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nova_twins

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Everything posted by nova_twins

  1. nova_twins
    Rest easy, there is literally a 0% chance, I promise. If I'm wrong I'll donate $100 to your favorite charity and post the receipt along with an apology.
  2. nova_twins
    Literal 0% chance Lewis is on the Twins next year. Everyone can move on.
  3. nova_twins
    Lee has an MLB career RC+ of 95 as a LHB and 73 as a RHB. Every scouting report in Lee's career says he's better against righties, his college and minor league results are consistent with that, Lee himself has talked about it and was openly surprised by his initial (very small sample) success against LHP, the Twins have openly talked about it. A 73 RC+ is horrible not just a little shortfall either.
  4. nova_twins
    I think Lee is probably an everyday 3rd baseman through his prime but his offensive limitations and lack of general athleticism are risks that never go away. And while the Twins do love switch hitters, Lee can't hit lefties. If Houston is the SS of the future then Culpepper presumably would need to play somewhere, and he's a better fit at 3rd than 2nd . . . Obviously if he or Houston (minors) struggle next year that would change the dynamic. So could Lee if he puts up a 120 RC+ or something in 2027. I wouldn't trade him after that!
  5. nova_twins
    Big talk about a guy with 2.8 career fwar in 345 games.
  6. nova_twins
    Tinney's batted ball data is a mixed bag imo. He'll need to show he can pull velocity, because despite having a lot of raw power it's not clear that his swing generates much oppo power.
  7. nova_twins
    Lee looks like trade bait to me, not this off-season but potentially next year. He'll need a solid (around average) offensive year to have much value of course.
  8. nova_twins
    Worth keeping in mind Jenkins missed a lot of minor league time with injuries, which undoubtedly slowed his development compared to what it could have been with a bunch more reps. In that context it was good he got some MLB experience to help prepare for next year.
  9. nova_twins
    Just briefly and yeah it's definitely an issue. The Twins might have to target someone who is mainly a DH going forward and use other guys at first base. And catcher is rough.
  10. nova_twins
    The owners will have been briefed repeatedly on the expected CBA outcome. The Pohlads already know what their plan A is. Most likely, it's a mix of the current system and national media revenue sharing in some form or fashion. Based on Tom Pohlad's statements and the potential of that outcome, it should be reasonable to expect a decent payroll bump to very roughly ~130 million. The free agent market has a good amount of pitching including a ton of relievers. So the most logical move would probably be to clear off dead weight like Larnach, Ober, Lewis, etc, opening up space to sign a few pitchers and trade for a position player contract another team wants out from.
  11. nova_twins
    Pure ragebait slop to be honest.
  12. nova_twins
    Matthews is never going to be even an average MLB starter, I think the Twins move him to the pen next spring training.
  13. nova_twins
    Well tbh the Twins haven't had many highly-ranked prospects. So it really just shows they need better prospects. Some of their "busts" were never highly ranked nationally to begin with.
  14. nova_twins
    Uh yeah the rest of the league is aware which is why the Twins won't get offered anything meaningful for Jeffers, so it's pointless to trade him.
  15. nova_twins
    Agreed. The yearning on here for mediocre prospects is tiresome. I personally like players who can actually play in the Majors, apparently this is the minority view however.
  16. nova_twins
    I would just add to the pitching staff and not deal away anyone, unless an org made a crazy offer for Jeffers. The value of prospects is not a big mystery, it can be put in financial terms. Fangraphs just had a big article with the latest numbers. Maybe $15-20 million for Jeffers, that's two solid but not elite prospects. Can someone explain to me like I'm 5 why saving the Pohlads $15-20 million that otherwise they have to sign in free agency someday is important? Like why do I need to support that instead of preferring to try to win?
  17. nova_twins
    Kinda weird imo to take two right hand hitting catchers with the first two selections. They do seem to have some kind of long term interest in a utility role that includes 3rd catcher along with other positions so maybe he's an upgraded version of Ricardo Olivar.
  18. nova_twins
    Letting Jeffers walk is totally fine, it's completely made up and inaccurate that grabbing a mediocre prospect or two actually matters at all.
  19. nova_twins
    I'm baffled by how eager some are, Gleeman being a media example, to get Jenkins to the big leagues before he's shown he's ready. Closest comparison to my memory is Brooks Lee, but at least in that case it made sense from an age perspective. Started very slow in his MLB career though.
  20. nova_twins
    The CBA looms large over the deadline. I don't think fans here or elsewhere are really factoring in how dramatically the proposed changes would impact roster construction. Overall I think clubs will be more cautious as a result, mostly sticking to deals around expiring contracts. I'm also way past the point of being interested in trading quality big leaguers for mediocre prospects. No one is going to offer enough for Ryan, for instance. Twins should trade Jeffers and add a couple relievers with low prospect cost and then see where MLB goes with the CBA.
  21. nova_twins
    Among qualifiers, Houston is ~21st offensively in the Midwest league and 25% above average, really not great for a college first rounder. Generally that production at age 22 would point towards a utility role at best, but there's belief Houston is a late bloomer with significant upside remaining and of course the SS defense as a foundation.
  22. nova_twins
    I don't think Houston has proven much offensively by doing OK at high A. He's maintained his prospect standing, which is good, and showing some positive signs, but there's no breakout yet and an MLB timeline is premature.
  23. nova_twins
    All prospects are risky. The main risk, which is the problem for 99% of prospects that don't make it, is that they aren't good enough to succeed in MLB. Rodriguez may or may not be able to overcome his injury issues but I don't see any reason to "panic," as this is unfortunately nothing new for him.
  24. nova_twins
    The bigger question with Lackey is whether he'll even be around at #3. If he is the Twins will take him. Not sure what happens if it's Emerson vs Flora, I'd assume Emerson would be more likely based on history.
  25. nova_twins
    It's interesting to me that Arcia had the highest tracked exit velocity of his career (110) recently at AAA, and yesterday the highest velocity infield throw for the Twins since good Correa. He might not be cooked.
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