A Big, Creative Cubs-Twins Trade That Just Might Work for Both Teams

[Matthew Trueblood]

Can I interest you in a trade that would bolster the Cubs' rotation by drawing from the Twins' bullpen, and upgrade the Twins' big-league outfield while also giving them payroll flexibility?Can I interest you in a trade that would bolster the Cubs' rotation by drawing from the Twins' bullpen, and upgrade the Twins' big-league outfield while also giving them payroll flexibility?

The first thing you need to know about this potential trade is that it's just a sketch, meant to bring light to a couple of more important issues affecting each team. While I would find this specific trade proposal compelling, it's unlikely that either side would actually pull the trigger on it, and that itself is part of the story.

The second thing you need to know is that Griffin Jax wants to be a starting pitcher again, after spending the last two seasons becoming increasingly dominant at the back end of the Minnesota Twins bullpen. The third thing you need to know is that Kevin Alcántara is blocked in Chicago and in need of an outlet to the big leagues. Let's stop counting, now, but here's some other vital information about these two teams and their fit on a potential trade this winter:

• The Twins continue to face self-inflicted, self-destructive payroll constraints, making it functionally impossible for them to keep both Christian Vázquez and Ryan Jeffers, whom they've deployed in an unprecedentedly even timeshare over the last two seasons but who will cost roughly $15 million as a duo in 2025.
• The Cubs enter the offseason with money to spend on a big bat somewhere in their lineup, but they also need to get creative about improving the front end of their starting rotation. Specifically, they suffer from a lack of sheer velocity and overall stuff from their starters, and the problem runs much deeper than Kyle Hendricks.
• Chicago helped Miguel Amaya unlock his offensive upside last season, but he's a subpar defender behind the plate, and the Cubs front office is unlikely to accept below-average work from that position--arguably the most important on the diamond for run prevention, other than pitcher.

Ok, enough throat-clearing. Let's lay out the trade I think would help both of these teams quite a bit, and then expand on the reasons why I think so.

Cubs Get:

• Griffin Jax, RHP: Will turn 30 years old next month. Three years of team control remaining. MLB Trade Rumors projected arbitration earnings for 2025: $2.6 million.
• Christian Vázquez, Catcher: 34 years old. Entering final season of three-year, $30-million deal. Will make $10 million in 2025.

Twins Get: 

• Kevin Alcántara, OF: 22 years old. No. 27 overall prospect in baseball, according to FanGraphs. Already on 40-man roster, but can be optioned for one more season. Got a cup of coffee to close this season.
• Brody McCullough, RHP: 24 years old. No. 13 prospect in Cubs system, according to FanGraphs. Has made only a very brief appearance at Double A, but also doesn't need to be added to 40-man roster for protection from Rule 5 Draft until after 2025.

This trade would clear as much as $13 million in expected salary for the 2025 Twins, and it would immediately fill a critical role for them. Alcántara is a right-handed hitter who's essentially ready for the majors, and is a plus defensive center fielder. He's not currently ready to be an average-plus hitter in the big leagues, but he has All-Star upside and six years of team control left. He would be the fallback plan for Byron Buxton in center field, a platoon partner for both Trevor Larnach and Matt Wallner in the corners, and an important step toward making the brutally slow, unathletic Twins a more dynamic team. He's a premium piece, despite his lack of offensive refinement.

McCullough is a throw-in, but an interesting one. Knee surgery ended his 2023 season, and after a late start, his 2024 season had an abrupt, premature end with another injury. When he's been on the mound, though, the 2022 draftee has been very impressive, and he could fall in line with the rest of the flowing Twins pitching pipeline, if he can just get healthy enough to benefit from the team's superb pitching development system.

That's what the Twins stand to gain: a role player with humongous upside and flexible team control, a 40-man roster spot to play with, and some serious spending power. For the Cubs, it's a much more present-focused move, but no less variable. The key to this proposal is that Jax wouldn't come in as a prospective relief ace for next year's team, alongside Porter Hodge. Instead, he'd convert back to the starting rotation, taking with him much of the velocity he gained when he first moved from that unit to the bullpen in 2022. That's because that bump isn't all about his compressed workload since becoming a reliever. He's also made major mechanical improvements over that span. Chris Langin, the director of pitching for Driveline, laid out the case for Jax as a starter earlier this year, in a compelling YouTube video:

Jax is already 30, but his arm isn't. Because his service in the Air Force kept him away from the game for stretches throughout his ascent through the minors, and because of the move to the pen upon reaching the big leagues, he's thrown fewer than 600 total professional innings--despite not having notable injury problems at any point. Even if you bake in his collegiate work, he's thrown fewer than 1,000 innings of competitive baseball through the end of his 20s.

That doesn't mean Jax will be good until he's 40, but for the three seasons of team control he has left, there's good reason to hope he could be the next Garrett Crochet, Reynaldo López, or Seth Lugo. He throws five different pitches, including both a sweeper and a changeup that can be devastating. Even if his fastball shrinks back from sitting 97 and touching 99 to sitting 95 and touching 97, he has the profile of a starter with elite upside.

In this scenario, the Cubs would give up one of their top prospects, but they'd do it with the idea that they can slot Jax in alongside Justin Steele, Shota Imanaga, Jameson Taillon and Javier Assad in a fully-stocked, top-tier rotation for the next two or three years. There would be injuries and failures, but Jordan Wicks, Cade Horton, Ben Brown, and Brandon Birdsell would be available to backfill when those breaches took place.

The team would also solve its catching conundrum, because Vázquez is the perfect complement to Amaya. Since Amaya is still making the league-minimum salary, he and Vázquez would represent a reasonable investment in the position, and Vázquez is a good enough all-around defender--good framer, fine thrower, excellent handler of pitchers both in terms of game-planning and in terms of managing difficult innings or outings--to justify more playing time than a true scrap-heap pickup like this year's Christian Bethancourt and Tomás Nido experiments could. His contract has negative value, especially to the cash-strapped Twins, but the Cubs could take it on easily. Unlike the Twins, they can win without efficiently spending every remaining dime.

The Twins could just keep Jax, but they don't need him as a starter, and therefore, they don't need to take the risks that still exist if he does try to move back into that role. He could anchor their bullpen and they could trade Jhoan Durán, who actually projects to make anywhere from $1 million to $1.5 million more than Jax, but Durán's diminished velocity this year will have teams asking careful questions before turning over top talent for him.

Nor will any team trade as much for a pure reliever, like Durán, as they would for a player they would view as a starter. If you doubt this, note the surprise that met the deals signed by López, Jordan Hicks, and Lugo last winter. Those free agents had been considered relievers, so when they signed for guaranteed amounts ranging from $30 million to $45 million, fans were briefly shocked--until each team announced their intentions to move those players into starting roles. Now, two of those deals look like bargains.

The Cubs could shop Alcántara for starters who have already proved their ability to stay healthy and succeed in that role. Jax hasn't yet done that, which is why he should be available for a prospect package starting with Alcántara, rather than Matt Shaw. However, this move is perfect for them, because it allows them to leverage their wealth advantage without plunging into free agency and locking into a long-term deal. Thought they would receive Vázquez, taking on his salary would effectively be a benefit to the Twins, like throwing in another prospect alongside Alcántara and McCullough.

Each side would be accepting significant risk, because that deal is a loser for the Cubs if Jax doesn't make it as a starter, and it's a loser for the Twins if Alcántara doesn't figure out how to lift the ball and/or make more consistent contact. Each side also faces difficult constraints and/or substantial risks associated with inaction, too, though. The Cubs don't have the available playing time to give all their intriguing position players enough run to prove themselves, and they need to win now, not wait around. The Twins need to clear Vázquez's salary so that they can address other needs on their roster, and they need to turn away from the plodding, pull-and-lift, defensively limited player profile they've clung to for the last few years.

Again, I really like this framework, but it's only an outline. The idea is to illustrate the creative options each side needs to ready themselves to pursue this winter, and the way their respective needs and surpluses might overlap. It's not designed to be a done deal, as-is. I'm posting this piece at both North Side Baseball and Twins Daily, in a rare bit of cross-posting to get both of our communities talking. If you don't think your side comes out well enough in this trade, you might be right--but check out the other version of the article, where you might see fans of the other team saying the same thing.

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[Craig Arko]

Some of the fetishes the writers for this site entertain never fail to amaze.

[Mark G]

I just want to make sure I have this.  We give up what is arguably our best bullpen option and arguably our best defensive catcher for...........well, their 13th and 27th best prospects in their farm system.  And this is going to make us better.......how?  

[dxpavelka]

You might as well throw in Emanuel Rodriguez cuz the Cubs' likelihood of moving Alcantrara is the same as the Twins moving Rodriguez.  And, sure, move the best reliever on a club with questionable SP.  That makes sense. 

[Blyleven2011]

With Jax's pedigree I think he could go back to starting and be successful  , for that reason the twins should keep him and see for themselves  , yes we need relievers badly  but we also need starting pitchers to , give him ten starts and see if he can be a starter  ...

Look what we gave up for Lopez at the trade deadline and I see this proposal to trade Jax  not in our favor   , I think the notion to trade Jax would be a mistake  , he is definitely  a top 5 relief pitcher in the league  , ið be more inclined to trading Duran  , but here we are after the collapsed 2024 season talking about trading our best two pitchers  in our bullpen ...

Give Jax 10 starts and if he doesn't flourish  , put him back in the bullpen   ...

[Linus]

This would be a move the Twins should make if they are going to rebuild. I assume they are trying to win next year so then this deal makes no sense. 

[h2oface]

27 minutes ago, Mark G said:

I just want to make sure I have this.  We give up what is arguably our best bullpen option and arguably our best defensive catcher for...........well, their 13th and 27th best prospects in their farm system.  And this is going to make us better.......how?  

I really don't care about the trade. A writer is allowed to have fun and write. But I can read, and you might want to re-read a bit.....

"No. 27 overall prospect in baseball, according to FanGraphs."

[Reptevia]

“The Twins need to clear Vázquez's salary so that they can address other needs on their roster, and they need to turn away from the plodding, pull-and-lift, defensively limited player profile they've clung to for the last few years.”  While both of these things are true, I don’t see the Twin’s doing the second one.   I doubt they do the first one. 

[Mark G]

7 minutes ago, h2oface said:

I really don't care about the trade. A writer is allowed to have fun and write. But I can read, and you might want to re-read a bit.....

"No. 27 overall prospect in baseball, according to FanGraphs."

Good catch!  I missed that one.

But I still don't think proven major leaguers for prospects makes us better in '25.  As Linus said, that is a move you make in a rebuild.  

[Matthew Trueblood]

54 minutes ago, Mark G said:

I just want to make sure I have this.  We give up what is arguably our best bullpen option and arguably our best defensive catcher for...........well, their 13th and 27th best prospects in their farm system.  And this is going to make us better.......how?  

Gotta read carefully! Alcántara is ranked 27th *overall* by FanGraphs--as in, among all prospects in baseball. Not just the Cubs.

[umterp23]

I don't think the Cubs who have money are just going to eat all of Vazquez contract along with just Jax.  So let's throw some more stuff at it.  Matt Shaw to me would be an awesome get.  He was a short stop I college at MD, may alma mater and I got a chance to see him play plenty during his days there.  Think of Brooks Lee but better.  So with that being said, you want to make a splash, throw in Lee or Julien into the trade, along with a top 20 prospect and see what you can do there.  

Now do we really believe that ownership group is going to take $13MM and invest in more broken pitchers to come our way and now another catcher to split time?  Seriously doubt it.  

2 MLB players for 2 prospects and we don't have to eat some of Vazquez contract, Cubs will laugh at Falvey and say thanks but no thanks.

[Doctor Gast]

You will trade away a potential SP in Jax for RP prices? Doesn't make sense, Cubs won't pay SP prices.

I can't see destroying our catching position by paying down Vazquez's salary in a trade, just to nullify a $10M mistake.

We are loaded in good prospects in the OF & SP. It's not solving any problems only creating new ones.

[TopGunn#22]

Interesting article.  It's always fun to propose and discuss possible trades.  That said, I'm 100% in the "No Way I'm Making a Trade Like This" camp.  EVERY major league baseball team needs starting pitching.  EVERY. SINGLE. ONE.  You can't just cavalierly say the Twins don't need Jax in the rotation.

Plus, Jax is our most consistent pitcher.  I'm not parting with him in virtually any circumstance.  So let's say the Twins give Jax a chance at starting like the Royals did with Seth Lugo and the Braves did with Reynaldo Lopez.  Here's your rotation:

Lopez, Ryan, Jax, Ober, (Festa, SWR, Matthews).  That's pretty darn solid.  And teams that get solid starting pitching are always "in the game."  

This would create a problem in the bullpen.  You've just taken your most reliable pitcher and put him in your rotation.  I will point out that it's much easier to add bullpen arms than rotation arms, especially when your ownership group is more concerned with profitability than on field success.  

I also do not think it's worth giving up Jax for an outfielder (even though he hits right-handed) when you've got a host of OF prospects getting closer to the major leagues led by Emmanuel Rodriguez and Walker Jenkins.   We're talking about a PLATOON option for our OF.  Not a fulltime player.  For our most consistent pitcher who has the potential upside of being an All Star caliber pitcher.

And if you doubt that Jax has that potential, simply look at what Lopez and Lugo accomplished this past season.  Neither of them has had the success out of the BP that Jax has (Lugo is close).  

Find a better RH outfield bat than Margot this time.  Give Jax a shot at the rotation.  Fill in the BP with quality options.  

[Tk33]

Without overthinking to justify the move, I feel it boils down to Jax and eating cash for a top prospect and a good prospect.  Vazquez is sub-replacement at this point.  A lot of other ways for the Cubs to shore up catching without giving up much.  No way the Cubs would be in, despite the potential upside on Jax.

[1985Fan]

This would work if dealing from positions of strength or surplus. I don’t think the farm system has a catcher ready to replace Vasquez, unless they think Camargo is ready to step up. 
I also don’t think there is enough depth in the system to replace Jax., thus creating a hole in the bullpen. If they absolutely have to unload Vasquez salary, they’re going have to attach a prospect and leave the MLB roster intact to be competitive next year. That type of trade is going to hurt, but won’t leave a hole in the roster. 
The supposed surplus they have now is pitching prospects. To get rid of Vasquez, they’ll probably have to attach one of those prospects. Going to be painful, but that is the reality. 

[Trov]

Pretty sure the Cubs could get a better deal than this.  Really they would be getting a guy that might start again, but may fail at that.  He is nearing FA and aging.  Yes, his arm may not be as spent as normal pitcher, but history has shown drop off of all players after 30.  They also will take on final year of a non-factor at plate but good defending catcher, normally would be league min guy. They will give up a MLB ready talent with years of control.  He may not be their top OF prospect but if he is a good defender in CF and can hit close to what he has done in AAA he will fetch better than that in a deal. 

I also do not know how much better it makes us next year.  It may help years to come, but we have seen some rookies play very well, and not so much.  We have also seen them fall off the face of the earth their second years sometime. 

[Twins GFP]

This is a salary dump trade done by a team looking to rebuild.  It would be very sad to see the Twins do this.

With all this talk of how "unwieldly" the Twins catching situation is, I think the balance has been decent, with production and health.

Does anyone know where the Twins (as a group) rank regarding overall catching stats by team?  I would think they were top ten in the major categories.  Doesn't sound like a great reason to break them up yet...   

[C-Gangster]

I like the idea but i just dont like the idea of trading the guy who held our struggling bullpen together.

[specialiststeve]

Let the mock trades begin!!

[DJL44]

15 minutes ago, Tk33 said:

Without overthinking to justify the move, I feel it boils down to Jax and eating cash for a top prospect and a good prospect.  Vazquez is sub-replacement at this point.  A lot of other ways for the Cubs to shore up catching without giving up much.  No way the Cubs would be in, despite the potential upside on Jax.

I agree that this trade as proposed is weighted too heavily toward the Twins. If a team can trade a reliever for a top 30 prospect they should do that every time (think how irritated you would be if the Twins traded Emmanuel Rodriguez for a relief pitcher). Then you subtract the negative value of Vazquez and add another good pitching prospect for the Twins. If they can get the Cubs to offer this much they should agree quickly.

[terrydactyls]

I have long wanted to see Alcantara in a Twins uniform.  But not this one.

[2wins87]

This trade "works" for the Twins if you are resigned to rebuilding.

I don't want to get too deep into specific players in hypothetical trades, but as we've seen this year, even top prospects typically have a rough adjustment period at some point.  Another young guy bouncing between St Paul and Minneapolis trying to figure things out is not really what the Twins need.  They have a few of those, and Alcantara hasn't exactly torn the cover off the ball in the high minors either.  He's hit pretty well, but a 120ish OPS+ with a 25-30% K rate in AA/AAA probably projects for basically an average-ish hitter in the majors long-term and probably worse in the short term.

If payroll is constant from this year, it's not really much fun contemplating this offseason.  Falvey & co will figure something out, but a bunch of moves like this couldn't be called anything other than a rebuild.  I hope for better, though I honestly don't know what I'd do already bumping up against their payroll restriction with holes still unfilled.  If Falvey manages to put together a team that looks better on paper next year it might be a minor miracle.

 

[2wins87]

26 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

This is a salary dump trade done by a team looking to rebuild.  It would be very sad to see the Twins do this.

With all this talk of how "unwieldly" the Twins catching situation is, I think the balance has been decent, with production and health.

Does anyone know where the Twins (as a group) rank regarding overall catching stats by team?  I would think they were top ten in the major categories.  Doesn't sound like a great reason to break them up yet...   

15th of 30 in fWar this year and 9th last year.  Not including any value Jeffers or Vazquez might have provided elsewhere (basically DH).

The catching tandem has been pretty solid overall.

[farmerguychris]

It looks like I'm in the minority here, but I like it.  Need to get rid of Vazquez's salary if we want to improve any other position.  Jax isn't likley to get any better than he is now.  Would be nice to get a 4th OF who can cover CF.  I see now way we are going to improve unless we trade away players we like - like Jax.  

[DocBauer]

I understand the framework of the idea. It's not crazy. But not only does moving Jax take away the Twins #1-2 pen arm, but if the Cubs really want to move Alcantara and gain talent, do they really want a 30yo arm that failed previously as a starter? Two months in to the season he's suddenly back in their pen again and then what?

Wouldn't Vazquez, Paddack, and someone like Morris, Ryan, or Lewis plus something like #5M in cash for Alcantara and player X make more sense for both sides? The Twins save $7M to be spent elsewhere, they get a really talented RH 4th OF who hasn't quite put it all together yet, a prospect, and the Cubs get a veteran arm with some upside who can move to the pen later if needed, and one of the Twins top 5-ish pitching prospects ready now, or by mid season, plus the veteran, defense first catcher they need.

That sounds more balanced and realistic to me. 

[bean5302]

 

1 hour ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

This is a salary dump trade done by a team looking to rebuild.  It would be very sad to see the Twins do this.

With all this talk of how "unwieldly" the Twins catching situation is, I think the balance has been decent, with production and health.

Does anyone know where the Twins (as a group) rank regarding overall catching stats by team?  I would think they were top ten in the major categories.  Doesn't sound like a great reason to break them up yet...   

Not sure what your "major categories" are. The major categories I looked up have the Twins at or below 15th.

[TheLeviathan]

I appreciate the thought behind this, but if the Twins are targeting talent I'd prefer it be somewhere other than OF.

I do like Alcantera though and people should be more open to the idea of flipping a bullpen arm for an every-day (possible) superstar player.

[USAFChief]

If the goal is to improve the 2025 Twins, this is a horrible idea. 

 

BTW, Alcantara isn't anywhere near the 27th rated prospect except on Fangraphs.

Top 100 is more accurate. 

And finding a good defensive centerfielder who can't hit is child's play. Shouldn't cost you your best best bullpen piece.

[jmlease1]

Must be a reasonable trade, people are coming out saying it's a bad deal for both sides.

[jjswol]

Not one of your better ideas, sorry.