Padres 8, Twins 1: Nando Goes Nanners, Padres Sweep Twins

Box Score:
Starting Pitcher: Bailey Ober: 5 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 3 K (87 Pitches, 54 Strikes, 62%)
Home Runs: Brooks Lee (20)
Bottom 3 WPA: Jeff Hoffman (-0.32), Josh Bell (-0.09), Victor Caratini (-0.07)
Win Probability Chart (Via BaseballSavant):

Last week, I described Sunday's loss to the Phillies, in which the team biffed a 5-0 lead to get swept at home, as the nail in the coffin of the season. What I did not take into account was that the American League is truly garbage, and that the Atlanta Braves would play like garbage. The Twins vaulted into the last Wild Card slot with the sweep of Atlanta—then proceeded to drop the first two against San Diego.

The Padres are a good, serious team with talent throughout their roster. They are also opportunistic, as they showed in rallying from three runs down late in Saturday's game. To salvage a game from the series, the Twins turned to Bailey Ober on the mound, with San Diego countering with Walker Buehler.

This wasn't vintage Buehler, but he has been healthy enough to make all his starts for the Padres. His ERA remains high and his under-the-hood numbers aren't great. He allowed a leadoff single to Luke Keaschall to start his afternoon. But a hobbled Byron Buxton grounded into a double play, and Buehler went on to face the minimum through three innings while consistently staying underneath the Twins' bats.

Ober looked good early, generating some whiffs on his changeup and slider while staying out of the middle of the zone. The only hard contact was off the bat of Fernando Tatis Jr., who looks unconscious right now. He lined out to lead off the bottom of the first at 115 MPH. Ober worked around a couple of walks to cruise into the third, when Tatis got him for a solo home run that was 10 MPH less firm off the bat than his earlier lineout. It was a hanging slider, and Tatis is not missing that pitch right now.

Buxton managed a bloop hit in the top of the fourth, but did not entertain the thought of stretching it into a double, something even a healthy-ish Buxton could have managed easily. He then chose not to run on a 3-2 pitch to Josh Bell, causing an inning-ending double play with Buehler clearly chasing grounders.

With Buehler cruising, it looked like it might be another slow death for the Twins lineup. He got the first two outs of the fifth inning, but Brooks Lee worked a 10-pitch at-bat that culminated with a laser to right field: a home run that tied the game and rattled the previously unshakeable Buehler.

You saw Ober take a deep breath after retiring Luis Rengifo in the bottom of the fifth. Tatis fell behind in the count, but worked back to 3-2 before lining a single at 109 MPH. At that point, I thought to myself, nice. Getting past Tatis without putting him immediately into scoring position or letting him leave the yard felt like a win. But Jake Cronenworth popped a ball up to no-man's land. Lee should have had it, but got turned around, and it fell between him and Alan Roden, putting two on for Manny Machado. Ober bore down and struck him out on a 74-MPH sweeper and got Ty France to fly out to end the threat. The escape didn't come as easily as it should have, but Ober still finagled it.

Kody Funderburk came on for the sixth, hwoever, and didn't have good control. He did induce a weak grounder off the bat of Jackson Merrill, but Kaelen Culpepper booted it. The Twins seemed to get a reprieve when Merrill was picked off leaving early, but Funderburk then walked Luis Campusano and Austin Hays before giving way to Jeff Hoffman. Hoffman, in turn, walked Xander Bogaerts, which brought the infield in. Rengifo then rifled a ball down the first-base line, just past a diving Royce Lewis, scoring two runs. That brought up Tatis, and if ever there was a time to walk a guy with a base open, this was the time.

But Hoffman is probably considered a good matchup against Tatis, given his elite slider. Tatis laced a slider into center field, scoring two more and putting the Padres squarely in the driver's seat. Anybody who has ever watched Tatis during a hot streak (or Barry Bonds, Bryce Harper, Aaron Judge etc.) knows that it's one thing to be a good matchup for a guy, and another to be a good matchup for that guy when he's this hot. Basketball teams know that when Steph Curry has hit five straight threes, you need to double him or get the ball out of his hands somehow, but in baseball we just have to watch our teams get bludgeoned and say, hey, it was the right call analytically.

The Padres added on against Travis Adams in the seventh, with Merrill homering to deep right and Bogaerts doubling past the glove of Culpepper to bring in Hays, who had drawn the seventh walk of the game for San Diego.

Furthering my point from earlier, Tatis homered off Taylor Rogers in the eighth. The hottest player in baseball with the platoon advantage against a veteran lefty playing out the string of his career? I would have been more surprised if he hadn't homered. He went 9-14 in this series, with more homers than strikeouts.

Stuff I'm Tracking:

• I wonder if Buxton is consciously avoiding going full speed, with the thought that his swing is getting closer. That is quite a gamble, since a) he remains in a prolonged slump results-wise b) the Twins need his speed and defense and c) Walker Jenkins is homering every other at-bat for the Saints, or so it seems.
• Ober looked good and probably could have gone six or seven innings, if not for Tatis's heroics. He nibbled, but his control was so good he could afford to, and the Padres made tons of weak contact against him as a result.
• Hoffman looks out of whack and seems to be emphasizing his slider more. It's a great pitch, but even a great pitch isn't great when it's predictable.
• Culpepper made two rough misplays at shortstop. After his error in the sixth, he allowed a ball to skip by him in the seventh, leading to the seventh run for San Diego.

What’s Next: The Twins head to Sacramento to take on the floundering A's. Zebby Matthews (7-8, 5.12 ERA) opposes Gage Jump (5-8, 4.83 ERA). Jump is a lefty, which tends to spell doom for the Twins' run-scoring prospects, but they are playing in Sacramento, one of the more lopsided parks in terms of favorability to hitters.

Postgame Interviews: Coming Soon
Bullpen Usage Chart: