Week in Review: Winning Ugly in Oakland

[Nick Nelson]

The Twins came out of the break with a remarkably unimpressive series sweep in Oakland, where they had to scratch and claw for everything against the worst team in baseball.

The front office made no meaningful changes over the All-Star break as they continue to watch their team's quality of play on the field spiral with no intervention. 

Image courtesy of Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports

Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 7/10 through Sun, 7/16
***
Record Last Week: 3-0 (Overall: 48-46)
Run Differential Last Week: +5 (Overall: +32)
Standing: 1st Place in AL Central (2.5 GA)

Last Week's Game Results:

Game 92 | MIN 5, OAK 4: Ugly Win Salvaged on Late Gallo HR
Game 93 | MIN 10, OAK 7: López Struggles But Bats Answer Call
Game 94 | MIN 5, OAK 4: Bullpen, Kirilloff Come Up Big

NEWS & NOTES

Upon returning to the Twins in early July, when he took over for an injured Royce Lewis at third base, José Miranda looked much the same as he did before his demotion. His time in Triple-A, where he posted a .686 OPS, wasn't any different. Miranda had a monster spring offensively, but has never looked right since.

Maybe now we have some explanation. On Saturday, Miranda was placed on the IL with an injury to the same right shoulder that bothered him throughout spring training. Evidently, the issue never quite went away. 

He insisted back then his shoulder wasn't affecting his swing – and his Grapefruit numbers backed that up – but that might have changed over time. Notably, Miranda has not been able to muster any power this year, after piling up 40 extra-base hits as a rookie. 

The lack of any impact from Miranda is among the biggest factors in Minnesota's offensive downfall this year. He's slated to receive a PRP injection and re-evaluate in a week, but it feels tough to expect much from the 25-year-old in what's looking like a lost year.

The question now is whether a jolt from Matt Wallner, perhaps similar to the one Miranda provided last year, could help fill that void. 

Wallner joins the roster in Miranda's stead, and he'll try to find regular playing time amidst a left-handed corner glut on the roster. Meanwhile, the Twins will try to figure it out at third base with Kyle Farmer and Willi Castro.

Help is on the way for the infield. Jorge Polanco embarked on a rehab assignment at Triple-A on Sunday. He played DH for the Saints and went 2-for-3 with a double. 

In the same game at CHS Field, Dallas Keuchel allowed one earned run over six innings, leaving his ERA at 0.90 through five starts. Don't be surprised to see Keuchel join the Twins rotation sometime this week, with seven games in seven days ahead.

HIGHLIGHTS

The aftermath of Minnesota's players-only meeting, which saw the offense quickly revert right back to its familiar level of lifelessness, was a ringing endorsement for the idea that talk is empty. However, it has been nice to see at least a couple of players put their money where their mouths are.

Carlos Correa, most critically, is leading that pack. His move to the leadoff spot coincided with the meeting, and Correa's been filling the role brilliantly, with a .423 on-base percentage and noticeable improvement in at-bat quality since. The Oakland series saw him go 5-for-12 with a pair of doubles. Correa drove in two on Saturday night, delivering a trend-bucking clutch knock with the bases juiced.

 

It's easy to forget now that, before the unlikely signing of Correa, Farmer was lined up to be the Twins' shortstop. He's played a large role here anyway, and while expectations are far smaller than Correa's, the former Red has been a disappointment by his own measure. Farmer described his first half to Dan Hayes of The Athletic as "horse manure."

In Oakland, Farmer looked like a guy ready to flush that first half. (Careful about that though.) He tripled and walked as cleanup hitter on Friday, then delivered a signature performance on Saturday with three hits and three RBIs in a 10-7 win. He lifted his OPS by 55 points in a two-game span.

 

Backing up a solid overall showing from the offense, the bullpen came up huge in Oakland. Embattled right-hander Emilio Pagán played a pivotal role by getting nine outs over two scoreless appearances. Jhoan Duran emphatically responded to his All-Star snub by picking up saves in three straight games – though that doesn't necessarily bode well for his availability in Seattle.

LOWLIGHTS

While Correa continues his turnaround and Polanco works his way back, Byron Buxton shows no signs of shaking off his immense struggles. He is lost at sea, timidly tip-toeing his way through every at-bat, hoping desperately to guess right on a mistake. Friday's game saw Buxton strike out looking at three straight fastballs with the bases loaded.

It says a lot that Buxton managing to grind out a bases-loaded walk on Saturday night against a no-name reliever fresh out of Triple-A (where he averaged 4.0 BB/9) was treated as a chest-thumping moment of redemption. Buxton otherwise went 0-for-12 with seven strikeouts in the series, despite many of those ABs coming against very ordinary left-handed pitchers.

 

Yeah, he's had some bad luck on hard-hit balls. But Buxton inspires no confidence, no hint of lurking greatness. That's been the case for weeks. He's now a one-dimensional player within a one-dimensional player – a bat-only option with middling discipline, who exclusively looks to turn on the ball and launch it. Pitchers are casually working around him and he's visibly helpless against it.

To a point, the Twins' enduring faith in Buxton is a practical necessity. He just signed a $100 million contract and they can't just plop him on the bench. Also, their recognition of his innate talent is valid. We know what can happen when it clicks for Buck. We know how fast the switch can flip.

Unfortunately, that fleeting hope needs to be balanced against the harshness of undeniable reality. Buxton hasn't been streaky, he's just been bad. His momentary outbursts of offense – a few mile-long home runs bunched together in a brief span – are surrounded by oceans of unproductive PAs at the heart of the lineup. It's not a tenable situation.

Continuing to shrug their shoulders while Buxton tanks their lineup as everyday No. 3 hitter is a prime example of this team's frustrating "all talk, no action" routine. You can't continue to say something's got to change, change nothing, and then act flabbergasted when nothing changes. [Insert falsely attributed Albert Einstein quote about insanity.]

I'm not claiming to know what the answer is but it needs to start with disrupting the status quo. Move Buxton down in the lineup. Sit him against righties a few times a week. Consider a long-term injured list stint, because it's impossible to believe Buxton is at a remotely adequate level physically with this downright abysmal play.

The Twins can't continue to live with a dreadful offense for which Buxton is setting the tone. Polanco's impending return creates a pressure point of sorts, because as things stand, they're going to have to choose between losing Edouard Julien's essential bat ... or opening up the DH spot for him. 

The urgency for more offense was underscored by a very discouraging weekend from the rotation. Kenta Maeda and Joe Ryan were underwhelming against the worst lineup in the majors. Pablo López was flat-out terrible, following up the best start of his career with an absolute clunker in which he gave up seven earned runs against the freaking A's. No one on this team can seem to sustain and harness a good vibe – even the All-Stars.

TRENDING STORYLINE

Wallner is back on the roster, but now finds himself stuck in a bit of a playing-time crunch, with Max Kepler and Joey Gallo both still around. Wallner didn't start on Saturday or Sunday after being recalled, though the Twins faced left-handed starters in both games.

He should be in line to start most days against righties, though he would need to do so at the expense of Kepler, because both only play right field. (To this point, anyway.) That shouldn't be a hard decision, but ... it would represent a change of tune for the Twins, who've been standing by Kepler through thick and thin. Their faith has paid off to an extent – he's been legitimately solid for a month or so.

Are they now going to start sitting him three or four times a week in favor for Wallner? Seems kind of hard to imagine, based on all we know. But they didn't call up Wallner to sit on the bench,. It will to be extremely interesting to see how the starts are divvied with all right-handers on the slate next week. 

Worth noting: Kepler's best bet to keep himself in the lineup almost everyday would be to change his tune on playing center. But there are no indications that's in the cards.

LOOKING AHEAD

The Twins continue their West Coast road trip with more late-night games from Seattle. The Mariners aren't great, but if the Twins bring the same quality of play as they put forth in Oakland, they're gonna get clobbered. 

Pitching match-ups for next weekend are tentative. As mentioned earlier, it wouldn't be a shock to see Keuchel step in to make a start against the White Sox. 

MONDAY, 7/17: TWINS @ MARINERS – RHP Sonny Gray v. RHP Logan Gilbert
TUESDAY, 7/18: TWINS @ MARINERS – RHP Bailey Ober v. RHP Bryan Woo
WEDNESDAY, 7/19: TWINS @ MARINERS – RHP Kenta Maeda v. RHP Luis Castillo
THURSDAY, 7/20: TWINS @ MARINERS – RHP Pablo Lopez v. RHP George Kirby
FRIDAY, 7/21: WHITE SOX @ TWINS – RHP Lance Lynn v. RHP Joe Ryan
SATURDAY, 7/22: WHITE SOX @ TWINS – RHP Dylan Cease v. RHP Sonny Gray
SUNDAY, 7/23: WHITE SOX @ TWINS – RHP Lucas Giolito v. RHP Bailey Ober

 

 

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[FlyingFinn]

"His momentary outbursts of offense – a few mile-long home runs bunched together in a brief span – are surrounded by oceans of unproductive PAs at the heart of the lineup. It's not a tenable situation."

Wasn't this exact quote made last year, for Miguel Sano???

[Nine of twelve]

1 hour ago, Nick Nelson said:

Standing: 1st Place in AL Central (2.5 GB)

 

 

Nitpick: I think GB stands for Games Behind. Shouldn't this be 2.5 GA (Games Ahead)?

[tony&rodney]

This is an excellent synopsis of the Twins current situation. Today there were five players starting who are very decent reserve players (Castro, Farmer, Taylor, Solano, and Kepler). all starting in the same game. I guess it is fair against a left handed pitcher but the Twins need regular at bats from full fledged starters. FWIW, the team should carry 14 position players.

Buxton is lost. Forget the numbers, he looks defeated walking into the batter's box. I have no idea what is going on but feel for the guy and playing him in the three hole is totally absurd. That leaves Correa, Kirilloff, and the rotation at catcher as normal starters. Again, versus a left handed pitcher perhaps this is ok, but there needs to be a spot for Julien right now, and if Wallner is up he should be playing. Seattle should be quite an interesting test. Hopefully, we see good at bats and excellent pitching in the series versus the Mariners.

[mikelink45]

There's nothing to add to this report. It's up to the front office if any adding is going to be done. 

[gunnarthor]

Well, credit where credit is due. They should sweep Oakland and they did. They are back in first. Good work.

[David A]

“But they didn't call up Wallner to sit on the bench.”

I hope you’re right, but it’s hard to imagine that they’ll bench any of the corner lefties (Kepler, Gallo or Kirilloff) in favor of Wallner. My guess is they use Wallner as a bench bat, and try to get him ~3 starts a week when those guys (and Buxton) have days off.

[Twins_Fan_For_Life]

Extremely well written.  Thank you, 

[NotAboutWinning]

20 minutes ago, David A said:

“But they didn't call up Wallner to sit on the bench.”

I hope you’re right, but it’s hard to imagine that they’ll bench any of the corner lefties (Kepler, Gallo or Kirilloff) in favor of Wallner. My guess is they use Wallner as a bench bat, and try to get him ~3 starts a week when those guys (and Buxton) have days off.

And Baldelli doesn't seem very pleased with Wallner being there.

[Unwinder]

OK, despite some struggling big names, and a lot of memorable whiffs, and the A's being the opponent, the outcome of this series would honestly look pretty good if the starting pitching had been up to the usual 2023 standard. If the Twins could score five runs on anything resembling a regular basis, they'd be unstoppable.

[Monkeypaws]

Micro-analyzing the game can lead to mental illness.

Wins and losses,

Good batting averages, home run and rbi numbers, ERA and innings pitched, wish the Twins would use these metrics.

[Kummel]

 I agree that keeping Buxton in as DH is painful and unhelpful at this point.  Gallo doesn't inspire confidence, either.  But I don't feel as pessimistic as the author.  The Twins did generate some runs during the Oakland series and there are signs that the  offense can pick up with the combination of young bats (Kirilloff, Julien, Wallner, unfortunately not Royce for now) and an improved Correa.  Correa is now the leadoff hitter - that is a change the Twins have made - and it seems to be working.  And while everyone's offensive production is down this year other than maybe Solano, the "contributing cast" (Solano, Taylor, Castro, Farmer) is solid, can pick it up. 

[Peter]

No doubt buxton needs to get it going but a sweep is a sweep even if it’s ugly wins-who cares twins are in first place and that’s all that matters. This week if we spilt with Seattle and go 2-1 against white sox I’ll take it. Time to start winning series and put central division title away.

[MABB1959]

9 hours ago, FlyingFinn said:

"His momentary outbursts of offense – a few mile-long home runs bunched together in a brief span – are surrounded by oceans of unproductive PAs at the heart of the lineup. It's not a tenable situation."

Wasn't this exact quote made last year, for Miguel Sano???

Seems most were always hard on Sano vs Buxton.  We all want Buxton to succeed no doubt but everyday, every at bat seems his success is not going to happen.  I think we all know his knee is NOT going to get better but no idea why that would affect his at bats.  If it is a back injury it will be even more devastating,  I really don't think moving him long term to the IL  (perhaps the rest of the year) would help.  I feel they are still looking at him as the face of the franchise/ticket seller.  I think it is hurting his reputation and maybe his health which IMO is not going to get better,  They should just put him in CF as I don't think this DH thing is going to get better even if they make the playoffs.  Oh well I really hope the best for him and maybe it is worth the DH spot just to keep a fan favorite in the line-up.  Thankfully Correa is doing a bit better his last 30 days at least.  His BA is .269 over the last 30 games but it will be hard to pull it up overall now.  He is at .232 for the year which doesn't look great.  Hope he can keep up the .269 or even better for the rest if the season.  Solano, Julien, AK, Jeffers and Polanco should play consistently.  The outfield is harder to decide.  No stand outs for sure, probably time to bring up some AAA players,   They should give Wallner RF and see what he has. Is Larnach still in the long term plans? Play him instead of Gallo and for CF get Buxton out there now or at least give it a shot.  I don't think his health can deteriorate much more.  And try to sign a true DH,  Wouldn't it be something if they went after and signed Ohtani!!!!!!

[pierre75275]

The wins were hard to come by bc our pitching wasn't as good as it has been. I don't think looking at this weekend and thinking we can't beat Seattle bc we could barely beat Oakland is justified. If the starting pitching is what it has been I think we will be fine in Seattle .

With the exception of Buxton, the offense I believe has been more efficient and balanced lately. It's been nice to see the runs come in, in other ways not just the home run way ...

Hopefully, the ugly wins give confidence and lead to a prolonged time of the team playing better.

[USAFChief]

9 hours ago, NotAboutWinning said:

And Baldelli doesn't seem very pleased with Wallner being there.

Rocco, on Saturday's post game interview, when asked about Wallner: "we already have LH hitting outfielders"

[theBOMisthebomb]

This summary seems much too negative after a three game sweep on the road. 

[HokieRif]

Admittedly I wasn’t able to watch anything this weekend except for the last couple innings on Saturday. The results that mattered the most were the ones we expected with a three-game sweep… but the way it was accomplished does not instill confidence. 
 

as for this quote:

”In Oakland, Farmer looked like a guy ready to flush that first half. (Careful about that though.) ”

[beterday]

Miguel Sano became helpless against the low, outside breaking pitch to the point where I, as a fan, could predict the pitch sequence - fastball down the middle to get ahead, 1st breaking ball, low and outside, for swinging, strike two, then one, or two, fastballs high and inside, before finishing the at bat with another low and outside breaking ball.  Sometimes eliminate the waste pitches, just go for the 3 pitch strikeout.  Buxtion is now the same hitter.  Watched him swing at, at least, two pitches a foot outside and breaking low and yet he also took at least one fastball down the pipe in each at bat.  A foul ball is the best we can expect.  Confidence has to be in horrible mode to celebrate that emotionally on drawing a walk - still took a fastball down the middle.  Dan Gladden says, "He won't miss that pitch very often" when an opposing player hits a home run off a Twins pitcher, but it is never mentioned when Buxton misses one such pitch each at bat.  Start with moving him to the 9 hole, not as punishment, but as a confidence builder.

[John Belinski]

1 hour ago, USAFChief said:

Rocco, on Saturday's post game interview, when asked about Wallner: "we already have LH hitting outfielders"

Maybe someone should ask him why is Buxton the DH or why is Buxton batting in 3 spot? Ask Rocco a hard question to get a answer as to why Buxton is even playing since he is hurting team. NO other manager in baseball would have a .200 hitter batting in 3 spot, but that tells people why Rocco is a poor manager.

[stringer bell]

I’m neither disappointed or elated by the Twins sweep of the A’s. There were several disappointing performances (Buxton, the starters) but the bullpen and several players got the job done. Just enough big hits to paper over some sketchy starting pitching. 

[VivaBomboRivera!]

Quote

The aftermath of Minnesota's players-only meeting, which saw the offense quickly revert right back to its familiar level of lifelessness inconsistency, was a ringing endorsement for the idea that talk is empty.

Lifeless - no; still irritatingly inconsistent - yes.

It would not be true to say that the team is in exactly the same place they were before the "season started." They are scoring half a run more per game on average than before, team batting average is up 20 points and strikeout rate is down by a little more. While it is fair to say that recent wins have come from cupcake teams, it is also notable that they took all three games of those series, much harder to accomplish than two of three. The way the team scratched out runs inning after inning to maintain the lead in the second game with the Athletics was particularly satisfying and gives reason for hope.

If the season ended now with a Central Division pennant, the grade would be C+.  That would rise to B or B+ if they take the Seattle series.

 

[IaBeanCounter]

2 hours ago, theBOMisthebomb said:

This summary seems much too negative after a three game sweep on the road. 

I agree with this comment.  The Twins join the Mets, Cubs, Sea, Hou and Philly in sweeping the As at Oakland.  Angels, Cle, Cinn, Tx, AZ and NYY each lost one game in their Oakland series.  Atlanta, Tampa Bay and the White Sox each lost 2 games in their Oakland series in 3 of the previous 5 series before the ASB.   The Twins found ways to win when their starting pitching was leaking runs.  I for one am happy with the sweep. 

[JD-TWINS]

Gotta agree that Buxton to the IL for 30 days makes sense! Can’t get less from the DH spot. Gives him 2 weeks back up with Twins late August to see if we can carry him on playoff squad.

Wallner - Julien - Polanco (exchange roster spot with Byron) can man the DH role along with Solano.

This combination has to improve our results!

Lewis - CC - Julien - Kirilloff by mid-August as our infield.

Could really use a jolt in OF!! As many have said multiple times, seems like we can’t carry both Gallo & Kepler.

TRADE: Andrew Grichuk from Colorado. He can play all 3 OF positions. 18 doubles & .300 BA in 2023………career .250 BA. Can’t be a huge market for him - most good/decent teams have effective OF play & associated offense already.

Hoping, Polanco & Gallo & Kepler are gone at break…….

Playoff line-up v. LH pitcher:

CC - Grichuk - Lewis - Farmer - Solano - Jeffers - Kirilloff - (healthy) Buxton DH - Taylor

V. RH pitcher:

CC - Julien - Kirilloff - Wallner - Solano or Buxton DH - Lewis - Castro - Grichuk - Vazquez

4 starters in playoffs:

Pen: have Maeda going into Pen & Kuechel taking Sands spot……..Headrick/Thielbar taking Lopez/Pagan spots. Moran - Ortega - Balazovic - Jax - Duran

Grichuk trade reasonable option/solution?

 

[HokieRif]

2 hours ago, John Belinski said:

Maybe someone should ask him why is Buxton the DH or why is Buxton batting in 3 spot? Ask Rocco a hard question to get a answer as to why Buxton is even playing since he is hurting team. NO other manager in baseball would have a .200 hitter batting in 3 spot, but that tells people why Rocco is a poor manager.

It might not be his decision…

[Minny505]

I feel an ugly storyline was missed in this recap

• Julien started ZERO games.
• Kirilloff started 2 games, batting 6th and 9th(9th! WTF!?)
• Kepler started all 3 games, batting 4th, 5th, and 9th
• Gallo started 1 game, batting 9th

Maybe I missed something. Is Julien hurt? Was Kirilloff sick?

If not, I'm confused. The best hitter of that group did not start a game while the worst hitter started 3 of them. That doesn't sound like the decisions of a team with a struggling offense putting their players in the best position to win games.

[NotAboutWinning]

33 minutes ago, HokieRif said:

It might not be his decision…

I think you are on to something. It sounds ludicrous, but the top 4-5 spots in the order seem to be decided by the marketing department via the FO!

[python85]

1 hour ago, JD-TWINS said:

Hoping, Polanco & Gallo & Kepler are gone at break…….

I get Kepler and Gallo, but why on earth would we cut Polanco? He has been good when healthy this year. His biggest problem is that he can't stay on the field, and cutting him won't help that.

[Minny505]

15 minutes ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

Your answer... the lineups always seem to be dependent on the handedness of the opposing starting pitcher.  It has nothing to do with the quality of OUR hitter.  It's all odds-based.

I do not agree with that logic and feel that the BEST hitters should be in there, but this is not this teams philosophy IMO.

How will our young hitters ever learn to hit pitchers from the same side if you never ask them to do that?

I understand platoons, but they are all left handed hitters. 

They could simply line it up as:

Kepler/Gallo RF

Kirilloff LF

Julien 2B

Solano 1B

Farmer 3B

But they didn't. Not once. They chose to have Kepler in RF in every game. and Julien at 2B in ZERO games. 

[Mike Sixel]

4 hours ago, USAFChief said:

Rocco, on Saturday's post game interview, when asked about Wallner: "we already have LH hitting outfielders"

If I was him, I'd want a 3B that was hitting like a mad man since moving to AAA, not ANOTHER LH corner OF........so I get his frustration. This team doesn't need to add Wallner to Gallo and Kepler......

Also, still not sure how Polanco makes the team any better if he replaces Julien. Certainly not offensively.