The Twins Can't Afford to Wait on Byron Buxton Anymore

Byron Buxton was one of the biggest reasons for the Twins' success in the first half of the season. He earned his third career All-Star selection and entered the break leading Minnesota with a .904 OPS, 25 home runs and 3.0 fWAR. Since then, however, everything has changed. Buxton has been one of the worst players on the roster while dealing with a lingering hip injury. Now, the Twins have a decision to make about whether continuing to play him is actually helping the team.

Injuries have played a major role in Buxton's season. He began dealing with intermittent right hip soreness in May, which eventually forced him to miss the All-Star Game and spend time on the injured list in July. After a brief return to the lineup on July 20, Buxton reaggravated the hip on July 28 and received an injection. He returned for the Field of Dreams game on August 13 and has been in the lineup ever since, but the results since the break have been anything but encouraging.

In the 16 games Buxton has played since the All-Star break (with a two-week IL stint in the middle of that stretch), he's posted a .411 OPS with just one extra-base hit. He's also produced a team-worst -0.4 fWAR during that time. For a Twins team already struggling to consistently produce offensively, having one of its biggest stars performing at that level is a significant problem. His struggles go back even further than the IL stints. Since June 15, Buxton has a .585 OPS with just seven extra-base hits in 125 plate appearances.

The difficult part is figuring out exactly what's causing the struggles. Buxton has always been a streaky hitter, so it's hardly unprecedented for him to go through an extended cold stretch. He's also been one of the more injury-prone players in baseball, which makes it difficult to determine whether a struggling Buxton is simply in one of his slumps or whether something physical is preventing him from being himself. In this case, it appears to be a combination of the two, but there are enough signs to make it clear that his hip is still bothering him.

First, Buxton has not attempted a stolen base since the break, after attempting eight before the break. For a player whose speed is such an important part of his game, the complete absence of stolen base attempts is notable. He has also grounded into two double plays in his 16 games since the break. To put that in perspective, Buxton did not ground into a double play all last season. Neither statistic proves by itself that Buxton is injured, but when combined with his struggles at the plate, the eye test, and all that we know of his hip injury, it's pretty easy to connect the dots.

If this were simply a slump, the Twins would be wise to wait it out. Buxton has earned that patience; everyone knows what can happen when he gets hot. He's one of those players who can flip a switch and become one of the most dangerous hitters in baseball. A hot Buxton can carry an offense for weeks, and the Twins would be foolish to take that possibility away from themselves.

But this isn't a simple slump. If Buxton is playing through an injury, the Twins can't afford to assume that continuing to play him every day will eventually fix the problem. They don't know how long the hip will bother him; they could spend the rest of the season waiting for the healthy version of Buxton to return. As admirable as it is that Buxton continues to play through the injury because he wants to help his team, there comes a point where playing through it starts hurting them.

The Twins' offense is struggling, and right now no player is hurting the team more than their center fielder. That is not a criticism of Buxton's effort or his desire to play. It's the reality of what's happening on the field. The Twins are trying to win games with Buxton in the lineup, but they're not getting the production they need from him, and there's little evidence that his situation is improving.

What makes this decision more palatable is that the Twins have a natural replacement waiting at Triple-A. Walker Jenkins is doing everything possible to knock the door to the majors off its hinges. He's slashing .387/.457/.694 with a 1.151 OPS in 15 games in August in St. Paul. There's very little left for him to prove in Triple-A—although that has been said for the past three weeks. 

If the Twins had no capable replacement for Buxton in center field, continuing to play him would be much easier to defend. Instead, they have one of the best prospects in baseball playing at Triple-A and putting together one of the hottest stretches of his season. Making the swap with Buxton and handing center field to Jenkins full-time down the stretch would give Buxton an opportunity to properly recover, while giving the Twins another dynamic offensive player.

The timing makes the decision even more important. The Twins are currently two games back in the American League Wild Card race, and beginning this weekend, they're scheduled to play 15 consecutive games against division opponents. This is the part of the season where every game matters, and the Twins can't afford to sit around and hope that an injured player eventually gets healthy enough to start producing again. They need to play the players who give them the best chance to win right now.

Usually, that player is Buxton. The first half of this season, that player was Buxton. Unfortunately, Buxton isn't healthy right now, and the Twins aren't getting that version of him.

The Twins don't need to give up on Buxton. They just need to give him time to get healthy. At the same time, they need to take advantage of the opportunity sitting in Triple-A. Walker Jenkins is ready, Buxton is not himself, and the Twins are running out of time to wait for that to change.

What do you think the Twins should do with Byron Buxton? Leave a comment below and start the conversation!