The Twins Should Trade Both Pablo Lopez and Joe Ryan This Offseason

Yes. Let's make the Twins the next laughing stock of the league. Some of these stories are absolutely crazy. There is NO REASON why the Twins cannot compete next year. They have, with both Ryan and Pablo, the makings of a top rotation which you must have in order to compete. They do need a closer and there could be some available in the off season for a reasonable price. Lewis is doing better, Wallner will be better. And hopefully Buxton will remain healthy as he is one of the best all-around players. Keashall looks real and hopefully a few others like Lee will either improve or we can get some decent replacements. We are giving some of the kids exposure and we'll see who can really help. Will we win 100 games? No. 90 games? No. But it's not inconceivable that we could get to 85 games with good health. Teams always come out of nowhere and I am not convinced that we would get enough to compete in 2-3 years if we trade them. I say do not trade either of them.

Nice article Eric.  Well thought out.  I think they will trade both too.  But mainly to save money and if it works out that's fine.  All the prospects you mention are just suspects until and IF they prove themselves.  Every year it's the same:  Way too much hype on totally unproven major league wannabes.  This is what it comes down to.  Hype and hope.  Over hype the value and potential prospe ts and hope the fan base buys into it.  

If they want to lose ALL the fans then by all means trade them both.  Could I see one of them yes, but I hope not.  I do believe they can compete next year if they keep the rotation intact.  If they trade one of them it would be tough, both, there is 0 chance.   They honestly just need to figure out the bullpen and I think Prielipp and Raya could factor in.   

Starters 

Ryan, Lopez, Ober, Matthews, and (one of SWR, Festa, Bradley, Abel)

Pen

Sands, Funderburk (maybe), Prielipp, Raya, Adams, Ohl, 

I wonder if attendance at games is meaningful. 

I guess in the Twins organization a .213 BA qualifies as hitting consistency and a logjam of starting pitchers begins with an ERA approaching 5.00 or better. 

Unfortunately you are probably correct, I would not be surprised if the two proven starters are moved.... I do believe Matthews is ready to take a step forward, which offsets Ober's decline past mediocrity into the abyss of multi homer games. 

A perfect example of what is wrong with baseball if you ‘have to’ trade 2 really good pitchers to be in contention.

reason #276 why baseball is swirling the drain.

do you know how many games I could see on tv this weekend? 1.

do you know how many college football games I could see? 10+.

Just now, Cory Engelhardt said:

The way Ober has looked lately I worry he has an injury we will find out about soon enough. 
 

I also kind of expect Festa to move to the pen.

And yeah, with a payroll already under 100 million, I can’t imagine the need to trade either Ryan or Lopez just to salary dump. That doesn’t add up for me. If they are trading either it’s because they are overwhelmed 

This maybe off the wall, I like him as a starter but I do think Matthews has the stuff and mentality to be the closer.  SWR is a soft thrower so he could be pen.   There are so many pieces the problem is Rocco has not shown that he can put them in the right position yet.  

Neither are going anywhere!!! Had Pablo been healthy we be in wild card. His injury was huge blow. If anything dump Ober!!! We got team that will be much better next year and beyond!!! Just need to stay healthy! 

I think they are sure to trade one of Ryan, Ober and Lopez this winter. I don't think they need to trade more than one of them.

56 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I can’t see trading either for prospects alone. They have prospects 

I agree with this. They have plenty of prospects, especially for the outfield. They need a 2nd catcher, a first baseman and some relief pitching. I'm not trading Joe Ryan or Pablo Lopez for that.

Ideally they can trade Ober to a team that wants to overlook 2025. He's probably not in the top 5 on the depth chart anymore. Pablo / Ryan / Bradley / Matthews / SWR looks like a competitive rotation with plenty of depth in AAA. Festa might be the pitcher who moves to the bullpen and dominates.

I proposed Ober and Larnach to the Orioles for Rutschman and Mountcastle. That trade could help both teams.

It’s tough being a fan. Yes Ryan and Lopez are top end pitchers and they are the toughest thing to find or acquire in baseball. The downside is unless we truly plan to spend in the offseason the bullpen and position players won’t be ready to compete til 2027 at the earliest.  
 

I have struggled with how a trade would look and how you could handle all the movie parts. I don’t see the vision currently. The value of Ryan would be massive. His next 2 years will most likely be meaningless with the Twins except for a 1st round pick if he signs elsewhere. Logically trading him makes a ton of sense.  

I am not a fan of trading Ryan and Lopez, which would destroy any fan optimism. But if the Pohlads want to cut salaries another $30 million, that will make it difficult to compete. If that happens the lineup will feature struggling young veterans like Lewis, Larnach, and Wallner, and lots of rookies trying to find their way, not a prescription for success. In that scenario it may be time to just blow it up and reset with young guys, especially with a possible lockout in 2027. I wonder how long Buxton would want to stay in a total rebuild. 

The problem for the Twins is in identifying which players have reached a peak and should be traded and perhaps even more importantly singling out players in deals that will be key to turning the Twins into a strong team. Along with the above long sentence issues there is the factors of whether any team sees value in a Twins player and whether any deal can shake loose a player from another team.

Will any team offer a serious top talent individual or package for Joe Ryan? There must be teams that could really use a starting pitcher such as Ryan. No team is going to trade an established star bat for Ryan. BTV would suggest Ryan is worth more than Nick Kurtz but that trade would never happen, even if the Twins added Ober. Would Detroit risk trading Max Clark for Ryan plus a minor league A ball pitcher? The trick is in finding the team willing to trade players who can make a difference at the plate, on the bases, and in the field. Readers can concoct their own ideas.

The Twins are a very poor fielding team. We saw the limited range of their infielders on display last night in a blowout to San Diego. Teams can live with one or two below average fielders but it is a nightmare for pitchers when most of the gloves are deficient. Improvements are needed.

Perhaps trading Ryan and Lopez is the path forward for the Twins but it won't make any difference if the front office cannot identify talent and convince another team to return talent in any deals.

It comes down to if you think this team can truly contend in 2026.  They were nowhere near contenders this year before they traded away their highest paid player and 4 very good BP arms.  I just can't look at the current situation given how poorly they played and the deadline trades and come to the conclusion that prioritizing the near term is the best course of action.   

Their best shot at success is transitioning Keashall / Jenkins / Culpepper and some combination of Rodriguez / GG / Rosario / Fedko, Tait, and a couple others that have a shot at being very good MLB players.  This will take a year and a half.  They can keep Ryan and Pablo during that period and possibly be fringe playoff contenders or they can add the haul they would get for Pablo and Ryan to the previously mentioned list.  That strategy has very good potential to be far better team in terms of position players for a 6-8 year period. 

They will need to replace Pablo and Ryan from the dozen SPs Eric listed.  I like the odds of that happening and they are likely to get another top pitching prospect back in trade that should be among the very best of that existing list.   Someone is going to say they are just prospects.  True.  How have all of the best teams in the bottom half of revenue built contenders.  They converted enough prospects into MLB players.  Players drafted or acquired as unproven players produce 80% of WAR for the vast majority of these teams.  Would anyone argue that odds of success increase with an extremely deep prospect pool?

I don’t like it but I think this is correct. It’s really doubtful that the Twins compete next year. In one off season they would have to completely overhaul the bullpen and acquire two difference making bats. That ain’t happening. Since 2027 is highly questionable you will have wasted their last two years of control. If you can bring back a couple of athletic young bats and some of this pitching develops you could have a great team in 2028 not a wish and a prayer team which they have now. 
 

By the way, anyone who states “ starting pitching logjam” needs to seek immediate help. 

Good article with the correct conclusion. But the author kind of buried the lede: namely, the Twins will never, ever resign either Ryan or Lopez.  They are gone after 2027 with 100% certainty.  And, in Ryan’s case for sure at least, he can’t wait   

Couple that blinding statement of the obvious with the young, transitioning roster projecting to be non competitive in 2026 and a lockout coming in 2027, that means their two years left of control (and expensive control at that) is really just one year of anticipated futility.

So, sadly yes, the author is correct. Ryan and Lopez must be traded. It’s the smart move for sure.

However, in order to really maximize the return on those trades likely to be for young, cheap, projectable talent, then the 2nd derivative decision to replace Rocco must also be made; otherwise, a good portion of the value from the trades will be wasted. 

54 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

The Twins are a very poor fielding team. We saw the limited range of their infielders on display last night in a blowout to San Diego. Teams can live with one or two below average fielders but it is a nightmare for pitchers when most of the gloves are deficient. Improvements are needed.

I agree with this, especially with a young pitching staff. Isaiah Kiner-Falefa is apparently on waivers and would be an upgrade on Ryan Fitzgerald.

It is so disappointing that we have reached a point where we are trying to justify dumping our top two starting pitchers.   It needs to be discussed because the owners are NOW unwilling to spend enough to put a quality product on the field.  I emphasized the word NOW, because I believe the Pohlads spent reasonably over the past few years, even if some of the spending (Donaldson and to a lesser extent Correa) didn’t pan out. 

3 hours ago, Eric Blonigen said:

If the front office tenders a contract to all arbitration-eligible players and retains everyone under team control for next season, the projected salaries work out to around $95 million. That sure doesn’t give Derek Falvey and Jeremy Zoll much to work with, despite some obvious needs. Lopez and Ryan, between them, figure to eat up about 30% of that theoretical, self-imposed payroll limit. Eliminating $30 million from the books will allow for some interesting pickups to at least be possible.

Interesting, but almost certainly less valuable than keeping Ryan and Lopez.