REPORT: Twins Working to Acquire Padres RHP Chris Paddack

[LewFordLives]

What's Paddock worth straight up? I don't think I would even give them Larnach. Paddock is young and controllable, but he's also been terrible the last two seasons. I would rather see Winder get a chance. (Yesterday was the first time I saw Winder pitch. Count me in as one of the true believers.).    They don't need Paddock. The guys at St Paul would give the Twins a better chance to win 

[nicksaviking]

6 minutes ago, howeda7 said:

This trade might have made sense in December. But saying you're contending and then trading your closer the day before opening day for a non-sure thing starter is just bizarre and does not help you in 2022 even if it's a good trade long-term. If they're trying to win in 2022, this is foolish. If they're not trying to win in 2022, fine, but then WTF were the last 3 weeks about.

I haven’t seen anything indicating they’re contending. Looks like they’re letting the kids play this year.

Which honestly is fine, because I’ve seen this club’s idea of “contending” and it usually includes a bunch of vets on the brink of obsolescence,

[Devilsadvocate]

58 minutes ago, MN_ExPat said:

Gore straight up for Rogers would be a steal (at least in current moment) for the Padres.

If you think the Padres would give up a big time prospect like Gore for a year of control (at over 7 mil, I believe), I think you're mistaken.

[nicksaviking]

3 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

The Padres should have tough 40 man considerations like we do and they have Abrams still hanging around not on the 40 man. 
They have lots of OF prospects but need a big leaguer OF NOW,

Larnach doesn’t fit that need an OF now plus he would occupy a 40 man spot.
 

Kepler or Kiriloff would be what the Padres want. I assume of course. 

Me too, and Kepler seems to fit the bill for the defensive aspect SD seems to want. 
 

But if it is Kepler and Rogers, there’s a bit of an issue. Those two aren’t exactly low budget; that’s $14 in contracts and SD is already over their preferred budget. If it’s those two, I’d think either Hosmer or Myers has to be coming back or the Twins send cash, which doesn’t sound like a Twins move. If either are the case, a pretty damn good prospect better be part of the package.

[USAFChief]

5 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I haven’t seen anything indicating they’re contending. Looks like they’re letting the kids play this year.

Which honestly is fine, because I’ve seen this club’s idea of “contending” and it usually includes a bunch of vets on the brink of obsolescence,

Then why a nr1 pick for Sonny Gray? Why Correa? Why sign Bundy and Archer? Why Joe Smith? 

I don't think they're contending this year, but they're certainly not punting.

[Devilsadvocate]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

Agreed. Gore hasn't thrown a strike in two years, apparently....

He's actually thrown pretty well this spring. Only 3 walks in 12 IP. ST stats don't mean everything, but his WHIP is also less than 1. 

[ToriiRules!!]

Sounds like the Dozier trade all over again

[nicksaviking]

5 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Then why a nr1 pick for Sonny Gray? Why Correa? Why sign Bundy and Archer? Why Joe Smith? 

I don't think they're contending this year, but they're certainly not punting.

Agree, not punting. They filled their holes with better players than most years. These guys are still short term though. 
 

Still looks like they’re running with the kids and it’s hard not to see that as playing it by ear and hoping for the best. 

[twins_89]

55 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Agree, not punting. They filled their holes with better players than most years. These guys are still short term though. 
 

Still looks like they’re running with the kids and it’s hard not to see that as playing it by ear and hoping for the best. 

My guess is they will see how the team plays the first few months and if the young starters (plus Bundy/Archer) aren't getting the job done the team will make Correa, Rogers, and Gray available (plus any of Sanchez, Duffey, Archer, Bundy, Smith, Urshela, or Sano that have value). I think there's a real possibility that the Twins will have the best position player (Correa), best reliever (Rogers), and one of the top starters (Gray) available at the trade deadline.

[Bradfoot]

54 minutes ago, Devilsadvocate said:

He's actually thrown pretty well this spring. Only 3 walks in 12 IP. ST stats don't mean everything, but his WHIP is also less than 1. 

16 strikeouts too.  4 of his 6 runs allowed came from a grand slam.  He had a nice Spring for whatever that is worth.

 

His ceiling is much higher than Paddock's (and pretty much all of our young pitchers).   You are correct, Rogers would not land him in a one for one.

[PseudoSABR]

If there's not a deal tonight; I doubt it goes through.  The leaks seem designed to move a deal along or test the waters potential names.  I imagine the backlash from Rogers name being floated is outsized, perhaps the Twins could leverage that into more in return...

[Richmond Dude]

19 minutes ago, Bradfoot said:

16 strikeouts too.  4 of his 6 runs allowed came from a grand slam.  He had a nice Spring for whatever that is worth.

 

His ceiling is much higher than Paddock's (and pretty much all of our young pitchers).   You are correct, Rogers would not land him in a one for one.

Unless, possibly, the Padres viewed Rogers as the single missing piece that would get them over the hump that they seem to have been stuck on in a division with two juggernauts.  They underperformed the past two years and the GM was retained while the manager was fired.  Teams in that position overpay.

 

Not disagreeing, btw.  You're right under regular circumstances.  Just giving a different perspective.

[dantal]

We should tell San Diego that Sano can play right field.

[Game7-91]

2 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

I'm on the edge of my seat.

Popcorn time:

[Unwinder]

Is it just me or has this whirlwind compressed fast-forward offseason been unbearably long?

[MTV]

I like the deal but the Twins should bring in a lefty to balance out a rotation of 5 (possibly 6) Righties. Maybe we make a chase after Paddack and Snell, trading Larnach and Rogers seems like a fair tradeoff, maybe the Twins could even get a prospect for it. I think Kirilloff can handle Left for a good amount of the season and Larnach is an ok trade, but trading Rogers is shaky. It really depends on how high the Twins are on Duran, Moran, and Smith to lead the end of the bullpen

[RaoulDuke]

Paddack for Rodgers as the main framework is a good deal in theory but there is certainly some gamble to it.  Paddack for Larnach as the main framework is a good deal, trade corner OFs for SPs.

Rodgers is a great pen arm but he is here for 1 year and likely has priced himself out of the Twins plans going forward.

Larnach is a good hitting prospect with 6 years of control but has a ton of question marks and best case scenario is still just a defensively limited corner outfielder.

Paddack with 3 years of control has mlb success in the rotation but is coming off some down years.  You generally don't get that for a reliever or corner OF prospect.

This deal comes down to the extra stuff involved.

[old nurse]

6 hours ago, ToriiRules!! said:

Sounds like the Dozier trade all over again

It is only like the Dozier trade when somebody claims insider knowledge of the deal that does not happen.  Before that there was the Duensing effect. That is a trade will happen if Duensing was included. Now it is the trade values validation., a third party opinion of what players are worth

[KirbyHawk75]

I don't like this trade unless we get more.  And if we get up our closer I would be really confused.  I am also a big fan of Larnach.  I guess you have to give up talent to get talent, but the numbers don't impress me.  If the FO would have just signed a FA starter or two we would not have to give up prospects.  

[Riverbrian]

No new updates.

Falvey Lavine and Preller must have went to bed.

I probably should to.

No sense waiting up any longer. ?

[Doctor Gast]

I am hoping that this is a ploy to shake loose Montas. IMO the Twins may have the best offer for Montas and if OAK thinks we are looking somewhere else they could finally wake up. Could this really be? I hope so.

[miracleb]

Larnach will end up being a stud for many years.  We can "fill" Taylor Roger spot right now (even if only 85% of it.)  I would much rather give up Rogers for Paddock...... than Larnach!

 

[Ryan_K]

10 hours ago, Devilsadvocate said:

I'm thinking you're crazy... Gore straight up for Rogers may not even meet the Padres asking price. He was and still is a heck of a prospect.

Based on feedback, it seems both sides like it more than I thought they would.

[Whitey333]

Twins definitely need starting pitching and this would be a good addition depending of course what you have to give up.  I've always liked Larnach and think he is going to be a very good major league player.  I surely hope Rogers is not part of any trade.  He's much to valuable in the pen.

[Steve71]

Soooo, the entire source for the rumor that Larnach may be dealt is that he sat out last night's AAA game.  But according to the game report, Larnach was pulled due to "muscle tightness" and concerns over playing on a wet field with that condition.  Unless the Manager outright lied to the reporter, it had nothing to do with a potential trade.

So now we are circling back to what has actually been reported:  The Twins like Paddack, and the Padres like Rogers. Whether a deal can be consummated based upon those general parameters is not clear, and it is reported that the "situation is fluid".

Stay tuned.

[DJL44]

6 hours ago, MTV said:

I like the deal but the Twins should bring in a lefty to balance out a rotation

Lefties tend to do poorly in Target Field, especially flyball pitchers. Having a lefthanded starter is okay but it can't just be any lefthanded starter.

[tony&rodney]

Much ado concerning San Diego's Chris Paddock, a pitcher who sits between #6-8 within the starting rotation of his current team. A former prospect with some potential and a guy who has struggled to get it all together in the last few years. He earns about $2.5 million this year, whether he sits the pine, hones his craft in AAA, or flourishes and the Padres don't have a spot for him right now. This is not too far from Randy Dobnak or Drew Smeltzer, pitchers that might actually have some success when healthy.

Why the interest? Well, as a flier for a player who would face the same fate with the another team - why not. What is insane, keeping in mind the inane trades that do happen, is the idea that the Mets would take on Hosmer's contract to add Paddock or that the Twins would exchange Rogers for a #6 pitcher. The argument that Rogers has only a year before free agency makes me crazy. The addition of players like Bundy, Gray, Urshela, Sanchez, Correa, Smith, Archer, and any fliers on minor league free agents were ostensible added to improve the team for 2022. A trade with San Diego may happen, but it never seemed like a reasonable approach given the Twins adherence to a budget or the combination of players. Now if the Twins wanted to take Hosmer's entire contract, Paddock, Gore, Campusano, and Hassel for Rogers, Larnach, Sanchez, Smeltzer, and Rooker ..... that is ridiculous. I would much prefer the Twins call the Pittsburgh GM and have some real conversations. 

[goulik]

13 minutes ago, Steve71 said:

Soooo, the entire source for the rumor that Larnach may be dealt is that he sat out last night's AAA game.  But according to the game report, Larnach was pulled due to "muscle tightness" and concerns over playing on a wet field with that condition.  Unless the Manager outright lied to the reporter, it had nothing to do with a potential trade.

So now we are circling back to what has actually been reported:  The Twins like Paddack, and the Padres like Rogers. Whether a deal can be consummated based upon those general parameters is not clear, and it is reported that the "situation is fluid".

Stay tuned.

I think the other part of this was that the Padres have been rumored to be looking for a Major League ready corner outfielder and don't want to increase payroll which fits Larnach's profile fairly well.

[baul0010]

Why has this not happened yet.   Now I have another day of checking in every five minutes.

[beckmt]

Couple of thoughts.  Twins could take the Myers contract, which is only for this year.  Would hate to give up a left handed hitting outfielder, as the Twins are right handed heavy.   

Back side is you can never have too much pitching, if Archer or Bundy implode or both and one of Ober and Ryan do not have a good year, you are going to need a lot more depth.  You are asking  3  pitchers in ST. Paul or Wichita to step up, that is a big ask.

Both Paddock and Gore where much more highly rated prospects than any of the Twins current minor league starters.  If Duran and Alacla step up, Rogers will not be here next year.  So if the deal is right, cash the chips.  Would have to see the total deal before making an opinion on it.  Like the framework however.