The Twins Should Trade Both Pablo Lopez and Joe Ryan This Offseason

[NYCTK]

1 hour ago, jorgenswest said:

Starting pitchers are critical in the playoffs. There is no one in the organization on a path towards a game 1 playoff starter. Ryan and Lopez are that starter.

Trading Ryan and Lopez will continue the cycle of mediocrity. In this trade environment teams are not giving up top prospects. Only one moved at the deadline in De Vries. As we get closer to the 27 labor negotiations I think teams will be even more conservative about giving up prospects. The return will be underwhelming and they already have enough prospects that are struggling to be an average major leaguer much less a top of the rotation pitcher.

 

What good is a playoff game 1 starter on a 72 win team next year? 

[jorgenswest]

3 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

What good is a playoff game 1 starter on a 72 win team next year? 

My mindset isn’t so fixed but following your premise I will take 72 wins over 58. Every game matters to me.

[NYCTK]

2 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

My mindset isn’t so fixed but following your premise I will take 72 wins over 58. Every game matters to me.

Well, this is why a smart GM trades them because there really isn't a difference between 72 and 58. 

Striving for mediocity is why the Twins have been such a massive disappointment and Twins fans should ask for more. 

[jorgenswest]

5 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

Well, this is why a smart GM trades them because there really isn't a difference between 72 and 58. 

Striving for mediocity is why the Twins have been such a massive disappointment and Twins fans should ask for more. 

It is a difference to me. Today’s game is a perfect example. Really enjoying watching Ryan’s work through first five innings,

I need a GM who is going to build and not subtract. Any GM can subtract. It is far easier to trade a Duran or Ryan that acquire one.

[hitterscount]

51 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

That is a very good question and just goes to show that these are emotional responses.  As you know, it makes them worse over the next two years and it's possible it has zero effect 3-5 years but it can't make them, worse.  However, trading players like Ryan and Lopez bring back the kind of players that will have impact 2-10 years from now.  Some people are ignoring the many examples over the past couple of decades.  The Brewers got their best SP (Peralta) for 1 year of Adam Lind.  The Guardians got Kluber, Bauer, and Clevinger as prospects.  They got several years of service from them and then traded 1 year of Kluber for Clase and 1 year of Clevinger for Naylor, Quantrill, and Arias.  Greinke was traded for Cane and Escobar.  Joe Ryan and Jhoan Duran were still prospects when acquired and there are many other examples.

My only pushback on that route is.... what has Falvey,and to some extent Rocco, shown that makes you believe they can build a team for the long term? They had arguably a top 5-7 pitching staff this year and built a roster around them that couldn't hit, field, run the base paths and we're fundamentally a disaster. Literally all they needed was a team with speed and and above average defensivey... they could easily have been Milwaukee 2.0. There was zero thought put into the everyday lineup... which is concerning in a major rebuild that relies on trades.

 

[TNtwins85]

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

That is a very good question and just goes to show that these are emotional responses.  As you know, it makes them worse over the next two years and it's possible it has zero effect 3-5 years but it can't make them, worse.  However, trading players like Ryan and Lopez bring back the kind of players that will have impact 2-10 years from now.  Some people are ignoring the many examples over the past couple of decades.  The Brewers got their best SP (Peralta) for 1 year of Adam Lind.  The Guardians got Kluber, Bauer, and Clevinger as prospects.  They got several years of service from them and then traded 1 year of Kluber for Clase and 1 year of Clevinger for Naylor, Quantrill, and Arias.  Greinke was traded for Cane and Escobar.  Joe Ryan and Jhoan Duran were still prospects when acquired and there are many other examples.

Exactly! If you look at a Cleveland or Tampa Bay model which seems to be Falveys MO you trade guys like Ryan this offseason or next offseason. By trading Ryan at his peak you take the prospects rather than a draft pick and you get more lottery tickets that way. For Ryan you maybe get 3 potential Ryan’s with the hope you really get one. That’s how these teams continually compete. Yes they develop well but you’ve gotta have players with upside to develop. The more of those you have the more potential you have for another high level player. It’s all about keeping that wheel churning. Trading players at their height and getting the most in return. Doing that over and over. Why do you think they got so many high end SP’s? They’re restocking the cabinet. So many on here don’t understand what’s actually happening. 

[TNtwins85]

2 hours ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

IMO no team is going to give up the farm for 1/2 a season for these guys. 2027 will be non-existent due to the CBA.

The new CBA is already playing out. It’s gonna be a salary cap for a salary floor. They’ll argue over specifics right up until it’s time for ST and then magically everything will come together. Season maybe starts later than normal but no games are lost. With 2020 still in their minds the owners are not ready to lose any revenue again.

[ashbury]

3 hours ago, NYCTK said:

Well, this is why a smart GM trades them because there really isn't a difference between 72 and 58. 

Striving for mediocity is why the Twins have been such a massive disappointment and Twins fans should ask for more. 

72 and 58 could be the difference between fans with no paper bags on heads, and fewer fans, some with paper bags on heads.

No one's striving for mediocrity.  That's a strawman argument.  Now, incompetence, perhaps that is a topic that's on the table. 😀

[Richie the Rally Goat]

3 hours ago, Eris said:

The Hot Stove League starts early. Normally we don’t get these articles until after the World Series. How does anyone really know how much the Twins are planning on spending next year. Did Dan Hayes give a source. If not then the article is just about clicks. 
 

The reason the Twins are doing poorly this year is because we have too many players who can’t hit and can’t play defense. Any trade proposals aimed at improving the team needs to address these issues. The Twins need to improve 1B, 3B,LF,RF, backup C and possibly SS (although Brooks Lee might be good enough until Culpepper arrives if Culpepper is the solution at SS). Generally trading your best players will not make the team better unless they are used to address these weaknesses. One way of looking at it internally is would the Twins be willing to trade Joe Ryan for a Walker Jenkins). 

Welcome to Twins fandom, where the Hot Stove season has lasted from the All Star Break to April Fools Day since 1995.

[Coach Wheels]

7 hours ago, Whitey333 said:

Nice article Eric.  Well thought out.  I think they will trade both too.  But mainly to save money and if it works out that's fine.  All the prospects you mention are just suspects until and IF they prove themselves.  Every year it's the same:  Way too much hype on totally unproven major league wannabes.  This is what it comes down to.  Hype and hope.  Over hype the value and potential prospe ts and hope the fan base buys into it.  

If the Twins want to be the Miami Marlins, I'm not interestedin supporting them. Just my 2 cents.

[ashbury]

Trading the high salaries makes sense.  The Pohlads need to right-size their pockets.

[TopGunn#22]

I can see the logic of trading ONE of Ryan or Lopez, but not both.  I will temper my last sentence by acknowledging that BOTH Ryan and Lopez will see their contracts expire after the 2027 season and I don't see any scenario where a good chunk of the 2027 season isn't missed.

If I had to choose which one I'd keep the answer is easy.  Pablo Lopez.  It's not that I like Pablo more than Joe.  It's that with Pablo's $21 million dollar contract (which for a #1 or #2 is VERY reasonable) and Joe Ryan's $3 million dollar contract (probably $5 million or more next year) the Twins can get           SO MUCH MORE in a Ryan Trade.

Ryan and Lopez are practically the same age.  There is the certainty of cost for Pablo,  The Twins need his talent and leadership.  We could contend in the "less than stellar" A.L. Central with Lopez at the top of our rotation.  With neither Lopez or Ryan, we won't contend for a couple of years.

I suggest the Twins offer the White Sox Matt Wallner (29.5 BBTV) for Kyle Teel (24.8 BBTV).  The White Sox are rotating Teel and Edgar Quero at C & DH.  That's not maximizing the production for either.  I'd consider expanding the deal to sweeten the pot for the White Sox.  But I'm willing to move Wallner for a position of NEED and I see Walker Jenkins and E-Rod, not to mention Gabe Gonzalez being a Minnesota Twin sometime in 2026.  Maybe sooner than later.  

I'd trade Ryan 68.2  SWR  15.0 and Larnach 5.1  (Total 88.3)  to the Red Sox for Jarren Duran 64.4  Payton Tolle 20.0 and Tristan Casas 0.0 (Total 84.4).

I overpay to compensate for the zero value for Casas.  The Red Sox do it to get Ryan primarily, but they get SWR to bring back a young controllable pitcher to replace Tolle.  They get Larnach to replace Duran and a bat that at $5 million is a drop in the bucket to them but valuable to them at $5 million.

I trade for Yandy Diaz to play 1B.  His value is only 6.2 in BBTV.  Cody Clemens 8.4 would do the trick.

The Twins, after these 3 trades have:  (In each case I've slightly overpaid to increase the probability of these trades being completed.  

Lineup:  1. Duran LF, 2. Keaschall 2B, 3. Buxton CF, 4. Yandy Diaz 1B, 5. Jeffers/Teel C, 6. Casas DH, 7. Royce Lewis 3B, 8. Brooks Lee SS.  9. Jenkins/E-Rod RF.  (I know they both bat LH.  One or the other will break camp in 2026 a Minnesota Twin.  

I would expect Lewis to hit like our cleanup hitter in 2026.  Knowing that might not happen, or he gets hurt, he's not there to begin with.  We might have Roden/Outman in RF to begin the year until Jenkins/E-Rod arrive.  But consider the OF defense with Duran, Buxton, Roden/Outman and then Jenkins/E-Rod.  THAT'S a BIG UPGRADE.

Teel/Jeffers at Catcher is an UPGRADE.

Casas might not be ready to begin the season, in which case DH is a mix and match position.

Rotation:  Lopez, Ober, Tolle, Matthews, Bradley.  (Festa & Mick Abel provide depth, maybe BP arms).  Marco Raya, Connor Prielipp and a host of other minor league arms join Sands, Funderburk, Topa and Hatch in the BP.  Ryan Helsey is signed to be the Closer.   

With the Tigers staring at Skubal being a FA in 2027 (and the fact that 2027 may not happen or be a half season of sorts) they may have him for one more year, sign him to a HUGE extension, or also need to trade him.  

I think the above lineup, offensively and defensively as well as the rotation, could contend.  Could they contend with that BP even if they signed a good Closer like Helsley?  I don't know.  Sure wish they still had Varland for the 8th inning.  

[Twinkies are for eating]

Honestly fans should just stop going to Target field until the Pohlads sell. I’d love to see them squirm and complain about not making any money from ticket sales. I would think they would be even more motivated to sell at the real market price if this ever happened.

[USNMCPO]

Do we honestly trust in this front office enough to make quality trades that would actually help the Twins?

[KirbyDome89]

2 hours ago, NYCTK said:

Well, this is why a smart GM trades them because there really isn't a difference between 72 and 58. 

Striving for mediocity is why the Twins have been such a massive disappointment and Twins fans should ask for more. 

What does slashing payroll and diluting the MLB talent do to solve the "striving for mediocrity," problem? All the same decision makers (and ownership) are still in place. If that group has zero interest in pushing in resources to win games, why should we believe the goal of mediocrity suddenly shifts?

Also this is the same management group that has struggled with talent identification/development right? Now we're putting more eggs in that basket? 

[JD-TWINS]

8 hours ago, Paul Walerius said:

This maybe off the wall, I like him as a starter but I do think Matthews has the stuff and mentality to be the closer.  SWR is a soft thrower so he could be pen.   There are so many pieces the problem is Rocco has not shown that he can put them in the right position yet.  

Baldelli is responsible for the pitcher’s lack of availability/health???

Lopez - Ober - Matthews - Festa - SWR ALL on IL within past few weeks …….. when they do pitch it’s often a disappointment! How is “his positioning” of starters, other than giving them the ball, in question?

[Major League Ready]

2 hours ago, hitterscount said:

My only pushback on that route is.... what has Falvey,and to some extent Rocco, shown that makes you believe they can build a team for the long term? They had arguably a top 5-7 pitching staff this year and built a roster around them that couldn't hit, field, run the base paths and we're fundamentally a disaster. Literally all they needed was a team with speed and and above average defensivey... they could easily have been Milwaukee 2.0. There was zero thought put into the everyday lineup... which is concerning in a major rebuild that relies on trades.

 

I appreciate where you are coming from but let's examine for a moment if we have a different type of prospects now.  In other words, have the learned and adapted.  They have Jenkins, Rodriguez, and Fedko that are all much better athletes.  GG is a great contact hitter with decent power.  Rosario has great power with a reasonable K rate.  GG and Rosario are not great defenders but better than what we have.  They should be fielding a great OF by the middle of next year.

Now the IF.  They already have Keaschall.  Royce's defense is above average now.  I am 50/50 on him bouncing back offensively but he should bounce back to where he is at least not a liability.  Culpepper seems to be above average at every aspect of the game.  His development is really key.  So far, so good.  That would move Lee to a utility IFer which would be a great role.  Of course, there is still hope he becomes an above average bat.

We are already really deep in SP prospects.  Plus, they will get 4 good prospects by trading Lopez/Ryan.  One top 50 INFer and one top 50 SP prospect would really improve the odds of success.  Of course, there will probably be a couple of top 100 type prospects as well.  

Here is the key.  What's the alternative?  I would not want to purse strategies that are less likely to succeed regardless of who's in charge.  I would not be inclined to believe those same people would get better results following a plan with less likelihood of success.

[Doctor Gast]

With the prospects that the Twins picked up during the sell-off, I don't see us being competitive next season (Falvey promised that we'll be competitive, but I don't believe anything he says). IMO, Ryan doesn't want to stick around. Hope they keep Pablo just for the veteran presence. Our farm will be bloated with redundant players & prospects that we won't be able to develop & Falvey hates to trade for needed players. They'll waste away in the minors or lose to the Rule 5 draft even if we don't trade anybody else. I don't trust Falvey to trade for any impact player that we need. We weren't able to compete with the incomplete past core under Falvey, how can we compete with an even further fractured core? The best thing we can do is clean house in management & let the next FO figure it out.

[ashbury]

40 minutes ago, USNMCPO said:

Do we honestly trust in this front office enough to make quality trades that would actually help the Twins?

Well, Ryan and Lopez were acquired via trade in the first place.  Unless you believe recently departed Thad Levine was the keeper of that secret sauce.

[wornsmooth]

I said it two years ago. 

Joe Ryan reminds me of Bob Gibson.

So, if he stays healthy, he is likely a future Hall of Famer. A smart organization does everything they can to keep such players.

Why not keep them, pay them and WORK  at making them WANT to play for the Twins?

You don’t dump potentiaIl Hall of Famers, or let them get away. Why is that so hard to understand?

 

[TheLeviathan]

I'd deal Lopez this offseason for sure.  

Ryan....extend him.

[USAFChief]

There is little chance of contending in 2026. None without significant FA expenditures. That's unlikely, and even with a surprise willingness to spend, the next year's FA class is thin. 

As much as I hate rebuilds, and distrust prospects, keeping Lopez and Ryan just makes no sense. For what?

They've already gutted themselves severely, might as well go full seppuku.

 

[jorgenswest]

I have seen several comments across threads that the Twins need to run their organization more like the Guardians. It made me wonder how the current Giardian team was built. In particular I wondered how many of the players were acquired in trade where the Cleveland had traded off a player with more than one year of service time.

The Cleveland roster is constructed mostly of players drafted or acquired as free agent (international, minor league, rule 5). They have identified and developed those players well. There are a some players acquired in minor trades or trades in which Cleveland sent the prospects. A few where the player was in the last year of his contract. Kluber was on the last year of his contract when they acquired Clase. He was also 34 and headed towards decline.

I think two were acquired as part of a deal for a player with multiple years of service time. Gabriel Arias was acquired in the Clevinger deal during the COVID season. Clevinger. You might Clevinger had forced their hand with his actions and was optioned to the alternate training site. Arias had an FV of 40+ at the time. The other is the trade of Aaron Civale for Kyle Manzardo. Ironically this trade was with the Rays who supposedly make trades the other direction to build their roster. I will have to investigate them also.

The Guardians have not built their roster with trades of players with multiple years of service time like that of Lopez or Ryan or Duran, Jax and Varland. They built it on drafting and development. They built it on identifying players in other organizations they can acquire in minor deals or for deals of players on expiring contracts. 

[Major League Ready]

7 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

I have seen several comments across threads that the Twins need to run their organization more like the Guardians. It made me wonder how the current Giardian team was built. In particular I wondered how many of the players were acquired in trade where the Cleveland had traded off a player with more than one year of service time.

The Cleveland roster is constructed mostly of players drafted or acquired as free agent (international, minor league, rule 5). They have identified and developed those players well. There are a some players acquired in minor trades or trades in which Cleveland sent the prospects. A few where the player was in the last year of his contract. Kluber was on the last year of his contract when they acquired Clase. He was also 34 and headed towards decline.

I think two were acquired as part of a deal for a player with multiple years of service time. Gabriel Arias was acquired in the Clevinger deal during the COVID season. Clevinger. You might Clevinger had forced their hand with his actions and was optioned to the alternate training site. Arias had an FV of 40+ at the time. The other is the trade of Aaron Civale for Kyle Manzardo. Ironically this trade was with the Rays who supposedly make trades the other direction to build their roster. I will have to investigate them also.

The Guardians have not built their roster with trades of players with multiple years of service time like that of Lopez or Ryan or Duran, Jax and Varland. They built it on drafting and development. They built it on identifying players in other organizations they can acquire in minor deals or for deals of players on expiring contracts. 

I track this information annually for 90 win teams.  I don't have numbers for Cleveland 2025.  Players that produced 1.5 WAR or more for Cleveland in 2024 are listed below by acquisition method.

	#	Acquired by:	WAR	% of WAR
	3	Drafted	9	33.0%
	1	International Draft	6.5	23.8%
	5	Acquired as Prospect	11.8	43.2%
	0	Trade for Proven	0	0.0%
	0	Free Agent	0	0.0%
		TOTALS	27.3	100%

[jorgenswest]

11 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

There is little chance of contending in 2026. None without significant FA expenditures. That's unlikely, and even with a surprise willingness to spend, the next year's FA class is thin. 

As much as I hate rebuilds, and distrust prospects, keeping Lopez and Ryan just makes no sense. For what?

They've already gutted themselves severely, might as well go full seppuku.

 

Can’t concur here. It is possibly irrational hope. I would think trades from their prospect pool could make them competitive next year and are a better route than free agency. Some good bats move every winter. They are allowed to win those deals.

I believe there exists a front office and manager that can make this team competitive next year with the foundation of Lopez and Ryan in the rotation. I also am extremely skeptical that they can acquire impact prospects for Ryan or Lopez. The best they could do in the summer purge was the catcher Tait who is years away and according to Fangraphs a high risk FV 45+. A 45 has the projection of a platoon utility player. MLB has him at 50 or an average regular.

I would rather keep the potential of them starting 64 games next year. Those games matter. I will be watching or listening. I also think they have a positive impact on the young roster that has value. 

 

[jorgenswest]

9 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

I track this information annually for 90 win teams.  I don't have numbers for Cleveland 2025.  Players that produced 1.5 WAR or more for Cleveland in 2024 are listed below by acquisition method.

	#	Acquired by:	WAR	% of WAR
	3	Drafted	9	33.0%
	1	International Draft	6.5	23.8%
	5	Acquired as Prospect	11.8	43.2%
	0	Trade for Proven	0	0.0%
	0	Free Agent	0	0.0%
		TOTALS	27.3	100%

For this discussion it would be helpful to distinguish between players traded in their last year of their contract and players traded with multiple years left. It is also important to distinguish if it was a trade of minor leaguers or a trade of players without options. Cleveland has been very good at identifying minor leaguers.

They had to trade Clevinger. The players were not going to have him back on the team. That leaves Civale for Manzardo. Manzardo has produced 1.0 WAR this year. Arias acquired in the Clevenger trade is at 1.1 WAR. 

To me the debate is whether they should trade with players multiple years of control or trade when the contract is expiring. I would wait. Cleveland has mostly waited also.

[Mike Sixel]

2 hours ago, USNMCPO said:

Do we honestly trust in this front office enough to make quality trades that would actually help the Twins?

They traded for both Ryan and Lopez.....

[GNess]

If the Twins trade for prospects for Ryan and/or Lopez I am dubious that any of the prospects they get in return ever performs at the levels that Lopez and Ryan do. 

How does a consistent cycling of trading of valued, performing MLB players (seen as "assets") for more prospects ever get the Twins into a consistent contender mode? Isn't generally a successful reset like this premised on maintaining a core to build around? 

Current MLB performing core pieces: Buxton, Ryan, Lopez, Jeffers...who else - Lewis? So the Twins are going to become a contender by moving the 2 upper end starting pitchers? I just don't see the logic behind this beyond the generic view of "that's how small/mid market teams do it" - don't the specifics of of the Twins roster factor heavily in the approach chosen to improve? 

Are we sure this isn't just a way to hide a salary dump?

[DocBauer]

So they have 2 choices. Well maybe a 3rd option as well, but we'll get to that in a minute. 

DON'T TRADE:

I already made a long response piece to an OP similar to this on the FORUMS page, so I'm not going to go in to great detail here.

Look, maybe I'm just stubborn, or too much of an optimist, but I just don't see a reason to tear this whole thing down. Especially when Lopez and Ryan are still on the right side of 30yo and absolutely top of the rotation arms. I still see a viable lineup...though it needs some guys to figure stuff out...with Buxton, Wallner, Lewis, Lee, Keaschall, and Jeffers. I see Jenkins, Rodriguez, and K Culpepper all debuting at some point in 2026. And there's about 6 other OF between AAA/AA that could possibly debut/contribute begining next season

I see a payroll of $90M with Larnach moved due to the young OF prospects, and because I just don't see the Twins paying him $5M. They don't have to go on an expensive shopping spree to add some useful players to the club. Say Naylor at 1B for a solid, veteran bat. Maybe around $14-15M? How about a veteran backstop to Jeffers for around $3M? Then 2 or 3 fliers for the pen that are rebounding, or haven't quite put it all together yet but might with the Twins. Maybe Coulombe is back as one of those options? Point is, you're not going to break the bank. You're looking for the next Stewart, or Thielbar, etc. You're talking about $6-10M max there.

You're talking $28M max and keeping DH open as a rotating spot. (Unless they want to ante up extra $ for one). That puts the payroll UNDER this year's number by $10+M. And you've eliminated all that bad debt you accumulated previously. (Or most of it, depending on how they divide up their new, instant cash flow).

You've got a TON of arms to sort through for depth as well as a 2 or 3 going to the pen.

I know a prospect is a prospect until they prove themselves. But Lopez and Ryan were also just prospects at one time.

DO TRADE:

This one is pretty simple. Either ownership just wants to line their pockets in 2026 and further alienate their fan base...or...they really question if the team can win over 80 games with the talent/prospects on hand, and are scared about ML baseball in 2027 and don't want to "waste" $ as a result and decide to add MORE prospects/young talent for potential baseball in 2027 and beyond. 

If they really question the talent on hand, and their prospects debuting and taking "too much" time to settle in, and really and truly are concerned about 2027, then maybe they should just trade one or both of Lopez and Ryan and tear the whole damn thing down.

It's not what I would do, or want. And it's NOT what Eric says he wants either. But if they are really lacking in faith for immediate returns on their talent for next season and worried about 2027, then again, I can see the sense in it, even if I hate the idea.

OPTION THREE:

I don't see this happening. But what about NOT trading either of them, doing the buying I mentioned previously, give your fan base a reason to still want to come to the park...and THEN tear it down at the deadline if things aren't going well.

Both Lopez and Ryan would still offer about 1 1/2 years of control and should still bring back a solid return.

Again, I'm stubborn, and a bit too much of an optimist at times. But top end pitching is the hardest thing to develop. And I see too much potential in the players/prospects to disregard a decent lineup. If they can assemble just a decent/solid pen they have a chance to still be a decent team in 2026.

 

[Markdumont25]

I mostly agree. To be clear, I would have done a lot differently in the last 2 years leading up to this moment, but now that we're here I just think you just strip it down to the bone and try to stockpile as much young talent for after the 2027 work stoppage. I'd love to hang on to Ryan specifically, but I don't see us being competitive for a couple years so it's kind of a waste to have him and after watching what's happened to this team, I think he's out of here as soon as he has any control over the situation.

I don't think we had to be here. But since we are here I think you just fully commit to the tear down/ rebuild.