Blue Jays 7, Twins 6: Only the Twins Could Lose Like This

[Steven Trefz]

The Twins got things going early and often on Sunday afternoon in Toronto, and the brooms were getting dusted off and ready for use. An odd game, with an injury delays to both umpire and players, and momentous swings and errors turned what should have been a Sunday stroll into a tragic loss. Here's how it all went down:

Image courtesy of © Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports

Box Score
SP: Louie Varland: 4.2 IP, 6 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 6 K (89 Pitches, 61 Strikes, 68%)
Home Runs: Donovan Solano (1)
Bottom 3 WPA: Emilio Pagan (-0.689), Max Kepler (-0.076), Christian Vasquez (-0.047)

Win Probability Chart (Via Fangraphs):

Doubles Get the Twins Ahead Early
After erupting for eight runs late in the game last night, the Twins didn't waste any time putting a crooked number on the board. In the top of the first inning, Eduoard Julien started his second game in Canada the same way he started his first, lacing a double to right field. After a Donovan Solano walk, Alex Kirilloff followed with a double of his own, scoring Julien for a 1-0 lead.

Carlos Correa came up next and took a walk to load the bases. Larnach delivered immediately with a single to right field, scoring Solano and Kirilloff in a sign that perhaps Correa broke the seal on the bases-loaded curse. Royce Lewis followed with an infield single to score Correa, and the Twins were up 4-0 before the Jays recorded their first out.

Double Plays Keep the Blue Jays in the Game Early
After the Blue Jays scored a run on a sacrifice fly in the bottom of the first inning, the Twins had plenty of opportunity to add to their lead. Gausman, however, was able to use his sinker to induce three inning-ending double plays to erase the threats in the first, second, and fourth innings. He could not finish the fifth inning and allowed seven hits and six runs, including this dead-center blast that got Solano into the 10,000 rakes vest for the first time this season!

Not Turning a Double Play Costs the Twins
A 6-1 lead felt like a million as Varland continued to cruise into the fifth inning. He found himself with runners on the corners with one out but got Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to bounce out into an inning-ending double play. Unfortunately, Julien's throw to Correa was not textbook, and Correa threw the relay to Kirilloff away to allow a run to score and keep the inning alive. Matt Chapman made the Twins and Varland pay for that sloppiness with a home run, and suddenly the score was 6-4.

Keeping the Blue Jays in the Game Was a Bad Idea
The eighth inning on Saturday was the stuff of storybooks for the Twins. The eighth inning on Sunday was the stuff of nightmares. Emilio Pagan entered the game, and before the first out was recorded, it was 7-6 Blue Jays. Two singles put runners on, and the struggling Cavan Biggio ended his struggles by launching a get-me-over fastball to the right-field bleachers to send Twins fans to therapy.

Postgame Interviews

Bullpen Usage Chart

	WED	THU	FRI	SAT	SUN	TOT
De León	0	26	0	31	0	57
Durán	2	0	38	0	0	40
Jax	0	10	13	0	17	40
Stewart	13	0	24	1	0	38
Morán	0	0	7	0	20	27
Pagán	0	0	0	0	22	22
J. López	0	0	0	13	0	13
Winder	0	0	0	0	0	0

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[Sutter50]

The Blue Jay's lost like this yesterday. It's not just a twins thing

[Brazilian Twins Fan]

Pagan should be long gone 

[Squirrel]

Win some, lose some. Someone on this site proclaimed we were going to get swept by both the Rays and the Jays. Well, part of that is true. This won’t be a popular post but I don’t put the blame on Rocco. Sure he could have gone with someone else, but I also don’t think it was wrong to give Pagán the 7, 8, and 9 hitter to get out. He’s had more good outings than bad this year. But I do blame the FO for saying they weren’t focussing on the BP at all during the off season. The manager can’t pitch the same guy every game. The FO needs to give the manager better options.

[darwin22]

Understatement of year, but a gut punch loss.

Those being honest had to see this coming with the "Pagan Sacrifice" coming in to pitch the 8th with a 2-run lead.

I don't care that Pagan had recent success as this was his 1st appearance since May 17th (remember that game against the Dodgers) when he went walk--walk to force in tying run followed by 1st pitch grand slam to Outman).

With an OFF DAY tomorrow, I have to ask why Stewart wasn't brought in?  I know he pitched Friday with around 20 pitches and appeared yesterday, but only threw 1 pitch.

Anyway, back to the Pagan Sacrifice.  Can't put Kirk away ahead 1-2 in count--line drive single to right.  Gets ahead of Espinal (8-hole hitter) 0-1 and then gets ripped for another single.  The inevitable then happened. Falls behind 2-0 to Biggio (hitting .186 entering game) and throws a center-cut fastball-----------BOOM!!  There goes the game.

When will Falvey have the guts to admit the acquisition of Pagan has been a colossal failure?  7 blown saves last year before being pulled from closer role and now his 2nd BSBV this year.

For those wondering, this is only the 5th game that Pagan appeared in with the Twins holding a lead.  

His pitching line:

4.0 IP/ 10 hits/ 7 ER for a tidy mess of a 15.79 ERA

Saying all that-------Varland is also responsible for this loss.  Given a 6-1 lead entering the 5th, you have to get through that inning.  Yes, there should've been a DP without any runs scoring, but those plays happen.  What can't happen with 2-outs and a 6-2 lead is hanging a slider to Chapman on a 2-2 count.  

 

 

[DocBauer]

Watched some of the game, monitored it also on the "live" MLB page when I couldn't watch it.

1] Varland deserved better.

2] I don't want her my hopes up, but the bats at least appear to be heating up. Let's hope it's not an illusion.

3] But Correa on 3rd base with ZERO outs and all we can muster is a pair of SO and a weak...normal...Kepler grounder to 2B? 

4] After the commercial break, i heard the Twins booth trying to legitimize, or explain, the called 3rd strike on Kirilloff for not being in the box and ready at the 8 second mark. Maybe, maybe AK didn't have his eyes focused on the pitcher for a moment, but he was standing on the box, head up, and bat held high at 9 seconds. Or maybe I'm going blind. That was atrocious!

5] Even with a 2 run lead, I quit watching or following when Pagan came in. I already knew what was going to happen, I didn't need to watch it. And just like last year, just like this year, he absolutely blows it. And he's done this again and again for multiple teams for 5 consecutive years. 5 years as the worst RP in all of MLB with the lowest WPA, and yet he still has a job for some reason.

Not only should he not have been in the pen to begin with, but repeating the same ineptitude this season should have him gone Monday. I would trust almost anyone from AAA over him at this point. Just ridiculous.

[CoastiePilot08]

Fire pagán into the sun 

[wabene]

Fricken tough loss I thought they had this one, damn. Oh well back to chores, glad I got all that piss and vinegar out, thanks for being there for me, lol. 

[Nashvilletwin]

12 minutes ago, darwin22 said:

For those wondering, this is only the 5th game that Pagan appeared in with the Twins holding a lead.  

His pitching line:

4.0 IP/ 10 hits/ 7 ER for a tidy mess of a 15.79 ERA

Wow.  That’s unbelievable.  

[ashbury]

Quote

Bottom 3 WPA: Emilio Pagan (-0.689), ...

You have to think about how WPA works to really let this number soak in.  Each team starts at .500 to win, at the outset.  If you put together a win, that means .500 worth of points is available to split among all your participants that day, batters and pitchers together, which brings the sum to 1.000 for the complete win.  The reverse point system goes for the losing team, accumulating their negative .500 to bring their sum to .000 and the loss.

Pagan in those three batters did more than a typical loss's worth of damage.  He turned a very likely win to a very likely loss, in that short span of time.  Not unheard of (Cimber had a -.754 just yesterday for Toronto, and we all LOLed), but it's still remarkable.

Pagan's ERA for the season rose from 3.76 to 4.61 with this one game.  That's the nature of being a short reliever. Bad as the ERA is, his season WPA is now -.781, worst on the staff, and that to me says more.  It lines up better with how much of a gut punch his 3 biggest failures this season have been.  He racks up tiny positive WPA in the low-leverage successes, but more than offsets them with these disasters.

[Squirrel]

What does ‘down’ mean? Sick? Sore? Unavailable? What? If we were that short then I double down on the FO not rostering a better BP.

[ashbury]

2 minutes ago, Squirrel said:

What does ‘down’ mean? Sick? Sore? Unavailable? What? If we were that short then I double down on the FO not rostering a better BP.

Probably short for in need of down-time, and not the more dire connotations.

[Squirrel]

1 minute ago, ashbury said:

Probably short for down-time.

Still, if your only reliable relievers are down, that really points a finger at how poorly constructed the BP is .., I’m tripling down on the FO being to blame for this 🙂

[ashbury]

1 minute ago, Squirrel said:

Still if your only reliable relievers are down, that really points a finger at how poorly constructed the BP is .., I’m tripling down on the FO being to blame for this 🙂

75% blame to FalVine for bullpen construction.  25% blame to Pagan for being Pagan.

[Riverbrian]

I refuse to be bummed out by this loss. I'm actually happy because it has been the offense keeping me up at night. They took down a real good starter this afternoon. Keep it up! 

Been watching a lot of baseball over the years. I've seen blown leads before... I'll see a blown lead again. I'm sure. 

Pagan... what can I say... He's on the roster. You can't hide players that are on the roster. If you have to hide them... they shouldn't be on the roster because you can't hide them. 

 Duran, Stewart and Deleon were not available. Moran and Jax have already pitched in the game. You have the 8th and 9th to cover.

You can't hide players on the roster. 

 

 

[Mark G]

26 minutes ago, Squirrel said:

Still, if your only reliable relievers are down, that really points a finger at how poorly constructed the BP is .., I’m tripling down on the FO being to blame for this 🙂

Quick question:  I follow pretty closely, and usually know what is going on, at least, but I am missing something here.  What happened to Caleb T.?  He faces 2 batters and we never see him again, and now he is on the IL.  I really missed something here.  

[Eris]

When you have a chance to turn a double play to get out of the inning, the infield needs to turn two.  All the runs were earned, a scoring rule I would like to see changed. 

[Squirrel]

3 minutes ago, Mark G said:

Quick question:  I follow pretty closely, and usually know what is going on, at least, but I am missing something here.  What happened to Caleb T.?  He faces 2 batters and we never see him again, and now he is on the IL.  I really missed something here.  

Yeah. Winder called up when he went back on the IL with an oblique strain

[LewFordLives]

Every season will have losses like this. It's just especially frustrating because this team has let so many winnable games slip through their fingers. 

 

[chpettit19]

Julien looks like he can be a really nice hitter in the bigs, but he's a shining example of why defense matters. So many plays that he just can't make, and when you can't make the plays it makes your pitcher throw more, and leads to the BP having to come in earlier than it should. Correa still should've made the throw on the double play, but if Julien can field it and get it to him smoother, and quicker, Correa has time to set himself a little as he throws. The play up the middle on Vlad with Bichette at first where Julien tried to back hand it wasn't the easiest play in the world, but when you're shifted up the middle, and the ball is 10 feet to your right, and not particularly well hit, you need to turn that into an out. Lewis' throw on Vlads grounder to 3rd needs to be an out (lots of free trips to 1B for Vlad today). Defense matters, and today was a great example of it.

And Pagan still needs to go. 3 high leverage appearances in 66 games isn't a lot, but he's blown all 3, and as the season gets deeper, and you get into the postseason, you can't keep playing with a short pen every night because you have a guy who can only pitch low leverage spots. They need to upgrade the pen. And DFA Kepler. There's no reason those 2 are on the team anymore. Time for the FO to step up and do their jobs.

[LastOnePicked]

Listened on the radio up until the disputed Kiriloff strikeout. I knew they were going to lose after that. As in, I would have bet my house on it, if I were a betting man.

It's just an odd game of tone, momentum and vibe with this team. It's luck, sure, but it just also seems about bringing in negative energy with roster decisions. Heck, maybe it's the cosmic ripple of thousands of understandably-pessimistic fans, all imagining worst-case scenarios at the same time. I have no idea.

Going to be a memorable year, one way or the other, Oof. But I'm past mad at this point. No reason to be mad anymore. I just marvel at the goofiness of it all.

[KirbyDome89]

1 hour ago, Sutter50 said:

The Blue Jay's lost like this yesterday. It's not just a twins thing

A blown lead isn't just a Twins thing. Handing Pagan a high leverage situation, despite the fact that he has proven time and time again he'll implode, certainly is. 

[wabene]

16 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

A blown lead isn't just a Twins thing. Handing Pagan a high leverage situation, despite the fact that he has proven time and time again he'll implode, certainly is. 

You could say the Bird's use of Cimber was similar. 

[High heat]

This game is what bad teams do and is an example of where we are.

 

Up 5 runs and lets teams hang around, don’t make plays defensively to give extra outs.  Then keep throwing out the same veterans because you signed them and are unwilling to pivot and cut bait when it doesn’t work out.  
 

You just can’t keep giving Pagan inning that matter in any situation.  You just knew today that it was going to end badly.  Was like staring at a burning fuse heading to a stick of TNT!!!

[KirbyDome89]

21 minutes ago, wabene said:

You could say the Bird's use of Cimber was similar. 

If Cimber wasn't really damn good for Toronto last year you could maybe have that conversation.

[blindeke]

2 hours ago, Squirrel said:

What does ‘down’ mean? Sick? Sore? Unavailable? What? If we were that short then I double down on the FO not rostering a better BP.

Unable to pitch.

[Steven Trefz]

1 hour ago, KirbyDome89 said:

A blown lead isn't just a Twins thing. Handing Pagan a high leverage situation, despite the fact that he has proven time and time again he'll implode, certainly is. 

That’s where I was going with my title.  Basically this game is a manifestation of the trade before the season last year, and an unwillingness to move on in the bullpen.

[Linus]

Just make the plays in the field and we win even with Pagan pitching. Julien is a DH. We seem to have several players that profile similarly. 

[darwin22]

2 hours ago, DocBauer said:

Watched some of the game, monitored it also on the "live" MLB page when I couldn't watch it.

1] Varland deserved better.

2] I don't want her my hopes up, but the bats at least appear to be heating up. Let's hope it's not an illusion.

3] But Correa on 3rd base with ZERO outs and all we can muster is a pair of SO and a weak...normal...Kepler grounder to 2B? 

4] After the commercial break, i heard the Twins booth trying to legitimize, or explain, the called 3rd strike on Kirilloff for not being in the box and ready at the 8 second mark. Maybe, maybe AK didn't have his eyes focused on the pitcher for a moment, but he was standing on the box, head up, and bat held high at 9 seconds. Or maybe I'm going blind. That was atrocious!

5] Even with a 2 run lead, I quit watching or following when Pagan came in. I already knew what was going to happen, I didn't need to watch it. And just like last year, just like this year, he absolutely blows it. And he's done this again and again for multiple teams for 5 consecutive years. 5 years as the worst RP in all of MLB with the lowest WPA, and yet he still has a job for some reason.

Not only should he not have been in the pen to begin with, but repeating the same ineptitude this season should have him gone Monday. I would trust almost anyone from AAA over him at this point. Just ridiculous.

Your #5 remark regarding Pagan:  I'd venture a strong guess that the vast majority of fans "tuned out"/ "turned away" from game with Pagan entering.  

To clarify point in earlier post, this was the 1st game Pagan pitched in with the Twins holding a lead since his nuclear meltdown in LA on May 17th.  Not seeing a large number of fans defending the decision to bring him in, but there's a BIG REASON why he doesn't pitch in these high leverage situations.  Plain and simple, he chokes!  I could care less about his 7 effective appearances between May 17- June 6th as they were all LOW LEVERAGE situations (Twins trailing by 1+ runs).

Pagan IS the modern day version of Ron Davis. 

Twins have jettisoned other RPs that failed-----Joe Smith, Addison Reed and others------what makes Pagan the exception?

Is it really an ego thing with Falvey and the front office?  Admitting your mistake and DFA Pagan immediately.

 

 

[Nashvilletwin]

Here is the positive of today.  We played four of our young prospects -Lewis, Kiriloff, Larnach and Julien - and this team had life. I was anxious to watch each of their ABs.  They played well, outside an iffy play by Julien and the throwing error by Lewis.  They so need to be in the lineup every day they can.

Now, let’s get the next two - Wallner and Miranda - in there and let this young cadre of talent get the valuable experience they need/deserve and gel as a unit.   Lee can be a September call up.