Ranking the Twins Veterans Most Likely to Be Let Go

[Cody Christie]

The Minnesota Twins have multiple veteran pieces who have underperformed to this point in the season. With little future connection to the team, which players will the team move on from if their performance doesn’t improve?

Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

Minnesota’s front office has accumulated veteran players in recent seasons to add a layer of roster depth. There have been hits (Willi Castro, Michael A. Taylor, Donovan Solano) and misses (Joey Gallo, Chris Archer, Dylan Bundy). The team has also shown a propensity to hang on to these veteran players well past their expiration date, which can be frustrating for fans. It’s only one month into the 2024 season, but some players have failed to meet expectations. Have the Twins learned from past mistakes, or will the front office fall into their old habits?

6. Willi Castro, UTIL - rWAR: 0.6
Castro has one year of arbitration eligibility remaining, but he will get expensive, with an estimated salary of over $5 million. It seems unlikely the Twins will offer him arbitration at that amount, unless his performance significantly improves. Last season, Castro had a career year with a 107 OPS+, 33 steals, and the ability to play six different defensive positions. His 2024 season started slowly, to say the least, with a .431 OPS through his first 16 games. However, Castro ended the month as one of the team’s hottest hitters, with a .986 OPS over his last 12 games. Castro built up enough equity last season that it would take a massive slump for the team to move on from him.
Likelihood to Be Let Go: Low

5. Caleb Thielbar, LHP - rWAR: -0.3
Thielbar is in his final year of arbitration eligibility, pitching in his age-37 season. He is also the most expensive bullpen arm this season, just north of $3 million. Previously, Thielbar was on the brink of retirement, but there is little doubt that he saved a struggling Twins bullpen during the 2023 campaign. His injury held him back at the start of the year, but Minnesota’s coaches trusted him enough to put him in save situations before Jhoan Durán returned from the IL. The bullpen has been one of the team’s strengths this season, and there have been some tough decisions regarding roster spots. For now, Thielbar is more than safe, as one of the team’s veteran late-inning options.
Likelihood to Be Let Go: Low

4. Kyle Farmer, IF - rWAR:  -0.3
It was somewhat surprising for the Twins to bring back Farmer this season with a $6.3 million arbitration figure. Many believed Minnesota’s front office would attempt to trade him this winter because of the lack of shortstops available on the free agent market. Instead, the club held on to the veteran to provide depth, but he is a little bit of a luxury item on a team that cut $30 million in payroll. He has struggled mightily on both sides of the ball to start the year with a 30 OPS+ and a Fielding Run Value in the 64th percentile. His most significant contribution this season has been introducing the home run sausage. When they need to replace the sausage, his protection runs out.
Likelihood to Be Let Go: Medium

3. Carlos Santana, 1B - rWAR: -0.3
Santana’s signing was interesting, because he seemed to fit a role where the Twins had other options. Still, the front office loves depth, and he has previously tortured the Twins. Santana got off to a horrendous start, posting a .347 OPS in his first 16 games. Thankfully, he ended April on a hot streak, going 11-for-38 (.290 BA) with two doubles and four home runs across 10 games. His defense at first continues to be strong, with an OAA in the 83rd percentile. Minnesota doesn’t need him to play at an All-Star level in his age-38 season, but they can’t afford to have an offensive black hole at first base.
Likelihood to Be Let Go: Medium 

2. Jay Jackson, RHP - rWAR: 0.1 WAR
Jackson was among a handful of relievers the Twins’ front office targeted this winter to upgrade a group that struggled through portions of 2023. His career has undergone many ups and downs, with parts of multiple seasons played in Japan. In mid-April, his ERA ballooned over 5.00 as he has allowed earned runs in five of his first 11 appearances. Jackson continues to miss bats, with a 32.0 Whiff% and a 28.1 K%, but he has given up too much hard contact (43.9 Hard-Hit%). The Twins have multiple bullpen arms and are performing well, so Jackson needs to prove he can fill his role in the team’s reliever hierarchy. 
Likelihood to Be Let Go: Medium

1. Manuel Margot, OF - rWAR: -0.5 WAR
Margot’s role with the team may increase with Byron Buxton leaving Wednesday’s game with an injury. However, giving Buxton's at-bats to another player might be in the team’s best interest. Margot's OPS is nearly 160 points lower than his career mark, and his 56 OPS+ is nearly unplayable, even if he continued to be a strong defender. His sprint speed dropped from 28.3 last season to 27.0 in 2024, which explains his defensive decline (-1 OAA, -1 Fielding Run Value). Margot has a $12 million team option for next year that the Twins won’t pick up. For now, he needs to find a way to provide some value, or there is no reason for him to be on the roster. 
Likelihood to Be Let Go: High

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How would you rank the players listed above? Will the team consider dropping veteran players this season? Leave a comment to start the discussion.

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[Hrbeks Divot]

The only one I’d really consider right now is Margot. I’d prefer to see Austin Martin getting a long run. He wasn’t spectacular but was holding his own and bringing something different to the lineup. Depending on how Topa looks over his next few appearances I would imagine that Jackson is actually more likely to be let go. The FO has a history of juggling relievers and hanging on to the veteran position players. The rest on the list will have much longer leashes for varying reasons.

[Karbo]

Margot is not an acceptable fill in for Buxton. It would have to be Castro or Martin. Margot has looked slow and bad in the OF.

[4twinsJA]

I would guess all 6 are still on Twins by AllStar break. Maybe 1-2 gone by September. All gone but maybe one for next year.

[Patzky]

13 minutes ago, Karbo said:

Margot is not an acceptable fill in for Buxton. It would have to be Castro or Martin. Margot has looked slow and bad in the OF.

I'd agree with your assessment. Joey Gallo at least brought defense.. but there are duplicate talent levels available elsewhere. No. 13 jersey it's time this move on once again..

[FlyingFinn]

The games I have watched, Margot's defense isn't even average. He doesn't catch balls that an average OF would catch.

[Doctor Gast]

I wouldn't do any of the main trades that were done or the signing of Santana those acquisitions held back our own players more worthy but the damage has been done and we are a weaker team because of it. Twins double down on their mistake so I expect they'll hang unto them as long as possible. 

We still have Martin so Margot is expendable but he's not going anywhere soon. In the beginning of the off-season we had Julien, Miranda & Kiriloff to play 1B a heck of a lot better options than Santana. But the Twins wanted Santana to be our every day 1Bman. Trading Polanco limited our options because basically Julien is stuck at 2B. Like Gallo, Santana isn't going anywhere. Jay Jackson, although has contributed, is the most likely to be let go because the Twin like to rotate arms & he's less flexible.

Castro & Farmer are valuable bench players that'll bounce back nicely now that Correa is back. They shouldn't be going anywhere.

 

[saviking]

They never admit they were wrong. As long as they remain on the team, they can pretend, but the minute they cut them, they have to own up. It's really sad but it's the truth

[David Maro]

After watching Pham play in Chicago this week,he would have been a better signing than Margot.

[CRF]

As much as I'd like to see a few of these guys gone, I bet they're here most, if not all season. It's just not this FO's style to dump players. 

[Riverbrian]

Jay Jackson is the only possibility because there is only so much roster space that you can devote to your bullpen. 

The rest on this list are here for the year. 

 

[stringer bell]

This list is an illustration of how long the season is and how much things can change in ten days. Castro and Santana have gotten going catapulting Willi to the heir apparent in center field and keeping Santana in full-time regular status. Farmer has gotten a few hits and played quite a bit while Thielbar closed out a couple games and Jackson threw scoreless ball. The only guy that hasn't improved in this streak is Margot (3-14 .214 BA).

[Jeff K]

32 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

I wouldn't do any of the main trades that were done or the signing of Santana those acquisitions held back our own players more worthy but the damage has been done and we are a weaker team because of it. Twins double down on their mistake so I expect they'll hang unto them as long as possible. 

We still have Martin so Margot is expendable but he's not going anywhere soon. In the beginning of the off-season we had Julien, Miranda & Kiriloff to play 1B a heck of a lot better options than Santana. But the Twins wanted Santana to be our every day 1Bman. Trading Polanco limited our options because basically Julien is stuck at 2B. Like Gallo, Santana isn't going anywhere. Jay Jackson, although has contributed, is the most likely to be let go because the Twin like to rotate arms & he's less flexible.

Castro & Farmer are valuable bench players that'll bounce back nicely now that Correa is back. They shouldn't be going anywhere.

 

I don't think I understand your comment that Julien is stuck on 2nd.  That's where he belongs, his fielding has improved and Polanco is on the downside of his career.

[wabene]

With only 13 position players it is hard to hide anyone. The FO has shown some aggressive moves with young players, demoting underperformers. They have not shown the willingness to part ways with veterans. I get that it can be a tough balancing act. Every game counts, let's get the best team out there. 

Based on their track record I would put Jackson as most likely with Margot second.

[stringer bell]

14 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Jay Jackson is the only possibility because there is only so much roster space that you can devote to your bullpen. 

The rest on this list are here for the year. 

 

It seems that the Twins have an excess of relief pitchers, but we thought that in the last week of spring training when Topa, Staumont, Thielbar and Durán all went down. Right now the bullpen options are all healthy, but it could be a completely different story in a week.

[arby58]

Last year, a lot of commentators would have axed Max Kepler at just about any point before the All Star break - he was hitting under .200 as late as June 28th. Then he turned into one of the Twins most productive players in the second half. This year, the 'black hole' that is Santana had a stretch of 4 HRs in 5 games, which helped fuel their current 10-game winning streak. Recently, Farmer has come up with some clutch hits, and Kepler, after returning from an injury, has had game winning RBIs in consecutive games.

It's a long season, and these claims that the Twins 'won't let go' because they then have to 'own' their mistakes glosses over the Keplers of the second half of the 2023 MLB season. The Twins front office and managers/coaches see these players every day, including batting practice and other situations the casual fan does not. I'm far more willing to give them the benefit of the doubt. 

[Fatbat]

Austin Martin provides 10times more value than Margot. Send him out now and bring Martin back!

[Whitey333]

Very nice article.  I agree with your assessments. Although I lovevtge 10 game winning streak ( who wouldnt) I'm afraid it covered up some of the many flaws on this team.  It's one thing to beat up on the weak sisters of the poor, i.e. white sox and angels.  I'm hoping we hold our own against the Red Sox, Mariners, Blue Jay's, Yankees, and guardians we have in our next 5 series.  Go Twins.

[nova_twins]

lol Castro is one of the best players on the team since he joined and ZiPS currently projects him as a starting caliber player at multiple positions. He's much more likely to be extended than let go. 

Only Margot is currently a realistic possibility to move on from over the next several months. 

[Fire Dan Gladden]

You didn't really specify the "when" part of letting a player go.  Is it now?  Some point in the season?  End of season?

The only player with any real risk here is Margot.  If Buxton goes down for an extended period of time, Margot is 100% safe.

The rest of this article is an exercise in wishful thinking.  Every player on that list has a history of performing better than they have.  There is no player in the minors to replace them with a high expectation they will perform better.  The Twins are obviously not going to increase payroll on a player from outside the organization.  What you see is what you get.

[jmlease1]

4 minutes ago, wabene said:

With only 13 position players it is hard to hide anyone. The FO has shown some aggressive moves with young players, demoting underperformers. They have not shown the willingness to part ways with veterans. I get that it can be a tough balancing act. Every game counts, let's get the best team out there. 

Based on their track record I would put Jackson as most likely with Margot second.

They also prioritize maintaining depth, especially early in the season. they're not going to be cutting veterans in April or May because then those players are gone. Younger players with options can be sent down and brought back. After the debacle of the 2022 season, where the team was in first place in the division in September and utterly collapsed and a major component of that collapse was the lack of depth to overcome injuries (we started an OF of Cave, Celestino, and Contreras in a key series against Cleveland!), this front office has made it a clear priority to have experienced MLB players on the roster and depth in the system to manage through that. 

While it was incredibly frustrating to see them stick with Gallo through the summer after he fell apart after a great first month, they also did the same with Kepler who was brutal in May and not much better until the later part of June...and Kepler was terrific in the second half of the season. So...how aggressive should they be in cutting the vets?

I like Martin, always have, but he didn't exactly wreck the league when he came up, and with Wallner flailing in AAA there's not a lot of depth behind him, especially not until someone like Emma gets moved up to AAA. With Brooks Lee dealing with an injury, that's cutting down the infield depth as well.

So I don't see any real likelihood of a veteran position player getting cut before midseason, absent a trade (which is also unlikely to happen before at least midseason).

It's really just the relievers who have to be concerned right now; Jackson is probably the most likely if anyone is in danger...and I don't think anyone really is. he's been fine, but not outstanding. He's been mostly in middle relief lower-leverage roles. He's the most fungible right now. Okert is a possibility, but he's pitched better than Thielbar so far and I don't see Thielbar going anywhere: he's been looking back to normal and has enough of a track record that he's going to earn some rope.

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, 4twinsJA said:

I would guess all 6 are still on Twins by AllStar break. Maybe 1-2 gone by September. All gone but maybe one for next year.

Exactly!!

Buxton is OUT for a bit. Can’t displace Margot with anyone from the minors with any level of confidence. Martin will take Buxton’s roster spot. Margot is a depth guy and will be kept into July as that piece, at a minimum.

Farmer is clubhouse glue and the new defensive replacement everywhere on the dirt with Castro in CF - very likely anyway.

I do think if Castro keeps playing near where he’s at today, he’ll be around in ‘25. Switch hitting veteran that can play 6 positions……with a good arm & speed. Sounds like the definition of the Utility Guy.

[Brandon]

If Ballys stops making their payments to the Twins since Comcast took them off air, and the Twins need to pare payroll as a result, then the correct answer is whoever they can trade including Vazquez and Kepler added to the list too.  
 

based on performance it’s Margot.  
 

Jackson hasn’t pitched bad enough to be let go.  Everyone else has a value with the team.  

Farmer has hit 5 for his last 12 AB.  if he hits like normal the rest of the season (,250 Average) and ends up with 250 AB. his average will remain low all year and end up just over .200 but he will still be a useful player moving forward.  I am more disappointed that he wasn't considered good enough to play SS as I thought that was the main reason to keep him last winter.  

[JD-TWINS]

6 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

They also prioritize maintaining depth, especially early in the season. they're not going to be cutting veterans in April or May because then those players are gone. Younger players with options can be sent down and brought back. After the debacle of the 2022 season, where the team was in first place in the division in September and utterly collapsed and a major component of that collapse was the lack of depth to overcome injuries (we started an OF of Cave, Celestino, and Contreras in a key series against Cleveland!), this front office has made it a clear priority to have experienced MLB players on the roster and depth in the system to manage through that. 

While it was incredibly frustrating to see them stick with Gallo through the summer after he fell apart after a great first month, they also did the same with Kepler who was brutal in May and not much better until the later part of June...and Kepler was terrific in the second half of the season. So...how aggressive should they be in cutting the vets?

I like Martin, always have, but he didn't exactly wreck the league when he came up, and with Wallner flailing in AAA there's not a lot of depth behind him, especially not until someone like Emma gets moved up to AAA. With Brooks Lee dealing with an injury, that's cutting down the infield depth as well.

So I don't see any real likelihood of a veteran position player getting cut before midseason, absent a trade (which is also unlikely to happen before at least midseason).

It's really just the relievers who have to be concerned right now; Jackson is probably the most likely if anyone is in danger...and I don't think anyone really is. he's been fine, but not outstanding. He's been mostly in middle relief lower-leverage roles. He's the most fungible right now. Okert is a possibility, but he's pitched better than Thielbar so far and I don't see Thielbar going anywhere: he's been looking back to normal and has enough of a track record that he's going to earn some rope.

To your point - Castro & Santana could have been in discussions for DFA material 2 weeks ago………since Santana has homered in 4 separate games……….Castro has his average up to .273. Waaay early.

[twinsfansd]

I don't think anybody will be leaving until after Royce comes back at least. And why deplenish the supply of bullpen arms. Keep as many as possible and mix and match as injuries and performance call for.

[Craig Arko]

If Buxton goes to the IL, Martin returns and Margot is the backup. Castro continues to play all over, Then when Buxton and Lewis return, a decision needs to be made.

[LA Vikes Fan]

It’s early, but Margot is the one most likely do not succeed. A lot depends on whether Buxton is out for a period. If he is, that actually may work against Margot‘s interest in staying on the team. Martin will be brought up if Buxton goes on the IL, and will assumedly play at least 50 to 60% of the time in centerfield, probably more. If he handles the position well defensively and even gets his OPS up to 700, he would be the person to keep when Buxton comes back. The person to lose would, obviously , be Margot. 
 

Same issues going to arise in the infield when Lewis is ready to come back. You would think Miranda could go, but he actually is the best hitter on the team right now, or maybe second behind Jeffers. It is a small sample size but if he continues to hit like this, I don’t see how you can send him down. That’s when guys like Farmer and Castro get at risk. If Buck is out for a longer period and Lewis comes back, Margot is traded or released, and Castro becomes more an outfielder than an infielder.

Bottom line, as I hope we actually act rationally this time. We have a chance to transition two more young, cost controlled hitters onto the team this year in Martin and Miranda. Let’s not lose that opportunity to keep a used up veteran like Margot and a marginal at best performer like Farmer on the roster, guys who will definitely not be on the team next year. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

1 hour ago, David Maro said:

After watching Pham play in Chicago this week,he would have been a better signing than Margot.

I had posted that months ago, that Pham would be a good back-up for Buck.  The Margot signing was a poor decision, which I also posted when it happened. I wish the FO would contact me before they make these decisions. 

[Seth Stohs]

10-game winning streak and we're taling about getting rid of guys, eh?

Jackson could be this year's Jharel Cotton because of the guaranteed contract. He could likely be sent down, clear waivers and get outrighted several times throughout the season as needed. 

Margot's fine in the corners. Can hit lefties. But yeah, he's susceptible if there are roster crunches. 

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

Trading Polanco limited our options because basically Julien is stuck at 2B.

Julien has been a very good 2B this season, and is certainly better than Polanco at this point in their careers.