The Twins Should Trade Both Pablo Lopez and Joe Ryan This Offseason

[Eric Blonigen]

Image courtesy of Brad Rempel - Imagn Images

Before I even get started, I want to tell you that I don’t want this to happen, but it’s what I think should happen for the medium-term health of the Twins as long as the Pohlads don’t spend. That said. It’s beginning to look increasingly clear: the Twins should trade both Pablo Lopez and Joe Ryan this offseason. While this move won’t be popular, it will make the team better when the next contention window opens.

Let’s begin by talking dollars and cents. The Athletic’s Dan Hayes has said he won’t be surprised if the Twins set their 2026 payroll around the $100 million mark.

If the front office tenders a contract to all arbitration-eligible players and retains everyone under team control for next season, the projected salaries work out to around $95 million. That sure doesn’t give Derek Falvey and Jeremy Zoll much to work with, despite some obvious needs. Lopez and Ryan, between them, figure to eat up about 30% of that theoretical, self-imposed payroll limit. Eliminating $30 million from the books will allow for some interesting pickups to at least be possible.

This is important, because 2026 will be a year of transition for the Twins. As it stands, they have virtually nobody they can pencil in at the back end of the bullpen. The hitters, aside from Byron Buxton, Matt Wallner, and Ryan Jeffers, haven’t consistently hit. The hitting corps figures to be bolstered by Walker Jenkins, Emmanuel Rodriguez, and Kaelen Culpepper and Gabriel Gonzalez at some point in 2026, but as Twins fans are well aware, even top prospects sometimes take a while to figure it out at the big league level, and some never do. Because of this, there’s a wide range of outcomes around the offense, and that makes it challenging to even pretend to be all-in next season. 

 

Assuming the Twins aren’t planning on competing, it makes almost too much sense to trade both Pablo Lopez and Joe Ryan. With two seasons of team control remaining, and the next window of contention likely beginning in 2027 or maybe even 2028, the Twins should be able to get a haul for the two star pitchers. Ryan, in particular, could fetch a similarly-talented pre-arbitration hitter in a challenge trade, or would net multiple top-100 prospects, and probably a couple of lottery tickets as well should the Twins front office prefer to deepen an already impressive farm system further.

Lopez is more expensive, making $21 million next season, so the return there would be a bit less, but still noteworthy.

Aside from maximizing the return the Twins would receive in trade, it’s important to acknowledge that the Twins will also have a bit of a starting pitching logjam. With Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, and Bailey Ober at the front of the rotation, there’s not a ton of room for the sort of established starters to get consistent run, and there’s no room for the top prospects. Aside from those three, there are fully nine guys that the Twins likely want to give significant innings to, in the short term, five of whom have very little to prove at Triple-A.

First, you have the five pitchers with projectability and varying levels of service time. Taj Bradley, Mick Abel, Zebby Matthews, David Festa, and Simeon Woods Richardson could fill a full rotation on their own. Each of those guys, in any given start, could look like an ace, or someone who has no business on a major league roster. To maximize their potential, they need to start, consistently, and with the Twins, until they show they can’t cut it.

 

 

On the farm, the Twins have four other intriguing hurlers in Connor Prielipp, Andrew Morris, CJ Culpepper, and Marco Raya. Each of these four may be destined for relief, but all still have a puncher’s chance to continue starting games, and all should see action with the Twins in 2026 and beyond.

Further away in the pitching pipeline, there are a few guys that currently look to have the potential to be above-average starters. Charlee Soto, Dasan Hill, and Ryan Gallagher (the return for Willi Castro) probably won’t be up before 2027 at the earliest.

That’s 12 guys behind Bailey Ober. Now, almost certainly the Twins will convert some — maybe even several — of them into relievers. After all, that’s how the Twins got Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax, Brock Stewart, Louis Varland, not to mention guys like Glen Perkins, Taylor Rogers, and most other elite relievers in Twins history. However, there’s no reason to feel forced to convert guys just so there’s space for them on the roster.

 

The last thing I want to say is that as a baseball fan, it’ll hurt to see Ryan and Lopez go. Both are excellent pitchers and are fun to watch.

Losing them will inarguably make the 2026 Twins team worse. However, with the Pohlads as owners, it’s clear that it’s business as usual, and the only way to field a competitive team on the regular is to also do so on the cheap. When you have two pitchers that are even a little bit replaceable, don’t factor into the long-term plans, and can net you a wealth of talent that can help form the next and hopefully actually successful core, you almost have to make the tough decisions that can help you win long-term.

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[Cory Engelhardt]

What would the return be specifically? They have to get players back that would be on the 2026 team if they trade either of them. Who are those players and where would they play in 2026?

I can’t see trading either for prospects alone. They have prospects 

[twinfan]

Yes. Let's make the Twins the next laughing stock of the league. Some of these stories are absolutely crazy. There is NO REASON why the Twins cannot compete next year. They have, with both Ryan and Pablo, the makings of a top rotation which you must have in order to compete. They do need a closer and there could be some available in the off season for a reasonable price. Lewis is doing better, Wallner will be better. And hopefully Buxton will remain healthy as he is one of the best all-around players. Keashall looks real and hopefully a few others like Lee will either improve or we can get some decent replacements. We are giving some of the kids exposure and we'll see who can really help. Will we win 100 games? No. 90 games? No. But it's not inconceivable that we could get to 85 games with good health. Teams always come out of nowhere and I am not convinced that we would get enough to compete in 2-3 years if we trade them. I say do not trade either of them.

[Whitey333]

Nice article Eric.  Well thought out.  I think they will trade both too.  But mainly to save money and if it works out that's fine.  All the prospects you mention are just suspects until and IF they prove themselves.  Every year it's the same:  Way too much hype on totally unproven major league wannabes.  This is what it comes down to.  Hype and hope.  Over hype the value and potential prospe ts and hope the fan base buys into it.  

[Paul Walerius]

If they want to lose ALL the fans then by all means trade them both.  Could I see one of them yes, but I hope not.  I do believe they can compete next year if they keep the rotation intact.  If they trade one of them it would be tough, both, there is 0 chance.   They honestly just need to figure out the bullpen and I think Prielipp and Raya could factor in.   

Starters 

Ryan, Lopez, Ober, Matthews, and (one of SWR, Festa, Bradley, Abel)

Pen

Sands, Funderburk (maybe), Prielipp, Raya, Adams, Ohl, 

[Jeff K]

I wonder if attendance at games is meaningful. 

[hitterscount]

I guess in the Twins organization a .213 BA qualifies as hitting consistency and a logjam of starting pitchers begins with an ERA approaching 5.00 or better. 

Unfortunately you are probably correct, I would not be surprised if the two proven starters are moved.... I do believe Matthews is ready to take a step forward, which offsets Ober's decline past mediocrity into the abyss of multi homer games. 

[Doug Y]

It is too hard to draft, develop, trade for, and certainly acquire top end pitching talent by free agency. I would certainly not trade it away and hope the return players develop. You can’t compete without high end starters. 

[Jack207]

They should also trade Buxton, Lewis, Lee and Keuchel and become a true Minor League team. They probably then can play St. Paul in crossover games.

[Brett]

OK, I’ll play.

How about Pablo Lopez and Derek Falvey to the Dodgers for Andrew Friedman?

[ChermesZ]

A perfect example of what is wrong with baseball if you ‘have to’ trade 2 really good pitchers to be in contention.

 

reason #276 why baseball is swirling the drain.

 

do you know how many games I could see on tv this weekend? 1.

do you know how many college football games I could see? 10+.

 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

10 minutes ago, Jeff K said:

I wonder if attendance at games is meaningful. 

To fans? Players? The Pohlads?

to fans and players? I imagine so

to the Pohlads? Probably not, unless it’s an indication of next year’s season ticket sales.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

9 minutes ago, Jack207 said:

They should also trade Buxton, Lewis, Lee and Keuchel and become a true Minor League team. They probably then can play St. Paul in crossover games.

The Green Line Series

[Cory Engelhardt]

17 minutes ago, Paul Walerius said:

If they want to lose ALL the fans then by all means trade them both.  Could I see one of them yes, but I hope not.  I do believe they can compete next year if they keep the rotation intact.  If they trade one of them it would be tough, both, there is 0 chance.   They honestly just need to figure out the bullpen and I think Prielipp and Raya could factor in.   

Starters 

Ryan, Lopez, Ober, Matthews, and (one of SWR, Festa, Bradley, Abel)

Pen

Sands, Funderburk (maybe), Prielipp, Raya, Adams, Ohl, 

The way Ober has looked lately I worry he has an injury we will find out about soon enough. 
 

I also kind of expect Festa to move to the pen.

And yeah, with a payroll already under 100 million, I can’t imagine the need to trade either Ryan or Lopez just to salary dump. That doesn’t add up for me. If they are trading either it’s because they are overwhelmed 

[Paul Walerius]

Just now, Cory Engelhardt said:

The way Ober has looked lately I worry he has an injury we will find out about soon enough. 
 

I also kind of expect Festa to move to the pen.

And yeah, with a payroll already under 100 million, I can’t imagine the need to trade either Ryan or Lopez just to salary dump. That doesn’t add up for me. If they are trading either it’s because they are overwhelmed 

This maybe off the wall, I like him as a starter but I do think Matthews has the stuff and mentality to be the closer.  SWR is a soft thrower so he could be pen.   There are so many pieces the problem is Rocco has not shown that he can put them in the right position yet.  

[Cory Engelhardt]

1 minute ago, Paul Walerius said:

This maybe off the wall, I like him as a starter but I do think Matthews has the stuff and mentality to be the closer.  SWR is a soft thrower so he could be pen.   There are so many pieces the problem is Rocco has not shown that he can put them in the right position yet.  

I’d keep Matthews in the rotation. 

[Peter]

Neither are going anywhere!!! Had Pablo been healthy we be in wild card. His injury was huge blow. If anything dump Ober!!! We got team that will be much better next year and beyond!!! Just need to stay healthy! 

[lake_guy]

Where the Pohlads need to like 10x their spending is on the scouts and development team.  Supposedly they beefed up the analytics capability which is good but I'm talking about the people that are really great at evaluating talent.  Then find those people who are great at development.  Build those capabilities up and it's a fly wheel that will keep spinning out successful players.  This approach is the leverage point to spend what will be a small % compared to MLB salaries to get outsized gains.

[DJL44]

I think they are sure to trade one of Ryan, Ober and Lopez this winter. I don't think they need to trade more than one of them.

56 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I can’t see trading either for prospects alone. They have prospects 

I agree with this. They have plenty of prospects, especially for the outfield. They need a 2nd catcher, a first baseman and some relief pitching. I'm not trading Joe Ryan or Pablo Lopez for that.

Ideally they can trade Ober to a team that wants to overlook 2025. He's probably not in the top 5 on the depth chart anymore. Pablo / Ryan / Bradley / Matthews / SWR looks like a competitive rotation with plenty of depth in AAA. Festa might be the pitcher who moves to the bullpen and dominates.

I proposed Ober and Larnach to the Orioles for Rutschman and Mountcastle. That trade could help both teams.

[bunsen82]

It’s tough being a fan. Yes Ryan and Lopez are top end pitchers and they are the toughest thing to find or acquire in baseball. The downside is unless we truly plan to spend in the offseason the bullpen and position players won’t be ready to compete til 2027 at the earliest.  
 

I have struggled with how a trade would look and how you could handle all the movie parts. I don’t see the vision currently. The value of Ryan would be massive. His next 2 years will most likely be meaningless with the Twins except for a 1st round pick if he signs elsewhere. Logically trading him makes a ton of sense.  

[Otaknam]

I am not a fan of trading Ryan and Lopez, which would destroy any fan optimism. But if the Pohlads want to cut salaries another $30 million, that will make it difficult to compete. If that happens the lineup will feature struggling young veterans like Lewis, Larnach, and Wallner, and lots of rookies trying to find their way, not a prescription for success. In that scenario it may be time to just blow it up and reset with young guys, especially with a possible lockout in 2027. I wonder how long Buxton would want to stay in a total rebuild. 

[tony&rodney]

The problem for the Twins is in identifying which players have reached a peak and should be traded and perhaps even more importantly singling out players in deals that will be key to turning the Twins into a strong team. Along with the above long sentence issues there is the factors of whether any team sees value in a Twins player and whether any deal can shake loose a player from another team.

Will any team offer a serious top talent individual or package for Joe Ryan? There must be teams that could really use a starting pitcher such as Ryan. No team is going to trade an established star bat for Ryan. BTV would suggest Ryan is worth more than Nick Kurtz but that trade would never happen, even if the Twins added Ober. Would Detroit risk trading Max Clark for Ryan plus a minor league A ball pitcher? The trick is in finding the team willing to trade players who can make a difference at the plate, on the bases, and in the field. Readers can concoct their own ideas.

The Twins are a very poor fielding team. We saw the limited range of their infielders on display last night in a blowout to San Diego. Teams can live with one or two below average fielders but it is a nightmare for pitchers when most of the gloves are deficient. Improvements are needed.

Perhaps trading Ryan and Lopez is the path forward for the Twins but it won't make any difference if the front office cannot identify talent and convince another team to return talent in any deals.

 

[Major League Ready]

It comes down to if you think this team can truly contend in 2026.  They were nowhere near contenders this year before they traded away their highest paid player and 4 very good BP arms.  I just can't look at the current situation given how poorly they played and the deadline trades and come to the conclusion that prioritizing the near term is the best course of action.   

Their best shot at success is transitioning Keashall / Jenkins / Culpepper and some combination of Rodriguez / GG / Rosario / Fedko, Tait, and a couple others that have a shot at being very good MLB players.  This will take a year and a half.  They can keep Ryan and Pablo during that period and possibly be fringe playoff contenders or they can add the haul they would get for Pablo and Ryan to the previously mentioned list.  That strategy has very good potential to be far better team in terms of position players for a 6-8 year period. 

They will need to replace Pablo and Ryan from the dozen SPs Eric listed.  I like the odds of that happening and they are likely to get another top pitching prospect back in trade that should be among the very best of that existing list.   Someone is going to say they are just prospects.  True.  How have all of the best teams in the bottom half of revenue built contenders.  They converted enough prospects into MLB players.  Players drafted or acquired as unproven players produce 80% of WAR for the vast majority of these teams.  Would anyone argue that odds of success increase with an extremely deep prospect pool?

[Linus]

I don’t like it but I think this is correct. It’s really doubtful that the Twins compete next year. In one off season they would have to completely overhaul the bullpen and acquire two difference making bats. That ain’t happening. Since 2027 is highly questionable you will have wasted their last two years of control. If you can bring back a couple of athletic young bats and some of this pitching develops you could have a great team in 2028 not a wish and a prayer team which they have now. 
 

By the way, anyone who states “ starting pitching logjam” needs to seek immediate help. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

I don't understand the hesitation in making prospects into relief pitchers. It should not mean that they will always remain relief pitchers. Remember Johan Santana? The Twins have plenty of "starting pitchers". Many are "prospects". Prospects would be cheap, available, immediate solutions to the Twins having decimated its relief corps. Plus it allows the prospects to audition and to show what they can do in tense major league situations. 

[Nashvilletwin]

Good article with the correct conclusion. But the author kind of buried the lede: namely, the Twins will never, ever resign either Ryan or Lopez.  They are gone after 2027 with 100% certainty.  And, in Ryan’s case for sure at least, he can’t wait   

Couple that blinding statement of the obvious with the young, transitioning roster projecting to be non competitive in 2026 and a lockout coming in 2027, that means their two years left of control (and expensive control at that) is really just one year of anticipated futility.

So, sadly yes, the author is correct. Ryan and Lopez must be traded. It’s the smart move for sure.

However, in order to really maximize the return on those trades likely to be for young, cheap, projectable talent, then the 2nd derivative decision to replace Rocco must also be made; otherwise, a good portion of the value from the trades will be wasted. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

2 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

What would the return be specifically? They have to get players back that would be on the 2026 team if they trade either of them. Who are those players and where would they play in 2026?

I can’t see trading either for prospects alone. They have prospects 

Directionally agreed, return matters a lot. In terms of value, the when matters less. This team as constructed, with this ownership is going to suck horribly for an undetermined amount of time, with or without Ryan and Lopez, and probably well past Ryan and Lopez’ tenure with the Twins.

the CBA looks to be lockout bound Dec 1, 2026. I’m guessing we’ll lose games in 2027.

MLR influenced me on the timeline

id look for several high end prospects in high A, double A. Players who could be knocking on MLB door end of 2026, into 2027, so you could make a case for relevancy in 2028.

id also look more for hitting prospects than pitching. This team has shown some capability of developing pitchers in the high levels of the minors and young major leaguers, not so much hitters.

[DJL44]

54 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

The Twins are a very poor fielding team. We saw the limited range of their infielders on display last night in a blowout to San Diego. Teams can live with one or two below average fielders but it is a nightmare for pitchers when most of the gloves are deficient. Improvements are needed.

I agree with this, especially with a young pitching staff. Isaiah Kiner-Falefa is apparently on waivers and would be an upgrade on Ryan Fitzgerald.

[strumdatjag]

It is so disappointing that we have reached a point where we are trying to justify dumping our top two starting pitchers.   It needs to be discussed because the owners are NOW unwilling to spend enough to put a quality product on the field.  I emphasized the word NOW, because I believe the Pohlads spent reasonably over the past few years, even if some of the spending (Donaldson and to a lesser extent Correa) didn’t pan out. 

[T.O.]

The Twins did so great on the last round of salary dump, can't wait to see what they could get this time. More "prospects", aka "not ready for prime time now and maybe never ready".

 

Prospects! Is thar gold in them thar hills?