The Twins Should Trade Both Pablo Lopez and Joe Ryan This Offseason

[Doctor Gast]

On 8/31/2025 at 4:11 PM, USNMCPO said:

Do we honestly trust in this front office enough to make quality trades that would actually help the Twins?

This FO is incapable of initiating & closing on trades. Only good deals we get, are those that fall into our laps, Falvey shouldn't get any credit for. I wonder sometimes how many good deals he passes up because of his love for certain redundant prospects & players.

[Mike Sixel]

16 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

This FO is incapable of initiating & closing on trades. Only good deals we get, are those that fall into our laps, Falvey shouldn't get any credit for. I wonder sometimes how many good deals he passes up because of his love for certain redundant prospects & players.

Like Ryan and Lopez?

[dxpavelka]

you don't get better when your best players are playing for other teams

 

[Doctor Gast]

12 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Like Ryan and Lopez?

Absolutely, TB & MIA had surplus pitching, they came to us & offered for our offense that they needed.

[Nshore]

"trade Lopez and Ryan" - I like it!  Why stop there?  Go for the total devastation, post apocalyptic, "Mad Max" approach.  Start charging $5,000 per year for TV access, trade all top minor league talent, and sell only bread and water at the stadium.

[Eric Blonigen]

3 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

you don't get better when your best players are playing for other teams

 

Sure, but that’s the point - if the Pohlads are going to operate with a $100M payroll, and Lopez and Buxton eat up 40% of that between just the two of them, there just isn’t a way to field a competitive roster. There may not be a way to get better next season without freeing up payroll to allocate to other positions of need. Swapping a couple of pitchers for a couple of boppers would help the Twins field a more complete roster, without the glut of Quad-A types we have seen over the past two seasons due to self-imposed payroll restrictions.

[Eric Blonigen]

On 8/31/2025 at 6:29 PM, Markdumont25 said:

I mostly agree. To be clear, I would have done a lot differently in the last 2 years leading up to this moment, but now that we're here I just think you just strip it down to the bone and try to stockpile as much young talent for after the 2027 work stoppage. I'd love to hang on to Ryan specifically, but I don't see us being competitive for a couple years so it's kind of a waste to have him and after watching what's happened to this team, I think he's out of here as soon as he has any control over the situation.

I don't think we had to be here. But since we are here I think you just fully commit to the tear down/ rebuild.

Exactly right. With 2027 in doubt, and close to zero chance the front office has the payroll space to even attempt to re-sign them, selling high is about the only hope and will improve the chances of the next core succeeding, because this one just hasn’t.

[Eric Blonigen]

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

Absolutely, TB & MIA had surplus pitching, they came to us & offered for our offense that they needed.

And now it’s time to do it in reverse.

[Eric Blonigen]

On 8/31/2025 at 12:49 PM, Major League Ready said:

That is a very good question and just goes to show that these are emotional responses.  As you know, it makes them worse over the next two years and it's possible it has zero effect 3-5 years but it can't make them, worse.  However, trading players like Ryan and Lopez bring back the kind of players that will have impact 2-10 years from now.  Some people are ignoring the many examples over the past couple of decades.  The Brewers got their best SP (Peralta) for 1 year of Adam Lind.  The Guardians got Kluber, Bauer, and Clevinger as prospects.  They got several years of service from them and then traded 1 year of Kluber for Clase and 1 year of Clevinger for Naylor, Quantrill, and Arias.  Greinke was traded for Cane and Escobar.  Joe Ryan and Jhoan Duran were still prospects when acquired and there are many other examples.

Yes. If the Pohlads are now going to pretend to be a small-market team, this is how you succeed. Unless we learn that the minority owners brought in are planning on infusing the team with additional cash, you have to maximize value when you can and operate as a small market team, even if it’s for the lamest reasons. 

[Eric Blonigen]

17 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

How much excess value does Lopez have beyond his contract?

He is owed 43.5 million over two years. I think that is about the cost of a little less than 5 WAR. I am not sure how teams will project based on his injury. He averaged 3 WAR per season from 22-24. I can’t imagine he would be projected for more than that so max 6 over two years. I don’t think an excess of 1 WAR beyond the contract is going to net a significant prospect return. The real value to the owners will be the salary savings. What kind of return should we expect for Lopez?

 

A major league bat that’s also starting to get a little expensive? If you believe in a retool rather than a rebuild, which I think is completely fair, then a 1:1 swap could make sense. Someone with a 115-120 OPS+ that can play a decent first base could do the trick.

[Doctor Gast]

59 minutes ago, Eric Blonigen said:

And now it’s time to do it in reverse.

"Absolutely, TB & MIA had surplus pitching, they came to us & offered for our offense that they needed."

This is where the problem is. Falvey is incapapable to initiate & close on a trade, When he does they are nothing burger (Richards) or bad (Mahle, J Lopez or Paddack). His strategy is sit back & wait.

 

[LA Vikes Fan]

On 8/31/2025 at 6:11 AM, Paul Walerius said:

This maybe off the wall, I like him as a starter but I do think Matthews has the stuff and mentality to be the closer.  SWR is a soft thrower so he could be pen.   There are so many pieces the problem is Rocco has not shown that he can put them in the right position yet.  

I hear you on the transition but I would make Festa the closer and also move SWR to the pen. The main reason is Festa's shoulder issues make me think he isn't physically cut out to throw 150 innings a year, much like Duran and Stewart both weren't. Festa has the strikeout stuff to close if he has the mental toughness. SWR reminds me a little of Jax, although SWR is a better starter than Jax ever was. Both have some good pitches but neither has the stuff to go around the lineup 3 times, something a starter has to be able to do. 

I'd like to see both Festa and SWR in the pen next year in important roles. Matthews and Bradley are in spots 4 and 5 in the rotation, with Hatch and SWR in the BP available to spot start or join in in case of injury. AAA rotation is a combination of Abel, Rojas, Klein, Raya, Prielipp, Andrew Morris, plus CJ Culpeper up from AA. Gives us the 5 starters plus 9 deep in realistic reserve. 

BTW, I'm also concerned about whether Ober will be ok as a starter next year. Hopefully this year is the result of an injury and he'll be back to his old solid #3/#4 starter self in 2026. Still, he always had marginal stuff and he's now had his ERA go up 4 years in a row, Add to that, he's already 30.  I hope I'm wrong but it wouldn't surprise me to see him continue to decline. He may be the right guy to trade although I wonder if he has much value any more beyond a 40-45FV prospect.  

[whosafraidofluigirussolo]

The idea behind building a pitching pipeline, or stockpiling guys considered potential impact pitchers, is that having more of these pitchers to work with gives the organization a better chance at scouting and development wins.

The established arms discussed in the article all represent clear successes of scouting and development in some proportion—López maybe heavier on scouting, but tweaking his pitch mix was a developmental step as well. Even if Ober is not really "front of rotation" at this point, he is a clear scouting and dev win for a later-round draftee.

The trouble with trading these pitchers: trading the guys who are scouting and dev successes ratchets up, significantly, the difficulty of the org's task with pitching. It's not just a simple exchange of "trade one guy we succeeded with so we find the next one." Trading the guy who was a gamble that worked out, for the next set of gambles, just multiplies the chances the org takes and the downside where none of the new guys turn out nearly as well.

... Especially when a trade candidate is as relatively cheap as Ryan is. I get that the Rays (to name the most obvious example) work in a financial model where they have to do this kind of roster churning pretty ruthlessly. But if the Twins need to pare down so much that they can't keep a front-end starter on a 2nd-year arb salary, that is a dire state for the team and undercuts anything Falvey may say about trying to win.

[BD57]

I'd love to see the Twins contend in 2026.  Problem is, where are the runs coming from?

Buck & Jeffers are productive.  Wallner, I'm not sold on.   

I'm not sure what we have with Lewis - prior to this year, I was thinking good things, now .... 

Pitching, what would we have if Joe & Pablo are gone?   I don't see a #2 starter in the bunch, let alone a #1.   

Seems the Twins are forever stuck with ownership which wants to make a buck off of baseball WHILE they own the club as well as when they sell.   While it's their money & they have every right to spend it however they wish, they're not giving Twins fans much to root for.   

[dxpavelka]

20 hours ago, Eric Blonigen said:

Sure, but that’s the point - if the Pohlads are going to operate with a $100M payroll, and Lopez and Buxton eat up 40% of that between just the two of them, there just isn’t a way to field a competitive roster. There may not be a way to get better next season without freeing up payroll to allocate to other positions of need. Swapping a couple of pitchers for a couple of boppers would help the Twins field a more complete roster, without the glut of Quad-A types we have seen over the past two seasons due to self-imposed payroll restrictions.

Amazing how many folks know what the Pohlads are going to do.

[S Bart]

Why not just try to move the team to Nashville? There is the enjoyment of watching 2 quality pitchers. The Pohlads have totally destroyed the team and my 60 year passion of following the Twins.😔 They deserve all of the fan hatred being bestowed upon them.