Why the Minnesota Twins Will Overtake the Cleveland Guardians in the Second Half

[RpR]

2 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

I just had plantar fasciitis. I think in most cases it's improper footwear (proper depends on the person). I love to walk & resisted giving it up but when I decided to give it a rest for a couple of days & added the proper footwear it cleared up. I'm not an expert & IDK what is proper footwear for Correa is & I'm sure what Correa's heels go through is much more intense beating than what I've experienced but I'm of the opinion that it's very treatable especially caught early.

I used to think shoes were shoes; I would try on a pair and know instantly if there was a major problem.

I found out in the past ten years, that shoe nasties can show up a goodly deal of time after purchase, and makes life miserable.

[RpR]

How the Twins do against the Phillie will be a message or an omen as to how the last half of the season goes.

Perform like they did against NYY and the Dodgers, very bad news.

[Brandon]

Cleveland offense is spearheaded by three key. Players.  on base machine Kwan and RBI guys Naylor and Ramirez.  If any of these three goes into a prolonged slump their offense is going to struggle.  Someone already pointed out the key to their success is their bullpen.  Not saying Cleveland can’t pull it off but it is more of an uphill battle for them to keep their offense going.  I suspect they can find help for their pen if needed.  
The Twins however have the deepest lineup and deepest bench.  They are designed to score runs.  I’m surprised they are not hitting more home runs as a team.  But their offense doesn’t center around a few players the same way as Cleveland so anyone can step up at anytime and lead the offense for a while.  

[FlyingFinn]

Anyone else surprised that Castro played SS and Lee was at 2B? Lee played so much SS in the minors and Castro played an excellent 2B. But it worked great last weekend so I can't complain.

[DJL44]

Quote

Their pitchers are eighth in ERA, but 15th in FIP. Their staff has the eighth-lowest BABIP in the majors and the second-highest strand rate.

That can all be explained by good defense.

[Beast]

I’m not so sure.  There’s plenty of regression to be had on the Twins roster.

In my opinion, numerous hitters performed at an unsustainable level in the first half.  Larnach, Castro, and Jeffers have already come back to earth.  We saw Lewis slump, and he certainly won’t continue to slug .700.  Lee has shown some holes with a .313 OBP and .744 OPS now after his torrid start.  History says Buxton will hit and injury or extended slump at some point.  Correa developing plantar fasciitis might derail him, but his production may be unsustainable even if healthy.  Miranda had a nice run, but he’s due for a slump as well.  Things could turn back to anemic offense we saw early in the season in a hurry if it happens all at once.  I could see Kepler start hitting for some power and Wallner continue to hit some home runs, but who knows.

Lopez could turn things around, but Ryan has shown us second half meltdowns and has given up 13 runs in his last 4 starts with less than 6 IP in each.  Ober is has been good, but his last 6 starts have been against the White Sox, Tigers, Mariners, Oakland (twice), and the Pirates.  The four starts prior to that, he gave up 16 runs over 4 starts against the Yankees, Royals, Tangers, and Cleveland, while not making it beyond 5 innings in any of those.  He’s also got quite the history of durability issues, and is already at 100 innings.  SWR is a clear regression candidate and Paddack isn’t any good.  There’s also some bullpen guys pitching above their head, historically, that could be regression candidates.

Looking at the Guardians roster, not sure I see any strong regression candidates other than Kwan.

Houston and Boston are both playing very good baseball and are closer to us than we are to the Guardians.  I think it’s more likely that we get chased down by them and miss the playoffs all together than win the division.  I still expect them to make the playoffs, but it is still way more up in the air than most seem to think.  Too many people are already looking forward to the playoffs.

[wabene]

22 minutes ago, Beast said:

I’m not so sure.  There’s plenty of regression to be had on the Twins roster.

In my opinion, numerous hitters performed at an unsustainable level in the first half.  Larnach, Castro, and Jeffers have already come back to earth.  We saw Lewis slump, and he certainly won’t continue to slug .700.  Lee has shown some holes with a .313 OBP and .744 OPS now after his torrid start.  History says Buxton will hit and injury or extended slump at some point.  Correa developing plantar fasciitis might derail him, but his production may be unsustainable even if healthy.  Miranda had a nice run, but he’s due for a slump as well.  Things could turn back to anemic offense we saw early in the season in a hurry if it happens all at once.  I could see Kepler start hitting for some power and Wallner continue to hit some home runs, but who knows.

Lopez could turn things around, but Ryan has shown us second half meltdowns and has given up 13 runs in his last 4 starts with less than 6 IP in each.  Ober is has been good, but his last 6 starts have been against the White Sox, Tigers, Mariners, Oakland (twice), and the Pirates.  The four starts prior to that, he gave up 16 runs over 4 starts against the Yankees, Royals, Tangers, and Cleveland, while not making it beyond 5 innings in any of those.  He’s also got quite the history of durability issues, and is already at 100 innings.  SWR is a clear regression candidate and Paddack isn’t any good.  There’s also some bullpen guys pitching above their head, historically, that could be regression candidates.

Looking at the Guardians roster, not sure I see any strong regression candidates other than Kwan.

Houston and Boston are both playing very good baseball and are closer to us than we are to the Guardians.  I think it’s more likely that we get chased down by them and miss the playoffs all together than win the division.  I still expect them to make the playoffs, but it is still way more up in the air than most seem to think.  Too many people are already looking forward to the playoffs.

I think this is a pretty reasoned counterpoint to the article. That is why they play the games and we watch.

[Trov]

5 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

I don't put much stock in launch angle & exit velo as any indication of luck. What they attribute as luck is the ability to spray the ball around the field & one who hit the ball hard & the inability to do so is unlucky. Many also attribute luck with winning one-run games. Winning one-run games is due to having hitters who can hit in the clutch (which is an ability) & not strike out.  

 

Luck is more than just hard hit and launch angle to outcomes.  I agree that if that is all you look at it is poor way to evaluate if someone is getting lucky more than not.  However, having a large number of your HR be just over the wall plays into that.  If you hit a ball that would be a fly out in 29 stadiums but the one you are in and it is a HR there, that is some luck involved. If you your starting pitchers are always getting out of jams, eventually that will even out some most likely. 

I have not seen many Cleveland games, only those against the Twins, and I cannot say they got by with a lot of luck, but if you are hitting balls that have low expected hit percentage, unless that was planned to hit where they did, that is luck.  Now, it is true you cannot get lucky if you do not make contact so just having the ability to make contact can help you out some. In part, once the Twins lowered their K rate in late April, they started putting up a ton more runs too. 

[Mike Sixel]

Health, health, health. With health, I think MN catches CLE. If CC or Buxton is hurt/hurt, good luck to MN. If one of the top 3 starters gets hurt, yikesmcyikeyson. 

[Brandon]

50 minutes ago, Beast said:

I’m not so sure.  There’s plenty of regression to be had on the Twins roster.

In my opinion, numerous hitters performed at an unsustainable level in the first half.  Larnach, Castro, and Jeffers have already come back to earth.  We saw Lewis slump, and he certainly won’t continue to slug .700.  Lee has shown some holes with a .313 OBP and .744 OPS now after his torrid start.  History says Buxton will hit and injury or extended slump at some point.  Correa developing plantar fasciitis might derail him, but his production may be unsustainable even if healthy.  Miranda had a nice run, but he’s due for a slump as well.  Things could turn back to anemic offense we saw early in the season in a hurry if it happens all at once.  I could see Kepler start hitting for some power and Wallner continue to hit some home runs, but who knows.

Lopez could turn things around, but Ryan has shown us second half meltdowns and has given up 13 runs in his last 4 starts with less than 6 IP in each.  Ober is has been good, but his last 6 starts have been against the White Sox, Tigers, Mariners, Oakland (twice), and the Pirates.  The four starts prior to that, he gave up 16 runs over 4 starts against the Yankees, Royals, Tangers, and Cleveland, while not making it beyond 5 innings in any of those.  He’s also got quite the history of durability issues, and is already at 100 innings.  SWR is a clear regression candidate and Paddack isn’t any good.  There’s also some bullpen guys pitching above their head, historically, that could be regression candidates.

Looking at the Guardians roster, not sure I see any strong regression candidates other than Kwan.

Houston and Boston are both playing very good baseball and are closer to us than we are to the Guardians.  I think it’s more likely that we get chased down by them and miss the playoffs all together than win the division.  I still expect them to make the playoffs, but it is still way more up in the air than most seem to think.  Too many people are already looking forward to the playoffs.

What your missing is the Twins have so many hitters who can go on hit streaks more so then Cleveland who has basically 3 really good hitters.  If any of this three slump Cleveland is in trouble.  If Correa slumps Buxton or Jeffers or Santana or Kepler or Miranda or ….. could get hot.  

[Linus]

38 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Health, health, health. With health, I think MN catches CLE. If CC or Buxton is hurt/hurt, good luck to MN. If one of the top 3 starters gets hurt, yikesmcyikeyson. 

This will likely end up being the key factor. We can speculate on stats etc but if key guys go down on one club it would likely be the decider. 

[Jeff K]

5 hours ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

Thanks for the analysis, Nick. I think you're pretty spot on. That raises two questions, (1) what do we need to do to catch Cleveland and (2) how much of an advantage is it to being a division winner. Look, health is the factor we can't evaluate because significant injuries to either team would make a big difference. That also applies to Kansas City.

But assuming equal health luck, the answer to first question is easy. The Starting rotation is good but not great and we have very little depth behind the current starting five. We have now seen Varland and Festa start. Neither is ready to make a significant contribution this year. First, we need another starting pitcher and there are a couple out there who should be in our price range from both the salary and prospect perspective that would help – Tyler Anderson of the Angels, Erick Fedde of the White Sox, and Cal Quantrill of the Rockies. I would love to get someone like Evaldi, Flaherty, or even Kikuchi, but I just think the cost will be too high. Second, we need one more late inning reliever from the left side. If we can even even get either one of Stewrt or Topa back we have the right side covered. We could really use a guy like Tanner Scott, Jake Deikman, or Aroldis Chapman, but I've even take a guy like Andrew Chafin or Matt Moore. Alternatively, we could get a high-end gas guy from the right side and just drop a lefty and Carlos Estevez is available. We don't need a hitter badly enough to trade prospects of any value. The Lineup is relatively deep and can even survive some injuries.

I really hope we are talking to the Angels every day about trying to get Tyler Anderson and/or Carlos Estevez. They need young players in the worst way and we can probably get one or both of those guys without giving up any of our top 10 prospects, maybe even not anyone in the top 15.

How much of an advantage would be to win the division? It could be HUGE. I think it's a fair assumption that the winner of the AL Central will be the number two seed in the AL and get a bye in the first round. The number two seed is likely to get the winner of the AL West in the second round if that team can take out the number six seed, probably Boston or Kansas City. That means the an ALDS matchup with either Houston or Seattle, most likely Houston. That's a team we can beat. We then only have to play the surviving team from Baltimore, Cleveland, or the Yankees in the ALCS. In other words, we can avoid two of the three teams that are toughest to beat, and only have to play one of Baltimore, New York, and Cleveland to make the WS rather than two of them in two consecutive separate series. Winning the division is HUGE this year for our chances of actually having all deep playoff run.

I don't think Cleveland wins 100 or 101 games which is their current pace. I think it went much closer to 93 to 95 games, which means they go something like 37 – 30 or 35 – 32 the rest of the way. The Twins need to go 41-25 to win 95, 39-27 to win 93. I think they can do that with the team they have, I think the chances are actually pretty good if they add another quality starting pitcher and a quality reliever, and have relatively good health.

Very well stated.  I think the best thing that can happen for the Twins is for Lopez to return to form.  He has pitched well in (I believe) 3 of has last 4 starts.  That gives the Twins 3 very solid starters and backed by two decent starters.  Another starter to improve our depth is something the front office ought to pursue.

[2wins87]

My basic heuristic for Cleveland playing at their true talent level is that I'll believe it once Jose Ramirez is statistically their best hitter.

Getting closer now with Fry very close to slipping below Ramirez in OPS.  Still a couple of rookies with small samples and Steven Kwan.  I might accept Kwan OPSing higher than Ramirez, though ultimately I don't see anything to suggest that his bat is really much that much different than Luis Arraez's. Basically he had the first half this year that Arraez did last year and ultimately he will be around an .800 OPS guy (though with a lot better defense than Arraez).

They're a good team though and still have a 5 game lead so I don't if the Twins will catch them.  It should be a good race though.

[Road trip]

6 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

I just had plantar fasciitis. I think in most cases it's improper footwear (proper depends on the person). I love to walk & resisted giving it up but when I decided to give it a rest for a couple of days & added the proper footwear it cleared up. I'm not an expert & IDK what is proper footwear for Correa is & I'm sure what Correa's heels go through is much more intense beating than what I've experienced but I'm of the opinion that it's very treatable especially caught early.

I wish I could give this an upvote, but that was certainly not my experience with plantar, nor that of many other sufferers I have known.  Obviously Correa suffered from it all of last year on the other foot, so I doubt his problem this year is "bad footwear"...surely he has been broken of that habit.   I absolutely hope you are correct but for many this is a life-long condition, even with the best doctors and treatments.  Any flare up is frankly very bad news for Correa and the Twins.

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

5 hours ago, Schmoeman5 said:

Yeah, right. Your regression narrative doesn't take into consideration that all the metrics are wrong. Take Kwan for example.  The metrics say he shouldn't be doing what he's doing based on past seasons. What they don't take into consideration is that he's a different player. He's worked on adding more pop to his bat. He's no longer a Luiz Arreaz type hitter stroking line drives to left. He's pulling the ball when pitched in. And he's doing it with some thump. Guess who's capitalizing on Kwans success. Ramirez. And this article comes out when Lewis, Correa, Buxton, Miranda, are out or slowed. Are their replacements going to exceed the performance of those guys? And what about regression for Twins players? Oh that's right. That doesn't happen for the home 9. See you next month for the same type article.

The metrics say that based on his batted balls from this season Kwan has the 11th largest difference in BA-xBA and the 3rd largest difference in SLG-xSLG (nearly 100 points) of any qualified batter in the league.

To give him his due, he is hitting the ball harder and has improved in those expected metrics. However, he's still very far from being a power hitter deserving of a .500 slugging. 

Even accounting for his improvement, he's still massively overperforming his metrics.

Cleveland, as a team, has the worst batted ball characteristics in the league. Can they keep outperforming their metrics for 70 more games? Maybe, but if it were the Twins I wouldn't bet on it. 

[stringer bell]

I think the head-to-head games between the Twins and Guardians will determine the Central champ. The Twins would have to win seven of eight against Cleveland to get the tiebreaker, but six of eight would make up almost all the ground between the two clubs.

Health and pitching will determine if they can overtake Cleveland. 

[IaBeanCounter]

I believe that the Twins can catch Cleveland if they have relatively good health.  To me this year reminds me more of 2003 when KC was playing over their heads and the Twins were 7.5 games back at the all-star break.  The Twins added Shannon Stewart and won the division.   I think Brooks Lee can be this years Shannon Stewart with his on base abilities and the Twins will have the equivalent of an August trade when Lewis comes back.  JMHO

 

[Shaitan]

5 hours ago, RpR said:

I used to think shoes were shoes; I would try on a pair and know instantly if there was a major problem.

I found out in the past ten years, that shoe nasties can show up a goodly deal of time after purchase, and makes life miserable.

Been wearing dad shoes for about 10 years here too. Feels so much better.

[Shaitan]

I'll add the intangible that this team doesn't give up. Most games are close, including scoring 7 in the 9th the other week. If they can keep that spirit up their odds are good.

[RpR]

7 minutes ago, IaBeanCounter said:

 I think Brooks Lee can be this years Shannon Stewart with his on base abilities and the Twins will have the equivalent of an August trade when Lewis comes back.  JMHO

 

🤩

You mean if he quits immitating Louis Arraez by literally throwing a game away.😂

[IndianaTwin]

5 hours ago, RpR said:

I used to think shoes were shoes; I would try on a pair and know instantly if there was a major problem.

I found out in the past ten years, that shoe nasties can show up a goodly deal of time after purchase, and makes life miserable.

Shoes are most definitely not just shoes. They make a difference. Ask Cliff.

 

[chinmusic]

15 minutes ago, IaBeanCounter said:

Shannon Stewart

"After his stellar 2003 season, Stewart suffered from plantar fasciitis problems in both feet, limiting him to 92 games in 2004 and only 44 in 2006."

I remember that quite well.

May history not repeat itself.

[IndianaTwin]

3 hours ago, Beast said:

... [Ober's] also got quite the history of durability issues, and is already at 100 innings.  

Ober did have 167 innings pitched last year, including the minors. He's on pace for 169. 

[Fatbat]

4 hours ago, RpR said:

🤩

You mean if he quits immitating Louis Arraez by literally throwing a game away.😂

I bet he never does that again!

[Jim wyllie]

Another thing to think about is 2 years ago the roles were reversed and the guardians over took so it's probable we could return the favor this year and Clevelands lineup is solid but alot of their hitters have been playing well above their previous numbers and likely can't maintain that.

[Fatbat]

I predict the Twins will go on a heater and end up with 99 wins and a central div crown. Cleveland will finish with closer to 94 wins and  KC, Astros and Yankees will fight it out for the last wild card slot. 

[twinssporto]

I don't really care if the Twins overtake Cleveland or not. I only want 3 things:

1. Twins make the playoffs (wildcard is fine by me)

2. Twins get blistering hot in the playoffs

3. Twins win the World Series

It seems to me over the last 10-15 years the best teams in MLB rarely win the World Series anymore. Just the teams that get hot during the playoffs...

[Bodie]

How many years have we (basically all non-Cleveland fans) said Cleveland "ain't as good as their record"?

The time has long passed to give up this trope and accept that Cleveland puts a very good team on the field, and if you are waiting for them to come back to earth, you are likely to be disappointed. 

Either that Fracona magic is so strong he need not even be around, or maybe the Spiders have a pretty good model for putting team on the field year after year. 

You need to beat them, they won't do it for you!

[Charlie19]

I remember 06 like yesterday and those guys would have made noise if not for the injuries to Radke, and Liriano. (Not to mention the error Hunter made that had a .000001% chance of happening)

I don't think this team has ever been in a hole that deep. This four games is nothing. Cleveland can't sustain this lead. Again, if we can somehow stay healthy..we are top 3 in the AL.

if I'm Falvey..and obviously I'm not...I'm shopping for Scherzer, Eovaldi, or maybe Quantrill, or t.Anderson. that 4-5 rotation spot isn't going to matter in October but it matters if you want to be playing then.

At this point, money should not be the object. The players are here. Let's go Win!

[Peter]

No more negativity/badmouthing!!! We got the team to win it all!!! Once everyone is back at full health no stopping the twins!!! They are must see/watch/listen to!!! I’m planning everything around twins. Forget about going out with friends/working and missing games!!! No way!!! Twins are must watch and another World Series championship will happen!!! Go twins!!!!