Can the Twins Afford to Give Up on Alex Kirilloff?

Let's begin by acknowledging the obvious: There are plenty of reasons for the Twins to want be ready to part ways with Alex Kirilloff. Turning 27 this offseason, he's never come close to playing a full major-league season, and this past one was his worst. 

Trying to rebound from a third consecutive offseason surgery, Kirilloff was brought along slowly in spring training, but he was on the Opening Day roster and played plenty in the early going. In the first half of April, he actually played well, slashing .291/.344/.546 through 17 games as one of the lone positive contributors on offense. He was batting third or fourth in the lineup almost daily. That's the player we've been wanting to see.

From there it was all downhill. Kirilloff slashed .154/.231/.298 in the next 40 games, looking progressively less capable at the plate up until the front office decided to option him to Triple-A in mid-June. Only at that point did the first baseman reveal he'd been dealing with a back injury, compelling the Twins to reverse their option and instead place him on the injured list, where he'd remain for the rest of the year.

The team was not happy, that much was clear. And why would they be? You're not going to hold it against a guy for getting hurt--with Kirilloff's history, empathy would be the most valid inclination--but failing to disclose this fact while your play and the team suffers for it ... That's going to erode some goodwill.

"The communication on that, if that was something that was worsening and he was unable to play, does need to be better and something he needs to be able to bring up and say,” manager Rocco Baldelli said at the time. “He had the opportunity to do it. Hopefully, we can do that better next time.”

The $1.8 million question is: Will there a be a next time? Or will the Twins take the opportunity this offseason to sever ties with the last top draft pick of the Terry Ryan regime? It would be simple enough to do so; Kirilloff is eligible for arbitration, so the front office will face a decision to actively tender him a contract or not. 

MLB Trade Rumors just released their projected arbitration salaries for 2025, and they've got Kirilloff pegged at $1.8 million, an understandably modest raise over his $1.35 million salary in 2024. He's no longer a minimum-salary player, but Kirilloff isn't far off. And as rough as his latest campaign was from a variety of perspectives, I think the Twins will find it extremely difficult to discard his ability and potential at that price tag.

Consider this: The Twins signed a 38-year-old Carlos Santana for $5.25 million this year. He was far beyond what most people expected, and still finished with a 109 OPS+ that was in the range of average. Kirilloff has a career OPS+ of 99, despite all the tribulations he's experienced since reaching the majors. In 2023 he set a career high with 88 games played and posted a 116 OPS+, which is better than any mark Santana has posted in the past five years. 

Ask yourself, realistically, would you rather bring back a 39-year-old Santana over a 27-year-old Kirilloff at about three times the cost? Especially when you know how else that money could be used, in terms of adding a badly-needed reliever or bench piece? Recency bias might say yes, but the 2025 season will be a different story. In terms of pure hitting ability, I don't think there's any argument to be made that Santana at 39 is better than Kirilloff at 27. Santana is better defensively, without question, but that only goes so far at first base.

Kirilloff has been through a lot. Opportunities to watch him play his game uninhibited have been few and far between over the past few seasons. But it's important not to lose sight of his talent. This is the same guy whose standout bat once earned him a ranking as a top-10 prospect in baseball, and persuaded the Twins to call him up directly from the alternate site for a postseason debut in 2020. We've seen flashes of his special contact/power combination at times, including on occasion this past season. 

I wouldn't say my confidence level in Kirilloff is super high at this moment, and that's probably true of the Twins as well, but it behooves them to give him another chance, given their circumstances. You're not going to be able to find a first baseman with his offensive upside on the open market and the Twins are going to need upside in the lineup where they can get it. 

The caveat here, I guess, is that they might be convinced the injuries are too much for Kirilloff to overcome. He underwent multiple wrist surgeries before last year hurting his shoulder and requiring surgery on that. Now he's got this back issue which seems very serious; he was down for almost three months before attempting a comeback in early September, experiencing a "flare-up" of the back soreness and being shut down for the rest of the season.

Maybe the Twins just think Kirilloff's body is no longer up to the task. If so, that'd be a reasonable motivator to move on and pocket the nearly $2 million he'd earn. But they'd be better be very sure of it if that's the case, because Kirilloff finally finding his stride elsewhere next year while the Twins search for production at first base or DH would be a bitter pill to swallow. 

Let's hope sour grapes don't lead to a bad decision.