Will the Twins Pursue Aaron Judge?

[Cody Christie]

Aaron Judge is completing one of the best walk years in MLB history. Can the Twins surprise the baseball world for the second straight year and sign one of baseball’s top free agents?

 

Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson, USA TODAY Sports

 

The Yankees offered Aaron Judge a seven-year, $213.5 million extension last spring, but it was an offer he could refuse. He bet on himself, arguably having the best walk-year in MLB history. He finished the season with an AL-record 62 home runs, and only Luis Arraez kept him from winning the Triple Crown. Now, Judge has an opportunity to shine in October before hitting the free agent market for the first time in his career. 

Judge is the likely AL MVP, and he will become a free agent heading into his age-31 season. For reference, Carlos Correa, who is likely heading back to the free agent market, is two years younger than Judge. Both players project to get massive long-term deals, and the Twins will have payroll flexibility this winter. Does that mean the Twins have room to add Judge?

Like many players, Judge has seen up-and-down seasons throughout his professional career. He burst onto the scene as a rookie in 2017 as he led the AL in home runs (52), RBI (128), and walks (127) on his way to being named Rookie of the Year. Injuries impacted his next three seasons, but he still posted a 146 OPS+ when on the field. To produce like his rookie season, Judge needed to adjust his routines to stay healthy regularly.

Over the last two seasons, Judge has averaged over 150 games per year because he is “being smarter” about his preparation. The results speak for themselves. Judge has averaged 152 games per season since the start of 2021 with a 180 OPS+. During his monster 2022 season, he led the AL in runs, home runs, RBI, walks, OBP, SLG, OPS, OPS+, and total bases. It was a memorable season, and now he will make significantly more than the $217.5 million the Yankees offered him this spring. 

Minnesota has the potential to hand out a long-term contract this winter to one of baseball’s most prominent free agents, but Judge might not fit the team’s long-term plans. The Twins have multiple outfield options heading into the 2023 season. Byron Buxton signed long-term, and Max Kepler is entering the final guaranteed year of his contract. The club also has three young outfielders (Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach, and Matt Wallner) that will need playing time in the corner outfield spots. Not all these players are guaranteed to be healthy, so Minnesota will need outfield depth entering the 2023 campaign. 

Obviously, any team can find room in the lineup for a player of Judge’s caliber, but other top free agents might be a better fit in Minnesota. Correa already has an established relationship with many of the Twins’ young players and has a chance to provide more value since he is younger. Even coming off his monster season, Judge’s free agent market might not play out perfectly, and this could allow a surprise team to emerge. The Twins have done this in recent years with Correa and Josh Donaldson. 

It seems most likely for Judge to return to New York and sign a contract that keeps him in pinstripes for the rest of his career. However, Judge might be looking for a different market if he feels the Yankees gave him a lowball offer last spring. 

Do you want the Twins to pursue Judge this winter? Does he fit with Minnesota’s long-term plan? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

 

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[LewFordLives]

Not happening. It's fun to think about, but there's no way he leaves the Yankees. There's too much at stake for both sides.

[Nine of twelve]

Who wouldn't want to have Aaron Judge? But there is no way the Twins will be able to match the offers he will receive elsewhere. Not even close. Big money teams will make big offers, if for no other reason than to jack up the amount the Yankees will be forced to pay. I'll bet the Red Sox will be prominent in that group of teams. (Wonder what Judge would look like with a beard.?) But don't get any ideas; the Yankees *will* be signing him in the end. It's the same situation in which the Twins found themselves in 2010, only amplified to a ridiculous degree. The Twins knew they had no choice other than to meet Mauer's signing requirements, and Mauer and his agent knew that too. The same thing applies here. The Yankees have the wherewithal to beat any other offer and still be OK financially. The Yankees know it, and Judge and his agents know it. And Yankee fans know it. That fan base would be beyond irate if he lands anywhere else. The only thing we don't know yet is how much the Yankees will wind up spending.

[Ex-Iowegian]

Not a chance that he leaves NY. The fans would go ballistic.

[chinmusic]

Seriously? They'd have a better chance signing Judge Judy.?

[Squirrel]

Is this satire?

[mikelink45]

We have gone from replacing Kyle Garlick to signing Aaron Judge - is this Garlick's replacement?  If so I hope he can hold up his end of the bargain.  

When a team blows up like ours, when the season careens to a crashlanding I guess these are the things we have to dream about - it will be a long winter. 

[spanman2]

I'm going to use this as a joke at parties....it's gold!

[RJA]

I opened TD site this morning to find this article right above one asking if the Twins should upgrade from Kyle Garlick.  Judge would be a small upgrade I think :).  

[Doctor Gast]

Judge was jokingly suggested for a Kyle Garlic upgrade. But it will never happen on all accounts. MN have greater needs where they need to spend their $ and Judge has greater needs than what he can find in MN. But it's a nice dream.

[I wish the twins were good]

Get them clicks!

[Karbo]

Not going to happen. Better off signing Correa IMO.

[adjacent]

For ex Yankees out fielders, we might not have Judge, but we have Jake Cave. Ain't the same??

[baul0010]

If Judge is willing to take a 1 year 36 mil deal ... Then yes!

[dberthia]

LOL. Is it April 1st already?

[ashbury]

I don't think Judge could handle the pressure of playing in Minnesota. Pass.

[DocBauer]

He's not leaving NY. He knows it, his agent knows it, the fans know it, we know it. The question is for how much and how long.

How about we talk about realistic options for 2023?

[Blyleven2011]

If you want fans back in the stands you sign judge  , 45 million per season  for 3 years with opt out after each year ...

NOT A CHANCE  ...

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Randball Stu on a Sunday, how did we get so lucky for such hilarity twice in one week?!

[Riverbrian]

Obviously a Dry sense of humor on display. 

 

[dxpavelka]

Judge would certainly qualify as outfield depth.

[Rosterman]

There is a good chance that could happen! I mean, who wouldn't want to play for a team that seldom beats the Yankees!

[tony&rodney]

Free agents get to choose where they want to play in baseball. The contracts are rarely an issue. The allocation of the budget does constrain most teams. Most people expect Judge to return to the Yankees. What if the Twins decided to get creative by slashing/trading players from their roster who are mostly just average guys in favor of some extreme plan? Not going to happen but then again .... Correa would never play for the Twins.

[Craig Arko]

Sure, but sign Verlander first.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

58 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Free agents get to choose where they want to play in baseball. The contracts are rarely an issue. The allocation of the budget does constrain most teams. Most people expect Judge to return to the Yankees. What if the Twins decided to get creative by slashing/trading players from their roster who are mostly just average guys in favor of some extreme plan? Not going to happen but then again .... Correa would never play for the Twins.

The willingness/probability of something like this to actually happen depends on if you saw the Donaldson trade as a planned and causal move specifically to sign Correa, or if you saw the moves independently and Correa just fell into the Twins’ lap.

I think the FO was offloading Donaldson independently and Correa just fell in their lap.

[RpR]

I looked at Judge's first year at Baseball Ref; his first year is in many ways similar to Wallner this year, IF, a big IF, the Twins can get Wallner to do the work to improve his play, the way Judge did, then they MAY have theri version of Judge.

Next year will determine if Wallner is a Bonanza or Bust.

[tony&rodney]

17 minutes ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

The willingness/probability of something like this to actually happen depends on if you saw the Donaldson trade as a planned and causal move specifically to sign Correa, or if you saw the moves independently and Correa just fell into the Twins’ lap.

I think the FO was offloading Donaldson independently and Correa just fell in their lap.

I think the Twins were jettisoning salary to some degree with Donaldson. I believe Correa fell into their lap at the same time that concern for attendance was an issue. Then again, I cannot understand what ideas are being hatched during these Falvey years. I just roll with what happens because there isn't much of an option.

I am curious to know whether the Twins would actually even be interested in Aaron Judge. Money is not an issue if the salaries of many medium players are removed.

[ashbury]

2 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Free agents get to choose where they want to play in baseball. The contracts are rarely an issue. The allocation of the budget does constrain most teams. Most people expect Judge to return to the Yankees. What if the Twins decided to get creative by slashing/trading players from their roster who are mostly just average guys in favor of some extreme plan? Not going to happen but then again .... Correa would never play for the Twins.

After Correa didn't get what he wanted, perhaps other teams weren't willing to put their necks into a $105M noose for an upside of one all-star caliber SS season and then goodbye?

[ashbury]

23 minutes ago, RpR said:

Next year will determine if Wallner is a Bonanza or Bust.

Or, follows Max Kepler's career arc and plods along for a decade or so.

[Twins GFP]

Not 100% convinced he will be going back to the Yankees, but I laughed when I saw this headline.

 

TIER 1 - Yankees or Dodgers

TIER 2 - a small (greater than zero) chance for San Diego, Chicago WS, Boston, Texas, California-Los Angeles-Anaheim Angels.