Edouard Julien v. Brooks Lee: Whom Should the Twins Trade?

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

Brooks Lee has a big part of the Twins' imminent future in every aspect of the game, IMO a good All-Star  Candidate who can play all 3 INF positions efficiently and is a switch-hitter. Eddie Julien has a good eye, especially against RHPs is stretched at 2B (which is not a good tell). So I'd choose Julien over Lee to be traded hands down.

But the Twins need to look further down the road because we a have great core of players that have emerged onto the spotlight with others on their heels that can take us to the big dance. For that to happen we need quality depth at CF, SS & catcher.

STL made it to the big dance many times merely on great catching with pitching & dense. Our lowly neighbors KC went to the big dance in 2014 & '15. Losing in '14 but winning it in '15 on the same recipe. My point is that we need to stop ignoring the catcher. I like Jeffers, he's hard-working, he's an average starter overall. Do we want an average CF or SS to start in the WS? NO, -So why are we content with Jeffers? We need a bigger upgrade at catcher. There are a lot of young MLB-ready catchers with high potential. With good to great arms, athletic, 2-way, some LH or SH ready to be mentored by Vazquez. All these opportunities lining up plus Jeffers is at a high point in his trade value ever is too good to pass up. But if we punt on this one the opportunity will be gone.

So who would I trade for Front line pitching? Jeffers would be my choice.

If you perceive Jeffers as not that much of a valuable contributor, a weak link in our pursuit of a Championship, why would some other team make a wonderful trade with Twins for him?

He’s a high value, coveted guy, or not.

I don’t disagree on Lee’s upside but he doesn’t have a hit in the Show. The minor leagues are full of exciting players with All-star POTENTIAL.

I’d trade Julien before any of the other guys Twins hold in high esteem (Lee - Lewis - Jenkins) but he’s had success v. MLB pitching with high OBP & POWER (not sited often enough) & an improving defensive profile.

I don’t trade any guy that’s had above average success in the Show - with his best years ahead!!

Polanco - Vazquez - Farmer - Kepler, in that order are all guys that have had success that can be blended with prospects with potential for some return on the Staff. IMO.

[Major League Ready]

38 minutes ago, TNtwins85 said:

Understandable. He did improve. But in this scenario why trade one or the other? I think Wallner should be in the conversation. Lee is already better at 2B as it stands. Move Julien to LF. Lee takes 2B. Polanco and Wallner get packaged. I’d rather have Julian’s bat in the lineup playing LF than Wallner. I’d rather have Lee’s bat in the lineup playing 2B over Julien and Polanco. I’d rather have both of them over Wallner and Polanco. Therefore you keep them both. This is the best lineup and defense. The article is about Julien and Lee when really we should be talking about Wallner and Polanco. Maybe it doesn’t get you a top of the rotation starter but I’d rather have Julien and Lee playing everyday than a number 2-3 starter and only one of the two.

Not a bad solution if Julien can play the OF but they did try him there in the minors as I recall.  As bad as he was at 2B, you would have to believe they were not encouraged with what the witnessed with him in LF.  IDK if Lewis is dead set against play in the OF but moving him to the OF is much better scenario.  Lee is likely better than Lewis at 3B.  Lewis is likely better than any of our other LF Options and Julien is likely the worst of our LF options defensively.

[mnfireman]

14 hours ago, Fatbat said:

SI has a great article based on a Falvey interview. He is getting plenty of trade calls but nothing of value yet. He hopes things pick up late January but it sounded like  other FO don’t value any of our guys high enough to get a deal done with any player. Hurry up and wait, winter is getting longer and colder. 

Link: https://www.si.com/mlb/twins/news/twins-have-received-trade-calls-about-royce-lewis-eddy-julien

[stringer bell]

1 hour ago, TNtwins85 said:

Just my opinion but why do you have to trade one or the other. Why would you just not move the guy who hits great to another position where you are weak in my opinion which would be left field. He’s played there before and he can work at that position which has played before. That allows you to put the higher defensive value player in Lee there. Julien is a better hitter than Wallner. Lee is a better hitter than Wallner and a superior defensive player to Julien and Wallner. If you’re willing to trade a player it should be Wallner is what we’ve come to here. That puts him and Polanco on the block which creates a decent package while still keeping the two best hitters in this scenario. That’s my thinking.

The consensus of the responses to this article is that neither Lee or Julien should be traded. I agree. I think this might be a year where most of the perceived logjams are figured out. There are a lot of "ifs" in looking at the 2024 Twins--if Lewis is healthy, he's an All-Star and MVP candidate, if Wallner keeps the Ks down, he's an offensive monster, if Julien continues to improve, he's an elite leadoff guy, if Kirilloff and Buxton are healthy......and so on and so forth. Putting a solid year behind a breakthrough (Jeffers, Lewis, Julien, Wallner) takes a lot of uncertainty out of the equation. José Miranda is an example of not backing up a breakthrough.

I'd certainly like to see Lee get a month or two of big league time to see if he's as good as his boosters say or if he's just another prospect. I think all the guys will get a shot and I have high hopes for almost all of them. I also think Austin Martin will be a good addition to the position player mix. 

As far as moving Julien to left field. He struggled there before (in the minors). We have no track record for Lee at second base and Matt Wallner probably improved as much defensively in 2023 as any player on the roster, including Julien. Wallner may well end up in right field (better use of the plus arm) if Kepler is traded, but until then, he's decent to good in left.

[darin617]

4 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

He already is average at one position (2B) but a lot of people apparently are unwilling to acknowledge that he has improved.  We all hoped he could become average at a position.  The young man worked hard and accomplished what we hoped for.  Now, some people want to ignore what happened and move off the position where he has become competent.     

Statcast - Edouard Julien

Why are you happy with a player being average at an important position? That bat better be incredible for sure. An average infielder is not what you want on a playoff team. So in an important playoff game do you pull him after 6 or 7 innings and bring in a defensive replacement? 

I like Julien as a player. His value should be sky high since he's not a free agent until 2030. But just like Arraez if he can bring you a great starting pitcher with at least a couple of years of control you would have to think about it. 

[Woof Bronzer]

5 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

I can understand that you read something you thought was meaningful.  However, If you check a source that provides all the details you won't find yourself responding with "huh".    

Diamondbacks 2024 Payroll

 

 

Here's a couple more links for your reading pleasure:

https://www.si.com/mlb/diamondbacks/analysis/whats-next-for-the-diamondbacks-offseason

https://www.mlb.com/news/dbacks-offseason-as-impressive-as-october

I'll leave you with a direct quote from the Dbacks president:  “We’d like to think we can have greater revenue streams going into next season, when more people want to come out and watch our team play,” Kendrick said. “And we’re going to re-invest. The Diamondbacks are going to go on the field this year with the highest payroll in the history of the team."

Imagine anyone associated with the Twins saying this.  

You should seriously ask yourself why you defend this organization so desperately that you have to create an alternative reality to suit your narrative.  

[Major League Ready]

2 hours ago, Woof Bronzer said:

Here's a couple more links for your reading pleasure:

https://www.si.com/mlb/diamondbacks/analysis/whats-next-for-the-diamondbacks-offseason

https://www.mlb.com/news/dbacks-offseason-as-impressive-as-october

I'll leave you with a direct quote from the Dbacks president:  “We’d like to think we can have greater revenue streams going into next season, when more people want to come out and watch our team play,” Kendrick said. “And we’re going to re-invest. The Diamondbacks are going to go on the field this year with the highest payroll in the history of the team."

Imagine anyone associated with the Twins saying this.  

You should seriously ask yourself why you defend this organization so desperately that you have to create an alternative reality to suit your narrative.  

It says within the body of this article that the projected salary is $127M so what's your point?  You are all fired up because they spinning a scenario that they are spending aggressively.  The Twins are spending roughly the same but somehow the dbacks are heroes and the Twins are cheap.  You are not interested in a factual representation.  You just want to bitch.

[EGFTShaw]

20 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

The potential of getting a starter with the floor of Pablo Lopez is nearly impossible. I watched the “Top 10 pitcher” special on MLB network earlier this week & Lopez was in Top 10 of all starters for ‘24 on 2 of the 6 lists. One list was computer driven and other 5 from  pundits like Brian Kenny & Ron Darling.

XWOBA (likelihood of someone getting on base) for 2023 - López had the BEST in baseball! …….#1……..

Two different thoughts on my part & not a thorough explanation 

who to trade started out with Lee & Julien.  I didn’t like this option. I pivoted to Polanco/Farmer/Kepler 

I wasn’t thinking of the current version Pablo because he is rated far better now than when when we traded for him. 

but if there is a pitcher our FO thinks is like Marlins Lopez that could become the Twins Lopez that is who I would target. 

we can’t afford to deplete our farm like the big markets and then buy our way out of any mistakes. 

you are spot on that we are not getting a current Lopez for our veterans I listed. 

[Woof Bronzer]

56 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

It says withing the body of this article that the projected salary is $127M so what's your point?  

Reading is hard.

"And the D-backs are not yet done. They still have the payroll flexibility to add a right-handed-hitting designated hitter and make some minor additions to the bullpen."

"As of today the Diamondbacks' payroll is estimated to be anywhere between $137-$143 million depending on the source and method of calculation. Already surpassing 2018's previous franchise high of $131 million, there has been much speculation about exactly how much higher ownership is willing to go.  Ken Kendrick indicated following the Gurriel press conference they are not done spending yet, but declined to offer a specific number.  It's been speculated by some that the number is $150 million, which would leave them between $7-13 million left to spend on free agents or absorb in trades."

 I can't imagine being so triggered by criticism of your favorite team that you must pretend that every other team acts in the exact same manner, forget how to read, and make up an alternative reality that fits your narrative.  But hey, you can be whatever kind of fan you want to be.  You do you! Have a good one.  

[JD-TWINS]

On 1/12/2024 at 1:55 PM, Cody Pirkl said:

It's all dependent on the market and many teams are on the same boat. 

Consider this though: The Twins last year traded Luis Arraez for Pablo Lopez and two prospects, extended Lopez for below market value, and then he was one of the best pitchers in baseball. We can't count on that every time, but if they can make a similar deal for a pitcher they think they can improve, it's a much more effective route to take than doing something like bringing Sonny Gray back on the deal he got based on the healthiest and most effective season he's had since 2019. It all comes down to making the best addition and not necessarily how much money is being spent. A lot of times those two factors don't line up.

Honest question here (pertinent since it allows team to keep both Julien & Lee), why would the Twins not sign Mike Clevinger to a 2year deal for $14.5M/year - year 2 is player option?? Security & flexibility for player. Twins get experience and talent………131 innings & 3.77 ERA in ‘23. Move Polanco and Clevinger is really affordable.

Thoughts?

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, JD-TWINS said:

Thoughts?

Falvey likely has different thoughts on Clevinger.

Speaking for myself only, I'm with Varland at #4 and Paddack at #5.

If the Twins can bring in Luzardo, Gilbert, or Kirby in a shocking move I shall not complain and if Seattle signs Snell after dumping DeSclafani and then trades Woo or Miller to the Twins for Polanco, I shall not complain too much. All of these are distant though.

Clevinger, Bauer, Urias - all quite different but seem like a stretch for Falvey. 

[mnfireman]

5 hours ago, darin617 said:

Why are you happy with a player being average at an important position? That bat better be incredible for sure. An average infielder is not what you want on a playoff team. So in an important playoff game do you pull him after 6 or 7 innings and bring in a defensive replacement? 

I like Julien as a player. His value should be sky high since he's not a free agent until 2030. But just like Arraez if he can bring you a great starting pitcher with at least a couple of years of control you would have to think about it. 

The team pulled him from both WC games, used him only as a PH in Game 2 of the ALDS and used him as a DH for for Games 3 & 4. Sounds like they wanted the bat, not against a LHP though, but not the glove.

[JD-TWINS]

57 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Falvey likely has different thoughts on Clevinger.

Speaking for myself only, I'm with Varland at #4 and Paddack at #5.

If the Twins can bring in Luzardo, Gilbert, or Kirby in a shocking move I shall not complain and if Seattle signs Snell after dumping DeSclafani and then trades Woo or Miller to the Twins for Polanco, I shall not complain too much. All of these are distant though.

Clevinger, Bauer, Urias - all quite different but seem like a stretch for Falvey. 

Clevinger was exonerated - at least in the Press I saw. 15 people interviewed by MLB - zero discipline. Sounded like a past female scorned…….that’s what I read. No criminal stuff. Always proclaimed innocence. Not excusing anything done out of bounds but he’s pitched both years since coming back from surgery….,I don’t know that he’s any sort of problem other than maybe wanting too much $$ or too many years?

Urias - disciplined last year - not sure where that’s at?

Bauer got the death penalty, essentially - 360 games approximately, reduced to 190 games approximately. He’s apologized & is still way on the outside looking in…….

[tony&rodney]

2 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Clevinger was exonerated - at least in the Press I saw. 15 people interviewed by MLB - zero discipline. Sounded like a past female scorned…….that’s what I read. No criminal stuff. Always proclaimed innocence. Not excusing anything done out of bounds but he’s pitched both years since coming back from surgery….,I don’t know that he’s any sort of problem other than maybe wanting too much $$ or too many years?

Urias - disciplined last year - not sure where that’s at?

Bauer got the death penalty, essentially - 360 games approximately, reduced to 190 games approximately. He’s apologized & is still way on the outside looking in…….

Oh, I have no opinion on any of these players whatsoever. I also do not have any inside information, just the widely reported and commonly read articles. My comment was that Falvey likely has different thoughts.

The book on Edouard Julien has just begun. He has his detractors, for sure. I will say that he and Kepler drove the second half success in my opinion. Those folks who liked a showdown at the plate missing when Luis Arraez was traded should have enjoyed Julien. Despite clumsy claims to the contrary, Edouard became a decent second baseman by the end of the year. Playing Polanco at 2B in the playoffs was a no brain move - Polanco has been the heart and soul of the team, injuries aside. Don't ask any Houston pitchers if Julien is a tough out. 

Brooks Lee has done extremely well in his short time in professional baseball. He finished the year in AAA and so his story as an MLB ballplayer has yet to be known. Lee has great promise.

Who to trade? I don't want to trade either player or as I stated above in a separate comment, perhaps who needs to be opened up to more players. I don't want to make a trade. Still, to the post ... I go back to picking teams on the playground and I'm picking Julien for my team. Those who choose Lee, I understand. We make our picks and play the games. I never regret my picks.

[mnfireman]

Twins post-All Star stats 2023 - Kepler and several others drove the success as much as or more than Julien....

[Linus]

2 hours ago, mnfireman said:

Twins post-All Star stats 2023 - Kepler and several others drove the success as much as or more than Julien....

Yep. I like Julien but he may be a regression candidate. His second half numbers were clearly less than the first half and he had a bapip of 335 which is likely to come down some. I would trade him before Lee but I wouldn’t trade either unless it is for a good controllable starter. I’m not at all worried about finding places for all of them to play 

[Cody Pirkl]

On 1/12/2024 at 4:19 PM, Woof Bronzer said:

The market has nothing to do with the Twins deciding to cut payroll. No one forced them to do that.  The Dbacks are increasing payroll from last year and they have the same exact tv uncertainty we do.  Reducing payroll and getting worse was a choice that the Twins made.  

We also traded for Mahle and Lopez and those were disasters.  That's the thing, trades don't always work out.  Relying solely on trades to improve your roster is basically rolling the dice.   

The Twins not shopping on the high end of free agent pitching also has nothing to do with the Twins cutting payroll. That's never been how they operate even as they were steadily increasing payroll the last few years.

Just because they aren't giving Jordan Montgomery $150m doesn't mean they're getting worse, there's plenty of time left for them to add another pitcher. If you think it sucked to lose a few prospects in trade that didn't have spots here anyways, just imagine what would happen if they sign a 30+ year old pitcher to a long term deal that becomes an albatross.

[Cody Pirkl]

On 1/13/2024 at 2:06 PM, JD-TWINS said:

Honest question here (pertinent since it allows team to keep both Julien & Lee), why would the Twins not sign Mike Clevinger to a 2year deal for $14.5M/year - year 2 is player option?? Security & flexibility for player. Twins get experience and talent………131 innings & 3.77 ERA in ‘23. Move Polanco and Clevinger is really affordable.

Thoughts?

Well for starters I'm sure they're aware of Clevinger not being the greatest clubhouse presence to have around. Aside from a lot of negative off field stories, I remember him giving up a game winning homer to Polanco in 2019 and immediately saying he must still be doing PEDs postgame.

I also think there's a reason Clevinger is still out on the market. He had the lowest HR/FB rate of his career in 2023 and his strikeout rate keeps plummeting. I'm not saying he can't be a solid starter for somebody, but I'd guess the Twins are aiming for more upside, and I think Clevinger will cost a bit more than we expect based on some of the other SP deals that have been signed.

[tony&rodney]

23 hours ago, Linus said:

Yep. I like Julien but he may be a regression candidate.

Yes, but every player is a regression candidate. Those players who command the strike zone as hitters are less prone to regression and this makes Julien less prone to regression than any other Twin. 

However, your point that Julien may be a regression candidate is true.

[wabene]

Yes it is true that Julien had a downturn in the second half. To be fair he was clearly injured at the time. He did manage to pull himself together when it mattered most to the tune of a 1.043 OPS in the playoffs. With his command of the plate and clutch nature, he may be the least likely candidate for regression. 

[jorgenswest]

Are we all talking about the same thing when we are talking about regression? Regression is moving in the direction of a player’s mean. A player with a really high BABiP or low BABiP is a candidate for regression their slash stats because that BABiP is unsustainable. One might argue that Julien’s BABiP of .371 is pretty high and his slash stats are likely to regress. On the other hand he has a history of high BABiPs and it might be close to his mean.

The Twin most likely to see his slash stats regress is Nick Gordon. His BABiP of .179 last year is way off his career trend. 

[ashbury]

26 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

One might argue that Julien’s BABiP of .371 is pretty high and his slash stats are likely to regress. On the other hand he has a history of high BABiPs and it might be close to his mean.

Only one man has sustained (across 3000+ PA, i.e. 4 or 5 full seasons) a BABIP higher than that figure: Ty Cobb.  Different eras, obviously, but to speculate that Julien might establish a mean anywhere near that high would put him above renowned batters Shoeless Joe Jackson and Rogers Hornsby, those next in line behind Cobb, and significantly above Carew, Gwynn, and Mauer, who also rank highly in historical terms.

Depending on how loosely you meant "close," Julien's tracking as an inner circle Hall of Famer right now, if you're right about that.  😀

[jorgenswest]

46 minutes ago, ashbury said:

Only one man has sustained (across 3000+ PA, i.e. 4 or 5 full seasons) a BABIP higher than that figure: Ty Cobb.  Different eras, obviously, but to speculate that Julien might establish a mean anywhere near that high would put him above renowned batters Shoeless Joe Jackson and Rogers Hornsby, those next in line behind Cobb, and significantly above Carew, Gwynn, and Mauer, who also rank highly in historical terms.

Depending on how loosely you meant "close," Julien's tracking as an inner circle Hall of Famer right now, if you're right about that.  😀

I expect a lower BABiP and regression in the batting average. I also think he will have higher than league average BABiPs.

[Linus]

2 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Yes, but every player is a regression candidate. Those players who command the strike zone as hitters are less prone to regression and this makes Julien less prone to regression than any other Twin. 

However, your point that Julien may be a regression candidate is true.

I am basing my comments on a bapip that isn’t sustainable. 

[wabene]

In 2022 in over 500 plate appearances at AA Julien had a babip of .393. Last year at AAA in 170 PA it was .386. I'm mean in A ball in over 200 PA it was .451. In a full season in '24 do I think his babip will be as high as .371 again? That is pretty high so unlikely I guess. The guy will always have a high babip due to his approach. I see Eddie only getting better and if he is healthy, his overall production will be resistant to regression. At least until he sets the bar too high, lol. 

[August J Gloop]

It's clear that everyone is playing chicken both with each other and Diamond Sports Group. Nobody knows what their budget will be so they can't commit. The Twins should just accept this reality that they're paying Kep and Polo this year. They can't get out of it. So if they move on, they will be able to get better prospects. Free Kep is pretty valuable. Free Polo is very valuable.

[Riverbrian]

On 1/12/2024 at 7:00 AM, Riverbrian said:

I often hear of these log jams. I have NEVER seen one. Every year... people talk of log jams... I have never seen one. It doesn't matter... there are multiple channels with shows about Bigfoot and they stay on the air due to audience support. 

If an actual log jam actually occurs... it would be a good thing. All teams should strive for log jams. I've never really seen one though. 

Polanco and Julien floating on the same river... what are we going to do? Quickly sound the alarm... everyone come a running... bring axes, chain saws and portable wenches.

Let's get all of those eggs into one basket as quickly as possible. 

 

Yeah... I'm in a I told ya so mood this morning. 

Every off-season we forget about injuries while we talk about the serious log jam problem and who must go to clear it. 

This morning... I'd like to remind everyone so we have less of this log jam talk next off-season, less of the we got to trade Royce Lewis to make room talk next off-season.  

[Linus]

5 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

Yeah... I'm in a I told ya so mood this morning. 

Every off-season we forget about injuries while we talk about the serious log jam problem and who must go to clear it. 

This morning... I'd like to remind everyone so we have less of this log jam talk next off-season, less of the we got to trade Royce Lewis to make room talk next off-season.  

Yea I’m feeling snarky after yesterday’s game. I was going to post something like boy the Twins could really use a veteran infielder preferably a switch hitter. 

[Riverbrian]

4 minutes ago, Linus said:

Yea I’m feeling snarky after yesterday’s game. I was going to post something like boy the Twins could really use a veteran infielder preferably a switch hitter. 

It needs to said. 

[USAFChief]

6 hours ago, Linus said:

Yea I’m feeling snarky after yesterday’s game. I was going to post something like boy the Twins could really use a veteran infielder preferably a switch hitter. 

Or at least the useful return.

 

They've got neither.