Why the Minnesota Twins Will Overtake the Cleveland Guardians in the Second Half

[Nick Nelson]

The Minnesota Twins trail the Cleveland Guardians by 4 ½ games at the All-Star break. Overcoming the formidable division leaders in the second half will be no easy task, but here's why the Twins are capable of making it happen--and will.

Image courtesy of Matt Marton, David Richard-USA TODAY Sports

The 2024 AL Central race is giving vibes of the 2006 season. That year, the Twins went on a blistering run to reach 96 wins after a slow start, but all summer long, they struggled to gain ground on the division-leading Tigers, who were playing at a nearly 100-win pace themselves.

One of the most unforgettable, microcosmic stretches came from Jun. 8 through Jun. 30 that year, during which the Twins won 18 of 20... and picked up exactly half of a game in the standings. Throughout July and into August, Minnesota kept rattling off wins and taking series, but they just couldn't put much of a dent in their division deficit, which fluctuated between nine and 12 games for most of the season.

That held true, anyway, until the middle of August, when the Tigers finally started to relent. Detroit got as high as 40 games above .500 at the peak of their prowess -- for a good while, they were on pace for 110 wins, three years after losing 119 games -- but they began hurtling back to Earth during the stretch run. Minnesota capitalized. 

In their final 50 games, Detroit went 19-31, while the Twins went 30-20 to overcome a double-digit deficit and win the division on the final day. For the younger crowd that wasn't around to witness it, let me tell you: it was wild. 

This year, I believe history will repeat itself in the Central. It might not play out in such dramatic fashion, although that is no given. The bottom line is that Minnesota is the better team, and over the course of a long MLB season, the best team tends to come out on top.

Let's break down three reasons I feel confident in this proclamation.

Cleveland is good. They're not THAT good.
I'm definitely not saying the Guardians aren't a good team. They have the best record in the American League; that's obviously nothing to scoff at. But when you investigate their success through any kind of deeper statistical lens, it becomes clear that fortune has strongly bent in their favor. A project called the MLB Deserve-to-Win-O-Meter, which attempts "to determine a team's 'luck' factor by how their hits were dispersed in a game vs many simulations," while also accounting for launch angle, exit velocity, and ballpark, recently pegged Cleveland as the luckiest team in baseball, by a pretty vast margin.

 

The Guardians rank 10th in the majors in scoring, but are 23rd in xwOBA. Their hitters rank 10th in the majors in home runs, but rank 30th out of 30 teams in average home run distance. Their pitchers are eighth in ERA, but 15th in FIP. Their staff has the eighth-lowest BABIP in the majors and the second-highest strand rate.

I'm not saying any of these numbers change what has happened. The wins are baked in, and the Guardians deserve credit for timely hitting and clutch pitching. But the underlying metrics do paint a different picture than the surface-level representations of Cleveland's true quality and expectations going forward. The Twins, conversely, have been luck-neutral at best according to almost any metric, and probably more on the unlucky side.

I don't necessarily expect the Guardians to slump as badly as the 2006 Tigers did down the stretch, but then, the Twins don't need them to, since the division lead is not nearly as large. They simply need Cleveland to get into a prolonged stretch of playing .500 ball, and maybe that has already begun; the Guards are 6-7 here in July.

So long as Cleveland keeps coming down from their 100+ win pace, the Twins will catch them. Here's why.

Minnesota has the league's deepest and most unrelenting lineup.
Over the course of this season, Minnesota's offense has evolved into the league's best. They've removed underperformers (Alex Kirilloff, Edouard Julien), added difference-makers (José Miranda, Brooks Lee), and seen players throughout the lineup perform brilliantly. The players you could've once pointed toward as laggards – Carlos Santana, Byron Buxton, Manuel Margot, even Christian Vázquez – have rounded into improved form, while Trevor Larnach and Willi Castro have reached new levels. At some point (hopefully soon), Royce Lewis will be back. 

And then at the heart of it all, you've got Carlos Correa, the team MVP and its driving force. He's an All-Star and he's been one of the most impactful players in the American League, offering leadership that goes beyond the field. Although the past weekend's plantar fasciitis diagnosis is alarming, word is that it's less serious than a year ago.

In contrast to Cleveland, the underpinning of Minnesota's offensive success is quite sustainable: they consistently make contact and hit the ball hard. The Twins rank eighth among MLB teams in xwOBA for the season, and have been considerably better since their lineup reached its current state. They rank first in the American League in wOBA, wRC+ and position player fWAR over the past two months.

Twins pitching will be good enough to get it done.
Both the Guardians and Twins have dealt with a void atop their rotation this year. Cleveland ace Shane Bieber is out for the season following elbow surgery, while Pablo López has not pitched in a manner befitting a No. 1 starter. One of those things is correctable in the second half, and one isn't.

Turning back to the lens of underlying metrics and expected numbers, everything about López screams "positive regression." His 5.11 ERA is vastly higher than his xERA (3.43) or his xFIP (3.22). He has the lowest strand rate of his career, the highest home-run rate on fly balls, and the second-highest BABIP.

None of this guarantees anything, but they are indicators that López isn't pitching as badly as the numbers suggest. Visually, his stuff looks fine for the most part. We saw last year – especially in the playoffs – what López can be, and at times, he seems very close to unlocking it again. Cleveland, with no Bieber and Triston McKenzie in shambles, just doesn't have a starter with that kind of upside.

That's not to say the Guardians have a bad pitching staff. It will continue to be a strength for them, undoubtedly. It's just a strength I think that the Twins can realistically match or even outshine the rest of the way. They've got the frontline depth with Joe Ryan, who was a borderline All-Star in the first half, and Bailey Ober, who's been their best starter for quite a while now.

In terms of bullpens, these are two of the best in the game. I'm not sure I'd put Minnesota quite at Cleveland's level, but it's close, especially if the Twins get Brock Stewart back after the break and the front office pulls a few strings in August or September. (Late-season relief roles for Louie Varland, David Festa or Zebby Matthews?)

How much does winning the division matter?
To be clear, I expect both of these teams to make the playoffs. It would likely take a mammoth collapse for Cleveland to miss out even on a Wild Card berth. But the difference between a division title and a Wild Card can be the difference between playing at home or on the road--or even the difference between a first-round bye or a precarious best-of-three matchup to reach the ALDS.

Granted, these circumstances don't dictate anything, as 2006 illustrated: Minnesota got swept in the first round by Oakland as division winners, while Detroit reached the World Series. But the playoff setup is much different from back then, with far more incentive to take the division title. 

For the Twins, the key goal over these final 66 games – aside from making sure they hang onto their playoff spot – is to overtake Cleveland and win the Central for a fourth time in six years. This time around, they're really going to have to earn it. I believe they're more than capable.

This is what it's all about folks. It's gonna be a very fun and exciting second half. Strap in.

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[dxpavelka]

Never forget that 90% of the game is half luck.

[Karbo]

I can see them passing Cleveland if they can get and then stay healthy. They have the hitting, but the pitching is going to need to improve a bit.

[Joe A. Preusser]

Awesome article Nick.  Any idea about relative strength of schedule between us and CLE? 

[Whitey333]

I too think the Twins will overtake Cleveland.  But not for all the fancy ways backed by the new wave analytical hodge podge.  I just think the Twins are better than the guardians using the eye test.  The Twins though need Lopez to pitch like he did last year.  

[Heiny]

I'm Mn.  But I would add that a key to the Twins future success would be to start scoring when they have runners in scoring position with less than two outs.  I'm not sure about the statistics on this front, but it seems to be pretty poor in my opinion.

[Linus]

This is a plausible scenario for sure. But there are other plausible scenarios that are a problem like the Twins entering one of their bad streaks and dropping to 7or 8 back with fewer games to go or one of the top three in the rotation getting hurt. It’s gonna be fun. 

[Doctor Wu]

Good article. I agree that Cleveland may not be able to sustain their first half success, plus the Twins are capable of playing better, or at least being able to consistently win games against better opponents. Hopefully, some of our bruised and battered players will come back healthy and productive in the second half. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

I do think, regardless of winning the division or not, having something to play for and legit competition will help prepare Minnesota better for the playoffs compared to a number of years where the Twins basically had the division wrapped up by August 1st. Both of these teams are fun, and I’m hopeful the Twins add a piece or two before the deadline. Baseball is fun this year

[Joe Schmitt]

Re: strength of schedule, Fangraphs breaks down the winning percentage of the remaining opponents as follows:
- Cleveland - .512
- Minnesota - .499
Note that is FG's expected winning percentage, not actual percentage. Cleveland does have more games at home, though.

[Patzky]

52 minutes ago, Joe A. Preusser said:

Awesome article Nick.  Any idea about relative strength of schedule between us and CLE? 

We have an easier schedule if you base it on WL records. On the other hand we will have to sweep Cleveland to win the season series or else we're one game in the hole.

[Trov]

54 minutes ago, Heiny said:

I'm Mn.  But I would add that a key to the Twins future success would be to start scoring when they have runners in scoring position with less than two outs.  I'm not sure about the statistics on this front, but it seems to be pretty poor in my opinion.

Not sure the overall number of that specific question, but the team has one of the best overall offenses in baseball.  Yeah, this weekend they did very poorly with RISP and those will happen, but as a whole the team has done very well scoring runs. 

[Trov]

I think the Twins can catch Cleveland, and really all they have to do is play like they have been and can.  Cleveland is winning on career years from guys that could carry through the year, but also could regress to their career norm.  Twins generally are playing close to their career norms overall.  Cleveland also has been known to fade the second half as well in recent years. 

[mikelink45]

Always fun to speculate, but I am not ready for the cool-aid yet.  

[chinmusic]

As is always the case, injuries (or lack thereof) will be key.

I'm particularly concerned about Correa, as plantar fasciitis is frustratingly persistent, and subject to recurrence. Unfortunately, "less severe" feels as much like wishful thinking, as it does a diagnosis, That said, will hope for as good an outcome as possible.

Post break should be very compelling and exciting, keeping tabs on all the contending teams on a daily basis. So buckle up!

[Karbo]

15 minutes ago, Trov said:

Not sure the overall number of that specific question, but the team has one of the best overall offenses in baseball.  Yeah, this weekend they did very poorly with RISP and those will happen, but as a whole the team has done very well scoring runs. 

No doubt missing 4 of the teams top hitters had an impact.

[JD-TWINS]

TWINS - best record in A.L. since April 22 at 46-27. …….headed in the right direction to catch Cleveland.

The Guardians have some pretty good line-up balance and a couple Stars! Kwan & Ramirez are formidable and will not back up much…….can’t play any better! The 1B & C Naylor bros. help with key hitting. Good up the middle!! I think they’ll figure out a way to improve their staff this month via trade. They have THE BEST record in A.L. and cannot be underestimated.

Buxton is hitting .395 over approximately last 20 games - Miranda went crazy for a week - Lee joined the Club on fire……..going to be regression with these guys and with CC up in the air, Twins have their hands full to keep winning 6 of every 10!

IMO, Kepler - Santana - Castro - Jeffers staying at current levels or above are the key to driving the offense……..gotta keep line-up long and can’t have dead spots in the line-up.

Rotation arm health and ability to handle innings totals will be in question in another 45 days as well………same for all teams.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

I don't hear a fat lady singing...however I am in complete agreement with Nick on this. The remaining strength of schedules look fairly equal, except the Twins will be on the road more. 

[Patzky]

24 minutes ago, Trov said:

Not sure the overall number of that specific question, but the team has one of the best overall offenses in baseball.  Yeah, this weekend they did very poorly with RISP and those will happen, but as a whole the team has done very well scoring runs. 

They were fine until the Fedde game broke them in Chicago. The only way to Fix them IMHO is to sign Fedde.

[Doctor Gast]

I don't put much stock in launch angle & exit velo as any indication of luck. What they attribute as luck is the ability to spray the ball around the field & one who hit the ball hard & the inability to do so is unlucky. Many also attribute luck with winning one-run games. Winning one-run games is due to having hitters who can hit in the clutch (which is an ability) & not strike out.  

What I contribute to CLE success isn't luck but the ability to stick with their youth & not getting sucked into the "all or nothing" mentality, even though they've had rotten luck with injuries to their rotation. All that said, I still believe that MN has a good chance to pass up CLE. #1 IMO we have better players #2 we ditched the "all or nothing" approach, We put Larnach, Wallner & Julien in AAA to reset. Larnach started last year so he's the 1st back doing well, now Wallner & soon Julien. Hopefully, they don't regress to old habits. 

It also depends on the development of our young players, Unlike CLE, injuries to MN were a good thing because it opened up more opportunities & playing time to Castro, Miranda, SWR & Lee to shine, Yet Martin, Kiriloff, Keirsey & Varland need more consistent playing time in the MLB.

We have been very fortunate not having any injuries connected to our catching duo or the top of our rotation which would be disastrous. Our good fortune needs to continue there. & I see our rotation will only improve. All of our injuries to our core players have been minor & should be in good shape very soon.

What could also influence the race is the trade deadline. If CLE picks up a decent SP & we do nothing, CLE might hold on. If MN fills their need at SP & LHRP then we can go a long way.

[Doctor Gast]

15 minutes ago, chinmusic said:

As is always the case, injuries (or lack thereof) will be key.

I'm particularly concerned about Correa, as plantar fasciitis is frustratingly persistent, and subject to recurrence. Unfortunately, "less severe" feels as much like wishful thinking, as it does a diagnosis, That said, will hope for as good an outcome as possible.

Post break should be very compelling and exciting, keeping tabs on all the contending teams on a daily basis. So buckle up!

I just had plantar fasciitis. I think in most cases it's improper footwear (proper depends on the person). I love to walk & resisted giving it up but when I decided to give it a rest for a couple of days & added the proper footwear it cleared up. I'm not an expert & IDK what is proper footwear for Correa is & I'm sure what Correa's heels go through is much more intense beating than what I've experienced but I'm of the opinion that it's very treatable especially caught early.

[old nurse]

Launch angles, exit velocity, and the outcome of the pairing of the two has been around long enough and with enough games to have some validity.  I don’t know if speed of the base runner is factored in. The notion of regression for Cleveland is a reasonable one. The question is how much to expect. If their run differential decreases by 10% they are still a top team in the AL.  The difference in the standings would be unmanageable if the Twins don’t win the remaining series with Cleveland . One does have to hope that Texas and Houston stay in the races for the wild card as well as the NL central as it appears that Cleveland does have a lot of games with those teams 

[LA Vikes Fan]

2 hours ago, Joe A. Preusser said:

Awesome article Nick.  Any idea about relative strength of schedule between us and CLE? 

According to Tankathon.com, Cleveland has the 2nd toughest schedule the rest of the way with their opponents' winning percentage of 523.   The Twins schedule is no slouch though - the 7th toughest with an opponents winning percentage of .511. KC is 13th at .505, the Tighty Whitey's 14th at .503, and Detroit is 22nd at .492. 

Why all 3 above .500? Because the AL Central is one of the best divisions in baseball and they have to play each other. What?!!! How did that happen? You can really see it when you look at the list. The teams with the easiest schedules the rest of the way are mostly in the AL West, the easiest division in baseball, and then the NL West, probably the second easiest. It's also interesting that the AL East teams tend to have easier schedules. That suggests that maybe they paid their tougher out of division games already. Anyway, the Twins schedule is easier than the Guardians but not that much easier.

[LA Vikes Fan]

Thanks for the analysis, Nick. I think you're pretty spot on. That raises two questions, (1) what do we need to do to catch Cleveland and (2) how much of an advantage is it to being a division winner. Look, health is the factor we can't evaluate because significant injuries to either team would make a big difference. That also applies to Kansas City.

But assuming equal health luck, the answer to first question is easy. The Starting rotation is good but not great and we have very little depth behind the current starting five. We have now seen Varland and Festa start. Neither is ready to make a significant contribution this year. First, we need another starting pitcher and there are a couple out there who should be in our price range from both the salary and prospect perspective that would help – Tyler Anderson of the Angels, Erick Fedde of the White Sox, and Cal Quantrill of the Rockies. I would love to get someone like Evaldi, Flaherty, or even Kikuchi, but I just think the cost will be too high. Second, we need one more late inning reliever from the left side. If we can even even get either one of Stewrt or Topa back we have the right side covered. We could really use a guy like Tanner Scott, Jake Deikman, or Aroldis Chapman, but I've even take a guy like Andrew Chafin or Matt Moore. Alternatively, we could get a high-end gas guy from the right side and just drop a lefty and Carlos Estevez is available. We don't need a hitter badly enough to trade prospects of any value. The Lineup is relatively deep and can even survive some injuries.

I really hope we are talking to the Angels every day about trying to get Tyler Anderson and/or Carlos Estevez. They need young players in the worst way and we can probably get one or both of those guys without giving up any of our top 10 prospects, maybe even not anyone in the top 15.

How much of an advantage would be to win the division? It could be HUGE. I think it's a fair assumption that the winner of the AL Central will be the number two seed in the AL and get a bye in the first round. The number two seed is likely to get the winner of the AL West in the second round if that team can take out the number six seed, probably Boston or Kansas City. That means the an ALDS matchup with either Houston or Seattle, most likely Houston. That's a team we can beat. We then only have to play the surviving team from Baltimore, Cleveland, or the Yankees in the ALCS. In other words, we can avoid two of the three teams that are toughest to beat, and only have to play one of Baltimore, New York, and Cleveland to make the WS rather than two of them in two consecutive separate series. Winning the division is HUGE this year for our chances of actually having all deep playoff run.

I don't think Cleveland wins 100 or 101 games which is their current pace. I think it went much closer to 93 to 95 games, which means they go something like 37 – 30 or 35 – 32 the rest of the way. The Twins need to go 41-25 to win 95, 39-27 to win 93. I think they can do that with the team they have, I think the chances are actually pretty good if they add another quality starting pitcher and a quality reliever, and have relatively good health.

[Muppet]

The Twins' last four series will be against Boston, Cleveland, Miami, and Baltimore, 3/4 of which are pretty good teams. That should be an exciting end stretch. It will all depend on how well they can play against some big teams at the end. 

[Bob Twins Fan Since 61]

Pablo Lopez pitching like a true Ace is my #1 key factor.  Watching him pitch his stuff overall looks good.  His sweeper and change up movement have been somewhat inconsistent.  Which are being hit into the seats to much.  Most importantly, he got to be more aggressive pitching inside to hitters.  Make them respect he will come in on them.  That will keep them from reaching his breaking pitches on the outside edge of the plate.  Come on Pablo let's go!

[Patzky]

11 minutes ago, Muppet said:

The Twins' last four series will be against Boston, Cleveland, Miami, and Baltimore, 3/4 of which are pretty good teams. That should be an exciting end stretch. It will all depend on how well they can play against some big teams at the end. 

Everyone is NY and Baltimore for the East and the WC. Red Sox are right behind them.

[bean5302]

I expect the Guardians to have some serious regression, but they've carried a lot of luck their way until pretty late into the season already. Regression doesn't generally all happen at once so there's probably not enough time left for the Guardians to drop to 3rd in the AL Central, but it's where they should be at this point.

[IndianaTwin]

Cleveland has four regular position players with an OPS+ below Eduard Julien. Their rotation has three starters with an ERA+ below Chris Paddack. It's their bullpen that's been lights out and carrying them.  

On the left are the innings pitched by Cleveland's bullpen guys. The Twins are on the right. Three Cleveland guys are on pace for 74+ innings, with three more close behind. This looks like injuries (or loss of effectiveness) waiting to happen.  

          

 

[Schmoeman5]

6 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

I expect the Guardians to have some serious regression, but they've carried a lot of luck their way until pretty late into the season already. Regression doesn't generally all happen at once so there's probably not enough time left for the Guardians to drop to 3rd in the AL Central, but it's where they should be at this point.

Yeah, right. Your regression narrative doesn't take into consideration that all the metrics are wrong. Take Kwan for example.  The metrics say he shouldn't be doing what he's doing based on past seasons. What they don't take into consideration is that he's a different player. He's worked on adding more pop to his bat. He's no longer a Luiz Arreaz type hitter stroking line drives to left. He's pulling the ball when pitched in. And he's doing it with some thump. Guess who's capitalizing on Kwans success. Ramirez. And this article comes out when Lewis, Correa, Buxton, Miranda, are out or slowed. Are their replacements going to exceed the performance of those guys? And what about regression for Twins players? Oh that's right. That doesn't happen for the home 9. See you next month for the same type article.