Do the Twins Need to Shuffle the Roster?

[Cody Pirkl]

The Twins' offense has been hard to watch so far in 2024, and nothing will fix it other than the lineup making more contact and hitting with runners in scoring position. There is one roster change the Twins can consider for help.

Image courtesy of Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports

The Twins are not shy about preferring platoon advantages, and they’ve built their team to include several players that help them set these matchups. A wrench was thrown into the plans when Royce Lewis was immediately injured, and the Twins were left with few options to replace him. So far, it appears they’ve chosen the wrong one. 

 

The Twins' choice to call up Austin Martin was perfectly understandable. He’s a versatile, athletic, right-handed hitter whose skillset should complement much of the Twins lineup. He's earned a shot at the MLB level. While he couldn’t play third base to replace Lewis, Kyle Farmer could and Martin could find himself platooning with Julien at second base. We could look back in a few years and see that Martin has become a solid contributor to the team, but the way the roster is currently utilized suggests the time may not be suitable for him to make his debut.

For starters, Martin’s usage isn’t doing him any favors. He’s made one start in center field with three plate appearances. Not only is he not playing every day, but he’s just a “break glass in case of emergency” player. He appears to be the number one option for pinch-running and the last option when it comes to an opportunity at the plate. This was immediately obvious when Martin pinch-ran against the Royals and was pinch-hit for by Manny Margot in his first game. The Twins burned a roster spot to replace Martin with another right-handed, high-contact hitter. His one start in which Brady Singer shut out the Twins was his one chance to show his skills at the plate.

 

 

Speaking of Manny Margot, the Twins' usage of him to begin the season has been questionable. He has yet to start a game, regardless of the handedness of the pitcher the Twins face. These opportunities so far have gone to Castro and Martin. Instead, Margot, a career .255/.308/.384 hitter, has pinch-hit in five of the Twins' six games to begin the season. 

Even though Margot posted a .665 OPS against left-handed pitching in 2023, these are the matchups he should be put in. The problem is that they’re solely coming off the bench when the “pinch-hit tax” comes into play. Even if Margot can perform at his career .760 OPS level against southpaws in these spots, he’s not exactly the caliber of hitter that will strike fear into the hearts of opposing pitchers. Also worth noting is that some of these substitutions happen early enough that Margot gets at least one more plate appearance, often against a high-leverage right-handed reliever. So what other choice do the Twins have?

Belief in Jose Miranda may be at an all-time low, but he’s a better roster fit for the current situation, and he’s showing flashes so far in St. Paul. Not only is he looking strong at the plate with exit velocities to match, but he’s begun playing third base again. It was assumed that the Twins didn’t see him as an option at the hot corner anymore, but perhaps that’s not the case.

 

 

Margot would then become one of the primary outfielders with a left-handed pitcher on the mound, a role that would set him up for more success than seeing 100% of his plate appearances off the bench. While it would be a bummer for Martin to go back down, he would at least return to playing every day until he’s needed for a more regular role. 

It may be picking nits when the current offensive struggles are apparent, but there’s too much redundancy on the Twins bench. It’s not setting up the players involved for success and isn’t doing anything to help the Twins offensively. It may already be time to admit that the initial response to the Lewis injury needs to be adjusted, and Jose Miranda may be just the lever the Twins need to pull.

 

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[Patzky]

I really was hoping they would have called Miranda up to begin with. Is this going to be the 2024 version of letting Wallner stay hot in St Paul while the parent team flounders offensively? It's not hard to see the parallels.

 

[killertwinfan]

I think our best players are up.  They need to play better. Terrible AB’s in high leverage situations have become a theme for this team.  Work on approach and mindset.  Not so far this year but we hit a lot of HR’s but our RBI totals are down. 

[chpettit19]

"Speaking of Manny Margot, the Twins' usage of him to begin the season has been questionable. He has yet to start a game, regardless of the handedness of the pitcher the Twins face. "

Manuel Margot was the Twins opening day, starting DH.

[Doctor Gast]

I agree that Martin needs to play more often, the problem with the Twins isn't Martin. Martin has been mainly used as a pinch runner which he excels in. IMO bringing Martin up was the right call because #1 it gets Martin's feet wet and #2 Farmer is a much better 3Bman. I also agree that Miranda deserves to be called up but his chance is linked to Santana not at 3B. But IMO should have some opportunity there but not on a regular bases.

[Doctor Gast]

40 minutes ago, killertwinfan said:

I think our best players are up.  They need to play better. Terrible AB’s in high leverage situations have become a theme for this team.  Work on approach and mindset.  Not so far this year but we hit a lot of HR’s but our RBI totals are down. 

Agreed, IMO we have modeled our approach after the Yankees, who as an whole have floundered even though they hit a lot of HRs. Unfortunately, the Yankees have waken up changed their approach, fired their batting coach, hired Rowson (who works individually w/ players to bring out their strong points) & traded for SOTO (who walks more than he SO that has carried the team even when Judge isn't hitting); yet the Twins remain basically unchanged. PS- IMO Popkins is a fine batting coach the problem is the approach.

[Fezig]

12 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

Agreed, IMO we have modeled our approach after the Yankees, who as an whole have floundered even though they hit a lot of HRs. Unfortunately, the Yankees have waken up changed their approach, fired their batting coach, hired Rowson (who works individually w/ players to bring out their strong points) & traded for SOTO (who walks more than he SO that has carried the team even when Judge isn't hitting); yet the Twins remain basically unchanged.

The only reason the Twins will have any success has nothing to do with the guy the writes out the lineup card. You are 100% correct in management having the wrong philosophy. Instead of cramming a "one size fits all approach" it might be best to try to utilize each players strength and write the lineup according to those strengths. 

I still remember reading years ago when Ted Williams ask Mo Vaughn why he let the first pitch go that was right down the middle. And Mo gave some "make the pitcher work" response or something in the vein. Ted told him to stop doing that because that might be the only pitch he sees that he can hit. If Ted Williams tells you something about hitting, you listen. And i'm pretty sure Ted didn't mention exit velo.

[FlyingFinn]

16 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

Agreed, IMO we have modeled our approach after the Yankees, who as an whole have floundered even though they hit a lot of HRs.

I believe the Twins have tried to lower their SO's this year, understanding that HR's will be lower. The trouble is that we have only lowered homers so far. I think Taylor isn't here because the Twins wanted less SO's. But Margot is worse so far. The four worst % SO guys so far are Buxton, Wallner, Castro and Margot. Buxton is streaky so he will improve. Wallner has to hit homers and SO's will come with that. Castro and Margot have to put the bat on the ball more. The lowest OPS guys on the team are Kepler, Farmer, Vazquez, Margot and Castro. That's all of our bench, 3B and RF. SSS so far. The players just have to improve.

[JD-TWINS]

Not sure the logic or fit for Miranda on 26-man?

Miranda started playing 3B about 5 days ago….his playing there or anywhere else doesn’t get Margot into the line-up with any regularity. He’s a platoon guy from the right side with less flexibility than Martin. He’s not in front of Santana at 1B v. LH pitching. He’s at least a month away at 3B, with any level of confidence…..IMO.

They NEED Larnach or Lee v. RH pitching ASAP as DH or in the field, shifting Kirilloff or Buxton or Castro to DH.

I’d like Kirilloff at 1B ……….Castro in CF or DH to get Santana out of the left side batter’s box. Santana is hapless from left side!

 

 

Offensive problems lie with Wallner - Farmer - Vazquez - Kepler - Santana - Margot

Jeffers - Julien - Castro will be OK with another 5-10 games.

Buxton - Correa - Kirilloff are all healthy & performing.

[Five minute major]

The number of terrible AB's from an approach standpoint is very alarming.   Kepler looks absolutely lost at the plate.  Outside of Kiriloff and one bomb from Jeffers, this offense has been as bad as I can remember.  Unwatchable.   Compounded by the fact we are not facing Walter Johnson every night.    

[Eris]

The team has continued last year’s ineptitude with RISP primarily because they emphasize power over contact. (Imagine Steve Kwan on this team) Interesting that they have chosen pinch hit for Martin with RISP and needing a run or two. Martin is the one player on the team who is a contact hitter. Currently only Kirilloff and Correa are producing at or above expectations. The team won’t win many games with only two offensive contributors.  I expect Julien and Jeffers to eventually come around. Castro and Kepler had near career years last year and Wallner has struggled since spring training. It might be a long season for the Twins faithful. 

[saviking]

1 hour ago, FlyingFinn said:

I believe the Twins have tried to lower their SO's this year, understanding that HR's will be lower. The trouble is that we have only lowered homers so far. I think Taylor isn't here because the Twins wanted less SO's. But Margot is worse so far. The four worst % SO guys so far are Buxton, Wallner, Castro and Margot. Buxton is streaky so he will improve. Wallner has to hit homers and SO's will come with that. Castro and Margot have to put the bat on the ball more. The lowest OPS guys on the team are Kepler, Farmer, Vazquez, Margot and Castro. That's all of our bench, 3B and RF. SSS so far. The players just have to improve.

I'd like to forgot about Margot. Never liked that signing but I hope he proves me wrong. Nice to see Correa playing up to his salary this year. 

[Whitey333]

I get a kick out of how the announcers on Thursday almost justify the Twins poor play by their early schedule.  They said they had a long spring training( yes finishing with the second worst record in all of spring training makes it long) then had to open in Kansas City and Milwaukee before returning home.  Good grief!  The Guardians had just flown in from playing on the west coast.  They had spring training too I believe lol.  Then they had to come to Target field for the Twins home opener in front of a big crowd and they hadn't had a day off like the Twins.  They outplayed our Twi s.  Come on, stop with the lame excuses.

[LA Vikes Fan]

I don’t think the issue is Miranda vs. Martin. The issue is Wallner looks lost at the plate (6 SOs in 12 PAs hitting .125) and Kepler is actually worse (.059 BA, .118 OPS). Normally you say it’s early and they’re just off to a slow start, and that may turn out to be the case. But it might not. It’s worrisome because neither has shown a lot in the past. Wallner had a great September last year, a lot of it against weak pitching as teams tried out, young players, but he was horrific in the playoffs, awful in spring training, and abysmal so far this year. Kepler was bad for basically 3 1/2 years and then had a great second half of last season. While I don’t think either players this bad, the bottom line is they may not improve a whole lot and that puts a serious hole in the lineup since I think a plan for them hit in the five and seven holes.

I would shake things up but slightly differently. I would send Martin down and bring up Miranda. I would give Wallner about another week and then send him down if he can’t get going, telling him he’s back as soon as he gets it going AAA. I would bring up Keirsey and give him a shot in left field in a platoon with Margot, who only plays vs. left-handed pitching and does not come in when the opposition puts in left-handed reliever. Miranda plays DH and third base with Castro at 3B some and Farmer back on the bench most nights, playing second base against left-handed stars only. Farmer cannot hit much and does not hit right handed pitching at all. This does sacrifice a little defense at third base but we need offense more. The only way they’re going to get it is to give the guys who are hitting it. AAA shot. By the way, I would also sit Santana and play Kiriloff every day at first base or sit Kepler. 

[Parfigliano]

1 hour ago, Eris said:

The team has continued last year’s ineptitude with RISP primarily because they emphasize power over contact. (Imagine Steve Kwan on this team) Interesting that they have chosen pinch hit for Martin with RISP and needing a run or two. Martin is the one player on the team who is a contact hitter. Currently only Kirilloff and Correa are producing at or above expectations. The team won’t win many games with only two offensive contributors.  I expect Julien and Jeffers to eventually come around. Castro and Kepler had near career years last year and Wallner has struggled since spring training. It might be a long season for the Twins faithful. 

Kwan wouldnt be on the team because he doesnt prioritize power over contact

[joefish]

Like Correa said last stinky spring, just wait til June when it warms up. 

Yadda, yadda, yadda. 

[Linus]

Not much they can do about it now. They tried to tweak the lineup in the off season the additions haven’t done much. While many of us want a more balanced lineup it’s clear that Falvine are all in on the homers over all else philosophy.   As suggested up thread I think there is merit in having a more individualized approach. 

[Mike Sixel]

Tiny,tiny, sample size. So, no. 

[gman]

After 6 games? Should we expect them to have a 10 lead?

[jimbo92107]

Heads, you swing at the first pitch; tails, you hold up. Either way, you shift your weight and bring your hands forward as if you're going to swing.

During the at bat: Heads, you swing flat; tails, uppercut. Either way, your stance stays the same, until after the pitcher's in his motion.

Flipping a coin is a great way to stop the opposition from guessing what your hitters are going to do. They can't know, because you don't know either. Batters still won't swing at pitches far from the zone, and there's still the pitcher's cat and mouse how how he throws. However, randomizing some elements of hitter behavior takes away some of the opposition's planning. 

If the league thinks the Twins are swinging flat for average, they'll throw a lot of sinkers. If they think the Twins are swinging for the fences, watch for a lot of high fastballs. If there is no pattern...

As a manager, you could announce that the team is experimenting with randomized swing patterns. Even make a show of flipping coins in the dugout. Even if you're not doing it, maybe it'll mess with a few heads out there. 

[darin617]

Pump the brakes a bit. The only change I would like to see is players actually understanding that not every player is a power hitter. This launch angle garbage is ruining the game. Players are striking out like crazy because of it. If only they could focus more on getting hits the team would improve.   

[USAFChief]

Martin for Miranda is shuffling deck chairs on the Titanic.

They needed to shuffle the roster this past winter. 

 

[DJL44]

13 hours ago, Fezig said:

I still remember reading years ago when Ted Williams ask Mo Vaughn why he let the first pitch go that was right down the middle. And Mo gave some "make the pitcher work" response or something in the vein. Ted told him to stop doing that because that might be the only pitch he sees that he can hit. If Ted Williams tells you something about hitting, you listen. And i'm pretty sure Ted didn't mention exit velo.

Quote

Hit it hard, not hit it to the left or not hit it over here. Hit the ball hard. That's all I really ever thought about, just hit the ball hard. - Ted Williams

Ted Williams Looks Back | Baseball Hall of Fame

[DJL44]

5 hours ago, darin617 said:

Pump the brakes a bit. The only change I would like to see is players actually understanding that not every player is a power hitter. This launch angle garbage is ruining the game. Players are striking out like crazy because of it. If only they could focus more on getting hits the team would improve.   

Quote

In his book, The Science of Hitting, Williams suggested an upward swing path that aligns the bat path and pitch path for a better chance of contact – about 5 degrees for a fastball and 10-to-15 degrees for a curveball.

Are Ted Williams’ Hitting Philosophies Still Relevant Based on the Data? | Community Blog (fangraphs.com)

[Rosterman]

Well, at least bthe Twins didn't advance 0-17 with 9K's Severino to be the temporary third baseman....yet.

[SteveLV]

The time to "shuffle" the lineup was during the offseason when they decided to reduce payroll 20% and made mediocre signings and traded away a decent hitter for an old, lame-armed pitcher who was being paid by 2 different organizations to just go away and a bullpen arm and a prospect.

Why the Twins were projected to win the division is a mystery.  Regression was inevitable.

[Larry Janisewski]

On 4/6/2024 at 10:16 AM, Five minute major said:

The number of terrible AB's from an approach standpoint is very alarming.   Kepler looks absolutely lost at the plate.  Outside of Kiriloff and one bomb from Jeffers, this offense has been as bad as I can remember.  Unwatchable.   Compounded by the fact we are not facing Walter Johnson every night.    

In the last 2 games vs Cleveland they have had a total of:

Hits: 9

Runs: 3

K's: 29

LOB: 49

You can's score if you don't put the ball in play.

Twins have started 2 players each day with a batting average of over .235.

[#3Killer]

On 4/6/2024 at 7:43 AM, Doctor Gast said:

Agreed, IMO we have modeled our approach after the Yankees, who as a whole have floundered even though they hit a lot of HRs. Unfortunately, the Yankees have waken up changed their approach, fired their batting coach, hired Rowson (who works individually w/ players to bring out their strong points) & traded for SOTO (who walks more than he SO that has carried the team even when Judge isn't hitting); yet the Twins remain basically unchanged. PS- IMO Popkins is a fine batting coach the problem is the approach.

Poppen is awful!!!!! Twins hitters were a DISASTER through July last year and the only reason why they surged were Lewis, Julian and Wallner up from AAA carrying their AAA skills with them. Looks like Poppen has them all screwed up already this year. 

[Cody Pirkl]

On 4/6/2024 at 11:08 AM, Mike Sixel said:

Tiny,tiny, sample size. So, no. 

It's not about performance, it's about all of the players being used in a way that makes the most sense.