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    Would the Twins Be Better Off Trading Royce Lewis?

    Royce Lewis once looked like the face of the franchise. Now, with top prospects knocking on the door and difficult roster decisions looming, trading him might not be as far-fetched as it sounds.

    Sam Caulder

    Twins Video

    The Twins are going to be one of the fascinating teams to monitor leading up to the 2026 MLB trade deadline on August 3. Regardless of how competitive the organization believes they are, the way this roster is currently constructed, it feels inevitable that some moves have to happen.

    Multiple factors are going into that. An abundance of talent in the minor leagues and a shortage of fans and revenue have created a unique situation. They have more young players pushing for opportunities than they have everyday spots available, and at some point, difficult decisions have to be made. That's why players like Trevor Larnach and Joe Ryan have been mentioned so frequently in trade rumors.

    Despite the Twins still having a chance to control him for one more season, moving Larnach now would clear some money off the books while also opening up major-league at-bats for the Twins' next wave of outfield talent. Then you've got Ryan Jeffers. He’s set to hit free agency this winter, and it feels very unlikely that he'll be back in Minnesota beyond this season. If that's the case, you're probably better off moving him now, rather than watching him leave for nothing in a few months.

    Those are the names everyone has talked about. But every trade deadline, there are always a handful of players who get moved that nobody saw coming. I think the Twins have one of those candidates this year. It's Royce Lewis.

    For a while, it looked like the Twins had found their next franchise superstar. Former No. 1 overall picks don't come around often, and when Lewis finally reached the majors, he looked every bit like the guy everyone envisioned. The talent was obvious, and when he got hot, he could completely take over games. He just wasn't able to stay healthy for a long while—and then, once he finally was, somethign seemed to be missing.

    It feels like every time Lewis has started to build momentum, another injury has sent him back to square one. Those repeated setbacks haven't just limited his availability; they've also taken a toll on his production. As a result, his numbers have cratered. This season, Lewis is hitting just .213 with a .294 on-base percentage and a .676 OPS. It's the third straight season in which he's posted a batting average below .240 and an on-base percentage below .300. It's also the second consecutive year he's carried an OPS below .700.

    At some point, you have to acknowledge reality. Sometimes, players and organizations need a fresh start. That might be exactly what both Royce Lewis and the Twins need. It isn't just about the offensive struggles, either. Moving Lewis would also clear up what is becoming an increasingly crowded infield picture. Lewis is no longer the young, up-and-coming prospect he once was. He's 27 years old now, and frankly, where does he fit long-term?

    He's already had to move off both shortstop and third base, eventually settling into a primary role at first base. That transition alone says a lot about how the organization currently views him defensively. Meanwhile, the Twins have more infield talent on the way. Kaelen Culpepper should be making his major-league debut sometime over the next couple of months. Marek Houston probably isn't far behind and could realistically arrive sometime next season. Brooks Lee and Luke Keaschall are also still parts of that jam. Either way, the Twins are looking at an infield that's going to be awfully crowded over the next couple of years. If everyone develops the way Minnesota hopes (which, to be fair, they probably won’t), there won't be enough everyday opportunities for everyone. Moving Lewis could solve part of that puzzle.

    It might also allow the Twins to stick with someone like Kody Clemens. Clemens has shown he can play a strong first base while providing better production, and both players still have two years of arbitration eligibility. If the price tag is going to be higher for Lewis, why not keep the more productive player while clearing up another roster spot in the process? It’s harsh to say that about Lewis, and I take no pride in doing so. But that’s the cruel business of baseball. It doesn’t care about your feelings, as nice as that would be.

    So what could the Twins realistically get for Royce Lewis? By himself, not a whole lot. This is a 27-year-old hitter whose primary position is now first base, coming off multiple injury-plagued seasons while struggling offensively. That's not exactly the type of profile teams are lining up to acquire. At the same time, though, every front office has seen what Lewis looks like when he's feeling himself. He's shown flashes of being the type of player who can carry an offense for (literally) weeks at a time. His ceiling isn’t what it once was, but when he’s on, you don’t want to pitch to him.  For a contending team looking for upside, Lewis could absolutely be worth taking a chance on, especially as part of a larger deal.

    If the Twins packaged him with someone like Jeffers or Larnach, not only would they clear additional money from future payrolls, but they could also increase the overall return in a hypothetical trade. Lewis isn't bringing back a quality prospect on his own. But as an additional piece in a larger package, he could make a deal more appealing for another organization.

    It would certainly qualify as one of the more surprising moves of the trade deadline—not because he’s a season-saving addition for a team, but because of the context. Again, this is a player who was once viewed as the future of the franchise. He delivered one of the most memorable moments in recent Twins history, with his Game 1 homer off Kevin Gausman in the first inning of the 2023 AL Wild Card (the second one was cool, too, but the first one is cooler). He had the makings of a star.

    But baseball changes quickly. Injuries happen–to some more than others. And eventually, there comes a point where both sides might benefit from turning the page. If the Twins decide that's the route they want to take, moving Lewis before the trade deadline would be surprising, but in my opinion, not crazy. 

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    Very interesting question.  We only have another what, ten days to see what happens.

    Thought your presentation of the situation was excellent.  Like Lewis, I pray there is some G.M. out there who loves Wallner's power and potential with his team.  

    He is a sunk cost.  I don't see him improving in the future.  He made some progress and seems to be reverting back.  As a first baseman there is minimal value. If someone is willing to give us some value I absolutely take it.  

    I think Royce Lewis could be better off with another organization who values his skills and athleticism. I think Twins, under this front office, would likely be better off, too. This front office doesn't seem to have a place for Lewis, and wasting his skills and athleticism at 1B is a joke.

    Trading Lewis has minimal value for the Twins as they've absolutely erased Lewis' value through systematic stupidity, but the move certainly could look like one of the worst moves in this organization's history by the end of next year.

     

    He's in much the same situation as Rodriguez, just at different points in their careers. If a team is willing to give you value that'd reflect Emma as a top 50ish prospect or Lewis as a possible borderline All Star, pull the trigger. If they are only willing to give you a flier on either of them, you just have to hold them and do everything you can to get them on the field and performing to the best of their ability. 

    Only other variable with Lewis is the money. If you're just going to nontender him, take whatever lottery ticket you can get for him. No reason to lose him for nothing if you can get something. Even if it's very little something.

    I think you need to give him until the end of the year at least.  He has been making improvements at the plate and I would not want to give up on him yet.  He was moved off of 3B by the team, he was not a butcher there and was making improvement as he got more reps.  It was part of a plan to make room for Culpepper, so he willingly moved to first and is looking competent there and getting better.

    Lewis has an it factor that you don't have in any other player except Buxton.  It has to start translating to more production on the field but he is not someone I would give away.  And there is no replacement for him.  I am not going to count on Clemens to have another career year.  What he is doing this year is helpful but I am not going to move someone in hopes that it continues when he is already 30.  

    There is no logjam in the infield, you have Culpepper and Houston close to the major leagues and that is it.  There are no first baseman ready to come up.

    17 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

    I think Royce Lewis could be better off with another organization who values his skills and athleticism. I think Twins, under this front office, would likely be better off, too. This front office doesn't seem to have a place for Lewis, and wasting his skills and athleticism at 1B is a joke.

    Trading Lewis has minimal value for the Twins as they've absolutely erased Lewis' value through systematic stupidity, but the move certainly could look like one of the worst moves in this organization's history by the end of next year.

     

    Isn't the reality that injuries mostly erased Lewis' value and his inability to produce after getting healthy the last couple of seasons wiped out the rest of it? This isn't about the Twins not valuing his skills or athleticism, it's about injuries robbing him of both and him not being able to produce consistently without them.

    He had a very good run after his minor league re-set...and is now struggling at the plate again. He no longer has the speed and quickness to play SS, and his scattershot arm has made it necessary to have a strong 1B to bail him out. He looks like he could be a quality 1B, so it makes sense to let him give it a go there, but if he can't pull out of this latest slump, none of it matters. And it's really not on the Twins at this point for his lack of hitting.

    Systemic stupidity? Hardly. Injuries wrecked him and he hasn't been able to find a way with less athleticism in his arsenal. Let's not pretend Royce Lewis is still the super fast, super athletic guy from 2022.

    27 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

    I think Royce Lewis could be better off with another organization who values his skills and athleticism. I think Twins, under this front office, would likely be better off, too. This front office doesn't seem to have a place for Lewis, and wasting his skills and athleticism at 1B is a joke.

    Trading Lewis has minimal value for the Twins as they've absolutely erased Lewis' value through systematic stupidity, but the move certainly could look like one of the worst moves in this organization's history by the end of next year.

     

    Royce lost his value because he lost the ability to hit. What specifically did the Twins do to cause that?

    1 minute ago, chpettit19 said:

    Royce lost his value because he lost the ability to hit. What specifically did the Twins do to cause that?

    The positional move from SS to 3B to 1B. It's $16MM of value for a full season. The "nobody plays nowhere" positional philosophy of this front office kills player value.

    Think of him as a third baseman, not 1B - Pirates, Brewers and Marlins all need 3B.  He still has value - trade him.  Jeffers is obvious.  Not sure if Larnach is since his resurgence.  But Wallner, Martin, Lewis are all good chips.  Ryan has me in a quandry.  I hate giving up a good pitcher. 

    Although Lewis is 27 years old, he's missed a huge amount of time, which obviously has a large impact on development at the highest level of baseball.   Three years ago Buxton hit .207, as an example of how injuries can impact players - or even the improvement of Larnach - who hasn't been hampered by injuries.  If they jettison Lewis it would be a calculated gamble.  It all depends on the deal they can get.  It wouldn't be a surprise if he suddenly puts it all together.

    2 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

    The positional move from SS to 3B to 1B. It's $16MM of value for a full season. The "nobody plays nowhere" positional philosophy of this front office kills player value.

    He stopped hitting before they moved him to 1B. He moved there in the minors at the age of 27 after getting demoted because he hadn't hit for 2 years. That argument doesn't make any sense at all.

    He moved to 3B for some guy named Correa. And hit well while playing there until completely falling apart. He didn't fall apart when they moved him, he fell apart a year and a half later.

    $16MM of value for a full season is nonsense in this discussion. You think other teams would be looking at Lewis hitting at an 80-something OPS+ for 2 years while playing below average defense at short and think "my goodness, we really need this guy!" Or putting up those numbers while playing a better, but still not very good defense at 3B and be begging for him?

    Royce Lewis stopped hitting. That's why he lost his value. And it had nothing at all to do with him changing positions.



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