Can the Twins Afford to Give Up on Alex Kirilloff?

[Nick Nelson]

Facing another major payroll crunch in the offseason and needing to infuse the 2025 roster with whatever offensive upside they can, it won't be all that easy for the Twins to move on from Alex Kirilloff, even if there are plenty of sound arguments for doing so.

Image courtesy of Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

Let's begin by acknowledging the obvious: There are plenty of reasons for the Twins to want be ready to part ways with Alex Kirilloff. Turning 27 this offseason, he's never come close to playing a full major-league season, and this past one was his worst. 

Trying to rebound from a third consecutive offseason surgery, Kirilloff was brought along slowly in spring training, but he was on the Opening Day roster and played plenty in the early going. In the first half of April, he actually played well, slashing .291/.344/.546 through 17 games as one of the lone positive contributors on offense. He was batting third or fourth in the lineup almost daily. That's the player we've been wanting to see.

From there it was all downhill. Kirilloff slashed .154/.231/.298 in the next 40 games, looking progressively less capable at the plate up until the front office decided to option him to Triple-A in mid-June. Only at that point did the first baseman reveal he'd been dealing with a back injury, compelling the Twins to reverse their option and instead place him on the injured list, where he'd remain for the rest of the year.

The team was not happy, that much was clear. And why would they be? You're not going to hold it against a guy for getting hurt--with Kirilloff's history, empathy would be the most valid inclination--but failing to disclose this fact while your play and the team suffers for it ... That's going to erode some goodwill.

"The communication on that, if that was something that was worsening and he was unable to play, does need to be better and something he needs to be able to bring up and say,” manager Rocco Baldelli said at the time. “He had the opportunity to do it. Hopefully, we can do that better next time.”

The $1.8 million question is: Will there a be a next time? Or will the Twins take the opportunity this offseason to sever ties with the last top draft pick of the Terry Ryan regime? It would be simple enough to do so; Kirilloff is eligible for arbitration, so the front office will face a decision to actively tender him a contract or not. 

MLB Trade Rumors just released their projected arbitration salaries for 2025, and they've got Kirilloff pegged at $1.8 million, an understandably modest raise over his $1.35 million salary in 2024. He's no longer a minimum-salary player, but Kirilloff isn't far off. And as rough as his latest campaign was from a variety of perspectives, I think the Twins will find it extremely difficult to discard his ability and potential at that price tag.

 

Consider this: The Twins signed a 38-year-old Carlos Santana for $5.25 million this year. He was far beyond what most people expected, and still finished with a 109 OPS+ that was in the range of average. Kirilloff has a career OPS+ of 99, despite all the tribulations he's experienced since reaching the majors. In 2023 he set a career high with 88 games played and posted a 116 OPS+, which is better than any mark Santana has posted in the past five years. 

Ask yourself, realistically, would you rather bring back a 39-year-old Santana over a 27-year-old Kirilloff at about three times the cost? Especially when you know how else that money could be used, in terms of adding a badly-needed reliever or bench piece? Recency bias might say yes, but the 2025 season will be a different story. In terms of pure hitting ability, I don't think there's any argument to be made that Santana at 39 is better than Kirilloff at 27. Santana is better defensively, without question, but that only goes so far at first base.

Kirilloff has been through a lot. Opportunities to watch him play his game uninhibited have been few and far between over the past few seasons. But it's important not to lose sight of his talent. This is the same guy whose standout bat once earned him a ranking as a top-10 prospect in baseball, and persuaded the Twins to call him up directly from the alternate site for a postseason debut in 2020. We've seen flashes of his special contact/power combination at times, including on occasion this past season. 

 

I wouldn't say my confidence level in Kirilloff is super high at this moment, and that's probably true of the Twins as well, but it behooves them to give him another chance, given their circumstances. You're not going to be able to find a first baseman with his offensive upside on the open market and the Twins are going to need upside in the lineup where they can get it. 

The caveat here, I guess, is that they might be convinced the injuries are too much for Kirilloff to overcome. He underwent multiple wrist surgeries before last year hurting his shoulder and requiring surgery on that. Now he's got this back issue which seems very serious; he was down for almost three months before attempting a comeback in early September, experiencing a "flare-up" of the back soreness and being shut down for the rest of the season.

Maybe the Twins just think Kirilloff's body is no longer up to the task. If so, that'd be a reasonable motivator to move on and pocket the nearly $2 million he'd earn. But they'd be better be very sure of it if that's the case, because Kirilloff finally finding his stride elsewhere next year while the Twins search for production at first base or DH would be a bitter pill to swallow. 

Let's hope sour grapes don't lead to a bad decision.

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[Patzky]

There is no right answer here. :(

[Post-Concussive Blues]

Gotta let it ride one more year

[Craig Arko]

I guess we’ll find out.

[DJL44]

I don't have any hope that he will somehow become a good defender at LF or 1B so it's really about his bat. Can he hit the ball well enough to play every day or is he Randy Bush?

[Fatbat]

At 1.8M AK will be a bargain if he is healthy and productive. I know. Gigantic IF. 

[Western SD Fan]

This may all come down to what Santana is willing to take to resign.  If it is reasonable, maybe you resign Santana with the possibility to trade him during the year for some pitching help.  Even if Kirilloff comes back injured or not playable, you have Miranda, Julien, and likely Castro coming back to fill that spot.  I'm assuming your infield will be Miranda (Santana and/or Kirilloff ), Julien (Lee), Correa, and Lewis with Castro filling in as the super utility man that he should be and not a regular starter.  I would also like to see Lee start in St. Paul to get his confidence back up before coming back to the MLB club unless he really shows improvement in spring training that they can't keep him off the roster.

[CRF]

Can they afford to pay the electric bill on Target Field?

[Mike Sixel]

I'm not re-signing Santana, but I'm not sure how I feel about AK and his health. They already have Buxton and CC, how many always hurt guys can a cheap team afford to try to carry? 

[LastOnePicked]

20 minutes ago, CRF said:

Can they afford to pay the electric bill on Target Field?

Target Field hasn't had any electricity for the past two months, so I think they're okay.

[thelanges5]

Good article Nick. This season has raised a lot of questions about the long-term outlook for a lot of our young guys. 

Kirilloff, Miranda, Julien, Lewis 

[stringer bell]

Santana is a rare one in that he always plays and does some damage, particularly against left handed pitching. Yes, his defense is good (better than any in-house option), but the Twins need more offense particularly against right handers. Kirilloff can get one more chance, but it’s almost certainly his last with the Twins. I still think he can be a good to great hitter, but the sand is coming through the hourglass. 

[Vanimal46]

Kirilloff is a clear non-tender IMO. He's too fragile and this team can not afford more injury prone players on the 40 man. 

[Mike Sixel]

5 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

Kirilloff is a clear non-tender IMO. He's too fragile and this team can not afford more injury prone players on the 40 man. 

That was my first thought....

[FlyingFinn]

For $1.8 million you don't get rid of him unless you're sure he's never going to be good, when you don't have a clear first baseman. Last chance though, as others have said.

[RpR]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'm not re-signing Santana, but I'm not sure how I feel about AK and his health. They already have Buxton and CC, how many always hurt guys can a cheap team afford to try to carry? 

If Kirilloff is still around next year, It will Not be at 1st Base.

[cmoss84]

Alex who?

[Vanimal46]

57 minutes ago, FlyingFinn said:

For $1.8 million you don't get rid of him unless you're sure he's never going to be good, when you don't have a clear first baseman. Last chance though, as others have said.

Since 2020, when he has shown he’s actually good? 

[DocBauer]

I never bought in to him being injury prone initially. The TJ surgery he had was early in his career and is over and done. His wrist issue was a genetic issue, not an on the field injury. Complete pass in my mind. Then he hurt his shoulder while diving for a ball. Stinks, but that happens. Again, I can give a pass. But then he hurts his back and hides the injury's severity.

Sorry, but now I'm starting to wonder about being injury prone vs being unlucky.

But despite a financial crunch, I have to believe the Twins can afford $1.8M for a former top prospect, who has flashed when healthy, and who still has an option I believe. 

With his wrist seemingly 100%, what if he really has been unlucky the past 2 seasons? What if he works really hard this offseason to be in great shape and actually BE HEALTHY for 2025? You can't just let that guy go without giving him one more chance can you?

Maybe it will be a $1.8M error. But it's a potential error I think you have to be willing to take. His salary shouldn't have any serious affect on 2025, and the potential he still has is worth that last shot, so I say keep him and see if he can finally reach his potential. 

[Brett]

Since I have an unnatural attraction to portfolio risk, I would evaluate AK as part of the whole roster rather than individual performance. In my assessment, the Twins are already over leveraged on players with injury histories (and accompanying future injury risk). That makes me a “no” on retaining him.

As a fan, I hated typing all that. I really wish the best for Alex.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

AK might be the most difficult player that the Twins have to evaluate.  On one hand, when healthy, he has shown flashes of excellence that would make him extremely valuable.  On the other, he's hurt. . . a lot and some of these injuries are likely to sap some of that potential away.  Wrist. . . is it truly behind him and can he hit the ball as well/as hard?  Shoulder. . . same story.  Back. . . . yikes! That's the scariest one yet.  I think the odds of him becoming the guy he looked like he could become a few years back are really slim and if you can only keep two of AK, Julien, and Miranda, I think AK is the one that needs to go.  Having two guys to evaluate at first base (plus maybe Severino) gives them a better chance at a fair shake than adding another player to the mix. I don't love it, but I think he gets DFA'd or used as a throw in on a trade. 

[BH67]

Let's see who the new hitting coach is first. That may make a considerable difference, and not just with Alex.

[shabbos1]

42 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

I never bought in to him being injury prone initially. The TJ surgery he had was early in his career and is over and done. His wrist issue was a genetic issue, not an on the field injury.

He initially sprained his wrist sliding head-first into second base.

https://twinsdaily.com/news-rumors/minnesota-twins/alex-kirilloff-wrist-injury-swing/

 

[TheLeviathan]

A hitter who can never keep his wrists healthy seems like a bad bet.

Then again....1.8M and a shot at 1B may be the kind of gamble this team will have to make next year.

[mnfireman]

Maybe the question should be posed as such: do you want AK hurting the team for 162 games (as a Twin) or 7 games (as an opponent, 13 if he signs within the division)?

Maybe he's recovered enough to play a full season, probably not. However, his status directly affects the teams off-season plans at multiple positions. Miranda is the only returning 1B, but Julien (let's hope not) has been mentioned as an option there. In the OF, Wallner and Larnach have emerged as the corner favorites, with no real other internal options, though Kiersey is a possibility despite the team not giving him any opportunities this season. 

A decision needs to be made early in the off-season so the team can fill out the roster accordingly, no dragging it out until March.

[Kevin Sheehan]

He "hid" his injury until he was getting optioned. There has to be trust in the employees. To me it's inexcusable.  On top of that the message to all players needs to change. Make an example of him and release him

[Schmoeman5]

5 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'm not re-signing Santana, but I'm not sure how I feel about AK and his health. They already have Buxton and CC, how many always hurt guys can a cheap team afford to try to carry? 

26

[Schmoeman5]

3 hours ago, cmoss84 said:

Alex who?

Topa? Or is it DeSclafani?

[bean5302]

Alex Kirilloff is a non-tender for sure. If the Twins want him back, they can just be the first to offer him a MiLB contract because he's not going to get an MLB offer.

[mikelink45]

I look at Rooker as a precautionary example. Kiriloff still has potential.  What does it hurt to hold on for another year?