Yoendrys Gómez Can’t Keep Getting Away With This

Yoendrys Gómez has been one of the best additions the Minnesota Twins have made this season, and it's hard to argue with the results. Since the Twins acquired him in early May, Gómez has been nothing short of excellent. In 35 innings with Minnesota, the right-hander has posted a sparkling 1.80 ERA while becoming the team's most trusted option in the highest-leverage situations. He leads all Twins players with a 1.88 Win Probability Added (WPA) and has appeared in more high-leverage situations than any other reliever on the roster.

Gómez has firmly established himself as the Twins' closer, too. Even after Minnesota added Jeff Hoffman at the trade deadline, there has been no indication that the Twins intend to move Gómez out of the ninth inning. When the Twins have a lead to protect in the ninth, Gómez is still the guy, and considering how well he has pitched, it's easy to understand why.

But there are some reasons to pump the brakes on expecting Gómez to continue pitching at this level for the remainder of the season. Despite that 1.80 ERA with the Twins, Gómez's season-long ERA sits at 3.27, and his underlying numbers suggest that even that mark may be flattering. Gómez has a 5.05 expected ERA, and the enormous gap between his actual ERA and expected ERA is the 13th-largest difference in baseball, making him one of the luckiest pitchers in the majors by that measure.

One of the reasons for that discrepancy is that Gómez has been remarkably effective at getting outs despite allowing some solid contact. Gómez ranks in the bottom third of the league in both hard-hit percentage and barrel percentage, which isn't exactly the profile you want to see from a pitcher who is being relied upon to consistently shut down the best hitters in the biggest moments of games. His xFIP reflects that, as it is the sixth highest in all of baseball among relievers at 5.01, suggesting that his true skill level has been significantly worse than his results would indicate. xFIP attempts to strip away some of the luck involved in a pitcher's results by removing the impact of defense and normalizing home-run rates based on fly balls allowed. When a pitcher has a 1.80 ERA but an xFIP that ranks among the worst in baseball, it's probably worth paying attention.

Then there's the control, which might be the biggest concern. Gómez ranks in just the 11th percentile in walk percentage, and those free passes have gotten him into plenty of precarious situations. To his credit, he has been remarkably good at escaping them, stranding 79% of the runners who have reached base against him. The problem is that the Twins can't reasonably expect him to keep escaping those situations at that rate forever, especially with a strikeout rate that is solid, but nowhere near elite. Eventually, those walks are going to come back to bite him.

There have already been some cracks, too. Gómez took the loss in extra innings against the Milwaukee Brewers over the weekend, and struggled again on Wednesday as he surrendered a home run against the Baltimore Orioles. More concerning is the recent walk problem, as Gómez has issued 10 walks over his last 12 innings. That's a lot of traffic for a pitcher who is being asked to navigate the highest-leverage situations on the roster.

None of this is meant to suggest that Gómez has been a bad acquisition. Quite the opposite. He has been a slam-dunk addition for the Twins and has provided tremendous value since arriving in Minnesota. But there's a difference between appreciating what Gómez has done and expecting him to continue doing it indefinitely, especially when so many of his underlying numbers suggest that a correction is coming.

The Twins should be prepared for that regression, and the good news is that they have given themselves a much better chance to withstand it. Minnesota was aggressive about adding bullpen help at the trade deadline, and the Twins now have multiple legitimate alternatives if Gómez's underlying numbers eventually catch up with his results. A.J. Minter, Jeff Hoffman and Andrew Morris are all capable of handling important innings, giving Minnesota options if Gómez needs to be moved out of the ninth inning at some point.

For now, though, the Twins have been firm about keeping Gómez in the closer role, and there's no reason to change that simply because his underlying numbers aren't pretty. He's earned the opportunity to keep pitching in those situations, but the Twins also shouldn't be surprised if things get a little bumpy down the stretch. Gómez has done an outstanding job getting himself out of trouble all season, but eventually the walks, hard contact and other underlying indicators are likely to catch up with him.

What do you think? Is Yoendrys Gómez due for a significant regression, or has he earned the benefit of the doubt and proven that he can continue to thrive as the Twins' closer down the stretch? Leave a comment below and start the conversation!