Is Zebby Matthews's Future in the Rotation?

Zebby Matthews has been a win for the Twins' pitching development, even if his stock has dropped since his debut. After speeding through the minors on his way to his big-league debut in 2024, he's struggled with consistency. The Twins don't have other options in the rotation for the rest of 2026, but where will he be in 2027 and beyond?

An 8th-round pick in 2022, Zebby Matthews is already a successful pick from that draft. He added velocity after the Twins took him, which he paired with impeccable control to dominate the minor leagues. His overall results at the big-league level so far leave plenty to be desired, with an ERA over 5.50 in just under 200 innings. There's always a chance he can improve, but there are signs that his best role long-term isn’t in the rotation.

Matthews has a diverse arsenal, throwing five pitches at least 10% of the time in 2026. His best two offerings, by far, are his two breaking balls, an 89-MPH slider and an 87-MPH curveball. His fastball remains his most-used pitch and has been hit hard, with a .366 wOBA allowed while not drawing nearly enough swings and misses. His heater is also down to 95 MPH, from 96.2 last season. He throws a changeup and cutter as well, though neither has been particularly successful.

Depending on the rotation depth the Twins have in 2027, they may have to ask themselves some difficult questions regarding Matthews. Can he improve enough to be a consistent starting pitcher? Can he transition to a relief role and become an impact reliever? As the sample size of innings in the rotation grows, these questions are starting to get louder.

Matthews looked like a master of control and command in the minor leagues, but this hasn’t played out at the MLB level. His walk rate in the big leagues is still good, but it’s a far cry from the control he showed in the minors, where filling the strike zone didn’t lead to nearly as much punishment. 

What we’ve seen with Matthews is that while he’s capable of throwing plenty of strikes, he lacks the command to locate his pitches where they won’t be crushed. This is on full display when watching him while ahead in the count. Instead of putting hitters away by leveraging advantage counts, he far too often throws a hittable pitch, allowing opposing hitters to bail themselves out.

He's flashed high-level stuff at points in his young career, but saw a slight decline in 2025 and then again in 2026, particularly with his fastball. It’s possible he lacks the command to be a consistently successful MLB pitcher with this diminished level of stuff. If it’s not going to come back in a starting role, it may be worth seeing if he can harness it out of the bullpen.

The most recent example of a fringe starting pitcher turned impact reliever is Andrew Morris this season, but we've seen the Twins utilize this route plenty in recent years. A move to the bullpen would allow Matthews to trim his arsenal and utilize his best pitches more often in shorter stints. He shouldn't need to rely on his fastball as often as a reliever, but history tells us that there's a chance that he could reclaim the velocity he once flashed that approached triple digits. While starting pitchers of any type are valuable, Matthews reestablishing the stuff he flashed a few years ago could make him an impact reliever.

While it would be great for Matthews to become even a back-end starting pitcher, there are other paths to him being an impact arm for the Minnesota Twins. Perhaps we need to see a bit more before committing to Zebby Matthews in the bullpen, but if he continues to struggle for the rest of 2026, the question may have to be asked. Is Zebby Matthews’ future in the Twins’ rotation?