Week in Review: Momentum Killers

[Nick Nelson]

The Twins experienced their high point of the season, an emphatic walkoff win in the ninth against Milwaukee, and then almost immediately spiraled into their worst stretch of baseball yet against the Tigers.

The drumbeat of disappointment plays on in this incredibly frustrating season, even as the Twins remain perched atop a laughably bad division.

Image courtesy of Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports

Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 6/12 through Sun, 6/18
***
Record Last Week: 3-3 (Overall: 36-36)
Run Differential Last Week: -6 (Overall: +34)
Standing: 1st Place in AL Central (3.0 GA)

Last Week's Game Results:

Game 67 | MIN 7, MIL 5: Twins Pull Off Thrilling Comeback in Ninth
Game 68 | MIN 4, MIL 2: Correa Keys Victory Behind Ober's Strong Start
Game 69 | DET 8, MIN 4: Gray, Bullpen Can't Hold Onto Early Lead
Game 70 | DET 7, MIN 1: Outclassed by Tigers in Embarrassing Blowout
Game 71 | MIN 2, DET 0: Bullpen Game Produces Shutout
Game 72 | DET 6, MIN 4: Varland Serves Up Bombs, Rallies Stall

NEWS & NOTES

Much like Max Kepler, Byron Buxton had been struggling before his latest trip to injured list. Like Kepler, Buxton returned directly to the Twins lineup once he was deemed ready, bypassing the standard minor-league rehab assignment. And like Kepler, Buxton went right back to struggling, coming out of the gates 0-for-13 with eight strikeouts.

As a result of Buxton's activation on Thursday, Trevor Larnach was once again optioned to Triple-A, which is unfortunate. In fairness, it's not like Larnach has been lighting the world on fire, but he's at a prove-it point in his career and can't seem to find a sustained run of MLB playing time. To be deprived of that opportunity at the expense of Kepler, or a plainly broken Buxton, is tough.

Even Joey Gallo, also activated last week, is becoming an awkward fit as he slumps and clogs the depth chart on a one-year deal, though his positional flexibility is handy. Kyle Garlick returned to the minors to make room for Gallo, who went 3-for-14 and struck out four times on Sunday.

In other Twins roster moves from the past week:

• Josh Winder, who made a strong impression by tossing four innings of one-run ball across two relief appearances, was optioned to Triple-A in exchange for Brent Headrick, who got the win as bulk guy in Saturday's bullpen game.
• Gilberto Celestino completed his rehab from a torn thumb ligament. He was activated from the 60-day IL and optioned to Triple-A; the Twins made room by moving Jorgé Alcala to the 60-day IL, ruling him out for another month.

Finally, Jorge López was moved to the Restricted List for what's being termed mental health issues. He'll be away from the team indefinitely. Sadly this development doesn't come as any big surprise – López has imploded on the mound in the past month, frequently showing no semblance of command or poise even in the lowest-leverage of mop-up spots. 

Since blowing his first save on April 29th, following a great first month, López posted an 8.80 ERA, 9.53 FIP, 12 strikeouts, 10 walks, 4 HBP, and six homers allowed in 15 ⅓ innings. 

There was no trusting him in any situation, and moreover, putting López into games was starting to feel legitimately dangerous. Nobody wants a guy out there throwing 98 with no idea where it's going. 

Something needed to be done, and this seems like a relatively favorable course of action, all things considered. Hopefully a little time off and the right support can help López get himself right. There's no doubt he can help this team a lot in the future if he returns to the form we know he's capable of capturing.

Meanwhile, the Twins have suffered a crushing blow to their late-inning depth – an issue they'll need to grapple with in the weeks ahead. For now, the López move made way for Jordan Balazovic to join the roster. He made his major-league debut on Sunday, tossing 3 ⅔ scoreless innings against Detroit.

HIGHLIGHTS

After teasing us a with a few fleeting glimpses in April and May, it appears that Carlos Correa has truly and fully awakened. He pronounced this with authority in the bottom of the ninth on Tuesday night, capping an epic comeback against Milwaukee closer Devin Williams by annihilating a two-run walk-off shot to left. As Correa turned to his dugout and pointed to an imaginary watch, he expressed a sentiment we can all share: About. Damn. Time. 

 

For the week, Correa was just 5-for-17 (.217), illustrating an ongoing need for more consistency and sustained production, but at least he's starting to deliver some big hits and signature moments. On Wednesday against Milwaukee he came through with a two-run triple in the third inning that more or less decided the game.

Of course, Bailey Ober played a big role in deciding that game as well. He threw six innings of two-run ball with seven strikeouts and one walk to pick up his fourth win of the season. Since joining the rotation, Ober has been arguably the Twins' best and most consistent starter, completing at least five innings in all 10 turns while posting a 2.65 ERA and 3.53 FIP. 

 

LOWLIGHTS

The vaunted Twins rotation laid a big fat egg in the Detroit series. There's really no other way to put it. This was the worst offensive team in baseball, entering the series ranked dead last in OPS, and yet the Tigers straight-up handled all three starters the Twins threw in this series. 

Sonny Gray, despite being handed a 4-1 lead early, could not throw strikes or escape trouble in the series opener, compelling Rocco Baldelli to (controversially) pull him after four innings at 72 pitches. The bullpen utterly bombed, including an ugly outing from Jorge López (2 IP, 5 H, 3 ER) that proved to be his last before going on the Restricted List.

Joe Ryan coughed up six earned runs on Friday in his worst start of the season, surrendering a pair of home runs in betraying what has generally been a strength for him this year. (He'd allowed only two homers in his previous nine starts.) It appears that regression is catching up a bit with Mr. Ryan, whose ERA has risen from 2.21 to 3.30 in his past four starts.

Louie Varland rounded out the series by getting knocked around on Sunday for six runs on nine hits in 4 ⅓ innings. Like Ryan, Varland was bitten by the long ball, but unlike Ryan, he wasn't bucking any kind of positive trend. Home runs have been a persistent problem for Varland, who's now allowed 18 in 82 major-league innings. Even with all of the other things he does well, it's simply going to be impossible for Varland to be successful MLB pitcher if he can't improve on this grave weakness.

Having said all that, the rotation has generally been good all year, and was always bound to have some lapses here and there. It's very unfortunate to see one coming against the crummiest-hitting team in the league, but nonetheless, you'd sure like to see the lineup answer the call and pick these guys up a little bit – especially considering the Tigers don't pitch real well either. 

They just can't do it. 

After posting four runs during a dramatic ninth-inning comeback on Tuesday, the Twins offense didn't manage to score more than four runs in a game the rest of the week. Fans at Target Field witnessed the usual parade of piss-poor at-bats, with hitters constantly guessing, falling behind, and whiffing their way back to the bench while games slipped away.

Buxton is sadly the biggest problem on the team right now, and it's hard to argue otherwise. Every time he's in the lineup, he's churning outs in the heart of the order, while also occupying the DH spot and forcing the Twins to use guys like Edouard Julien in the field. On Sunday, the Twins forfeit the designated hitter so they could pinch-hit Buxton in the eighth – he struck out looking at a pitch over the plate, of course.

It's been a long time since we've seen even a glimpse of upside to counterbalance the tremendous negatives Buxton is bringing to the table. 

If he were merely stuck in a bad-luck spell or mini-slump it'd be easier to abide the club's inclination toward endless patience and faith. But unfortunately, it is clear to anyone watching that Buxton has no clue and no chance at the plate right now. He's gone 23 consecutive plate appearances without a hit and the quality of at-bats its direly low. 

It's actually kind of hard to comprehend this sudden drop-off, reverting to the form of a 21-year-old rookie in 2015 who was completely baffled and overwhelmed by major-league pitching. The guy who stood there and watched three hittable pitches float over the plate uncontested in the eighth inning on Saturday, with a runner on second and one out, doesn't resemble in any way the aggressive, confident, dominant Byron Buxton I know. 

History tells us he'll snap out of and go on a tear at some point soon, but man, that seems like a massive stretch based on how lost he seems in every single at-bat right now. I can't remember ever seeing Buxton look this blatantly bad aside from short stretches where he was dealing with injuries, or all the way back in those early days of learning the ropes in the big leagues.

Buxton definitely looks like a guy who would have benefited from taking a few swings in the minors on a rehab stint. That ship has sailed. But at the very least, the Twins need to find some ways to take pressure off by moving him down in the order, or something. 

It doesn't help that almost none of Buxton's veteran counterparts on the team have shown any ability to lift up him or the rest of the offense. Kepler, Gallo, and Christian Vázquez have all been black holes at the plate for weeks, showing no real signs of turning it around.

 

We're closing in on the halfway point of the season. The Twins are in first place by three games, by grace of this god-awful division, but they are not in good shape. At this point, the organization should be giving real thought to shaking things up in significant ways. 

Whether that means making a change at hitting coach (what more could you need to see?), moving on from underperforming vets like Kepler and Gallo, facing some hard decisions with Buxton, or otherwise, the front office has got to show some active intervention. This is a stale, lackluster product that's somehow getting worse. The time for shrugging shoulders and stubbornly staying the course is passed.

TRENDING STORYLINE

Decision time is looming for Kenta Maeda. The veteran right-hander made another rehab start for St. Paul on Friday night, pushing to 81 pitches while working into the fifth in Louisville. He reportedly averaged 89.5 MPH with the fastball and maxed at 91.5, which is about what you'd expect at this stage.

Maeda cruised through the early innings before his control unraveled in the fourth and fifth, ultimately walking four and exiting with the bases loaded, which doesn't inspire a ton of confidence. At the same time, Maeda's rehab window is drawing to a close and Varland is not setting a terribly high bar in the fifth rotation spot with his 5.30 ERA. 

Notably, Baldelli hasn't ruled out the possibility of going to a six-man rotation, which would make some sense given the need to keep inning totals in check for guys like Gray (119.2 IP in 2022) and Ober (56).

If that happens, it means we can probably expect true back-of-rotation caliber performance from starters in one-third of the Twins' games, upping the stakes for a sputtering offense to find some life.

LOOKING AHEAD

The current 10-game homestand – off to a 3-3 start – marches on as the Twins welcome a so-so Boston club to town for four games. From there, it's on to Detroit for a three-game rematch on the road. 

The stage is set, theoretically, for Minnesota to start clicking and get on a roll. But it feels like we've been saying that every week.

MONDAY, 6/19: RED SOX @ TWINS – LHP James Paxton v. RHP Pablo Lopez
TUESDAY, 6/20: RED SOX @ TWINS – RHP Kutter Crawford v. RHP Bailey Ober
WEDNESDAY, 6/21: RED SOX @ TWINS – RHP Garrett Whitlock v. RHP Sonny Gray
THURSDAY, 6/22: RED SOX @ TWINS – RHP Tanner Houck v. RHP Joe Ryan
FRIDAY, 6/23: TWINS @ TIGERS – RHP Louie Varland v. LHP Joey Wentz
SATURDAY, 6/17: TWINS @ TIGERS – RHP Pablo Lopez v. TBD
SUNDAY, 6/18: TWINS @ TIGERS – RHP Bailey Ober v. RHP Reese Olson

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[bronald3030]

How much longer do we have to watch Gallo and Kepler strike out ? Cut bait and let Larnach and Wallner develope. They might not do any better, but they might have a future.

[MABB1959]

Desperate times for desperate measures .  I would at least put Buxton in CF for a couple of weeks to see if it helps.  If his body can’t take it then maybe he could medically retire or waive his no trade clause to see if a change of scenery would help.  But sadly I think he may be done because something is very wrong it may be physical or mental. 

[Blyleven2011]

I wish our week in reviews were more positive  , but it's just the way it is with a crappy playing baseball team that is hard to watch take the field  ...

I wish they would come  to play once they take the field ... 

They remind me of a possum and play dead at home and get killed on the road ...

And that's all I have to say about that ...

[Rosterman]

You can have one or two clinkers in your lineup, making up for satriking out or lack of hits with defensive gems. Oft the catcher and maybe a middle infielder. The pain is the Twins can drag out four, as mentioned above, and there is always another two or three just doing...okay at best. The pitching has held them together, especially the rotation. But that ERA is slowly rising.

[Shs_2]

Brent Rooker in Left

Spencer Steer at 3b

Lamonte Wade at 1B

Gio Urshela at DH

Royce Lewis at SS

Julien / Polanco / Solano at 2b

anybody else in RF

Jeffers and anybody ar Catcher

 

One would have to think this lineup would be simply better than our current one. 

Our Front office did this to themselves Obvioisly the Jorge Lopez and Mahle trades cannot be undone .

 

 

 

 

[Doctor Wu]

The bullpen game the Twins used last week seemed to work very well. Why not try it again? Something/Anything (apologies to Todd Rundgren) needs to be done to get this team going again. 

[Riverbrian]

If anyone is up for some fun this morning. 

Open up the past 30 days stats and sort by hits. 

Matt Wallner has as many or more hits than:

Gallo, Kepler, Buxton, Polanco and Larnach. 

Make sure you check the number of AB's for proper perspective. 😉

[Riverbrian]

This year we are paying Correa, Buxton, Gallo, Vazquez and Kepler around 78 million this year. 

78 Million is more than Rays, Pirates, Orioles and A's payroll. 

It's June 19th... Look what those 5 have produced for us. 

Let's be very clear... our vets are the ones who are killing us. 

[HokieRif]

Make up an injury for Buxton and send him down for two weeks

trade Kepler to Cleveland since that’s the only team that can arguably say he will hit well in their ballpark; insert Larnach

cut Gallo and insert Garlick  could be a wash, but a significant cost-cutting wash

fire Popkins. Today. Don’t finish that cup of coffee and just do it. They guy has been responsible for the downfall of a team full of vets and it’s statistically improbable that that they are all independently collapsing at the same time 

[HokieRif]

9 hours ago, Blyleven2011 said:

I wish our week in reviews were more positive  , but it's just the way it is with a crappy playing baseball team that is hard to watch take the field  ...

I wish they would come  to play once they take the field ... 

They remind me of a possum and play dead at home and get killed on the road ...

And that's all I have to say about that ...

I think we need to rename the “Week in Review” to “Let’s Re-Live Last Week’s Nightmare”

[UpstateNewYorker]

Not much good news, but I appreciate the well-written Week In Review every week, Nick!

Players on other teams (such as the Mets) have recently complained that hitting coaches (working closely with an analytical FO) have overwhelmed batters with information, to the point that they suffer paralysis by analysis. This is all I can come up with regarding why so many Twins have higher than usual K rates this season, with so many called third strikes in key situations.

[tony&rodney]

The baseball season is very long, which I like. Last year the Twins were looking pretty decent in late July and were swallowed alive by August and September. This year the team is playing poor baseball and treading water at a .500 mark. The negatives are glaringly apparent as Nick Nelson so adroitly pointed out, and the Twins are frustrating right now to their fans and to themselves. The positives are strong starting pitching and the hope that the talent on the team can get it together and make a sustained run. A decent winning streak could be the tonic needed for the players to shelve their doubts and move forward with confidence. 

The Twins are trying to hold the middle ground of keeping all of their experienced players and thinking that a return to some past successes is possible. It may be possible. More likely, the front office may need to swallow a contract or two and let the fortunes of 2023 play out with a few younger guys. 

[twinsfansd]

I am sick and tired of treating all these big baby super stars as if they call all the shots. Buxton should have gone on a rehab assigment instead of insisting he can just step in and play. His awful play is dragging the team down all because of his selfishness. Enough already.

[stringer bell]

5 minutes ago, twinsfansd said:

I am sick and tired of treating all these big baby super stars as if they call all the shots. Buxton should have gone on a rehab assigment instead of insisting he can just step in and play. His awful play is dragging the team down all because of his selfishness. Enough already.

I don't think the nature and duration of his injury called for rehab time, especially since he was out close to the minimum time. It's too bad that he's not hitting, but there is no guarantee that things would be better if he had gone to St. Paul for a few games. I'm sure Buxton thinks he can help the team, but right now he's not hitting at all.

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

as Nick Nelson so adroitly pointed out

Nice use of the word "adroitly" considering that we played Detroitly. 

[twinsfansd]

I think Buxton did the same thing last time, came back without a rehab and stunk the place up. In fact, has he ever gone on a rehab?

[stringer bell]

1 minute ago, twinsfansd said:

I think Buxton did the same thing last time, came back without a rehab and stunk the place up. In fact, has he ever gone on a rehab?

He has, more than once.

[USAFChief]

Just now, twinsfansd said:

I think Buxton did the same thing last time, came back without a rehab and stunk the place up. In fact, has he ever gone on a rehab?

Almost nobody across MLB goes on rehab following a short stay on the 10 day IL. Particularly established veterans. 

[HoskenPowell]

Sundays stats for Buxton/Gallo and Kepler were quite impressive......again , why is Wallner not getting his chance????

[farmerguychris]

We try to be patient, but for the 4th year in a row - we simply can't hit.  Different hitting coaches don't seem to make a difference.  Time to change that philosophy somehow.  

[D.C Twins]

First off, let's all wish Lopez well and hope he is getting the care he needs.

Mental health IS physical health... the brain is the most complex and least understood organ in the body. 

Second, kudos Nick for a thoughtful and accurate summary of the current status of the Twins.

Finally, my summary... wake up FO and start working the obvious problems!

[chpettit19]

I'm pretty good at seeing the angle the Twins may be taking on certain things, and the logic behind it. I annoy plenty of people around here by defending some of their logic. But I literally can't see, or understand, any logic behind Kepler still being on this team. Not just being on the team, but starting basically automatically against any righty, and not just starting, but hitting 5th(!) in the lineup. Or pinch hitting late in the game in clutch situations. The logic can't be because he's good, because he clearly isn't. The logic can't be for depth reasons since he's starting, and he's playing worse than a replacement level player anyways, so you're actively starting a bad player in the name of not having to start a bad player. The logic can't be his defense since he plays an "offense first" position.

My "fire or not fire" decision making point on the FO this year was their ability to adapt off "the plan" quickly if needed. They've failed. You wanted Kepler to be good. He isn't. You wanted him to build up some trade value since you apparently turned down offers in the offseason you didn't think were good enough. He hasn't, and can't at this point. He's actively hurting your team. Do your f'ing job and cut him loose. 

I don't know what the conversations in the FO are like these days, but there's no way they can be looking at this team and think that standing pat until the deadline is smart. They simply can't be thinking that. I don't know what the conversations in the manager's office are like these days, but there's no way they can be looking at Byron Buxton and thinking he should be hitting in the top 4 in any lineup right now. They simply can't be thinking that. But they do it. I don't see any of the logic in what the team is doing anymore. Pinch hitting for your 3 hole hitter? If he needs to be pinch hit for he shouldn't be hitting 3rd. And you shouldn't be pinch hitting for your supposed star in the making when you have at least 7 dudes in the lineup everyday who shouldn't be in any lineup. There's talent on this team. There's talent in the system. But "the plan" clearly isn't working. It's too late in the season to still be analyzing things. Time to start making actual decisions. And I really hope the Pohlads don't let these guys make "job saving" decisions, and do severe damage to the future of this organization.

[LastOnePicked]

10 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I annoy plenty of people around here by defending some of their logic.

For the record, I don't find your posts annoying at all. Well reasoned, thoughtful counterbalances to the surges of pessimism that are such a huge part of being a Twins fan in this era. The rest of us have the harsh skepticism angle already covered.

And if you're losing patience in the FO, that's saying something.

[Eris]

Sometime ago on the Twins radio broadcast they mentioned that the Twins win about 2/3 of their games when the team has <10 Ks and only win about 1/3 of their games when they have 10 or more strike outs. Vs Detroit, the Ks were 11, 10, 5, and 14. And they won the game 2-0 on Saturday were they had only 5 Ks. 
 

I have accepted that this team is not very good. My expectations for the remainder of the season are quite low. I had posted on a different thread that the Reds who are in full rebuild mode having traded away about 1/2 of their team before, during and after the 2022 season have a better record than the Twins who were all in for the 2022 and 2023 seasons. 

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

I'm pretty good at seeing the angle the Twins may be taking on certain things, and the logic behind it. I annoy plenty of people around here by defending some of their logic. But I literally can't see, or understand, any logic behind Kepler still being on this team. Not just being on the team, but starting basically automatically against any righty, and not just starting, but hitting 5th(!) in the lineup. Or pinch hitting late in the game in clutch situations. The logic can't be because he's good, because he clearly isn't. The logic can't be for depth reasons since he's starting, and he's playing worse than a replacement level player anyways, so you're actively starting a bad player in the name of not having to start a bad player. The logic can't be his defense since he plays an "offense first" position.

My "fire or not fire" decision making point on the FO this year was their ability to adapt off "the plan" quickly if needed. They've failed. You wanted Kepler to be good. He isn't. You wanted him to build up some trade value since you apparently turned down offers in the offseason you didn't think were good enough. He hasn't, and can't at this point. He's actively hurting your team. Do your f'ing job and cut him loose. 

I don't know what the conversations in the FO are like these days, but there's no way they can be looking at this team and think that standing pat until the deadline is smart. They simply can't be thinking that. I don't know what the conversations in the manager's office are like these days, but there's no way they can be looking at Byron Buxton and thinking he should be hitting in the top 4 in any lineup right now. They simply can't be thinking that. But they do it. I don't see any of the logic in what the team is doing anymore. Pinch hitting for your 3 hole hitter? If he needs to be pinch hit for he shouldn't be hitting 3rd. And you shouldn't be pinch hitting for your supposed star in the making when you have at least 7 dudes in the lineup everyday who shouldn't be in any lineup. There's talent on this team. There's talent in the system. But "the plan" clearly isn't working. It's too late in the season to still be analyzing things. Time to start making actual decisions. And I really hope the Pohlads don't let these guys make "job saving" decisions, and do severe damage to the future of this organization.

I'm not quite where you are yet when it comes to the actual pointing of weapons at them but I got some the same concerns. 

This probably doesn't help but in the step in a right direction category. With the team basically healthy... at least in the OF.

Kepler has sat 4 of the last 6 games. Two were against left handed starters but that's 50% against right handed starters. 

One of those starts was with Varland on the mound and I think it's possible that Kepler will be a personal OF caddy for Varland because of Varland's fly ball ratios. 

In other words... we may be looking at the beginning of the end. 😎

[RickOShea]

4 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

If anyone is up for some fun this morning. 

Open up the past 30 days stats and sort by hits. 

Matt Wallner has as many or more hits than:

Gallo, Kepler, Buxton, Polanco and Larnach. 

Make sure you check the number of AB's for proper perspective. 😉

Include in that perspective the difference between minor and major league pitching and defense.  Consider it's not like comparing apples to apples and oranges to oranges.  consider the overall line-ups and how these hitters are positioned.  I never liked comparisons like these, because they are skewed according to a variety of environments and conditions.

[KBJ1]

It's absolutely ridiculous that this teams best hitter is a 35 yr. Old backup utility player (Solano). An excellent starting rotation is being wasted by an imploding bullpen (yet again) and a lineup that can't hit.

If you are only batting 250, you had better be hitting 35 HR.

This entire lineup is hitting near the Mendoza line and striking out at a record pace. No excuse.

[twinsfansd]

Not only is this team not very good, they are pretty much unwatchable. It is just unbearable to watch batter after batter strike out. And the pitches taken for strikes is unfathomable. I don't think I have ever seen a team take so many pitches for strikes. Totally maddening.

[Riverbrian]

5 minutes ago, RickOShea said:

Include in that perspective the difference between minor and major league pitching and defense.  Consider it's not like comparing apples to apples and oranges to oranges.  consider the overall line-ups and how these hitters are positioned.  I never liked comparisons like these, because they are skewed according to a variety of environments and conditions.

I'm not including Wallner's minor league work during this 30 day time frame. 

In the past 30 days Wallner has as many or more hits with the Twins than Gallo, Kepler, Buxton, Polanco and Larnach. 

Wallner has out hit those guys and was only on the roster for 3 games in the past 30 days.