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nova_twins

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Everything posted by nova_twins

  1. nova_twins
    This is cherry picking. In 2015 the Marlins ranked 30th in payroll and in 2016 they ranked 26th. At an overall level payroll did not drop.
  2. nova_twins
    That's just not true. Payroll went up and then as a strategy, used by other clubs, in year 3 they blew up the failed core and started over. There are never guarantees but anyone who buys the current core is going to want to try and make the playoffs.
  3. nova_twins
    It's very unlikely new ownership will come in running low payrolls, bordering on inconceivable. If an ownership group puts up 1.5-2 billion for their shiny new toy, they're going to want to win. The biggest risk is actually that the owners will make bad personnel decisions, or will interfere with baseball decisions. If a sale happens, payroll will go up, probably by a very significant amount.
  4. nova_twins
    Yeah they're just screwed with Paddack. Not even sure what the upside scenario is at this point. He comes back near the end to hopefully salvage some small amount of trade value? (meaning another club would pay a portion of his salary, certainly no one is taking all 7.5) If he could hold up physically out of the bullpen, might get some 2025 value there, but that seems doubtful too.
  5. nova_twins
    Hitting in the Bigs is hard, so any prospect can be doubted in that regard . . . Look at how Wyatt Langford has struggled this year, for one example. Or Torkelson completely busting. Winokur was a known commodity for the 2023 draft but it seems that other clubs weren't very interested at the $1.5 million price point, which is mid 2nd round money. With his 120 RC+ in A-ball at 19, Winokur is outpacing most similar 2023 signees and definitely tracking up in prospect status. Important to keep in mind that ceiling is disproportionately valuable, and Winokur has that.
  6. nova_twins
    Camargo has a 66 RC+ in AAA so it's hard for me to see what the Twins can do to replace either one. If they could move all of Vazquez' salary, they may well do it, but even with this hot streak I'm not sure how likely that is. They could trade for a catcher but I'm skeptical that's the position they would use surplus to target. Maybe.
  7. nova_twins
    Wallner will never be an asset against LHP. In-season ZiPS projects his 'true talent' as 123 RC+, standard corner platoon bat.
  8. nova_twins
    Per Fangraphs, Houston gave up a 50 FV player and a 45 FV, plus a throw in, which is definitely a significant price for Kikuchi unless you're convinced that for the first time in his career, he'll actually be good rather than just seeming like he should be good. Ownership cutting payroll had two impacts here - first limiting the options, but also they have made it extremely problematic to trade away prospects, because going forward even mediocre free agents are too expensive. I don't expect the Twins to give up significant prospect capital in any deals going forward, unless they swap one cheap player for another for positional reasons.
  9. nova_twins
    I like the 3rd and 4th picks. Overall this reminds me of 2021 when they took multiple guys that they then traded early in their pro careers. Everyone knows what's coming, a barrage of mid major starters, a strategy I like (also what a lot of teams do if you look at the numbers).
  10. nova_twins
    Culpepper isn't underslot. DeBarge maybe a little, but that's not super valuable in a weak draft.
  11. nova_twins
    Not a fan of selecting two very similar, low ceiling players like that. It's supposedly a bad draft so maybe there are legit problems with the 'upside' choices but still . . . Particularly odd given that the org is a little light in OF depth.
  12. nova_twins
    The Twins seem increasingly comfortable building depth in the middle and late rounds, so I would guess they'll focus on upside with their early picks. They're being linked in media to a lot of mid-upside college hitters like Waldschmidt, which is consistent with their drafting history, but I'm more inclined to see someone like Gillen, or even Brecht, college player but higher risk/ceiling.
  13. nova_twins
    The draft results take so long to ultimately play out that it's not easy to evaluate. One wrong way of doing it is cherry picking, like this article. What if someone got in a car accident, would that make it a bad pick in retrospect? The Sabato pick was under unusual circumstances. Pitchers get hurt. Etc. The relevant question for analysis is how the Twins are drafting compared to other teams.
  14. nova_twins
    Keaschall is already at AA, it's odd that wasn't updated in the article since it's already been a few days and the article was just posted. Also the OF position he's trying is CF, which is a premium position and not like being hidden in LF. He had some injury before the season which impacted his usage as well. Anyway I like him a lot as a prospect, he has good athleticism and has produced consistently in his career.
  15. nova_twins
    Holy moly the bad takes. If Kepler keeps hitting, he gets the QO and declines it, no question. He would be such a bargain that even if he took the QO, he'd be easy to trade. Can't lose situation for the twins. If he keeps hitting.
  16. nova_twins
    Matthews has a lot of prospect helium right now. Age isn't an issue if you're already good. Being younger is important so there's time to improve. When you're up to 97 with plus command and solid secondaries, it's just a matter of proving it on the field.
  17. nova_twins
    I'm kinda worried. Either he's still not healthy or he's struggling badly despite being healthy, neither of which are good. He doesn't add any value defensively so he can't just be a decent hitter, he really needs to rake. Kirilloff still has an option year so he might not be far off from demotion conversations, depending on the position player health situation.
  18. nova_twins
    Pitching has to be assembled multiple ways. Acquiring young pitchers and completing their development (inc. at the MLB level) is obviously part of any pitching 'pipeline'. Looking only at the draft is a more limited exercise and often requires a long wait to properly assess. Another way to look at it - if this doesn't count as a "pipeline," then why should anyone care about that idea anymore? The goal is to win baseball games not have the most prospects listed on the rankings.
  19. nova_twins
    On a bell curve, #8/30 is above average, not elite. Maybe top 3-4 would be elite. Above average FO, below average ownership, arguably below average luck, the results have been pretty much what should be expected. Another ignored element of this is that Falvine agreed not to clean house when they arrived. That added significant extra challenges, but as part of a longer term philosophy that predated them.
  20. nova_twins
    Most fans don't have the knowledge or intellectual capability to evaluate MLB front offices. Not to mention the decisions themselves - front offices have access to vastly greater amounts of information than fans do. Given those underlying realities, the survey results seem valid to me - baseball execs are a small group that know each other fairly well.
  21. nova_twins
    lol Castro is one of the best players on the team since he joined and ZiPS currently projects him as a starting caliber player at multiple positions. He's much more likely to be extended than let go. Only Margot is currently a realistic possibility to move on from over the next several months.
  22. nova_twins
    My concern with Emma is that only big league pitchers can really challenge him, so it will require significant adjustments . . . But on the flip side, he might already be better than Austin Martin (as an OF) and Margot for that matter. OF defense is extra important with a flyball staff.
  23. nova_twins
    He's fine. His command gets a little spotty at times, happened last year to varying degrees.
  24. nova_twins
    I wonder about Martin's long term fit despite widespread positivity. He's probably not good enough in CF to justify being the main alternative to Buxton. He doesn't really hit enough for the corners, so he doesn't help much post (?) Kepler. He's a weaker infield backup than Castro or Brooks Lee (once healthy). Not to mention there are other guys coming up a little behind but with a lot more potential, like Emma and Keaschall. I do think there are teams he can help in his prime, but the Twins roster may not turn out to be the best spot.
  25. nova_twins
    He moved to the bullpen because the Twins knew his arm/shoulder wouldn't make it as a starter. Zero chance the Twins consider this in any way, ever.
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