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nova_twins

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Everything posted by nova_twins

  1. nova_twins
    What's up with CJ Culpepper? Interesting he hasn't pitched yet.
  2. nova_twins
    The Blue Jays now are a closer comparison to the late 2010s Twins when their highly touted young position players couldn't quite translate into the desired level of success, for various reasons. The Twins subsequently fell off but bounced back with a combination of trade pick ups and additional young players arriving. And by playing in the AL central as others have noted. The Twins competitive window now is dependent largely on the health of their core players.
  3. nova_twins
    What percentage of PAs and innings have even be played by Major Leaguers? Team ST record is irrelevant. Individual performance is mostly irrelevant. Spring stats have been looked at extensively and their predictive value is very limited. There's also the fact that some players are doing very well. Jeffers, Kirilloff, Julien, Buxton to name a few. Correa looking better. Brooks Lee for depth. Zero reason for panic. If someone wants to worry a little about Wallner, well, ok, he was already projected to be one of their weakest starters by WAR. Looking forward to games that actually count.
  4. nova_twins
    Everyone knows the risk is sky high with flame-throwing 18 year olds. Soto reminds me of Duran - big, somewhat stiff, very hard sinker, good secondary pitches. Soto is an exciting prospect despite the odds, because it's hard to find impact pitching.
  5. nova_twins
    The Twins obviously won the deal, it's not even close.
  6. nova_twins
    He struck out multiple Tigers with some kind of cutter at 88-89. Nasty looking.
  7. nova_twins
    My impression is that even among third party analysts, lots of people are expecting massive regression from Wallner. But he's got points in his favor - - his Statcast data is excellent. He got a little lucky perhaps on batting average but unlucky on slugging, overall his expected results near exactly matched the actuals - along the same lines, this guy is a serious athlete. 100th percentile arm, 67th % speed, and plus plus power - he wasn't particularly vulnerable to off speed or breaking pitches - his weakness against LHP is probably overstated. In his breakout 2022 milb season, he crushed lefties, and his zone data doesn't look bad for countering them. He's of course much weaker than against RHP, like all left handed hitters
  8. nova_twins
    The Twins haven't drafted many high school pitchers, so I'm not sure it's accurate to say they have a problem developing them.
  9. nova_twins
    Miller is very good at SS but the twins have extremely detailed knowledge of him and clearly don't believe he'll ever hit. ZiPS projects his 2026 OPS to be .609. Keep in mind they didn't even have to include miller, the incoming prospect is more highly-rated if anything, and the twins/dodgers could have just changed the salary offset.
  10. nova_twins
    This is pretty straightforward, the twins can't generate enough surplus value by extending Ober because he's an injury risk already under team control. The numbers just don't work.
  11. nova_twins
    The luxury tax is an important factor. The Giants and Mets offered a large number of years to mitigate the AAV impact of the deal; once the long-term health issue became apparent, it blew up the financial basis of the deals from the club side. The Twins were able to go higher on AAV due to their low payroll, which in turn also made them much more flexible in structuring a deal. To put it another way, the Giants and Mets were only ever interested in "Low AAV Correa." That's *before* any physicals took place. The Twins never had that limitation. The same issue is also probably why other teams didn't jump in - clubs across MLB recognize Correa's value profile, and Minnesota was the best fit.
  12. nova_twins
    *exorcised
  13. nova_twins
    Lewis' debut was absolutely a huge deal, especially in combination with how he's played in AAA. You can dig into the metrics or you can just stick with the basics, it doesn't really matter - he's showing elite offensive upside along with the potential to play shortstop, which is incredibly rare. If anything, Lewis' development has been underhyped, because his 1st overall pick pedigree gets more attention than the fact his last minor league success had been 2018 in A-ball. In terms of expected future value, Lewis' rise this year has to be at or near the top across all MLB orgs.
  14. nova_twins
    The Twins are 7th in wRC+ and 16th in xFIP-. Raw numbers are almost difficult to look at because of the run-scoring environment. Pitching is still a significant concern for this team.
  15. nova_twins
    Brutal thread. Let's start here: Martin's drop in prospect status happened before the Twins made the trade. If he was tracking like a star, Toronto never would have dealt him. The public prospect lists take time to catch up. Berrios had value, but not as much as a number of TD posters seem to think. Next, player development is not a linear process, and it can take time. Miranda struggled for years with making hard contact. Lewis' overly aggressive swing took years to tone down. As with other prospects that later had breakouts, Martin has some strong MLB-caliber tools, including contact ability and plate discipline. Historically, hitters with better contact ability in the minors are more likely to become big leaguers. Also, Martin is 13/13 in stolen bases so far this year, and has the speed to be, at absolute worst, a decent corner outfielder. Obviously, Martin isn't going to succeed (even in AA) without hitting the ball harder. If it was an easy fix, it would already have happened. But this is quite literally Martin's job and the Twins' coaches' job. Maybe the swing will get fixed, maybe it won't . . . nothing has changed in that regard. That's particularly true given that his college career was disrupted by covid and he's played the rough equivalent of one full minor league season. The Twins knew Martin needed work when they acquired him, and . . . they're working on it. We'll see.
  16. nova_twins
    As some others have noted, the underlying reality here is that the rotation was/is a bigger problem than the bullpen, and a more difficult one to fix. The Twins likely are confident that some of their prospect arms will at least turn into solid relievers (if healthy), and also it's cheaper to acquire relievers via trade, relative to SP. No move is guaranteed to work but the strategy is clearly valid. They just have to execute on it.
  17. nova_twins
    I'm very relieved that the deal was made. There is one thing that nags me a little bit - if Buxton himself was highly confident in staying healthy going forward, would he sign this deal? With only one year to go until free agency, he's really *not* betting on himself here, despite the MVP escalators. There are of course a wide range of potential outcomes. The reality will probably be somewhere in between the best case (mostly full seasons with impact production) and worst case (mostly hurt) . . . just have to hope it's closer to the former, and that the Twins put a winning team around him.
  18. nova_twins
    The part that gets me is - the Twins have very little long-term money on the books. What exactly is the trade-off here? Is there some funny business going on with Pohlad's budget? I never really believed that Terry Ryan just enjoyed being cheap or whatever all those years . . . if fingers start pointing at Falvine over the payroll being low, surely it means that Pohlad is in the background. Folks are just grasping at straws though, because we just can't make sense of it . . . guys like Buxton are the key to winning the World Series . . . there is no media reporting that Buxton's asking price is crazy high. The reporting numbers seem incomplete in some way, because otherwise it seems inconceivable that the Twins would be holding out on him. Maybe some crazy opt outs or something? I've been supportive of Falvine from the beginning but this issue could flip that. I'm just hoping, without any actual basis, that they're going to extend him. It's hard for me to even process alternate scenarios right now.
  19. nova_twins
    I was at the 2nd Baltimore game... what really stuck out was how often Twins' batters don't even try to hit the ball hard. Guys like Span and Mauer like to be patient and work the count, but a lot of times they get into 2-strike counts, between borderline pitches, fouls, etc. The emphasis on making contact really hurts in those situations because they prefer making weak contact to trying to actually hit the ball hard. The result is just a bunch of groundouts. Heck, Span didn't even pull the ball once in batting practice. I think the problem is more organizational but Vavra certainly is part of that.
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