Edouard Julien v. Brooks Lee: Whom Should the Twins Trade?

[TopGunn#22]

I'm not rushing into any trade for either Julien or Lee unless a young, controllable Ace is involved.  Someone like Luzardo for example.

I'm much more willing to deal Polanco at this point (before he gets hurt) in some sort of package for a decent SP, but one who would not necessarily be a bona fide #2 behind Lopez.  It's possible that Julien keeps hitting and his defense improves and he's worth MORE on the open market.  It's also possible that Lee's offense takes a big step forward in spring training and either at St. Paul or Target Field to begin the season raising Lee's value. 

There is no need to be hasty unless a #1 or #2 is being offered (using Luzardo as the example).  I WOULD be hasty with Polanco if the right deal came around. 

[Dawgzilla]

Neither....don't be stupid and give up good assets, let alone studs and potential 4-5 tool stars.

[JesusisLord7]

Trade Neither. I'd put Eddy Julien at 1st base. Brooks Lee to 2nd Base. I'd trade Alex Kirilloff. Eddy Julien to too good drawing walks and I'm certain he could adjust to 1st base. 

[Major League Ready]

2 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

That you didn't agree... On that we agree. 

I do appreciate your attempt to think like the front office thinks... I try to do that as well. 

The Twins clearly set up the roster for platoon utilization. This was their plan and they are not alone... The Giants and Dodgers are a couple of other teams that platoon at the extreme level of the Twins.

However... in the end. The careful off-season planning of a lefty handcuffed to a righty didn't last long. The opening day roster plans were blown a part before April was done. Solano the off-season planned short side platoon guy ended up with the third most AB's on the team. Castro the 26th guy on the opening day roster was 4th in AB's. Castro got 114 AB's against lefties despite a .636 OPS against those left handers but at least he could swing from the right handed batters box when producing that.

All of these best laid plans off season plans to have a lefty here and a righty here are blown apart quickly as soon the injury train leaves the station. 

Yet through it all... no matter if takes adding Jordan Luplow to the roster... it was the young left handed hitters with entire futures in front of them who remained punished by strict platooning consistently like the world falls apart if they are allowed to face Sean Manaea.  

Bottom Line: If Julien can hit... he will hit both arms. If he has to protected against lefties. He isn't ready to replace Polanco. If he isn't allowed to face lefties... he will never be an adequate replacement for Polanco.

He will just be some guy who hits better than other role player options.    

 

 

Lots of angles to look at this one.  IDK if their plan was to have Solano be the short-side platoon.  Seems like it would make much more sense for farmer to be the short side of that platoon.  Regardless, they found other people to take those ABs and Julien only took 46ABs against LHP.  I think that they will give Julien a shot a LHP but if he fails while crushing RH pitching, I believe they will be able to distribute his ABs between Farmer, Miranda, Martin, Severino, maybe Prato or even Buxton as a pinch hitter.  Julien is the better hitter against RHP and Polanco has a career .96 wRC+ against LHP.  That's not very hard to replicate with platoons especially given Polanco is a below average fielder at this point.

[nicksaviking]

4 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

I often hear of these log jams. I have NEVER seen one. Every year... people talk of log jams... I have never seen one. It doesn't matter... there are multiple channels with shows about Bigfoot and they stay on the air due to audience support. 

If an actual log jam actually occurs... it would be a good thing. All teams should strive for log jams. I've never really seen one though. 

 

The Twins had a half decade logjam of corner outfielders back in the day. With Hunter and Jones locking down spots, vet Matt Lawton was blocking Brian Buchanan, Chad Allen, Michael Cuddyer, Dustan Mohr and Bobby Kielty. And THOSE guys were blocking Michael Ryan, Lew Ford and top prospects Michael Restovich and Jason Kubel.

The Twins did well trading Lawton, Buchanan, and Kielty, but you could make an argument that they should have traded more, considering they never had an issue developing this type of player during that time period.

If you have value that you can't put into your starting lineup or starting rotation, swap it for equal value that you can.

[terrydactyls]

3 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

You make it sound as if a top 10 pick is an automatic all-star.  Gavin Cross who was picked right after Lee was below average in High A.  Jacob Berry who was picked 6th was below average at AA.  Elijah Green (pick #5) was below average in A ball.  He is only 20 years old but we are talking A ball. 

Some here are saying Lee might end up being above average but unspectacular.  Not ideal but a lot better than picking Cavaco over Carroll or Stott.

Never intended to give that impression.  I'm just genuinely confused about the potentiaL of Brooks Lee.

[Riverbrian]

6 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Lots of angles to look at this one.  IDK if their plan was to have Solano be the short-side platoon.  Seems like it would make much more sense for farmer to be the short side of that platoon.  Regardless, the found other people to take those ABs and Julien only took 46ABs against LHP.  I think that they will give Julien a shot a LHP but if he fails while crushing RH pitching, I believe they will be able to distribute his ABs between Farmer, Miranda, Martin, Severino, maybe Prato or even Buxton as a pinch hitter.  Julien is the better hitter against RHP and Polanco has a career .96 wRC+ against LHP.  That's not very hard to replicate with platoons especially given Polanco is a below average fielder at this point.

Based on early season utilization. Solano was the short side 1B option for Joey Gallo. I have no idea what they talked about in the office but based upon utilization. Solano was handcuffed to Gallo originally. Julien wasn't on the roster yet. Farmer was handcuffed to Gordon. 

Now by the time Julien arrived... Context and performance had Solano getting AB's against all hands by playoff time eventually he would settle back to short side.   

I wish I had your faith that they will give Julien a shot in 2024. 

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, EGFTShaw said:

Sarcasm with a dose of truth on a Friday.

Happy weekend everyone.

I don't see this as an issue that has to be fixed right away.  In fact I am 90% in the camp of keeping both.

EJ - improved a lot, (bar was low to start), in his defensive work at 2nd.

BL - unproven in the Bigs, but I want more the Brooks Lee type players, not fewer. (I'll deny this statement if he Sano-s 😁).

We aren't simply looking at 2024, but 2024, (to Infinity), and beyond.

If I was trading today, I would start with Farmer.  I feel Farmer and Polanco are duplicates at this point with Polanco providing a more dangerous bat and a switch hitter.  (NOTE: I said IF, also I like Farmer)

I would do this before EJ or BL.

Not personal…….. I don’t get the affinity with Polanco with nearly every contributor here?? Mostly sentimentality?

He’s played 55% of the games the past 2 years. His defense at 2B in ‘23 has been equated to comparable of Julien’s. Siting performance results from more than past 2 seasons, to me, isn’t very logical. One could argue nearly every player that’s had some success at one point will probably have success in ‘23 because we want it to be true.

Farmer is rated better defensively than Polanco at all 3 glove positions in the infield. He has hit is career BA the past 2 years at .255. Polanco is a career .270 hitter with the past 2 seasons being .235 & .255.

Farmer missed approximately a month in 2023 because he got hit in the face by a pitch - otherwise, available every day!

$6.5M v. $10.5M

OPS - HR pop - other offensive benefits don’t translate if one is on the IL.

Seems to me that Twins have Julien - Farmer - Gordon - Castro - Martin all available to do some work at 2B going into Spring Training, with Julien getting 70% or more of starts in season. Lee coming mid-summer to add depth at 3B &/or 2B. Why they wouldn’t move Polanco while he has some value & when they need payroll flexibility? Not doing this doesn’t make sense to me.

If they keep Polanco & don’t trade Farmer of Kepler - what’s the 13 man every day roster April 1st?

[AceWrigley]

4 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

... everyone come a running... bring axes, chain saws and portable wenches.

 

Gotta love those portable wenches.

[Brett]

Hey Cody, I think you hit a nerve here. 65 comments in just 4 hours!

Not germane to the topic, but does TD have some analytics going on the writers? Whose writing gets the most clicks? Who draws the most commentary?

I look forward to some day looking at the TD feed and having a writer’s stats at the top, headlined by CAR (Comments Above Replacement writer).

[JD-TWINS]

2 hours ago, Cody Pirkl said:

For Lee or Julien it would absolutely have to be for a high end starter to part with them.

I think we need to be realistic on Jorge Polanco's trade value. Eugenio Suarez was traded earlier this offseason for a backup catcher and lottery ticket minor league reliever. Suarez has a similar contract to Polanco with team control for 2024 and a team option in 2025 for $3m more. He was basically exactly as valuable as Polanco on a per game basis, except he played all 162 games in 2024, whereas Polanco's injury concerns continue to pop up and he only played in 80.

I think Suarez is going to be the closest trade comp to Polanco we'll see this offseason in terms of an aging infielder with a 2025 team option, and the return he brought was miles away from anywhere close to a high end starting pitcher. It was basically a salary dump by Seattle, and they're likely a worse team for trading him.

Gotta link with a team that sees value with Polanco as a 2B for 75 games (maybe with a team developing a RH young 2B?) - 3B for 5 games if needed - 50 games as a DH. As well, he needs to be lumped with a Festa - E. Rodriguez combination to net a decent arm.

Probably very slim things work for an arm but he’s netting nothing of near-term value by himself!

[Riverbrian]

11 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

The Twins had a half decade logjam of corner outfielders back in the day. With Hunter and Jones locking down spots, vet Matt Lawton was blocking Brian Buchanan, Chad Allen, Michael Cuddyer, Dustan Mohr and Bobby Kielty. And THOSE guys were blocking Michael Ryan, Lew Ford and top prospects Michael Restovich and Jason Kubel.

The Twins did well trading Lawton, Buchanan, and Kielty, but you could make an argument that they should have traded more, considering they never had an issue developing this type of player during that time period.

If you have value that you can't put into your starting lineup or starting rotation, swap it for equal value that you can.

I'd argue that a good chunk of the players that you list were merely branches.    

Cuddyer was an infielder in the minors... who ended up playing more OF because that is where they were short on logs. 

Mohr wasn't a log... Allen wasn't a log. 😉     

 

[August J Gloop]

52 minutes ago, Cris E said:

Har.  Kepler had a hot 12 weeks in the past three years, Gordon's "hot" season was barely league average and he's not an infielder anymore, nor is he young, and Festa has three games above AA ball and is only a 45 grade prospect.  As a 50 grade prospect with a much better track record in the minors Meyer alone is almost worth those three, and Luzardo is miles ahead of him. This is a laughably bad trade even if Kepler was under team control for three more years at a decent cost.   

I har right back you. Festa is healthy Meyer has not been (and it seems like Miami is planning to stash him at AAA anyway, preferring to stretch AJ Puk out ). I don't think they see MNMax as all that big a part of their future anymore. 

Miami had literally the worst offense last year and Max would slot in as their top offensive option other than Arraez. He's a good hitter and is cost controlled. But if it makes you happy, let's put Ober in that deal. If the Twins had Luzardo, Moving Ober would probably help the clubhouse anyway, since he might get booted from the rotation again. (If the Seattle thing pans out)

The point in all this is that the new guy in MIA has an mission to pay as little as possible for the team this year, which is why Luzardo is on the block at all. The aforementioned move of Puk to the rotation when they have all these young guys? What? Either they have zero confidence in MNMax or they decided since Puk gets 1M, he better get to the rotation. 

The list of teams that are going to offer anything useful for for 2024 is pretty short. If they are willing to tank after a playoff appearance, then sure, let's talk prospects. But My guess is that he has to make it look like they're competing, so he's not going to get many better offers for 2024. 

 

[KBJ1]

I solidly believe Martin is going to take over CF and have a great year, career. Regardless if Buxton can play the field.

Only way I trade any of Julien, Lee, Martin is if we get a Pablo Lopez, signed , sealed & delivered. Not an easy proposition to fulfill.

[Cody Pirkl]

1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

That you didn't agree... On that we agree. 

I do appreciate your attempt to think like the front office thinks... I try to do that as well. 

The Twins clearly set up the roster for platoon utilization. This was their plan and they are not alone... The Giants and Dodgers are a couple of other teams that platoon at the extreme level of the Twins.

However... in the end. The careful off-season planning of a lefty handcuffed to a righty didn't last long. The opening day roster plans were blown a part before April was done. Solano the off-season planned short side platoon guy ended up with the third most AB's on the team. Castro the 26th guy on the opening day roster was 4th in AB's. Castro got 114 AB's against lefties despite a .636 OPS against those left handers but at least he could swing from the right handed batters box when producing that.

All of these best laid off season plans to have a lefty here and a righty here are blown apart quickly as soon the injury train leaves the station. 

Yet through it all... no matter if takes adding Jordan Luplow to the roster... it was the young left handed hitters with entire futures in front of them who remained punished by strict platooning consistently like the world falls apart if they are allowed to face Sean Manaea.  

Bottom Line: If Julien can hit... he will hit both arms. If he has to protected against lefties. He isn't ready to replace Polanco. If he isn't allowed to face lefties... he will never be an adequate replacement for Polanco.

He will just be some guy who hits better than other role player options.    

 

 

FWIW, Ken Griffey Jr. was 11% below league average in his career vs LHP. Just something to keep in mind regarding the possibility that Julien is a legitimate impact hitter that will likely struggle vs LHP for his entire career to at least some degree.

[Karbo]

2 hours ago, Otaknam said:

No team will trade a proven top of the rotation starter for Kiriloff and the unproven Martin. If the Twins could do that they should! But it would take a lot more top talent to make that trade. Kiriloff AND Lee or Kiriloff AND Julien might get it done, with maybe a top 20 minor leaguer thrown in. 

What I meant to say was a potential top of the order starter. I would throw in another prospect to make it work.

[RpR]

aI would like to find one of the crystal balls so many here seem to be gazing through.

Julien has shown he has large gaps, in his performance; he is below average  at Second on his best day., and some here think if he keeps batting agaist pitchers that already own him, he will magically get better, good grief.

Polance in 4 seasons at Second is average, not below.

Lee is an unknown rookie; could come up and not be below average in any manner, or could be another De La Cruz: come up and looking like the next Joe Mauer , and then quickly fall down to Celestino level.

IF, if they would trade both it would be foolish to do so for any pitcher not at leaat at Gray's level, but that will never happen.

[nicksaviking]

32 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

I'd argue that a good chunk of the players that you list were merely branches.    

Cuddyer was an infielder in the minors... who ended up playing more OF because that is where they were short on logs. 

Mohr wasn't a log... Allen wasn't a log. 😉     

 

Cuddyer was moved to the outfield because Koskie and Casey Blake were blocking him and he wasn't good at 2nd, He played almost exclusively in the OF in 2003 at both the MLB level and AAA. Then Lew Ford took the job and ran with it in 2004 and the team traded for Shannon Stewart mid season so they pushed Cuddyer back to infield momentarily only BECAUSE the outfield depth was so strong.

But Allen and Mohr were absolutely legit considerations. Both were killing it in the minors, Mohr had a .961 OPS before he was called up. They weren't hitting the top prospects lists, but they earned their call ups over the higher valued prospects, who were at the same levels in the minors. They were certainly the Yunior Severinos and Anthony Pratos of that group.

[Cody Pirkl]

42 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Gotta link with a team that sees value with Polanco as a 2B for 75 games (maybe with a team developing a RH young 2B?) - 3B for 5 games if needed - 50 games as a DH. As well, he needs to be lumped with a Festa - E. Rodriguez combination to net a decent arm.

Probably very slim things work for an arm but he’s netting nothing of near-term value by himself!

I think every team sees Polanco as a startable 2B with the ability to fill in at 3B and a bat worthy of DH on occasion, I just think we overrate how much that profile is worth in trade. I do think adding Festa or even ERod would significantly increase the return. Probably depends on the team and what they think of the other player.

[Fatbat]

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

The Twins had a half decade logjam of corner outfielders back in the day. With Hunter and Jones locking down spots, vet Matt Lawton was blocking Brian Buchanan, Chad Allen, Michael Cuddyer, Dustan Mohr and Bobby Kielty. And THOSE guys were blocking Michael Ryan, Lew Ford and top prospects Michael Restovich and Jason Kubel.

The Twins did well trading Lawton, Buchanan, and Kielty, but you could make an argument that they should have traded more, considering they never had an issue developing this type of player during that time period.

If you have value that you can't put into your starting lineup or starting rotation, swap it for equal value that you can.

None of those corner OF’s was a #8 draft pick with the ceiling that Lee has. All that really was, was a FO continually drafting the same player type and not knowing how to build a championship team.  

[wipster]

Just think, if we had owners who were as concerned about winning championships as they were making every last dime they can, this wouldn't even be a question that would need to be asked!!

[olerud]

Neither one!!!

 

[Heiny]

58 minutes ago, AceWrigley said:

Gotta love those portable wenches.

I don't care so much that they are portable, but the fact that they are wenches kind of excites me.

[Cris E]

If MIA needs offense then they shouldn't be interested in debris like Gordon or unneeded pitching like Festa, They should be pushing for as many bats as they can fit into a trade like this.  And if MIA is under financial pressure (like the Twins) then they don't want Kepler at $10m.  They should be far more interested in cheaper options like Julien, Lee, Lewis, Wallner, Larnach, Kirilloff, Martin, etc. To move an inexpensive arm with remaining control they want to get more of the same in return, not the last year of Kepler's deal.

And that still only addresses the Meyer v Kepler, Gordon, Festa part of the deal and glosses over how Luzardo would also be a fair throw-in. It's miles from serving the Marlins' needs.

[AceWrigley]

Just now, Heiny said:

I don't care so much that they are portable, but the fact that they are wenches kind of excites me.

Never underestimate portability.

[Riverbrian]

6 minutes ago, Cody Pirkl said:

FWIW, Ken Griffey Jr. was 11% below league average in his career vs LHP. Just something to keep in mind regarding the possibility that Julien is a legitimate impact hitter that will likely struggle vs LHP for his entire career to at least some degree.

I sure hope that Julien has a career that matches Ken Griffey Jr. 

As a 19 year old in 1989... Ken Griffey Jr. had a .610 OPS against left handed pitching. 797 against right handers. 

He had 118 AB's against LH and 377 against RH

As a 20 year old in 1990... Ken Griffey Jr. had a .805 OPS against left handed pitching. .872 against right handers. 

He had 238 AB's against LH and 438 against RH.  

At no point in his career was Ken Griffey Jr. held to 40 AB's against left handed hitting. Henry Cotto was not needed to pinch hit for Ken Griffey. 

[Cody Pirkl]

3 hours ago, Woof Bronzer said:

If we are at the point where self imposed spending constraints force us to trade young controllable talented players then seriously, what the heck we are doing here?  What is the plan?   

It's all dependent on the market and many teams are on the same boat. 

Consider this though: The Twins last year traded Luis Arraez for Pablo Lopez and two prospects, extended Lopez for below market value, and then he was one of the best pitchers in baseball. We can't count on that every time, but if they can make a similar deal for a pitcher they think they can improve, it's a much more effective route to take than doing something like bringing Sonny Gray back on the deal he got based on the healthiest and most effective season he's had since 2019. It all comes down to making the best addition and not necessarily how much money is being spent. A lot of times those two factors don't line up.

[AceWrigley]

1 hour ago, Brett said:

Hey Cody, I think you hit a nerve here. 65 comments in just 4 hours!

Not germane to the topic, but does TD have some analytics going on the writers? Whose writing gets the most clicks? Who draws the most commentary?

I look forward to some day looking at the TD feed and having a writer’s stats at the top, headlined by CAR (Comments Above Replacement writer).

CAR . . . excellent Simpson.

[Cris E]

Regarding the original question, I think Lee would be as close to untouchable as I would ever admit in many organizations. But we signed Correa to a long-term contract so Lee won't reach his peak value as long as Carlos is starting at his best position. Lee hits very well for a SS but doesn't carry a big enough bat to stand out at other position, and if he has to play at 3B for the next three years he's not going to be as valuable as if he'd hit the same way at short.  So if I'm the Twins this spring I might listen to offers with a little more open mind than if I were another team that had Brooks Lee coming into his own at AAA. 

That said, he's tremendously valuable so the only offers I'm entertaining are for similarly big pieces. Luzardo? Sure.  Shane Bieber? No. Kirby? Before lunch. Woo? Slow down, have you seen Polanco's power numbers?

[MGX]

22 minutes ago, RpR said:

Julien has shown he has large gaps, in his performance; he is below average  at Second on his best day., and some here think if he keeps batting agaist pitchers that already own him, he will magically get better, good grief.

Polance in 4 seasons at Second is average, not below.

Julien 2023 0 OAA at 2b, including +5 OAA over the last 3 months of the season

Polanco 2021 -2 OAA at 2b, 2022 -9 OAA at 2b & 2023 -5 OAA at 2b.

I'm not sure why you think Polanco is the better defensive 2b.