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Minnesota’s front office has accumulated veteran players in recent seasons to add a layer of roster depth. There have been hits (Willi Castro, Michael A. Taylor, Donovan Solano) and misses (Joey Gallo, Chris Archer, Dylan Bundy). The team has also shown a propensity to hang on to these veteran players well past their expiration date, which can be frustrating for fans. It’s only one month into the 2024 season, but some players have failed to meet expectations. Have the Twins learned from past mistakes, or will the front office fall into their old habits?
6. Willi Castro, UTIL - rWAR: 0.6
Castro has one year of arbitration eligibility remaining, but he will get expensive, with an estimated salary of over $5 million. It seems unlikely the Twins will offer him arbitration at that amount, unless his performance significantly improves. Last season, Castro had a career year with a 107 OPS+, 33 steals, and the ability to play six different defensive positions. His 2024 season started slowly, to say the least, with a .431 OPS through his first 16 games. However, Castro ended the month as one of the team’s hottest hitters, with a .986 OPS over his last 12 games. Castro built up enough equity last season that it would take a massive slump for the team to move on from him.
Likelihood to Be Let Go: Low
5. Caleb Thielbar, LHP - rWAR: -0.3
Thielbar is in his final year of arbitration eligibility, pitching in his age-37 season. He is also the most expensive bullpen arm this season, just north of $3 million. Previously, Thielbar was on the brink of retirement, but there is little doubt that he saved a struggling Twins bullpen during the 2023 campaign. His injury held him back at the start of the year, but Minnesota’s coaches trusted him enough to put him in save situations before Jhoan Durán returned from the IL. The bullpen has been one of the team’s strengths this season, and there have been some tough decisions regarding roster spots. For now, Thielbar is more than safe, as one of the team’s veteran late-inning options.
Likelihood to Be Let Go: Low
4. Kyle Farmer, IF - rWAR: -0.3
It was somewhat surprising for the Twins to bring back Farmer this season with a $6.3 million arbitration figure. Many believed Minnesota’s front office would attempt to trade him this winter because of the lack of shortstops available on the free agent market. Instead, the club held on to the veteran to provide depth, but he is a little bit of a luxury item on a team that cut $30 million in payroll. He has struggled mightily on both sides of the ball to start the year with a 30 OPS+ and a Fielding Run Value in the 64th percentile. His most significant contribution this season has been introducing the home run sausage. When they need to replace the sausage, his protection runs out.
Likelihood to Be Let Go: Medium
3. Carlos Santana, 1B - rWAR: -0.3
Santana’s signing was interesting, because he seemed to fit a role where the Twins had other options. Still, the front office loves depth, and he has previously tortured the Twins. Santana got off to a horrendous start, posting a .347 OPS in his first 16 games. Thankfully, he ended April on a hot streak, going 11-for-38 (.290 BA) with two doubles and four home runs across 10 games. His defense at first continues to be strong, with an OAA in the 83rd percentile. Minnesota doesn’t need him to play at an All-Star level in his age-38 season, but they can’t afford to have an offensive black hole at first base.
Likelihood to Be Let Go: Medium
2. Jay Jackson, RHP - rWAR: 0.1 WAR
Jackson was among a handful of relievers the Twins’ front office targeted this winter to upgrade a group that struggled through portions of 2023. His career has undergone many ups and downs, with parts of multiple seasons played in Japan. In mid-April, his ERA ballooned over 5.00 as he has allowed earned runs in five of his first 11 appearances. Jackson continues to miss bats, with a 32.0 Whiff% and a 28.1 K%, but he has given up too much hard contact (43.9 Hard-Hit%). The Twins have multiple bullpen arms and are performing well, so Jackson needs to prove he can fill his role in the team’s reliever hierarchy.
Likelihood to Be Let Go: Medium
1. Manuel Margot, OF - rWAR: -0.5 WAR
Margot’s role with the team may increase with Byron Buxton leaving Wednesday’s game with an injury. However, giving Buxton's at-bats to another player might be in the team’s best interest. Margot's OPS is nearly 160 points lower than his career mark, and his 56 OPS+ is nearly unplayable, even if he continued to be a strong defender. His sprint speed dropped from 28.3 last season to 27.0 in 2024, which explains his defensive decline (-1 OAA, -1 Fielding Run Value). Margot has a $12 million team option for next year that the Twins won’t pick up. For now, he needs to find a way to provide some value, or there is no reason for him to be on the roster.
Likelihood to Be Let Go: High
How would you rank the players listed above? Will the team consider dropping veteran players this season? Leave a comment to start the discussion.
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