Bring. Him. Home?

[Cody Pirkl]

The Miami Marlins appear willing to listen to trade offers on Luis Arráez, despite a great 2023 season with the team. Is there any scenario wherein Arráez returns to Minnesota?

Image courtesy of David Banks-USA TODAY Sports

There probably isn’t a single team in MLB who would say they don’t need Luis Arraez, who slashed .354/.393/.469 in 2023. With two years of team control left, he might not cost quite what the Marlins gave up to acquire him last season, but his price remains high. Now that the Marlins appear willing to part with him, is there any scenario in which the Twins bring him back?

When the Twins dealt Arráez last offseason, they were betting on him being a first baseman or DH, as his health had started to limit his range in the field. The Marlins thought of Arráez as at least a part-time second baseman, which is why they thought he was valuable enough to give up Pablo Lopez (plus two prospects) to acquire him. The Marlins followed through on their plan, but it didn’t pan out as expected.

Arraez had a positive Defensive Runs Saved at second base, but his Outs Above Average showed the Twins were correct to be concerned about his declining range. He played a career-high 1,124 innings at second base in 2023 and posted -10 OAA. For reference, Edouard Julien put up -3 OAA in about half as many innings at the position. The Marlins have probably arrived at the same conclusion the Twins reached a year earlier, hoping an offer presents them with more value than moving Arráez to first base moving forward.

The Twins and Arráez are an interesting fit at this point. Their low-contact, power-focused lineup makes him a solid complementary piece, as many fans pointed out while the strikeouts piled up in 2023. The Twins could certainly use help at first base, with Alex Kirilloff struggling against southpaws to start his career and having repeated injury concerns. Unfortunately, Arráez is another left-handed bat with platoon issues, and has plenty of health concerns of his own. 

It’s more likely that the Twins will look for a cheap, right-handed platoon bat to pair with Kirilloff, rather than pay what will still be a high price for Arráez in trade. In the wake of his second consecutive batting title, La Regadera is in line to make more than $11 million, which could be prohibitive given the Twins' payroll plans. Regarding the fit on the currently constructed roster, Arraez is tough to slot in regularly.

The Twins, of course, have been known to get creative on the trade market in the past. A team could call up the Twins and coax them into parting with someone like Kirilloff, or even Kepler--the latter of which would solve the money problem for them. Catcher is a glaring weakness for the Marlins, with Nick Fortes penciled in to start and the utterly fungible Christian Bethancourt signed to be the backup. Might they take on Christian Vázquez, to help balance the money exchanged, if the Twins offered an impressive offensive player under long-term team control? Could Arráez fit into a framework in which the Twins acquire one of the Fish's available starting pitchers, like Jesús Luzardo or Edward Cabrera?

As the season nears, Kiriloff's shoulder injury continues to give him trouble. As quiet as this winter has been, history says there could be some shakeups before Opening Day. 

A reunion with Luis Arraez is a fun idea, but in all likelihood, the Twins won’t see adding him back as a priority. Their most significant needs continue to be pitching, center field, and potentially a right-handed hitter, and they have no shortage of impact left-handed hitters in the lineup.

It’s hard to resist one of the most unique hitters of this era of baseball if he’s available. Is there any fit for Luis Arraez on the current roster? Should the Twins pay the price to bring him back to Minnesota? Let us know below!

View full article

[chpettit19]

I don't see any way they bring him back (even if many of us would love it), but what stood out to me here is the "As the season nears, Kiriloff's shoulder injury continues to give him trouble" comment. What are the details here? That would change what I think they should prioritize the rest of the way (Hoskins would move easily to the #1 slot on players I hope they acquire).

[TopGunn#22]

It's fun to dream but there really isn't a positional fit (which is what made him available to Miami in the first place) and one has to wonder...for an offensively challenged team like the Marlins, who reportedly are still looking for bats, why are they souring on Arraez already?  He had what will probably turn out to be his career year in 2023.  Why would they move him now?  

When you already have Julien with Lee on the way and Polanco soon to be traded, you can't afford to spend ANY draft capital on something that is duplicative.  It's NOT that Luis is without value or would be loved again if he returned.  We need pitching.  We just don't need a LH hitting, 2B/1B/DH at this time.  

[CRF]

Love the guy, but it's not gonna happen. 

[roger]

Love him, but it ain't gonna happen.

Question, Cody.  What is your source regarding AK's shoulder?

[mnfireman]

No. Just. No.

[Eris]

I thought is was reported on TD last year that before the trade the Twins had approached Arraez about an extension and he had declined. I am not sure if this was true. If so, what has changed. 
 

As much as a love watching Arraez bat, he doesn’t really have a defensive spot with the Twins. He could be a full time DH. I guess that would work. Last year Buxton was close to a full time DH when he can’t play in the field. 
 

From my perspective, I would not reverse the previous trade by trading Lopez back to the Marlins for Arraez. Several reasons. The Twins need pitching. Lopez has signed and extension, and we have plenty of players to play 2B. Also, Polanco may be an overall better player (when healthy) than Arraez. 

[Matthew Trueblood]

45 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

It's fun to dream but there really isn't a positional fit (which is what made him available to Miami in the first place) and one has to wonder...for an offensively challenged team like the Marlins, who reportedly are still looking for bats, why are they souring on Arraez already?  He had what will probably turn out to be his career year in 2023.  Why would they move him now?  

When you already have Julien with Lee on the way and Polanco soon to be traded, you can't afford to spend ANY draft capital on something that is duplicative.  It's NOT that Luis is without value or would be loved again if he returned.  We need pitching.  We just don't need a LH hitting, 2B/1B/DH at this time.  

I've seen this question in multiple places, and I think the implication (intentional or otherwise) is that Arráez might be damaged goods or not as valuable as he seems. I want to knock that notion down. He's available because he had such a good season that he's now going to cost a ton via arbitration, and because the Marlins made a change in baseball leadership, such that the guy now running the team isn't the person who traded for him a year ago, and because the new FO has a longer-term vision, as opposed to trying to get right back to the playoffs next year at all costs.

The questions about fit aren't misplaced. I just want to be clear that Arráez is available purely because the Marlins have an uncertain financial future into which he's an uneasy fit, and because of that change in the front office's top decision-makers--not because people aren't expecting him to continue to rake, or because his health is a question, or because of the perceived defensive limitations.

[Jocko87]

No. Stop. Please?

I realize it’s the quiet offseason and all but satire is for Friday’s.  I don’t know what it will take for this fan base to ever let anyone get away but we don’t live in that world anymore.  

The Marlins being ok with moving him just makes that trade better and better.  It also further illuminates what some were saying at the time-you don’t build a franchise around a single skill player. No matter how good that skill is.

Then, bring him back to where? Who is losing time for him? We could have weekly articles about how bad we miss Julien or Lee? 

Wait til you hear what Cincy is thinking about CES.

It’s ok for the stove to go cool for a while.  It’s ok for the website to have a few less articles when the temp is below zero.  

[Jocko87]

I’m also more concerned about the mention AKs shoulder than anything bringing Arraez back to Minnesota.

The real angle we should be looking at is that Arraez being on the market probably affects the Twins market looking to trade Polo or whoever.  If I’m a GM looking for a bat, I’m giving Arraez a very long look before I traded for Polo. 

Arraez is pretty close to perfect fit in Seattle. 

[Schmoeman5]

10 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

No. Stop. Please?

I realize it’s the quiet offseason and all but satire is for Friday’s.  I don’t know what it will take for this fan base to ever let anyone get away but we don’t live in that world anymore.  

The Marlins being ok with moving him just makes that trade better and better.  It also further illuminates what some were saying at the time-you don’t build a franchise around a single skill player. No matter how good that skill is.

Then, bring him back to where? Who is losing time for him? We could have weekly articles about how bad we miss Julien or Lee? 

Wait til you hear what Cincy is thinking about CES.

It’s ok for the stove to go cool for a while.  It’s ok for the website to have a few less articles when the temp is below zero.  

Apparently not. But I concur. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

I read it as, Kirilloff’s pretty major surgery a few offseasons ago (the same one that Kirk Gibson had) COULD be an issue at some point again at any point in his career.

That said, for right now today, I haven’t read anything to suggest it is an issue right now. 
 

If it is an issue right now, then getting a different full time 1b, or at least someone to platoon with Miranda, makes a world of sense. Maybe that’s Julien? Maybe that’s someone else.

But IF Kirilloff is feeling ok, then he should perform, right?

[darin617]

Story is not very accurate. The Marlins brought Arraez thinking that he could be the answer at second base,

This article said they brought him to play first and DH. He played 134 games at second, 12 at first, and 1 at DH. Is this just a lazy writer or AI?  Do your research.

 

[wabene]

2 hours ago, Cody Pirkl said:

As the season nears, Kiriloff's shoulder injury continues to give him trouble. As quiet as this winter has been, history says there could be some shakeups before Opening Day. 

This is not very clear. It was originally reported that Kirilloff had a bursa sack removed which was considered a very minor procedure. When they cut him open they were very pleased this was all that was necessary. He was expected to be full go this spring. At least that's what I remember. 

[mikelink45]

Maybe we can bring back Johann Santana too.  No we will not pay the price.  As much as I would love to have him come back - imagine - batting average champ AL - NL - AL!  

Let's hope there is some real Twins news soon. 

[Unwinder]

I hope we bring him on as a free agent DH as a decorated veteran near the end of his long and illustrious career when our whole roster looks completely different than it does now. This would be after we've won two more World Series and are rebuilding and honestly need something to get excited about.

[Cap'n Piranha]

It should also be pointed out that the original report says “might”.  I assume every team always “might” be willing to listen on any given player.  The Braves might be willing to listen on Acuna if you offer Julien, Lewis, Jenkins, Lee, Duran, and Lopez (while paying his full salary).

To me, this sounds a lot like a new FO signaling they are open for business, but it’s not a fire sale.  As such, I have no idea why the Twins would devote any portion of their limited resources to acquiring a player whom would not have a defensive home, and costs the same with no additional control over a potentially superior player already on roster (Polanco).

[chpettit19]

44 minutes ago, darin617 said:

Story is not very accurate. The Marlins brought Arraez thinking that he could be the answer at second base,

This article said they brought him to play first and DH. He played 134 games at second, 12 at first, and 1 at DH. Is this just a lazy writer or AI?  Do your research.

 

"When the Twins dealt Arráez last offseason, they were betting on him being a first baseman or DH, as his health had started to limit his range in the field. The Marlins thought of Arráez as at least a part-time second baseman, which is why they thought he was valuable enough to give up Pablo Lopez (plus two prospects) to acquire him. The Marlins followed through on their plan."

The article does not say they brought him in to play first or DH, it says the Twins were betting on him being a 1B or DH and the Marlins thought he could play "at least a part-time second base." So I'd say the writer wasn't lazy and did do at least a little research.

[chpettit19]

47 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I read it as, Kirilloff’s pretty major surgery a few offseasons ago (the same one that Kirk Gibson had) COULD be an issue at some point again at any point in his career.

That said, for right now today, I haven’t read anything to suggest it is an issue right now. 
 

If it is an issue right now, then getting a different full time 1b, or at least someone to platoon with Miranda, makes a world of sense. Maybe that’s Julien? Maybe that’s someone else.

But IF Kirilloff is feeling ok, then he should perform, right?

His surgeries 2 and 3 years ago were for his wrist, this article mentions his shoulder (the one he had surgery on at the end of the season). I don't think the writer was referring to his wrist surgeries as something that COULD still be an issue at some point. That's why a few of us are questioning why they'd suggest his shoulder is still giving him problems.

[Cory Engelhardt]

23 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

His surgeries 2 and 3 years ago were for his wrist, this article mentions his shoulder (the one he had surgery on at the end of the season). I don't think the writer was referring to his wrist surgeries as something that COULD still be an issue at some point. That's why a few of us are questioning why they'd suggest his shoulder is still giving him problems.

Agreed. It would be nice to know what is going on, if something is going on still

[DocBauer]

A pair of wrist surgeries SEEM to have fixed AK's lingering issue that was holding him back. He was a fine hitter with an e en better approach in 2023 once he was back, and then the power started to come.

As stated, his shoulder injury...while painful I'm sure, and undoubtedly affected him...has been reported as relatively minor as these things go. Personally, I haven't heard so much as a whisper from anywhere that he's having lingering issues with it.

With Polanco, Julien, and Lee all still on hand as options (MAYBE Martin) plus Farmer and Castro as depth pieces, why would we be looking to add another 2B/1B/DH option with what's on hand and still needing to, hopefully, add to the rotation?

And that's not a shot at Arraez, who is a wonderful ballplayer. But where's the fit? What's the cost to add him back AND still add an arm?

Absolutely not practical. 

[darin617]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

"When the Twins dealt Arráez last offseason, they were betting on him being a first baseman or DH, as his health had started to limit his range in the field. The Marlins thought of Arráez as at least a part-time second baseman, which is why they thought he was valuable enough to give up Pablo Lopez (plus two prospects) to acquire him. The Marlins followed through on their plan."

The article does not say they brought him in to play first or DH, it says the Twins were betting on him being a 1B or DH and the Marlins thought he could play "at least a part-time second base." So I'd say the writer wasn't lazy and did do at least a little research.

Then why did he play second base like over 95% of the time if they were betting on him being a first baseman or DH? 

[sweetmusicviola16]

Arraez is interesting, but I expect nothing to come about as far as a Twin return. At least not this year anyway.

Kiriloff, now that is concerning. Though tbh not a surprise at all. The guy is one injury after another. Worse than Buxton actually.

[DJL44]

2 hours ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

To me, this sounds a lot like a new FO signaling they are open for business, but it’s not a fire sale.  As such, I have no idea why the Twins would devote any portion of their limited resources to acquiring a player whom would not have a defensive home, and costs the same with no additional control over a potentially superior player already on roster (Polanco).

I think it is pretty clear Arraez is a better baseball player than Polanco right now. I'd trade both Kirilloff and Polanco for Arraez and stick him back at 1B where he was good defensively. I'd even add a minor leaguer to sweeten the deal.

[Nashvilletwin]

Yeah, there’s no place for a player like Arraez on the Twins. I mean, we’d much rather have Kiriloff at 1B.  And having a 0.400 OBP is not good enough to compete with our current DH candidates.  Besides, he strikes out way less often than what we expect from our hitters.  Even though we wouldn’t expect him to play 2B, even as a temporary fill in he’d be way too much of a liability to merit having his bat in the lineup at all. Besides, he’s really only a platoon player at this point. The fact that the fans love him doesn’t matter at all as well.

We really should have a sarcasm font on the TD.

If we could acquire Arraez for a couple of ok prospects (think Schobel types) and throw in one or two Miranda or Larnach types,  we should do it in a nanosecond.  Polanco or Arraez? Please, it’s not even close - on virtually every metric. Kiriloff vs. Arraez? Are you kidding?  Just on likely innings to be played, Arraez might play more than both of them combined. Neither can hold his jock at the plate.

Imagine Julien and Arraez leading off against a right handed starter - the pitcher might be looking at his 21st pitch and at least one man on base before getting to our #3 hitter.

Also, Arraez is a spark plug. He is an igniter.  He shows up in Miami and the Marlins make the playoffs. No correlation there.

I get it’s not going to happen   But to pretend he is not a fit for this team, or there’s no room for him as a Twin, or he’s not a good enough hitter or fielder to play 1B and DH instead of Kiriloff (or Polanco or anyone else we currently are contemplating for those roles) is ridiculous. 

 

 

[wabene]

32 minutes ago, darin617 said:

Then why did he play second base like over 95% of the time if they were betting on him being a first baseman or DH? 

"When the Twins dealt Arráez last offseason, they were betting on him being a first baseman or DH, as his health had started to limit his range in the field. The Marlins thought of Arráez as at least a part-time second baseman, which is why they thought he was valuable enough to give up Pablo Lopez (plus two prospects) to acquire him. The Marlins followed through on their plan."

[Parfigliano]

31 minutes ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

Arraez is interesting, but I expect nothing to come about as far as a Twin return. At least not this year anyway.

Kiriloff, now that is concerning. Though tbh not a surprise at all. The guy is one injury after another. Worse than Buxton actually.

Kirilloff worse then Buxton?  Kirilloff actually plays defensively at infield and outfield positions.  Let me know when Buxton plays defensively at any position.

[lecroy24fan]

Arraez becamse the starting 2B when the Marlins decided to put Chisolm in CF.

[MGX]

Of course Arraez would be a great add for the Twins, there isn't a team in the league couldn't use his bat. The question is what would he cost? I suspect the Marlins would expect a return bigger than the one they gave to get him & that likely wouldn't work for the Twins.

[Oldgoat_MN]

9th inning. The bases are loaded. There are 2 out. The game is tied, or maybe you're down by a run.

Wouldn't you rather have Arraez at the plate rather than a home run happy hitter who's carrying a batting average of .245?

Arraez is very valuable. 

With the quality infielders we have I don't see us paying him what he's worth. CC is the only infielder we have who isn't far cheaper than what Arraez is going to command. 

Still think of him in that 9th inning scenario, though.