The Twins Should Trade Both Pablo Lopez and Joe Ryan This Offseason

[TwinsAlmostWin]

I know my take won’t be popular, but I whole-heartedly agree they should both be sold high while we can. The Twins aren’t winning a WS anytime soon, so pickup as many high end prospects as we possibly can and play for a new competitive window starting in 2027. Twins fans need to give up this idea that potentially winning 85 games next year will somehow be a good thing because it won’t result in a WS. They need a complete overhaul. Loading up on as many high end prospects as you can is the most likely way to win in the future given the teams lack of spending capacity. 

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, USAFChief said:

They've already gutted themselves severely, might as well go full seppuku.

By any other name...

 

[ashbury]

23 minutes ago, GNess said:

Are we sure this isn't just a way to hide a salary dump?

They say PoTayTo, you say PoTahTo.

[USAFChief]

1 hour ago, jorgenswest said:

Can’t concur here. It is possibly irrational hope. I would think trades from their prospect pool could make them competitive next year and are a better route than free agency. Some good bats move every winter. They are allowed to win those deals.

I believe there exists a front office and manager that can make this team competitive next year with the foundation of Lopez and Ryan in the rotation. I also am extremely skeptical that they can acquire impact prospects for Ryan or Lopez. The best they could do in the summer purge was the catcher Tait who is years away and according to Fangraphs a high risk FV 45+. A 45 has the projection of a platoon utility player. MLB has him at 50 or an average regular.

I would rather keep the potential of them starting 64 games next year. Those games matter. I will be watching or listening. I also think they have a positive impact on the young roster that has value. 

 

Fair take, if they make trades from the minors.

I don't see it, but it's possible. 

 

[Eris]

3 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

With the prospects that the Twins picked up during the sell-off, I don't see us being competitive next season

I think Twins can be competitive next year especially if they don’t trade pitching without equivalent replacement options. During the month of August, the Twins took series'sfrom Detroit, Kansas City, and the Padres. They had a pitching meltdown in Toronto and had clunkers vs the Athletics and the White Sox. With good pitching this Twins team is capable of beating good teams. For next season, the outfield needs to be improved (Jenkins and Rodriquez), 1B and C. I think these are very doable. 

[TopGunn#22]

Wornsmooth...did you ever see Bob Gibson pitch??  If you have, and as much as I like Joe Ryan, I just can't agree there is any similarity between the two other than they are both RH SP.  

[Jacksson]

Too bad the guy in charge of negotiating the trade of Ryan & Lopez is the same guy who gutted the bullpen and cleared out the players bound for free agency after this season with very little to show for it.

Big league-ready outfielder, Alan Roden stunk before getting hurt, right handed starter Mick Abel was also showing NOTHING before getting BOMBED the other day,  James Outman has shown why the Dodgers considered him to be DISPOSIBLE, Taj Bradley has been a WARM BODY on the 26 man roster so far. The other bodies received in return are YEARS away from any meaningful MLB level contribution AND there is ZERO received to fill current roster gaps:  Catcher, 1st Base, RH hitting 4th OF, LH Starter, LH Bullpen, Closer.

PBO needs to go to back to school on negotiating with teams on trades !! 

 

[Mike Sixel]

16 minutes ago, Jacksson said:

Too bad the guy in charge of negotiating the trade of Ryan & Lopez is the same guy who gutted the bullpen and cleared out the players bound for free agency after this season with very little to show for it.

Big league-ready outfielder, Alan Roden stunk before getting hurt, right handed starter Mick Abel was also showing NOTHING before getting BOMBED the other day,  James Outman has shown why the Dodgers considered him to be DISPOSIBLE, Taj Bradley has been a WARM BODY on the 26 man roster so far. The other bodies received in return are YEARS away from any meaningful MLB level contribution AND there is ZERO received to fill current roster gaps:  Catcher, 1st Base, RH hitting 4th OF, LH Starter, LH Bullpen, Closer.

PBO needs to go to back to school on negotiating with teams on trades !! 

 

You mean the guy who traded for those two? Maybe his timeline isn't the same this time?

[glunn]

If I was trying to sell the team I would focus on increasing revenues not cutting expenses. Trading the top two pitchers does not seem wise. How many more seats will go empty next year if they trade these popular players? If we factor in reduced attendance, how much would they really save?

[Jacksson]

5 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

You mean the guy who traded for those two? Maybe his timeline isn't the same this time?

NO.  The guy who would be trading them AWAY, who is the same guy that engineering the underwhelming return for gutting the bullpen and dumping the post 2025 free agents.

[beckmt]

16 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

Starting pitchers are critical in the playoffs. There is no one in the organization on a path towards a game 1 playoff starter. Ryan and Lopez are that starter.

Trading Ryan and Lopez will continue the cycle of mediocrity. In this trade environment teams are not giving up top prospects. Only one moved at the deadline in De Vries. As we get closer to the 27 labor negotiations I think teams will be even more conservative about giving up prospects. The return will be underwhelming and they already have enough prospects that are struggling to be an average major leaguer much less a top of the rotation pitcher.

 

Joe Ryan already wants out of here, your odds of resigning him are about 1%, so you have to max value there.  He would already have been gone if the Red Sox GM was not an idiot. There are many contending clubs that need starting pitching, most will give value to get a Lopez/Ryan starter.  Actually a major league starting outfielder or catcher would be good start, plus prospects. 

[beckmt]

I can see a Twins payroll as low as $60 - $70 million.  Lopez, Ryan, and Larnach are $35 million right there.  Toss in Wallner and maybe Ober, you are getting into this range.  I actually prefer the team the Twins are building now, one based on speed and better fielding.  We don't know what the returns are yet on the trades, but on the Outman for Stewart trade, Stewart is probably done for the year.  Mid level starters are turning into decent relievers at a growing rate, so all those pitchers the Twins have in the pipeline should have uses in the next two years.  And maybe you can catch lightning in a bottle. 

[Major League Ready]

7 hours ago, glunn said:

If I was trying to sell the team I would focus on increasing revenues not cutting expenses. Trading the top two pitchers does not seem wise. How many more seats will go empty next year if they trade these popular players? If we factor in reduced attendance, how much would they really save?

Buyers don't think in terms of the next two years.  Let's also not forget attendance has been mediocre and that's the kind of attendance mediocre teams get.  The only way to really draw big is to put a true contender on the field and a more exciting brand of baseball would also help.  They were going nowhere with what they had so why would any potential owner see the best route for increasing revenue as doing the same thing and expecting a different result.  They may or may not succeed but the path they have chosen has a much higher upside than the path they were on.

Houston has grown their revenue substantially.  How did they start their improved play and growth?  They gutted it to the studs.  If I recall correctly, their payroll was around $30M.  A low payroll is a byproduct of a rebuild.  You are assuming it's a byproduct of a desire to lower payroll.  It is also possible the FO viewed a rebuild as the best long-term move for the franchise.  My guess is it's both.  I can see Falvey pitching the Pohlad's that this strategy will improve profitability for a couple years and build a team that will generate excitement and more revenue for several years.  Pohlad's say hell yes, sign me up.

[Bodie]

Until the fabled "pitching pipeline" looks like something other than a sewer pipe, you don't trade decent starting pitching at all.

And you sure AF don't trade good starting pitching!  Discussion over.

[jorgenswest]

2 hours ago, beckmt said:

Joe Ryan already wants out of here, your odds of resigning him are about 1%, so you have to max value there.  He would already have been gone if the Red Sox GM was not an idiot. There are many contending clubs that need starting pitching, most will give value to get a Lopez/Ryan starter.  Actually a major league starting outfielder or catcher would be good start, plus prospects. 

I recall people saying the same thing about Byron. The argument was that he was ticked off on how they handled his service time. There was no basis in fact but it was irresponsibly repeated so many times that it was taken as fact. No one could ever show a clip of Byron saying he wanted out of here so I believed it was nonsense then. Do we have that clip from Joe? Let’s be responsible in how we characterize what Joe is thinking.

[DJL44]

20 hours ago, TNtwins85 said:

Ober is set to make around $6-7M as a 30yo pitcher who is struggling to throw above 90mph and is worth .8 WAR atm. Rutschman is a former #1 overall who put up big numbers for a catcher and is having his worst season so far but is still 27yo….knowing that Rutschman probably has a bounce back age 28 season. They don’t sell low on him now. Baltimore hangs the phone up right away in essentially an Ober for Rutschman trade. 

I guess I don’t see Rutschman as a better bet to rebound than Ober. Both have been better in prior seasons. Baltimore needs pitching and the Twins need another catcher.

[tony&rodney]

35 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

I recall people saying the same thing about Byron. The argument was that he was ticked off on how they handled his service time. There was no basis in fact but it was irresponsibly repeated so many times that it was taken as fact. No one could ever show a clip of Byron saying he wanted out of here so I believed it was nonsense then. Do we have that clip from Joe? Let’s be responsible in how we characterize what Joe is thinking.

You have a fair point. Ryan has two more years under Twins control, which is going to cost somewhere near $20M. At that point he is a free agent. Since the idea and viewpoint is that Ryan will remain a good pitcher, we can then expect he will hold leverage in all negotiations. If Ryan is healthy, a contract post 2027 would approach $200M. Extending Ryan now would save some money. We have no idea what Ryan's thoughts are, but we can safely suggest adding years will cost. Assuming health, a bargain would be around $150M or more for six years if negotiated and agreed to this coming offseason. 

Will the Twins, in 2025, sign a pitcher to a large extension? 

A larger point though is how the Twins see their organization now and going forward. I have no idea what The Plan is for the team. Currently the Twins have a pile of DH only players. Pitching is difficult when the ground balls always find a hole and the fly balls drop. The differences among fans often come down to how they see individual players and the range of expected deficiencies people believe are acceptable as a tradeoff for offense. This is where the announcers keep suggesting that so and so is improving or recent numbers tell us that so and so is now playing average defense. What I see is that the Twins often look like those White Sox teams where the ball always eluded their defender's gloves. So I'm wondering how the team can complete transactions/ trades to improve the athleticism of the team.

It becomes circular. How do the Twins improve without trading their best asset, Joe Ryan? What does Ryan think? I suspect we shall find out this winter. The only thing I'm certain of is that I have zero control over this and that the current product is, at best, a 75 win team.

[Paul Walerius]

16 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Baldelli is responsible for the pitcher’s lack of availability/health???

Lopez - Ober - Matthews - Festa - SWR ALL on IL within past few weeks …….. when they do pitch it’s often a disappointment! How is “his positioning” of starters, other than giving them the ball, in question?

My comment was meant for the overall team not just the starters.   I understand health issues but many times he has snatched defeat out of the grasps of a win because he takes a starter out.   Guys like Alex Cora or AJ Hinch consistently make good decisions, now maybe they are finding new ways to cheat.  I don't know.   

 

[TNtwins85]

12 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

I guess I don’t see Rutschman as a better bet to rebound than Ober. Both have been better in prior seasons. Baltimore needs pitching and the Twins need another catcher.

I would absolutely love a Rutschman for Ober trade as I still see Rutschman as having massive upside and he slides in to this lineup perfectly. Especially in a rotation with Jeffers and at 1B when not catching. I just think Baltimore values him more than us Twins fans think. He’s got one more year of control as well and helps the bridge to Tait. If it’s Ober I think you’ve gotta package another SP to get Rutschman.

[TNtwins85]

14 hours ago, TwinsAlmostWin said:

I know my take won’t be popular, but I whole-heartedly agree they should both be sold high while we can. The Twins aren’t winning a WS anytime soon, so pickup as many high end prospects as we possibly can and play for a new competitive window starting in 2027. Twins fans need to give up this idea that potentially winning 85 games next year will somehow be a good thing because it won’t result in a WS. They need a complete overhaul. Loading up on as many high end prospects as you can is the most likely way to win in the future given the teams lack of spending capacity. 

I think you keep Pablo because with his salary you don’t get the haul you expect. Ryan though… if a haul is to be had you deal him. People need to understand where the Twins are. They’re not and shouldn’t be a team that signs 30 something year old pitchers to extensions. You operate like Cleveland and when he’s high you deal him for a haul. No need to trade Pablo. You ride out his contract and he brings stability to the young guys. I’ve suggested many times on here in the last week a Ryan and SWR to Baltimore for Rutschman, Mayo and Bradfield package. If we can do that and somehow piece together some kind of competent bullpen they compete next year. 

[jorgenswest]

20 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Yes. They are much more valuable in the off-season, and there are more bidders. 

I have wondered about this and don’t have an answer. The Brewers had to wait a long time to move Burnes while free agency sorted itself out. He was traded in February, by then many of the potential bidders had filled their need in free agency.

How does the supply of free agents impact the market in the offseason?

I do agree that Burnes was more valuable in the offseason. He came with a potential comp pick that would not have been awarded if he had been traded midseason. That isn’t true for Ryan or Lopez this off season though.

The return for Burnes was DL Hall and Joey Ortiz. Ortiz is a very good defender at shortstop that hasn’t hit yet. He has an OPS+ of 72. Hall has pitched 37 innings in relief. At the time it seemed like a mediocre return and two seasons later it still seems that way. It is true that Burnes had just once season left but he also is a better starter than either Ryan or Lopez.

I am not convinced that trading Ryan or Lopez now will be a significantly different value given the starters in free agency. I also don’t believe that an extra year of service time will gain that much value. Teams were very conservative moving prospects at the deadline. Only one top flight prospect was moved in De Vries. The rest were FV 50 and below. 

[DJL44]

21 hours ago, karcherd said:

And who would he replace in the lineup.  They are going to and should give run to Lee, Lewis and Keaschall until the end of the season.  So who the backup middle infielder is does not really matter because they are only going to get a few AB's a week.

I don't see Lee as a long-term solution at SS and I'm not impressed with Keaschall at 2B. I agree that they'll give both players lots of innings but there is an opportunity to DH Keaschall more often or replace players on defense in late innings.

[Major League Ready]

2 hours ago, Bodie said:

Until the fabled "pitching pipeline" looks like something other than a sewer pipe, you don't trade decent starting pitching at all.

And you sure AF don't trade good starting pitching!  Discussion over.

Teams trade good pitching, especially in a period when they are not contending.  This has been especially true for the most successful teams in the bottom half of revenue.  Are you just not aware this has happened often or are you choosing to ignore it?  The only small market team (KC) to win the WS in the last 20 years acquired their best player (Cane) and a good SS (Escobar) by trading a pitcher (Greinke) that was better than Ryan. 

[karcherd]

11 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

I don't see Lee as a long-term solution at SS and I'm not impressed with Keaschall at 2B. I agree that they'll give both players lots of innings but there is an opportunity to DH Keaschall more often or replace players on defense in late innings.

I am still not sold that Lee is the long term solution but I would rather have him than a 1 year stopgap next year if Culpepper isn't ready.  But he has more upside than Fitzgerald or Kiner, so let him play.  Keaschall is too young and athletic to make into a DH.  He has just over 70 games in professional ball at 2B, put him out there like they are doing and let him play.  Not every player is a finished product.  If TD had their way Koskie would have never played more than one season for the Twins.  This philosophy of playing players everywhere in the minor leagues is not preparing them to play in the major leagues.  Give them a position and let them get comfortable and work to improve.

[Doctor Gast]

12 hours ago, Eris said:

I think Twins can be competitive next year especially if they don’t trade pitching without equivalent replacement options. During the month of August, the Twins took series'sfrom Detroit, Kansas City, and the Padres. They had a pitching meltdown in Toronto and had clunkers vs the Athletics and the White Sox. With good pitching this Twins team is capable of beating good teams. For next season, the outfield needs to be improved (Jenkins and Rodriquez), 1B and C. I think these are very doable. 

As I stated Eris, I also think there's a path for the Twins to be competitive if they don't trade away Ryan & Lopez or getting back equivelent (which would be difficult). The last 2 years, I had hoped that the Twins would advance well into the postseason. But the lack of supplementing our needs during the offseason, poor managing & developing, I predicted both years we wouldn't make the playoffs. It took years for the Twins to develop the BP to where it was. It took years for Correa to develop his expertise at SS (positioning, etc). Bader was important to make our OF stronger, Castro provided much needed depth at key positions. We'll lose valuable defense in Vazquez. Yes, the young players have shown some chemistry, agressive baserunning & clutch hitting to pull off some wins. But IMO, it's not enough to overcome the inferior INF & catching, fragile rotation & gutted BP. & most of all our incapable management. So, my expectations even before the offseason starts that we'll have a much worse '26. I hope they don't trade away Ryan or Lopez because as this big sell-off I don't trust Falvey to make the needed trades. Our biggest hinderance is Falvey & Co, nothing will get better until they're gone. I'm glad you're hopeful for '26, I am not.

[Stew]

I hear a lot of wild ideas from people whom I'm glad don't run the twins. Yes Lopez could be traded. Twins should wait till trade deadline next year. They need to see if we are in the hunt for a playoff spot. If not we will have over half a season to show the league that Pablo has what it takes. His trade value will be huge at the deadline. I don't think teams will jump on his value at winter meetings. As for Ryan you have to be a little nuts to finally have him at a super high level. Then get rid of him in his prime. When we have years of control and he probably won't be paid more than 5 to 6 million a year. What ace pitcher is paid that low?

[The Great Hambino]

23 hours ago, USAFChief said:

There is little chance of contending in 2026. None without significant FA expenditures. That's unlikely, and even with a surprise willingness to spend, the next year's FA class is thin. 

As much as I hate rebuilds, and distrust prospects, keeping Lopez and Ryan just makes no sense. For what?

They've already gutted themselves severely, might as well go full seppuku.

 

Not possible.  Seppuku is an act of honor

But, yeah.  For what?

Just a reminder for those that insist bullpens can be easily rebuilt on the fly:  all the plans where that takes place that have been discussed here rely on at least two of Funderburk, Topa, and Sands being reliable late-inning options, at least in the first part of next year.   That's what you're banking on happening.

[jorgenswest]

How much excess value does Lopez have beyond his contract?

He is owed 43.5 million over two years. I think that is about the cost of a little less than 5 WAR. I am not sure how teams will project based on his injury. He averaged 3 WAR per season from 22-24. I can’t imagine he would be projected for more than that so max 6 over two years. I don’t think an excess of 1 WAR beyond the contract is going to net a significant prospect return. The real value to the owners will be the salary savings. What kind of return should we expect for Lopez?

 

[Major League Ready]

16 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

How much excess value does Lopez have beyond his contract?

He is owed 43.5 million over two years. I think that is about the cost of a little less than 5 WAR. I am not sure how teams will project based on his injury. He averaged 3 WAR per season from 22-24. I can’t imagine he would be projected for more than that so max 6 over two years. I don’t think an excess of 1 WAR beyond the contract is going to net a significant prospect return. The real value to the owners will be the salary savings. What kind of return should we expect for Lopez?

 

I have been asking myself the same question.  I think the way it works out is that if someone believes he can repeat 2023 (4.6 fWAR) and offers an impact prospect, he will be traded.  If not, I think they are better off to keep him as a mentor to the many young pitchers we already have and those that will be here soon.

Pablo / Zebby / Bradley / Festa and SWR has plenty of uncertainty but could be pretty darn good.  They would be a middle of the pack team if those guys performs as we believe they can perform.  Jenkins and Culpepper come along and spark the team in the 2nd half and they it could be entertaining baseball.

[TNtwins85]

9 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

Teams trade good pitching, especially in a period when they are not contending.  This has been especially true for the most successful teams in the bottom half of revenue.  Are you just not aware this has happened often or are you choosing to ignore it?  The only small market team (KC) to win the WS in the last 20 years acquired their best player (Cane) and a good SS (Escobar) by trading a pitcher (Greinke) that was better than Ryan. 

Whole heartedly agree! Around here though people still seem to think this is a video game and your favorite team just signs all the good players every time. The good players always play great into their mid to late 30’s and when you need to trade for a player you just send 3 D grade prospects with a Trevor Larnach type and you get whomever you want no questions asked. Be careful with logic and spelling out the truth for people. They can’t emotionally handle it.