Four Minnesota Twins Players Most Likely to Regress in 2026

[Cody Christie]

Image courtesy of © Brad Rempel-Imagn Images

After a disappointing finish to the 2025 campaign, the Minnesota Twins enter 2026 hoping to get back into the playoff mix. Several players took significant steps forward last season, which helped keep the club semi-competitive despite a transition-heavy year. However, not everyone who excelled in 2025 is a sure bet to maintain that level of production. Regression is a natural part of baseball, and the following four players could see their numbers dip as the Twins try to reestablish themselves as contenders.

OF Byron Buxton
Buxton is coming off arguably the best season of his career, one in which he rediscovered his elite form and reminded everyone how dynamic he can be when healthy. Yet as he enters his age-32 season, it is fair to question how much longer he can maintain that level of explosiveness. Father Time remains undefeated, and Buxton’s speed and defensive range may begin to wane. The Twins could soon face a difficult conversation about whether to keep him in center field or shift him to a corner spot to preserve his health and extend his production window.

2026 Outlook: The Twins will continue to rely on Buxton as a key lineup piece and clubhouse leader, but his role could evolve. If he can stay on the field for 120-plus games and maintain league-average defense, he remains a valuable everyday player. A transition to left or right field could allow his bat to stay in the lineup more often while easing the physical demands that have limited his availability in past seasons.

RHP Joe Ryan
Ryan has been a dependable presence in Minnesota’s rotation, but his second-half numbers from last year provide some warning signs. He allowed a .790 OPS in the second half compared to a .591 mark in the first half, a pattern that has appeared in previous seasons. Injuries and inconsistency tend to creep in as workloads build, and that could again impact his overall performance. Ryan should remain a valuable playoff-caliber starter, but his final 2026 line may not match the highs he posted early last year.

2026 Outlook: Ryan enters 2026 as one of the most important arms in the rotation, particularly with several younger pitchers still developing. His ability to adjust midseason and maintain his fastball effectiveness will determine whether he can stabilize his year-to-year numbers. Even with some regression, a durable 180-inning season with solid strikeout totals would provide the consistency the Twins need.

INF Kody Clemens
Clemens became one of the more pleasant surprises of 2025 after the Twins gave him his first extended big-league opportunity. He responded with 19 home runs and a 96 OPS+, helping stabilize first base in a season of transition. However, those numbers might represent his ceiling rather than his new baseline. First base is traditionally a power-driven position, and Clemens’s overall offensive profile may not hold up if his power production dips even slightly. The Twins are betting on him to replicate his success, but that could prove difficult over a full season.

2026 Outlook: Clemens enters spring training with an opportunity to earn regular at-bats, but the team may also look to add competition at first base or designated hitter. If he can sustain his contact quality and improve his on-base skills, he could carve out a role as a versatile left-handed bat. However, if his slugging numbers regress, he might find himself in a platoon or bench role by midseason.

 RHP Simeon Woods Richardson
Woods Richardson gets lost in the shuffle of the Twins’ young starting pitchers, but he has proven his worth over the last two seasons. He posted a 4.04 ERA and a 106 ERA+, becoming a steady presence behind the team’s top starters. Yet his underlying metrics raise some concerns about potential regression. His walk rate increased from 8.4% to 9.8%, and his hard-hit rate jumped by more than five percentage points. While his strikeout rate improved, his .265 BABIP suggests he benefited from some batted-ball luck that may not hold. The Twins still view him as part of their long-term rotation, but fans should temper expectations heading into 2026.

2026 Outlook: Woods Richardson will likely open the season as the team’s fourth or fifth starter, and his continued development will be key for the rotation’s depth. If he can keep his walk rate in check and induce more weak contact, he could solidify himself as a reliable mid-rotation arm. However, if his command wavers and hard contact remains an issue, regression could lead to a move to long relief or Triple-A for a reset.

Minnesota’s path back to contention depends on balancing breakout performances with stability from its veterans. If these players can stave off regression, the Twins could make a serious push in 2026. But if their numbers slide, the front office may be forced to look elsewhere for answers.

Do you agree that these players are headed for regression? Leave a comment and start the discussion. 

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[Whitey333]

Good article.  I think you nailed it on these four players.

[Coach Wheels]

I'd like to believe that Ryan and Buxton will continue to get better. For Buxton, I define "better" by continuing to be healthy and play 150 games.

I see no reason for Ryan to regress. Young player with an above average fastball who can continue to learn how to pitch and hopefully keep his pitch count down to 18-21 outs more consistently.

SWR and Clemens are who they are. Im not counting on either to win big games next summer.

[rdehring]

Do I agree that this quartet is headed for regression?  Buxton?  Maybe a few years from now but not 2026, assuming he stays relatively healthy.  Ryan?  May not matter if he is pitching for Boston or someone else who overpaid for his services.  Clemons?  Who cares?  His role with the Twins should be as a backup first baseman or DH, getting a max of 200+/- at bats.  Woods Richardson?  No.  It seems this kid doesn't have what it takes to be a solid member of any team's starting rotation.  Yet, he continues to get solid results for the past two years.  He is who he is, which ain't all that bad.  Expect him to be their #4 or #5 starter until replaced by one of the young guns on the verge of making it.  He should then be a valuable trade piece to return another very good prospect, perhaps as early as July, 2026.

What is more important is how much others improve from their disappointing 2025.  Young guys like Lewis, Lee, Sands, Bradley, Matthews, Festa, and Able.  Add Martin and Keaschall who were very good in 2025 but can get better and 2026 just might surprise us.  Or not!

[saviking]

I'm hoping Clemens is not on the team next year .. would rather develop a young guy.

[mikelink45]

How depressing - we are already suffering as fans - why speculate on what could be worse?

[mluebker]

The beauty of a list like this is maybe they will and maybe they won’t. They’re all guys who worked their butts off last summer, so I’m hoping they do the same or better next summer.

[USAFChief]

36 minutes ago, Coach Wheels said:

I'd like to believe that Ryan and Buxton will continue to get better. For Buxton, I define "better" by continuing to be healthy and play 150 games.

I see no reason for Ryan to regress. Young player with an above average fastball who can continue to learn how to pitch and hopefully keep his pitch count down to 18-21 outs more consistently.

SWR and Clemens are who they are. Im not counting on either to win big games next summer.

Ryan is "young"?

He certainly might not regress,  but He turns 30 next June and this will be his 6th MLB season, 5th as a full time starter. 

[jmlease1]

It's certainly possible for all of these guys to regress, I guess? But Jeffers is more likely than any of them, just because playing catcher is awfully hard on players and he's been on a multi-year slide from his peak in 2023. And I think people think of regression of a big dip in production, which might not happen for any of these guys.

Ryan is a candidate because 2025 was his best season as a pro, but it doesn't mean he actually will regress. He's in his prime, he keeps working on things, so while he might slip back a little, there's little reason to think he won't be very very good. Maybe next season he puts up a 120 ERA+. Technically that's "regression" but, there's little evidence to suggest that he's going to slide back to being more of a league average pitcher or something.

Buxton is a candidate only in that he had such an excellent season. But Buck has had season like this before, in fact has been on track for even higher peaks than this excepting that injury screwed him, so outside of him being in his 30's now there's no reason to predict he's going to drop off; it's not like 2025 was a fluke.

Clemens is a weird case: 2025 was a career best season for him, but some of that was also related to him getting opportunity. His 2024 doesn't look that much different when you pro-rate it out for a full season. Frankly, we saw the regression from Clemens during the year in 2025 after his hot streak came to a close. It's why so many of us are talking about him as if he should be a borderline case to make the roster and how we really don't want him being handed a starting role in the lineup.

SWR is not a case for regression, IMHO. He's only 25 and still figuring things out, but he also keeps getting written off while every time he gets asked to step in he gets the job done. There might be some fluctuation in his stats based on some of the underlying numbers...but there also might be improvement as he continues to refine his pitches and hopefully doesn't lose time & weight to a parasite next season. Give up on SWR at your own risk.

Frankly, Keaschall is a bigger risk to regress in 2026; if you're using BABIP against SWR, you'd better use it against Keaschall; dude finished the season with a BABIP of .340, which is at least as unsustainable as SWR's. Keaschall also very much struggled to close the season: .685 OPS the last month or so to end the year was not good and could indicate that opposing pitchers had figured out a way to attack him. Do I think he's going to have a significant regression in 2026? No, because I am very high on him as a player. But he's absolutely a candidate for "most likely to" if that's who we're trying to ID here.

[MGX]

Every player on the roster could regress/improve.

Of the four mentioned Buxton is the most likely to regress simply because last year was one of, if not his best season & 2026 will be his 12th season. If he does "regress" he'll still be one of the most valuable players on the team. 

Kody Clemens has improved his offensive production every season since he's been in the league & last year was his first with with over 150 PA's. He could regress just because it's hard to continue improving your production every season, but it doesn't make him a candidate any more than another player.

SWR - Is 24 & has shown signs of being a solid starting pitcher at the MLB level. In September he was the best pitcher on the staff. That doesn't point to regression to me.

Joe Ryan did fall off in the 2nd half so I guess you could say that points to a regression, but his stats fell off a bit in the 2nd half of 2024 & a lot in 2023. In 2025 he had a career high in IP & had one his best seasons. The real question for him is can he stay strong for an entire season.

 

[Captain18s]

Many of them will be gone at the trade deadline

[DJL44]

I don’t think SWR has options so a reset in AAA is not possible.

[karcherd]

Clemens had one good month, and was average to below average every other month.  If he is on the roster it should be for 200 AB's at the most as a role player off the bench.  Either a winning team or rebuilding team should not be giving him regular at bats.  Either get a quality first baseman or let one of the kids play there and learn.

[MGX]

9 minutes ago, karcherd said:

Clemens had one good month, and was average to below average every other month.  If he is on the roster it should be for 200 AB's at the most as a role player off the bench.  Either a winning team or rebuilding team should not be giving him regular at bats.  Either get a quality first baseman or let one of the kids play there and learn.

This is inaccurate - OPS by month March/April - .348, May - .985, June - .625, July - .805, August - .536 & Sept./Oct - .770.

With that said I'm hoping we sign an FA to play 1B (Ryan O'Hearn) as I think Clemens should be a utility player on this roster.

Who are the kids that are going to play & learn? If they deserve a spot on the ML roster then they should be there if not they can continue developing in the minors until they have earned it.

[Nashvilletwin]

Well, if this turns out to be an accurate prediction, we won’t care about the first three players - they all will be on new teams next season.

[Fatbat]

This is a great exercise in playing a guessing game. I doubt Ryan has hit his ceiling yet and Buck is solid. He may be in the MVP talk all season long! SWR is a warrior and 💯 dedicated to improve his craft. He wont regress. Clemons is a wild card. He has his dads pitbull heart. He may just take another step and become better than average. Not sure how I would place a bet on his ‘26 success/failure rate.  
I believe there are a few others that may regress out of MLB in ‘26. Kiersey, Outman, Fitzgerald and a few other borderline guys may not be around long.

[Doctor Gast]

,Buxton's offensive numbers have always been very good when healthy. The longer he's healthy the better he gets. He's been cautious in CF which affects his platinum glove eliteness. I'll take very good any day. He'll never be just average in CF as long as his contract runs.

Ryan always tires in the 2nd half, if he doesn't get injured. He had a career high innings pitched, so, yeah, he tired. Nothing to get concerned about. Same with Jeffers, Twins will depend more on him with a big increase in innings. So, look for a big dip in the 2nd half, if he doesn't get hurt.

The last 2 years, people have predicted that SWR will have a bad year, but he always adjusts & comes out on top. I predict he'll do the same this year. Clemens was bad when Twins picked him up. Unlike many in-house players, they gave him a chance & he took off with it. I like Clemens & wish him well, but I don't know him well enough to say either way.

[jjswol]

3 hours ago, Coach Wheels said:

I'd like to believe that Ryan and Buxton will continue to get better. For Buxton, I define "better" by continuing to be healthy and play 150 games.

I see no reason for Ryan to regress. Young player with an above average fastball who can continue to learn how to pitch and hopefully keep his pitch count down to 18-21 outs more consistently.

SWR and Clemens are who they are. Im not counting on either to win big games next summer.

You said Buxton will play 150 games but you forgot how many years it will take hime to do that. Are you taking the over or under of "3"?

[soyouresayingtheresachance]

I would add Keachall and Martin to the list. Luke had a great debut and it seems to be a trend now for young players in a Twins uniform to do well and then completely disappear. As for Martin, his production seems completely sustainable to me, but he hadn't shown the ability to play like that in the majors until this year when the results of the game no longer mattered. Im hoping both of these players can continue on recent success. I would love to see Martin continue with the high OBP, even if he doesn't develop the power, he'll still be a valuable player. 

For the 4 players mentioned, if Buxton stays healthy, he should continue to produce. Ryan is still young and I think he gets tired toward the end of the season. Hopefully pitching a full work load for a couple seasons will give him more stamina to finish out the season strong. If Clemens can continue to play at a roughly league average level, he'll probably stick around. If his production drops, I'd imagine he'll have a short leash. Woods Richardson seems to be the same every year. Hoping he can continue to pitch like around that 4 era or better. 

[IndianaTwin]

I think that...

• Wallner (2025 OPS was .090 under his career average heading into the year),
• Lewis (2025 OPS was .124 under his career average heading the year) and
• Lopez (pitched about 85 innings fewer in 2025 than in his prior average season)

...will all regress toward their mean as well.

 

Further, I think their improvement will more than outweigh the decline of:

• Buxton, whose OPS last year was virtually the same as for the prior four years -- he just played more games.
• Ryan, whose strong year generally followed the typical career progression (and perhaps a bit more) for a 29 YO and is now turning only 30.
• SWR, an average pitcher (as defined by OPS+) who will be replaced if he declines significantly.
• Clemens, a below-average hitter (again, measured by OPS+) who is perhaps (hopefully) the prime position player to be replaced this winter.

[HerbieFan]

I'd rather read an article on four players that are most likely to PROgress in 2026 :)

[ashbury]

4 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

Frankly, Keaschall is a bigger risk to regress in 2026; if you're using BABIP against SWR, you'd better use it against Keaschall; dude finished the season with a BABIP of .340, which is at least as unsustainable as SWR's. 

I use BABIP as a benchmark too.  Across the majors this year, BABIP was .291.  .340 stands out as high and possibly unsustainable.

However, I always like to point out that a very few batters manage to maintain high BABIPs throughout a long career.  HOFer Joe Mauer's lifetime BABIP was .341.  Same-in-reverse goes for pitchers; HOFer-in-waiting Clayton Kershaw kept a .275 through a career that included seasons when BABIP league-wide was close to .010 higher than 2025. *

If Keaschall's is high, it could be a fluke.  Same for SWR's career .276 BABIP.  Or it could be that both are on Hall of Fame arcs too. ** 😄  BABIP is useful when a player has a track record and has a period of time that seems out of keeping.  Luke hasn't yet established a track record in the majors.  His BABIP in his short minor league career was usually high too.  But I have a sense that this might be true in general for the minors - I don't know where to find tables of minor league BABIP as easily as I can find it for the majors, but if I did some hand-calculation correctly, the number for the International League as a whole this season was .308, significantly higher than for the majors.  (I'll chalk it up to a different level of competition and talent between the two levels.)  

Basically, my point is that people use BABIP as shorthand for "luck," and I don't believe in luck very much for ballplayers.  They're grown men trying their best against other grown men also trying their best, and what happens on the field happens, and we keep records of it.  Some short term results are unsustainable, some numbers reflect actual talent, and the challenge for statistically-minded folks like us is to sift out one from the other.  BABIP was developed in terms of filtering out defense from the usual statistics, and I'm not sure it does a very good job of that, and I also don't believe it inherently does a good job of separating so-called "luck" from a measurable skill, such as hitting the crap out of the ball in a way that fielders have difficulty with.

Was 2025 a unicorn season for Keaschall, or is Keaschall himself a unicorn player?  Yes, keep an eye on him in this regard.  Either way it goes, there will be new insight.  That's really all I'm willing to predict at this point: "watch what happens next."  😁

* On the other side of the coin, we kept waiting for monster seasons from Max Kepler and Ricky Nolasco, "once their BABIPs normalize," and they never did.

** BABIP, IMO, is only a small component of what makes a Hall of Famer.

[bean5302]

40 minutes ago, ashbury said:

I use BABIP as a benchmark too.  Across the majors this year, BABIP was .291.  .340 stands out as high and possibly unsustainable.

For me, BABIP is an awful lot like HR:FB rates. Very few pitchers can sustain HR:FB rates which are substantially better than league average, but there are some complexities like high pop-up rates. The vast majority of MLB hitters are following the hard contact, pull-hitter fly ball model. Very few Luis Arraez's or Austin Martin's looping soft liners into the middle of the outfield out there. More sprint speed (IFH), lower pop-ups, more line drives, harder hitting gets anomalys. 

[Pat]

The other side of this argument is that once a guy figures it out,  it leads to sustained success for a number of years.  2025 is not an end it is a beginning.

[RpR]

What will be, will be.  Paranoid pessimism is a fools folly.

[Parfigliano]

8 hours ago, saviking said:

I'm hoping Clemens is not on the team next year .. would rather develop a young guy.

Me too.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

4 hours ago, jjswol said:

You said Buxton will play 150 games but you forgot how many years it will take hime to do that. Are you taking the over or under of "3"?

Most seasons he plays 80-90 games, so I’m taking the under at 3. Sports books wouldn’t see the line at 3, they’d set it at 1.9 or 2.2, something like that. No ties…

[dxpavelka]

Aren't you concerned about these folks laughing you off the internet with for typing the words "Minnesota's path to contention"?

 

[old nurse]

17 hours ago, ashbury said:

I use BABIP as a benchmark too.  Across the majors this year, BABIP was .291.  .340 stands out as high and possibly unsustainable.

However, I always like to point out that a very few batters manage to maintain high BABIPs throughout a long career.  HOFer Joe Mauer's lifetime BABIP was .341.  Same-in-reverse goes for pitchers; HOFer-in-waiting Clayton Kershaw kept a .275 through a career that included seasons when BABIP league-wide was close to .010 higher than 2025. *

If Keaschall's is high, it could be a fluke.  Same for SWR's career .276 BABIP.  Or it could be that both are on Hall of Fame arcs too. ** 😄  BABIP is useful when a player has a track record and has a period of time that seems out of keeping.  Luke hasn't yet established a track record in the majors.  His BABIP in his short minor league career was usually high too.  But I have a sense that this might be true in general for the minors - I don't know where to find tables of minor league BABIP as easily as I can find it for the majors, but if I did some hand-calculation correctly, the number for the International League as a whole this season was .308, significantly higher than for the majors.  (I'll chalk it up to a different level of competition and talent between the two levels.)  

Basically, my point is that people use BABIP as shorthand for "luck," and I don't believe in luck very much for ballplayers.  They're grown men trying their best against other grown men also trying their best, and what happens on the field happens, and we keep records of it.  Some short term results are unsustainable, some numbers reflect actual talent, and the challenge for statistically-minded folks like us is to sift out one from the other.  BABIP was developed in terms of filtering out defense from the usual statistics, and I'm not sure it does a very good job of that, and I also don't believe it inherently does a good job of separating so-called "luck" from a measurable skill, such as hitting the crap out of the ball in a way that fielders have difficulty with.

Was 2025 a unicorn season for Keaschall, or is Keaschall himself a unicorn player?  Yes, keep an eye on him in this regard.  Either way it goes, there will be new insight.  That's really all I'm willing to predict at this point: "watch what happens next."  😁

* On the other side of the coin, we kept waiting for monster seasons from Max Kepler and Ricky Nolasco, "once their BABIPs normalize," and they never did.

** BABIP, IMO, is only a small component of what makes a Hall of Famer.

If BABIP at .340 is abnormally high then baseball isn’t supposed to have .300 hitters.  Any good hitter then does not strike out   .040 point difference between BA and BABIP I think was about where sustainability is achieved. Can’t remember the exact why of how that worked. It was Danny Santana’s miracle year. 

Keaschall does have a lot of infield hits as speed helps. He also had a lot of short outfield hits. The defense can’t play up, they can’t play deep

[stringer bell]

BABIP in conjunction with hard-hit rate might explain and predict success for players. Hard hit balls in play should work for a higher batting average. Keaschall's .340 BABIP coupled with only a 31% hard-hit rate should predict regression to the mean. 

Woods Richardson coupled a below average BABIP with an above average hard-hit rate, so he too would look like his runs allowed numbers would get worse in 2026.