Edouard Julien v. Brooks Lee: Whom Should the Twins Trade?

[Cody Pirkl]

The Twins have a perfect storm of factors this winter that could lead to a young position player being shipped out. Two players look like viable options, but which makes the most sense?

Image courtesy of Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports

The Twins have payroll limitations, starting pitching needs, and a logjam at second base. With Jorge Polanco's proximity to free agency limiting his trade value somewhat, trading one of Brooks Lee or Edouard Julien could be something the front office will consider before Opening Day. Each player has plenty of arguments for and against trading them.

Keeping Brooks Lee
The Twins were fortunate that Lee fell to them at 8th overall in the 2022 draft. Before Walker Jenkins, Lee was the undisputed top prospect in the system, and is still a top-20 global prospect by many rankings.

Lee is a versatile and well-rounded prospect who is likely to become at least a solid everyday MLB player. He’s also near-MLB-ready, after making it to Triple A in 2023 and should be a contributor at some point in 2024. With such a well-regarded prospect who isn’t far from making an MLB impact, it’s hard to blame anyone who wants to hold onto Lee and let his career play out in a Twins uniform.

Trading Brooks Lee
For a player with such a high floor. Lee lacks elite tools that jump off the page. That’s not to say that he can’t have an incredible baseball career, but many would argue that he lacks the ceiling of becoming an elite MLB player. There’s nothing wrong with a solid all-around regular, but if another team sees Lee’s ceiling as higher than the Twins front office thinks it is, they may look to cash in.

Lee also doesn’t have a track record of success at the MLB level. After dominating Double A for most of 2023, he was promoted to St. Paul, where he posted a .732 OPS. He also struggled against left-handed pitching for much of 2023, and if that trend continues, it might downgrade his ceiling a bit. Lee is still a fantastic prospect and one worth betting on, but there is a world where cashing in on his current value pays off, if it brings in a legitimate rotation piece and clears up the logjam at second base.

Keeping Edouard Julien
Julien’s elite eye at the plate and ability to crush mistakes resulted in a .263/.381/.459 slash line in his rookie season, 36 percent better than a league-average hitter. He slumped in August, but was a key contributor at the top of the Twins lineup through October, when he hit his first postseason home run. Julien looks like he can be one of the best leadoff hitters in all of baseball, and he’s under team control through 2029.

The main complaint against Edouard Julien is his defense, which was a significant problem when he debuted. He did improve as the season went on, even while moving to first base occasionally. He finished with -3 Outs Above Average at second base. If this sounds unmanageable, consider that Jorge Polanco had an identical mark in, and measures like Universal Zone Rating also have the two very close. Julien may not be the butcher in the field many consider him to be.

Trading Edouard Julien
Julien has been shielded from left-handed pitching for good reason. In 48 plate appearances against southpaws, he owns a .447 OPS in his young career. His walk rate of 17.2% against right-handed pitching drops to 4.2% against lefties. He may improve as he matures, but if he doesn’t, he'll go from stud leadoff man to needing to be platooned. This isn’t unmanageable, since he’d still be able to play almost every day, but it will tighten the roster if the Twins also plan to platoon Alex Kirilloff and Matt Wallner, assuming all three remain on the roster.

There’s also the Luis Arraez concern, as the bar to clear offensively becomes higher if Julien moves to first base. We can hope he’s made strides at second and will continue to do so, but if his defense becomes untenable, he only has first base and designated hitter on which to fall back. His rookie season output would slot in just fine at either spot, but his overall value would take a hit, and the Twins could look to capitalize on it before that value drop-off happens.

Prospects who haven’t debuted often get credit for what they may become. While pedigree is a worthwhile consideration, there’s little substitute for actual performance at the MLB level. The Twins have to weigh the performance of Julien in MLB against what they think Lee will be able to do when he makes his debut. For two players with such different styles, it’s a difficult task.

Can Lee approach the value provided by Julien’s offense alone? If not, how good must he be in other aspects of the game to bridge the gap? These are the questions the Twins would face if they dip into their infield logjam to acquire a high-end starting pitcher in trade. There may be other pieces they could move to acquire a significant addition to the rotation, but choosing between Lee and Julien is the most obvious. 

Should the Twins prefer to trade Brooks Lee for pitching, or Edouard Julien? Should they be open to trading either player this winter? Let us know below!

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[Riverbrian]

I often hear of these log jams. I have NEVER seen one. Every year... people talk of log jams... I have never seen one. It doesn't matter... there are multiple channels with shows about Bigfoot and they stay on the air due to audience support. 

If an actual log jam actually occurs... it would be a good thing. All teams should strive for log jams. I've never really seen one though. 

Polanco and Julien floating on the same river... what are we going to do? Quickly sound the alarm... everyone come a running... bring axes, chain saws and portable wenches.

Let's get all of those eggs into one basket as quickly as possible. 

 

[Cory Engelhardt]

Depends on the return. 
 

If you can get Jesus Luzardo in a package built around one of them, then make the deal 

[Riverbrian]

23 minutes ago, Cody Pirkl said:

Julien has been shielded from left-handed pitching for good reason. In 48 plate appearances

Riverbrian should not juggle.

He tried twice and 3 oranges were bruised. 

 

[miracleb]

"The proof is in the pudding."  if the Twins are getting offers, and they are getting more for one player over the other......that is the one you would probably take!  If something like this is done, it better be for at least a #2 pitcher........

[mbuehrer68]

I would take the proven commodity every time. We know Julien can hit. We don't know what Lee will be at the major league level. Give me those oppo homers at the top of the order. I loved watching Julien hit last year. Let's not trade that away.

[Karbo]

IMO everyone pretty much should be available if the price is right. With that being said, I don't see either one of these getting traded this off season. If I was the GM I would look at a package of someone like Martin and AK for a top of the rotation starter. Both can be replaced, and could offer a team some young controllable talent. 

[terrydactyls]

I have no opinion concerning which of these two players should be traded except to say I would prefer whomever returns the best pitcher. 

But I do have a tangential comment.  The many discussions on Twins Daily that include Brooks Lee have me very confused.  Sometimes I read that the Twins were:  A) "fortunate" that Lee was available at pick #8, and B) Lee was the premier bat of the 2022 draft.  And then I read in other articles that Lee should become a "solid" MLB player.  Or in some cases (such as this article), I read both.  Why would a team use the #8 pick of the draft on someone who may become "solid"?  Having a top ten draft pick doesn't happen often (except for Oakland).  I would hope that a team selecting that high would aim for a potential All-Star or MVP vote getter rather than "solid".  So I'm quite confused about the value of Brooks Lee as trade bait.  If he falls in the "the Twins were lucky" category, his value in a trade goes up.  If he is in the "solid" category, his value diminishes.  I guess that distinction becomes even more important regarding the teams with which the Twins are looking to trade.

[BigHurt35]

Keep both, they still have upside and are cheap.  Backend SP's are going to cost 15+ Million per year.  Keep the cheap hitters around to spend on pitching.  Hope Correa gets out of his contract to free up some money.  As of now Twins looking like they will be fighting to be in the top 4 of the division as Det and KC will be top dogs this season and Cleveland is still solid.  Twins have taken a big step back not filling any holes and have only made one signing a RP who could miss the season or career is done.  

[MGX]

I wouldn't look to trade either one unless there is an overwhelming offer.

In your writeup on Julien you mention his OAA at 2b as -3. I believe this is incorrect, he finished at 0 OAA. In fact the last three months of the season he posted +5 OAA after having a rough start the first three months.

 

[CRF]

Why do we have to get rid of either guy? I wouldn't even think about moving either one, unless we get a very good return. True, no one is untouchable, but please be smart about the deal. 

[Major League Ready]

10 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

I have no opinion concerning which of these two players should be traded except to say I would prefer whomever returns the best pitcher. 

But I do have a tangential comment.  The many discussions on Twins Daily that include Brooks Lee have me very confused.  Sometimes I read that the Twins were:  A) "fortunate" that Lee was available at pick #8, and B) Lee was the premier bat of the 2022 draft.  And then I read in other articles that Lee should become a "solid" MLB player.  Or in some cases (such as this article), I read both.  Why would a team use the #8 pick of the draft on someone who may become "solid"?  Having a top ten draft pick doesn't happen often (except for Oakland).  I would hope that a team selecting that high would aim for a potential All-Star or MVP vote getter rather than "solid".  So I'm quite confused about the value of Brooks Lee as trade bait.  If he falls in the "the Twins were lucky" category, his value in a trade goes up.  If he is in the "solid" category, his value diminishes.  I guess that distinction becomes even more important regarding the teams with which the Twins are looking to trade.

You make it sound as if a top 10 pick is an automatic all-star.  Gavin Cross who was picked right after Lee was below average in High A.  Jacob Berry who was picked 6th was below average at AA.  Elijah Green (pick #5) was below average in A ball.  He is only 20 years old but we are talking A ball. 

Some here are saying Lee might end up being above average but unspectacular.  Not ideal but a lot better than picking Cavaco over Carroll or Stott.

[kenneth frank]

Don't trade either one and solve the need for a starting pitcher by signing Jordan Montgomery. TV revenue or not this year, what about in a year or two when media revenues skyrocket? 

[Major League Ready]

The twins won't move either unless they get a great return.  I don't think the fact that after this year we have $70M invested in 3 players for the next several years and several players entering arbitration is being considered in these discussions.  We are going to need all young prearb talent.  Now, if a whole bunch of guys pan out and we are so fortunate as to have so much young talent we don't have roster spots, we should reevaluate.

[old nurse]

55 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Riverbrian should not juggle.

He tried twice and 3 oranges were bruised. 

 

Good thing you were not tying to juggle lit torches. 

[old nurse]

38 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

I have no opinion concerning which of these two players should be traded except to say I would prefer whomever returns the best pitcher. 

But I do have a tangential comment.  The many discussions on Twins Daily that include Brooks Lee have me very confused.  Sometimes I read that the Twins were:  A) "fortunate" that Lee was available at pick #8, and B) Lee was the premier bat of the 2022 draft.  And then I read in other articles that Lee should become a "solid" MLB player.  Or in some cases (such as this article), I read both.  Why would a team use the #8 pick of the draft on someone who may become "solid"?  Having a top ten draft pick doesn't happen often (except for Oakland).  I would hope that a team selecting that high would aim for a potential All-Star or MVP vote getter rather than "solid".  So I'm quite confused about the value of Brooks Lee as trade bait.  If he falls in the "the Twins were lucky" category, his value in a trade goes up.  If he is in the "solid" category, his value diminishes.  I guess that distinction becomes even more important regarding the teams with which the Twins are looking to trade.

The last top 10 to have success in Oakland was Barry Zito

unless you clue Murray’s success in contracts in football

[wabene]

I loved Luis Arraez, so fun to watch, but when he was traded for Lopez it immediately seemed like a good move to me. Luis' balky knees, lack of power, poor defense and late season fades (sapping his value in the playoffs) made me think we may have just sold high on a guy with warts. I don't feel that way about Julien. He also is very fun to watch. He has a look about him at the plate, fearless? I'll bet he is not the one pitchers want to face with the game on the line. The playoffs proved he is someone you can win with. The defense is just fine, get him focused on hitting leftys. Hard pass.

Lee? If he gets us a playoff caliber starter with multiple years of control, I can live with that. 

[specialiststeve]

Easy answer is neither should be dealt unless an ace is involved. 

Polanco is the logical choice and has been identified by most baseball insiders as one of the best trade options out there. With 2 years of reasonable cost, he should be very valuable to teams looking to improve at 2B. 

The timetable on this has been interesting as the majority of MLB sits on their hands. 

Other part of this is there is a VERY good chance that they hold onto Polanco until the trade deadline where teams are always looking for bats. Dangerous part of this is Polanco's injury history... trading at the height of his value before he gets hurt would be the best choice. 

Julian and Lee... Should be staying home. 

Juliian is clearly a GREAT leadoff guy and improved a ton on defense over the year. 

Lee has possible all-star potential... 

[AlGoreRythm]

42 minutes ago, BigHurt35 said:

Keep both, they still have upside and are cheap.  Backend SP's are going to cost 15+ Million per year.  Keep the cheap hitters around to spend on pitching.  Hope Correa gets out of his contract to free up some money.  As of now Twins looking like they will be fighting to be in the top 4 of the division as Det and KC will be top dogs this season and Cleveland is still solid.  Twins have taken a big step back not filling any holes and have only made one signing a RP who could miss the season or career is done.  

You believe KC and Detroit will be on top of this division in '24?

Talk about a hot take. I'm sure you can get great odds on those bets lol

I suppose when you start the post by advocating to trade Correa it should be expected lol

[DJL44]

50 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

Why would a team use the #8 pick of the draft on someone who may become "solid"?

I think the complete bust potential for the #8 pick is like 30%. An average starting position player in MLB getting paid during his cost-controlled seasons has like $80M in excess future value.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Keep both Lee and Julien. They both can be useful, productive 2B, 1B, 3B (Lee, not Julien at 3B). Kirilloff is questionable at 1B due to injuries. Polo is worth every penny of his contract.  But if the right offer comes along for Polo, take it. Stretch out the most promising AAA prospect pitchers. Keep juggling the AAA pitchers in the 5th /6th rotation spot until one (Varland, Raya, Caterino, Lewis, Festa) proves himself superior to the other 4 and then use that one as 5th SP while the others continue to improve at AAA. And hope no one gets injured. 

[tony&rodney]

17 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

The twins won't move either unless they get a great return.  I don't think the fact that after this year we have $70M invested in 3 players for the next several years and several players entering arbitration is being considered in these discussions.  We are going to need all young prearb talent.  Now, if a whole bunch of guys pan out and we are so fortunate as to have so much young talent we don't have roster spots, we should reevaluate.

Since the off season began, I have questioned whether the Twins could add any players of note via free agency due to payroll limitations and have noted the raises due to Pablo Lopez, Carlos Correa, and the host of guys who shall receive raises via arbitration. Sure it would be sweet to roster Rhys Hoskins and Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery but it does not look like that is a reality. Moving contracts doesn't necessarily help either because big dollars are unlikely to be doled out.

The post focuses on Lee or Julien as a choice but fails to raise a name being discussed, Lewis. I'm not a fan of moving any of the pre-arb players for the reasons in MLR's quote. The offense will need to step forward in a big way this season. The pitching is decent as is but the Twins would love to add a #2 starting pitcher.  If there is a big trade made for someone who can make a difference then the Twins may need to open up to the possibility of moving Lewis or Lee or Julien. The decision rests largely in the demands of another team versus the willingness of Falvey to move on a deal. Whenever anyone conceives of a trade they should imagine themselves as a huge fan of the other team to see what may be fair and reasonable to each team.

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, mbuehrer68 said:

I would take the proven commodity every time. We know Julien can hit. We don't know what Lee will be at the major league level. Give me those oppo homers at the top of the order. I loved watching Julien hit last year. Let's not trade that away.

I’ve been on the trade Julien’s blah defense, attitude, & strikeouts & keep Lee train…….thinking lately about the # of HR’s - high OBP - improving defense and think they probably need to keep Julien!

That said, I can’t get behind trading Lee either.

Cop out here but they both seem to have good value and are low $$ for years to come. Not trying to be outside the box with some fantasy  approach but it seems since we need a RH hitting Corner OF with pop and Lee potentially grades out well at 3B - they should leave Julien/Farmer at 2B for this year & Julien/Martin after ‘24 & move Lewis to LF - Wallner to RF - Lee at 3B.

Seems to solve the OF dilemma - the Lee/Julien dilemma - should they hang on to Keppler going forward dilemma.

Martin (fingers crossed) develops into a parallel guy to Castro with OF/IF capabilities.

[Fatbat]

There isn’t and wont be a log jamb in the Twins infield. Both Polanco and Farmer will be gone no later than 2025. 
Lee is 22 years old and the best infield prospect we have and will be here for a decade. He has a much higher ceiling than his detractors claim. Other than having problems hitting lefties, he is well above average at everything else. 
38 games is a very small sample size. Lets split hairs and look at his last 16 games. He was elite. At the end of his first full pro year, he was elite. At 22 years old in AAA.  

Julien is the Twins #1 hitter but no one will pay his market price until he hits lefties. and when he develops that skill, he will not be sold at any price be cause thats allstar status. 
Within a year or so, our IF will be AK, Lewis, Lee,C4 and Julien. The fab five. The best in MLB. 
 

The FO knows this. 
They will find another ace by trading other assets but not our toptier guys. 

[bird]

1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

Riverbrian should not juggle.

He tried twice and 3 oranges were bruised. 

 

Use apples, dummy.

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, mbuehrer68 said:

I would take the proven commodity every time. We know Julien can hit. We don't know what Lee will be at the major league level. Give me those oppo homers at the top of the order. I loved watching Julien hit last year. Let's not trade that away.

I’ve been on the trade Julien’s blah defense, attitude, & strikeouts & keep Lee train…….thinking lately about the # of HR’s - high OBP - improving defense and think they probably need to keep Julien!

That said, I can’t get behind trading Lee either.

Cop out here but they both seem to have good value and are low $$ for years to come. Not trying to be outside the box with some fantasy  approach but it seems since we need a RH hitting Corner OF with pop and Lee potentially grades out well at 3B - they should leave Julien/Farmer at 2B for this year & Julien/Martin after ‘24 & move Lewis to LF - Wallner to RF - Lee at 3B.

Seems to solve the OF dilemma - the Lee/Julien dilemma - should they hang on to Keppler going forward dilemma.

Martin (fingers crossed) develops into a parallel guy to Castro with OF/IF capabilities.

[Riverbrian]

2 minutes ago, bird said:

Use apples, dummy.

Rocco and Cody Pirkl took all the fruit from me. 

[Cody Pirkl]

1 hour ago, kenneth frank said:

Don't trade either one and solve the need for a starting pitcher by signing Jordan Montgomery. TV revenue or not this year, what about in a year or two when media revenues skyrocket? 

That's the preferred route, but much like calling for a $200m payroll, just because they should do it, doesn't mean they will. I just don't see them spending that kind of money and this is an alternative.

[Cody Pirkl]

14 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

There isn’t and wont be a log jamb in the Twins infield. Both Polanco and Farmer will be gone no later than 2025. 
Lee is 22 years old and the best infield prospect we have and will be here for a decade. He has a much higher ceiling than his detractors claim. Other than having problems hitting lefties, he is well above average at everything else. 
38 games is a very small sample size. Lets split hairs and look at his last 16 games. He was elite. At the end of his first full pro year, he was elite. At 22 years old in AAA.  

Julien is the Twins #1 hitter but no one will pay his market price until he hits lefties. and when he develops that skill, he will not be sold at any price be cause thats allstar status. 
Within a year or so, our IF will be AK, Lewis, Lee,C4 and Julien. The fab five. The best in MLB. 
 

The FO knows this. 
They will find another ace by trading other assets but not our toptier guys. 

Right now they have Julien and Polanco locked and loaded at 2B to begin 2024. Brooks Lee is in Triple-A, and I'd bet he's putting up numbers that warrant a promotion pretty early into the season. Austin Martin already put up such numbers in St. Paul last season (though he can play the OF). That's four legitimate options for second base, plus Kyle Farmer who can mix in, all either at the MLB level or knocking on the door. If you're looking to trade anyone, that group is the most obvious. 

It also costs something to get something. They're not getting an ace for a package of low level guys. If a team is trading a high end starter, it's to get something of significance in return. A trade calculator and say Brent Headrick, Yasser Mercedes, Jose Miranda, and Connor Prielipp gets you close in value to trading one top prospect, but why would a team have any interest in that return for what is probably one of their best starting pitchers?

[Woof Bronzer]

If we are at the point where self imposed spending constraints force us to trade young controllable talented players then seriously, what the heck we are doing here?  What is the plan?