The Twins Should Trade Both Pablo Lopez and Joe Ryan This Offseason

[DJL44]

3 hours ago, Eric Blonigen said:

If the front office tenders a contract to all arbitration-eligible players and retains everyone under team control for next season, the projected salaries work out to around $95 million. That sure doesn’t give Derek Falvey and Jeremy Zoll much to work with, despite some obvious needs. Lopez and Ryan, between them, figure to eat up about 30% of that theoretical, self-imposed payroll limit. Eliminating $30 million from the books will allow for some interesting pickups to at least be possible.

Interesting, but almost certainly less valuable than keeping Ryan and Lopez.

[hitterscount]

2 hours ago, Doug Y said:

It is too hard to draft, develop, trade for, and certainly acquire top end pitching talent by free agency. I would certainly not trade it away and hope the return players develop. You can’t compete without high end starters. 

I see no reason to trade either Lopez or Ryan unless a proposal is so good that even Falvey couldn't get it wrong. Unfortunately his trading disaster at the deadline nettted a couple of weak left handed hitting OF's , a utility journeyman minor leaguer, and two SP's that haven't produced when called up to the MLB level, in fairness they are young. We need 4-5 BP arms and 5-6 everyday lineup guys. So there's that!

I would prefer to hold onto Lopez and Ryan until the trading deadline next season if we are as bad as expected, they are both signed through 27 so they will still have plenty of value at that time.

[weitz41]

This team has made the playoffs once with Ryan, Lopez, Correa and company. At some point doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results has to end.

The offence has been the issue the last two seasons. I don't expect it to all the sudden be a top 10 offence. So, I expect one or both of them to be traded. This offseason is probably the best time to maximize the return.

If that does happen, reinvesting that money into extensions may be the best way to bridge the team to the 2027 or 2028 season when this wave of young pitchers should be hitting their stride. Plus, guys like Culpepper, Jenkins, Gabby and a few others should be getting comfy in the Bigs.

Not thrilled with this outcome but seems the most likely under current FO and owners...

 

[The Great Hambino]

2 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

What would the return be specifically? They have to get players back that would be on the 2026 team if they trade either of them. Who are those players and where would they play in 2026?

I can’t see trading either for prospects alone. They have prospects 

On the position player side, I don't think there's a single position other than CF that we can look at and say, "nope, no upgrade needed at all, we're definitely all set for the future."  What we have are over a dozen ifs that, if most of them hit, then maybe they might have an outside shot at contention next year.  IF Lee can maintain his recent run, IF Keaschall's arm isn't permanently ruined and he can stick at 2B, IF prospects like Jenkins and Culpepper can come up and produce immediately without the usual setbacks, IF Outman and Roden aren't a couple of lemons, IF Lewis can put it all together for more than three weeks at a time, IF catching depth can materialize from somewhere, etc. etc.

And this is just the lineup.  There's a whole lot of ifs needed to break your way to convert a pile of fringey starter prospects into a full rotation and bullpen in less than a season's time.  Because that's what also needs to happen if they plan on contenting next year.

So who should be getting targeted in trade?  Any bats (well, maybe not LH hitting corner outfielders) that could be contributing at the major league level by the end of 2026.  If you're relying on ifs to get by, then you need as many ifs as you can get your hands on.

If they're not making painful 40-man decisions, then they don't have too many prospects.  They are not making painful 40-man decisions at this time.

[terrydactyls]

1 hour ago, bunsen82 said:

I have struggled with how a trade would look and how you could handle all the movie parts. 

I would suggest Javier Bardem and Ryan Gossling be cast as Lopez and Ryan in your movie.

[Mike Sixel]

15 minutes ago, The Great Hambino said:

On the position player side, I don't think there's a single position other than CF that we can look at and say, "nope, no upgrade needed at all, we're definitely all set for the future."  What we have are over a dozen ifs that, if most of them hit, then maybe they might have an outside shot at contention next year.  IF Lee can maintain his recent run, IF Keaschall's arm isn't permanently ruined and he can stick at 2B, IF prospects like Jenkins and Culpepper can come up and produce immediately without the usual setbacks, IF Outman and Roden aren't a couple of lemons, IF Lewis can put it all together for more than three weeks at a time, IF catching depth can materialize from somewhere, etc. etc.

And this is just the lineup.  There's a whole lot of ifs needed to break your way to convert a pile of fringey starter prospects into a full rotation and bullpen in less than a season's time.  Because that's what also needs to happen if they plan on contenting next year.

So who should be getting targeted in trade?  Any bats (well, maybe not LH hitting corner outfielders) that could be contributing at the major league level by the end of 2026.  If you're relying on ifs to get by, then you need as many ifs as you can get your hands on.

If they're not making painful 40-man decisions, then they don't have too many prospects.  They are not making painful 40-man decisions at this time.

This. Every baseball player was once a prospect. I understand many here don't agree, but go get top prospects in AA.

I just don't see a realistic path to real success next year. I have no interest in losing these two for nothing, just to maybe win 85 games. 

I'm also on the side in believing a lockout is extremely likely. , meaning you really don't want older guys. 

I'd likely keep Pablo, because I believe in mentors. If so, I deal both Ryan and Ober.

[TNtwins85]

2 hours ago, DJL44 said:

I think they are sure to trade one of Ryan, Ober and Lopez this winter. I don't think they need to trade more than one of them.

I agree with this. They have plenty of prospects, especially for the outfield. They need a 2nd catcher, a first baseman and some relief pitching. I'm not trading Joe Ryan or Pablo Lopez for that.

Ideally they can trade Ober to a team that wants to overlook 2025. He's probably not in the top 5 on the depth chart anymore. Pablo / Ryan / Bradley / Matthews / SWR looks like a competitive rotation with plenty of depth in AAA. Festa might be the pitcher who moves to the bullpen and dominates.

I proposed Ober and Larnach to the Orioles for Rutschman and Mountcastle. That trade could help both teams.

Everything sounds good and I’m on board. Baltimore will never do that deal. For Rutschman it would probably take one of Ryan, Lopez, Mathew’s just to get the conversation started. No way they give up just Rutschman for that package let alone Mouncastle as well. 

[Maybe Next Year]

Yes, sure, by all means trade them. Then kiss any chance of contending for the next 4-5 years goodbye. Have fun attracting any free agents to a team that will be destined to have multiple back to back losing seasons. Even worse, as long as Baldelli and his coaching staff are still in charge you can forget about developing any young players acquired in trades. Just expect more of the same, poor hitting, horrible defense and overall sloppy undisciplined play.

[saviking]

3 hours ago, Whitey333 said:

Nice article Eric.  Well thought out.  I think they will trade both too.  But mainly to save money and if it works out that's fine.  All the prospects you mention are just suspects until and IF they prove themselves.  Every year it's the same:  Way too much hype on totally unproven major league wannabes.  This is what it comes down to.  Hype and hope.  Over hype the value and potential prospe ts and hope the fan base buys into it.  

If we cant compete for the next 2 years then might as well get a haul for then because they will be gone anyway for 2028. But you better get some high level pitching prospects for them because none of the starters left more than middle of number 3 starters or lower. With maybe the exception of Mathews. 

[Mike Sixel]

7 minutes ago, Maybe Next Year said:

Yes, sure, by all means trade them. Then kiss any chance of contending for the next 4-5 years goodbye. Have fun attracting any free agents to a team that will be destined to have multiple back to back losing seasons. Even worse, as long as Baldelli and his coaching staff are still in charge you can forget about developing any young players acquired in trades. Just expect more of the same, poor hitting, horrible defense and overall sloppy undisciplined play.

How does trading two guys who won't be here in three years make them worse 3-5 years from now?

[MikeNC]

The $21M  Lopez salary, absolutely.  No sense paying that on a non-competitive team.  Joe Ryan will be more affordable, even after arbitration, but he really wants to go.  Only paid $3M this year, he will make a boat load of $$ with a big market team.  FA in 2027, so sadly I think they should let him go and get his $$, he won’t get them here.  You can’t rebuild a half-burnt down house.  Raze it, then begin again with the ONLY model that can work for the small market Twins:  A bunch of young guys that come together and gell into a team that can get to the playoffs, and with 2 top pitchers can win a 7 game series.  THAT was how they won the World Series. THAT was fun beyond description.

[DJL44]

33 minutes ago, TNtwins85 said:

Everything sounds good and I’m on board. Baltimore will never do that deal. For Rutschman it would probably take one of Ryan, Lopez, Mathew’s just to get the conversation started. No way they give up just Rutschman for that package let alone Mouncastle as well. 

They're not getting a cheap, ace pitcher for an average catcher getting paid an average wage. That's delusional. Mountcastle might be non-tendered, he's projected to make $10M in arbitration.

If your paycheck is equal to your production, you don't have much trade value. That's true with Ober, Larnach, Rutschman and Mountcastle.

[DJL44]

23 minutes ago, MikeNC said:

The $21M  Lopez salary, absolutely.  No sense paying that on a non-competitive team. 

Zebby Matthews was mentioning in his interview last night how valuable it is to have Lopez and Ryan on the team and how much he has learned in his off the field preparation from them.

[Eris]

The Hot Stove League starts early. Normally we don’t get these articles until after the World Series. How does anyone really know how much the Twins are planning on spending next year. Did Dan Hayes give a source. If not then the article is just about clicks. 
 

The reason the Twins are doing poorly this year is because we have too many players who can’t hit and can’t play defense. Any trade proposals aimed at improving the team needs to address these issues. The Twins need to improve 1B, 3B,LF,RF, backup C and possibly SS (although Brooks Lee might be good enough until Culpepper arrives if Culpepper is the solution at SS). Generally trading your best players will not make the team better unless they are used to address these weaknesses. One way of looking at it internally is would the Twins be willing to trade Joe Ryan for a Walker Jenkins). 

[DannySD]

There's no reason to group the two together. Trading Lopez/Larnach and using that money on offense could keep payroll around $100 while being competitive-ish. 

[karcherd]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

I agree with this, especially with a young pitching staff. Isaiah Kiner-Falefa is apparently on waivers and would be an upgrade on Ryan Fitzgerald.

And who would he replace in the lineup.  They are going to and should give run to Lee, Lewis and Keaschall until the end of the season.  So who the backup middle infielder is does not really matter because they are only going to get a few AB's a week.

[Dman]

2 hours ago, DJL44 said:

I think they are sure to trade one of Ryan, Ober and Lopez this winter. I don't think they need to trade more than one of them.

I

I agree they should only trade one and I would trade Pablo because if they are keeping payroll low it would be nice to have some room to add players if needed.  Top of the rotation starters don't grow on tree's. There is a reason there are only 20 to 30 top tier arms in the league year to year.  It's hard to be that consistent and injury free for an entire year. If you want to compete in the playoffs you need at least one and these days likely two dominant starters to have a chance.

I get that maybe the bats might not quite be ready in 2026, but if they do catch fire later in the year it sure would be nice to have the starting pitching to compete so keeping at least one of Pablo or Ryan makes sense to me.  If not there's always the deadline or next offseason to complete a trade for the other arm.  

There are so many young players coming up there doesn't even seem to be much room to get them MLB experience so trading for more seems a bit silly unless they could pry away someone with close to ready star potential from another team.

This team still has strong starting pitching and they can improve the pen in the offseason and have a lot of interesting young arms they could try there.  Hitting is the gamble they would have to take for a successful season next year.  Still I would hedge my bets which is why I agree with you that they should only trade one of the two in the offseason.

[jjswol]

It makes no sense to trade Lopez or Ryan. The Twins have good starting pitching and that will make them competitive in 2026. They also have some good position players and more good players ready or almost ready to become Twins. Why would you trade very good pitchers for potentially good pitchers or players at this point, that is dumb. Even the Pohlald's know they need to keep money coming in and the only way to do that is to field a competitive team. A competitive team that makes the playoffs has a shot in winning it all, that is all you can ask to it have a chance. The team with the best record doesn't always win the World Series. Look at 65, 87, and 91.

[Mike Sixel]

23 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Zebby Matthews was mentioning in his interview last night how valuable it is to have Lopez and Ryan on the team and how much he has learned in his off the field preparation from them.

Right. They need at least one veteran there to mentor the younger guys. 

[tony&rodney]

3 minutes ago, Eris said:

One way of looking at it internally is would the Twins be willing to trade Joe Ryan for a Walker Jenkins). 

This is correct. My answer is if the Twins were a team that was in the top 10 in runs scored but needed more depth in pitching to be in the top 10 for least runs given up ...... yes, I trade Jenkins for Ryan. I might want the other team to include a decent prospect or two from A ball. This is especially true if the team acquiring Ryan could sign him to a 4-6 year contract.

So then, how many others would think this way? More importantly is there a team in MLB that is willing to give up a Walker Jenkins type player for Joe Ryan plus ..... maybe Charlee Soto and/or Marek Houston?

[TNtwins85]

19 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

They're not getting a cheap, ace pitcher for an average catcher getting paid an average wage. That's delusional. Mountcastle might be non-tendered, he's projected to make $10M in arbitration.

If your paycheck is equal to your production, you don't have much trade value. That's true with Ober, Larnach, Rutschman and Mountcastle.

Ok. In that sense Larnach is likely to be non tendered as well. Larnach if tendered probably makes somewhere around $5M next year. Mountcastle makes almost $7M now so likely to make $9-10M next year. So eliminate that happening. The Twins aren’t paying a $9-10M player worth .5 WAR for a .3 WAR player set to make $4-5M. Ober is set to make around $6-7M as a 30yo pitcher who is struggling to throw above 90mph and is worth .8 WAR atm. Rutschman is a former #1 overall who put up big numbers for a catcher and is having his worst season so far but is still 27yo. He’s averaged 3.7 WAR for his career and is set to make somewhere between $8-10M next year. So in that sense there is no way Baltimore makes that deal knowing that Rutschman probably has a bounce back age 28 season. They don’t sell low on him now. Baltimore hangs the phone up right away in essentially an Ober for Rutschman trade. I propose selling high on Ryan and SWR for Rutschman, buying low on Coby Mayo, and Buxton insurance/ legit 4th OFer in the form of Enrique Bradfield Jr. could probably get a lottery ticket as well in the form of a Jordan Sanchez or Wilfri De La Cruz. You can then do a Vazquez/ Jeffers rotation with Jeffers and Rutschman with one playing DH or Rutschman playing 1B in the days they’re not catching. 

[MGX]

I don't think a team should ever just decide they need to trade quality players. If we get an offer for either one that blows us away that needs to be considered. If you go into the off-season with the idea that we need to trade one or both you've already given away the negotiating leverage. The FO needs to be able to say "No" to any offers in order to negotiate a deal that would be worth trading either one.

One other note Pablo Lopez making 21 million or whatever isn't an expensive contract. Quality SP's in MLB are worth at least that so lets say he's expensive, he's not.  

[Mike Sixel]

14 minutes ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

IMO no team is going to give up the farm for 1/2 a season for these guys. 2027 will be non-existent due to the CBA.

Yes. They are much more valuable in the off-season, and there are more bidders. 

[jorgenswest]

Starting pitchers are critical in the playoffs. There is no one in the organization on a path towards a game 1 playoff starter. Ryan and Lopez are that starter.

Trading Ryan and Lopez will continue the cycle of mediocrity. In this trade environment teams are not giving up top prospects. Only one moved at the deadline in De Vries. As we get closer to the 27 labor negotiations I think teams will be even more conservative about giving up prospects. The return will be underwhelming and they already have enough prospects that are struggling to be an average major leaguer much less a top of the rotation pitcher.

 

[hitterscount]

29 minutes ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

IMO no team is going to give up the farm for 1/2 a season for these guys. 2027 will be non-existent due to the CBA.

Purely speculation on the 27 season lockout.... There are always teams willing to overpay at the trading deadline. Plus the trading team wouldn't be covering either contract if that happens. 

[Dave Borton]

4 hours ago, Whitey333 said:

Nice article Eric.  Well thought out.  I think they will trade both too. ..

Between the fire sale of July and the pending end of the CBA/lockout of '27, off-season trades of Lopez and Ryan seem to be part of a plan to lower costs and position Twins for a sale.

[gman]

4 hours ago, Brett said:

OK, I’ll play.

How about Pablo Lopez and Derek Falvey to the Dodgers for Andrew Friedman?

Nah. Friedman is used to having hundreds of millions of dollars every off season to spend so he'd never get anything done with just $1.35 for free agents.

[hitterscount]

26 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Yes. They are much more valuable in the off-season, and there are more bidders. 

I agree there's more value in the winter, however, if you are not getting a deal with some guys that can play on day 1 I personally wouldn't trade them. Maybe you could land a Duran and prospect for Ryan, than yes I would do it, but the trade should address the lineup that helps now. I personally would keep one of the two and would lean towards Lopez... he seems more mature and and a better role model for the younger players. If coI uld get anything for Ober I am making that deal as well. You are probably being more realistic than me, there are to many holes to plug to be competing for a playoff spot.

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

How does trading two guys who won't be here in three years make them worse 3-5 years from now?

That is a very good question and just goes to show that these are emotional responses.  As you know, it makes them worse over the next two years and it's possible it has zero effect 3-5 years but it can't make them, worse.  However, trading players like Ryan and Lopez bring back the kind of players that will have impact 2-10 years from now.  Some people are ignoring the many examples over the past couple of decades.  The Brewers got their best SP (Peralta) for 1 year of Adam Lind.  The Guardians got Kluber, Bauer, and Clevinger as prospects.  They got several years of service from them and then traded 1 year of Kluber for Clase and 1 year of Clevinger for Naylor, Quantrill, and Arias.  Greinke was traded for Cane and Escobar.  Joe Ryan and Jhoan Duran were still prospects when acquired and there are many other examples.

[Pat]

If they do trade them, they will probably pick up a few more LH hitting outfielders.  You can never have too many.