and Correa are like expensive speed bumps in the Twins' offense. It seems like every time the rest of the team starts to get something started, one of them comes up and strikes out or grounds into a DP to slow things back down.

[MABB1959]

I actually got to watch a live game and one thing I think I noticed is they have trouble with battling pitches.  There is a baseball term for this but the at bats are quick and they can’t work a count to force the opposing pitcher to throw many more pitches.  I hop that makes sense and remember I don’t get to watch many games thanks to Bally.  Any updates on Bally’s nd the Twins?

[USAFChief]

Here's the bad news: I don't think there's any possibility the starting pitching is as good in the 2nd half. 

Some ideas:

1. At a minimum, they HAVE to change hitting coaches, immediately. And hitting philosophy. This is ridiculous. How can someone be hired for a job, produce such awful results, and keep that job? Would any person reading this keep your job with similar results? I'd fire the manager too, he's not very good at it, but at LEAST the hitting coach(s).

2. Buxton is in CF 6 days a week, or on the IL. "Physically incapable?" Then IL him. But I don't buy that line for a second. 

3. Gallo, Kepler, Pagan are gone, by tomorrow. Might not help but it might and at least we'd be losing without wasting time on things that just aren't ever going to be assets.

4. Something needs to change with minor league drafting and/or development. Failure after failure. How do we not have a single lineup centerpiece after this much time? Sheesh.

Start with that 

[tony&rodney]

9 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Here's the bad news: I don't think there's any possibility the starting pitching is as good in the 2nd half. 

I think the starting pitchers are for real. We are halfway though the year and the starts have been well above expectations on the whole. which is truly amazing when one considers the poor offense and largely mediocre defense. Pablo Lopez has been decent and might be better in the second half. I think Ryan and Ober should be close to their first half performances. Maeda and others will fill in with respectable fifth starter stints. Gray was so good the first half that one would expect some decline, but Sonny is fired up for his chance to be a free agent and his focus will be at a high level. Good things can happen.

[Vanimal46]

These stats tell me all I need to know about the Twins and their playoff hopes:

The Twins have scored 2 runs or less in 13 out of 26 games in June. 

The Twins have scored 2 runs or less in 31 out of 82 games. 

Since May 1, the Twins are performing at a 90 loss per 162 game pace. 

Aaron Gleeman tweeted something like this recently… Who knew the slow offensive start in April would be the high point of the season?

[Rod Carews Birthday]

Love me some Willi Castro.  He's a fun player to watch and an obvious asset.  The fact that he is leading position players in WAR is frightening.  There is a list of about 6 or 7 players that should be ahead of him on this -- starting with the obvious Buxton and Correa, but also including Polanco, Vazquez, Miranda, Gallo, and maybe more. 

I do think the pitching staff can hang together, but I fear it might not be enough.

 

[Guest]

It took until the 82nd game for Baldelli to finally say, "that's not good baseball"?  Things are pretty easy at Club Rocco.  Vasquez and Gallo haven't been worth their contracts.  Correa has been playing through a painful foot injury, but doesn't adjust even when he's healthy; shut him down until he wants to play.  Same for Buck.  Same for Polanco.  There's a large lack of "want-to" on this team.  But thanks, Rocco, for finally saying what we've all known this year:  strikeouts matter.

[Rosterman]

The Twins rotation is so strong, but they just can't win games. Ryan 8-5, Lopez 3-5, Gray 4-2. Ober 4-4, Varland 3-3, Madea 1-5, Mahle 1-2 - that's 24-26! The offense IS NOT putting their hard work into a position to win games, especially fater a fine performance.

You can afford to have a weak catcher, if he frames, throws out runners, calls a good game. Maybe Vasquez and Jeffers combined will be above the norm. You can play Taylor in centerfield if he gives you Buxton-style fielding, and is allowed to try and do things in a game...a bit of power, ability to bunt, steal a base. 

But you can't win games if four more guys are basically doing nothing, especially with the hap-hazard way Rocco forms a batting order.

When Julien, Kirilloff, Lewis are you best three starters on the field, but they are surpassed in play by a bench of Farmer, Castro, Solano and Jeffers, something IS NOT right in TwinsTown! Even with Arraez in the line-up (replacing who - Lewis, Julien, Kirilloff) he can get on base all he wants, but the strikeouts are still happening - BIGTIME!

Applaud the rotation. Be happy with a bullpen that started the season with Thielbar, Alcala, Sands, Lopez and now have Headrick, Balazovic, Ortega, Winder trying to carve a future as Twins mainstays. Although WHY the Twins haven't brought up Patrick Murphy is beyond me (or, better yet, hungry guys like Stevenson, Contreras, Williams - not to mention Wallner).

[mikelink45]

I am sad - I wanted to have a team that inspired and fought!  But we have a team with Correa/Buxton/Kepler/Vasquez/Gallo killing any momentum and still being given valuable ABs.  We have a hitting coach with no accountability.  We have a player given a minor league contract who is out performing all our veterans.

Gray is having a hard time getting another win and Lopez has become a league average pitcher.  Ober is someone we worry about as his innings increase and Ryan is still not the Ace when it comes to the elite teams we face.

The BP now is without Steward and Thielbar and we have only one arm we all expect to succeed.  

So what now Falvey and Levine?  Don't give away any more prospects to get the golden ring.  Figure this out.  It is your team.

[gman]

The lineup shouldn't be based on the highest priced players in the middle. Mix everybody up in the other spots, but put the most expensive in the middle. Exception is Gallo, I think he's third most expensive. But I guess you can't have 5 guys batting 9th.

[D.C Twins]

'which would be lower than Gary Sanchez's final mark as a Twin last year'

I threw up in my mouth a little when I read this... 

[D.C Twins]

Past time to shut Buck down for as long as it takes for him to play in the field again.

If he cannot ever play the field again, I feel terrible for him.

BUT, tough decisions will then have to be made by management, because there is no evidence that he is a natural DH to pencil in for the next 6 years. 

[weitz41]

For lack of a better or more polite way to put it..The offensive problem is in the cover photo..With the platoon obsession. Correa and Buxton are the only real regulars. HOPEFULLY Correa turns it on in September and Buxton manages to make it through the WHOLE season as a DH. If not for how bad the Al central is, we would and probably should be talking about who we can trade..

[tarheeltwinsfan]

2 hours ago, PDX Twin said:

Buxton, Gallo, and Correa are like expensive speed bumps in the Twins' offense. It seems like every time the rest of the team starts to get something started, one of them comes up and strikes out or grounds into a DP to slow things back down.

May I add Kepler this the above list?

[tarheeltwinsfan]

I read somewhere that Willie Mays said that he loved baseball so much, he would play for nothing. That may be so for Willie Mays, but look at the position players featured in this  dynamic article by Nick Nelson. Which player on the 26 man team has the most "financial" incentive to play  the hardest? Who must scratch and claw every time he is on the field, in order to stay on the 26 man roster and be paid as a major leaguer? I contend it is Willi Castro. The man is a competitor because he has to be in order to get major league pay and to get a good contract next year, where he can make some big money and be set financially for life for the first time in his baseball career. Now ask yourself, which 4 position players mentioned in the article by Nick, have the least "financial" incentives to succeed? Is it the player who:  1) Has an 11 million dollar guaranteed contract this year based on a piss poor prior year, because he can hit a home run 25 times, even though, if he played regularly he would set a major league record for strikeouts ( nothing good   ever comes from a strikeout) and field well at a position which normally is used to hide a team's poorest fielders? 2) Who is guaranteed 200 million dollars no matter how he plays? 3) Who is guaranteed 100 million dollars, no matter how he plays? 4) Who is guaranteed 30 million dollars, no matter how he plays? There is a fifth player  I must include in my comment and that is 5) Max  Kepler, who is an enigma to me for a number of reasons, but by the end of this season will have earned almost 33 million dollars from the Twins. I don't know about you, but  33 million dollars earned in a lifetime is an amount I can only imagine.  Kepler is being paid 8.5 million dollars (another figure I can only imagine) this year alone, no matter how many times he hits a two hopper to the second baseman, refuses to hit the ball to the opposite field and sometimes dogs it in the OF. These 5) have the least "financial" incentives to succeed, to play well, to do the little things that lead to team wins. to perform, to compete, to claw and scratch.  I'm limiting my questions here to "financial" incentives only. Is there a correlation? I have no way of knowing what motivates each of these baseball players, but I  do know this:  I love my job, but I go to work every day for the money.

[miller761]

Any chance Polanco can wear a 1B mitt?

[Blyleven2011]

Here's a stat your going to throw up in your mouth with ....

 

I just checked in on cleveland / royals game and cleveland is winning big time , 14 to Nothing  in the seventh  ...

The bad news Stat  will be twins will be in second place ....

We've been asking for accountability , changes and here we are losing our first place title second year in a row  ...

Changes are coming to late once again  ...

[Eris]

I would add team strikeouts to the list. (Although some players, like Gallo and Buxton are on the list because of K’s). I can’t remember a Twins team the had so many poor quality at bats. 

[curt1965]

As usual-Nick’s article is spot on.

In my opinion, the 3 biggest areas of Concern:

1.) Buxton- either he plays CF, or send him to IL until he can.

2.) Get rid of Gallo-this one is on the FO. They knew what they were getting!

3. Stop platooning! How are our best LH hitters supposed to improve if they always sit against LH pitchers? Play your best damn players.

4. Get Polanco healthy.

 

 

 

[Markdumont25]

I'm an optimistic by nature and love the Twins so I usually remain hopeful about the teams prospects and will find any slice of positivity to focus on...but this is as frustrated as I can ever remember being with this team. There's too much talent and the level of competition is too weak for this to be acceptable. The organizational approach ( coaching and upper management) has failed. Watching quality starts being squandered over and over while the strikeouts and RISP failures pile up is so painful. I love baseball and the twins but they are simply not fun to watch right now. Their hitting approach is particular is awful. Dealing the best contact hitter in the league while going all in on the all or nothing approach is clearly not working. Rest is nice but your players bodies need enough action to be conditioned to actually play without breaking. Im thinking it's time for a change of management, not because of personnel or in game decision making but I think their overall philosophy has been fundamentally shown to not be effective.

[Wilco1]

Watching this team is depressing for a real twins fan. Everyday I look at the line up of the day and just don’t understand what the heck Rocco is thinking. Even the starters can’t be sure they will be in the game by the 3rd inning. Rocco’s decision's seem to be made by which crappy reliever the manager of the other team brings in to pitch. Then he’ll pull a Julian or Lewis or a kirriloff for Anyone who bats from the other side of the plate. I can remember Rocco pinch hitting for Lewis with a player with a .190 batting average. I understand the analytics but how are these young players ever going to improve if  never given a chance in a pressure situation?  I’m not so sure the players haven’t  given up on Rocco. This team has the talent so one reason could be that he has lost the clubhouse. If that’s the case Rocco should be replaced before we fall farther behind Cleveland and soon Detroit and Chicago. The way we are going I really believe Kansas City is the only team we might finish ahead of. If that’s the case then Rocco would have to go anyway. I’ll continue to watch the twins until they fall into 3rd place, then turn my attention to anything else. I would love to ask the pollad ownership take a good look at what falvey has accomplished since taking over the twins and think about making some changes. 

[NotAboutWinning]

If you want to remember what entertaining baseball looks like… go to a Saints game. You are more likely to see a dozen runs than a dozen strikeouts!

[Doctor Wu]

11 hours ago, D.C Twins said:

Past time to shut Buck down for as long as it takes for him to play in the field again.

If he cannot ever play the field again, I feel terrible for him.

BUT, tough decisions will then have to be made by management, because there is no evidence that he is a natural DH to pencil in for the next 6 years. 

Agreed. Shut down both Buxton and Correa, or just admit that they have peaked in their late 20s and will never be impact players again. Okay, that's harsh, but what we are seeing this year is not encouraging.

[Whitey333]

This team has been stagnant since the start if the 2021 season.  They look and play as if they are not interested.  A shakeup of some sort is needed soon.  Too many veterans on this team that are just going through the motions.  Not nearly enough accountability and responsibility taken for their lackluster attitude and performance. 

[HokieRif]

At this point the only games that are getting my attention are the mid-week afternoon games.  Spending time in the evenings to watch this team play is a horrible way to invest my time right now.

As for the players... Buxton is just off.  He needs to do what Lopez is done and take a mental health break.  His decision to try and score on a ball hit to the left side yesterday is something you get washed out of your head in little league, but he did it any way.  I could complain about every other position player except for 4 - Jeffers, Lewis, Castro, and Kirilloff.  At least those four are trying.

[TwinsDr2021]

14 hours ago, Rosterman said:

(or, better yet, hungry guys like Stevenson, Contreras, Williams - not to mention Wallner).

With the way the 40 man roster is constructed, it is hard to add more mid to late 20 year olds to it. The 40 man is loaded with unproven older guys. (Larnach, Miranda, AK, Wallner, Julien, Winder, Sands, Headrick, Canterino, Alcala, Lewis)  That is 25% of the 40 man, sure Lewis looks like a keeper, maybe Julien, the rest as of now are just players,

Looking at the 40 man on the non-pitching side, there are two obvious to get rid of (Kepler and Gallo) but then who? Nobody they are going to cut so it would have to be a trade, and who of the above mentioned players are going to return anything? Plus at some point Gordon is coming back and another decision will need to be made. Plus who at the end of the year goes away? Taylor and Solano and more unproven players will need to be added.

On the they are screwed because none of the following at taken a job AK, Larnach, Celestion, Wallner, Miranda.

 

[PopRiveter]

15 hours ago, USAFChief said:

Here's the bad news: I don't think there's any possibility the starting pitching is as good in the 2nd half. 

Some ideas:

1. At a minimum, they HAVE to change hitting coaches, immediately. And hitting philosophy. This is ridiculous. How can someone be hired for a job, produce such awful results, and keep that job? Would any person reading this keep your job with similar results? I'd fire the manager too, he's not very good at it, but at LEAST the hitting coach(s).

2. Buxton is in CF 6 days a week, or on the IL. "Physically incapable?" Then IL him. But I don't buy that line for a second. 

3. Gallo, Kepler, Pagan are gone, by tomorrow. Might not help but it might and at least we'd be losing without wasting time on things that just aren't ever going to be assets.

4. Something needs to change with minor league drafting and/or development. Failure after failure. How do we not have a single lineup centerpiece after this much time? Sheesh.

Start with that 

Pretty hard to try and counter any of this. If I was assigned the opposing viewpoint in a debate and you led with this, I'd feign illness and go home.