Nationals 10, Twins 4: Death by a Thousand Paper Cuts

[Hans Birkeland]

The Twins came out flat against a talent-deprived Washington offense, allowing fourteen, mostly soft, hits and never truly getting back in the game.

Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson, USA Today

Box Score
SP: Pablo Lopez: 4 IP, 8 H, 5 R, 2 BB, 6 K, 83 pitches (60 strikes, 37 strikes 72.2%)
Home Runs: Buxton (3)
Bottom 3 WPA: Lopez (-0.313), Jorge Polanco (-0.096), Max Kepler (-0.73)

Win Probability Chart (via Fangraphs):

Pablo López falls victim to the Washington Piranhas
The first inning got off to an auspicious start, as López got ahead of the leadoff hitter 0-2 before running an inside fastball too far inside for a hit-by-pitch. The next hitter doubled which may have been the only real mistake López made in the inning. Joey Meneses then hit a grounder that Jose Miranda ranged far to his left but made an off balance throw to first, failing to record an out, although the runner at third would have scored regardless. A walk followed, then two dominating strikeouts.

Side Note: The game time temperature at Target Field today was 35 degrees. Pablo Lopez's previous coldest first-pitch temperature was 56 degrees in Cleveland in 2019. 

López then threw one of his better sweepers that Christian Vázquez couldn’t handle, resulting in a wild pitch and a 2-0 deficit. López had good stuff and decent command, spotting his fastball up in the zone and his changeup below the zone. He did seem to make an adjustment following the lone walk, getting a visit from Pete Maki and challenging the National’s crop of underwhelming hitters. It did seem as though championship-winning manager Davey Martinez had the Nats ready to play, despite the dearth of talent on his roster. They dinked and dunked on a pitcher they were familiar with from López’s days in the NL East, selling out for contact and building a 4-0 lead by the second inning despite only one hard hit ball.

The “death by a thousand paper cuts” attack continued in the fourth, with Victor Robles doubling off Michael A. Taylor’s glove and taking third because he assumed Taylor would struggle to make a good throw back to the infield. He was correct, and made that same assumption on a short fly ball to Taylor in the next at-bat, scoring the Nat’s fifth run. It begs the question of whether a more competent offense trying to get off more “A” swings may have been, ironically, easier to pitch to given Saturday’s weather. Lopez was removed after 83 pitches in what had to be one of the more frustrating outings of his career.

Chad Kuhl doesn’t lose his cool, or the game
Kuhl isn’t devoid of ability, as his complete game shutout against the Dodgers at Coors Field last summer may indicate. He threw plenty of sliders that the Twins didn’t do much damage off of, but overall lacked command, walking four and unleashing a wild pitch. He was worked hard and was not efficient, throwing 96 pitches while failing to complete four innings. The Nationals’ bullpen kept the lead intact, as Mason Thompson, Hobie Harris, Carl Edwards Jr. and Anthony Banda combined to allow just three additional runs over five and a third innings.

Buxton continues to improve
Byron Buxton was in an extended strikeout stretch following his collision at second base in the White Sox series. Things have turned around a bit since then, with Buxton entering the game not striking out in 14 straight plate appearances. Making a dedicated effort to avoid striking out, Byron Buxton continues to look better and better, drawing a walk in the first and crushing an inside fastball for a home run in the third. He just missed a pitch with two men on in the fourth, flying out to center to end the inning.

Woods Richardson makes his 2023 debut
Simeon Woods Richardson, called up to provide length after the Boston series depleted the back end of the bullpen, was sharp, hitting 93 MPH on his fastball and pairing it with an effective change-up. The questions with SWR have been, can he be effective in the lower 90’s after sitting in the mid-90’s with the fastball earlier in his minor league career, and is his changeup a plus pitch or just an average offering. His stuff looked good against the Nationals, but its hard to draw any definitive conclusions facing a team whose best hitter, Jeimer Candelario, was released by the Tigers over the offseason. The Nat’s highest upside hitter, CJ Abrams, delivered the big blow, waiting on a changeup down and in and golfing it for a three-run home run to put the game away in the seventh. 

Trying to stretch his outing out and complete the game, SWR was clearly gassed in the ninth, losing his command and allowing some hard contact, resulting in giving up the last two runs of the game.

Joey Gallo hitting second
Imagine this scenario playing out two months ago. No one who writes about the Twins was especially keen on the Gallo signing, but to Gallo’s and hitting coach David Popkins’ credit, he looks like the only force in the Twins lineup. Health may be a factor, as Gallo was in the midst of a breakout season in 2019 when he fractured his wrist, hitting for a .253 batting average and .986 OPS while playing the majority of his games in center-field.

He followed with a terrible 2020 season, a wildly inconsistent 2021, and a brutal 2022 where he hit .160. Maybe the wrist injury changed his mechanics and Popkins helped him restore his 2019 form, or maybe Gallo is simply getting fat off of mediocre pitching thus far in 2023. Either way, his insertion into the two-hole is more than justified given the underperformance from all the other Twins hitters. He didn’t have his best day, going 0-4 with two strikeouts.

Larnach averages 97.1 exit velocity against offspeed
Trevor Larnach, much maligned for his inability to hit breaking/offspeed pitches, did quite well against them today, not recording a strikeout and posting exit velocities of 98.1 MPH against a Chad Kuhl slider in the second, 97.6 MPH against a Kuhl slider in the fourth, and hitting a two RBI single in the seventh at 95.3 MPH against a Hobie Harris split-changeup. Adjustments have been made, but it will be interesting to see if those hold against stiffer competition.

What’s Next
Bailey Ober will make his first start for the Twins this season on Sunday as the Twins try to prevent what would be an embarrassing home sweep against the Nationals. Ober will face off against Patrick Corbin (1-2, 6.30 ERA) whose contract pays him $24.4M this year and $35.4M next year. He has specialized in waking up dormant offenses the past few years, so we’ll see what the Twins can do.

Postgame Interviews

 

Bullpen Usage Chart

	TUE	WED	THU	FRI	SAT	TOT
Woods Richardson	0	0	0	0	97	97
Moran	26	0	44	0	0	70
Jax	26	0	0	31	0	57
Headrick	0	47	0	0	3	50
Pagan	0	0	42	0	0	42
Thielbar	17	0	0	12	0	29
López	10	0	0	16	0	26
Durán	19	0	0	0	0	19

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[D.C Twins]

Woof!

[ashbury]

I want a lot more than this from SWR.  I nearly don't care what Austin Martin does, short of building a Hall of Fame career, but if SWR doesn't pan out then the Berrios trade counts as a failure in my book.  Pitching is the coin of the realm and when trading away 1.5 years of control of a very good pitcher you have to get excellent future pitching in return.  Accepting just one talented prospect arm in trade means all your chips (for that trade) are on him.

He still doesn't turn 23 until September, so maybe he can develop further, but almost 100 pitches and not completing 5 innings isn't "sharp", as the article described the outing.

[darwin22]

Complete embarrassment.

[DocBauer]

I missed the first few innings due to work. But the numbers Lopez posted and the couple "low lights" I saw on replay argues against him having "good stuff and command". But again, I didn't get to watch him live. This game may have flustered me more than Friday's loss. Grrr, to both.

BULLET POINTS:

1] Smalley made a comment that the Nat's seemed to be laying back and just waiting for off speed stuff. If true, why didn't the Twins see this and make adjustments?

2] I think Buxton, Correa, and Miranda are starting to heat up. Thank goodness!

3] Larnach is getting a steady diet of nothing but breaking balls and off speed pitches. To his credit, and intelligence as a hitter, it sure looks like he's starting to adapt. Just a little more patience to avoid some swings and misses, he's going to PUNISH the opposition. 

4] I think Popkins is a pretty good hitting coach. Several players have commented on his teaching and approach. But at the end of the day, it's still up the players to produce. I don't feel Popkins is the offensive issue.

5] Power and OB and OPS for Gallo  are all fine. And I get why they put him in the #2 spot today. Trial and error and whatnot. Especially with Polanco just coming back. But he's more dangerous, and fits better, IMO, somewhere between 5-7 in the lineup. 

6] I actually really liked most of what I saw of SWR today. I wasn't a fan of his previously, and didn't understand all the platitudes he received as a prospect when drafted and with his trade to the Twins. There wasn't any great pitch or outstanding velocity that made me think he was worthy of the hype. Then he had a pretty good 2022 after being "messed around with" due to a fast track promotion and the whole Olympic ordeal that interrupted his development. But I'm seeing the delivery, and the potential now. I'm starting to see what he might become. He flashed at times today. I don't think he's quite ready yet, but I'm starting to see the potential.

7] Dinks and ducks and seeing eye singles happen. Weird crap happens in baseball. We won 2 in NY and should probably won 3. Stuff happens. Lost a game in Boston where weird stuff happens. It's baseball. But the Twins are way more talented than the Nationals overall and losing this series just shouldn't have happened. 

8] This homestand is a time to WIN SOME GAMES and make a statement. The Twins should end up with AT LEAST  6 wins, if not 7, over said homestead.  Being down 2 games right now is just not right. 

GO TWINS! GET IT RIGHT!

[rwilfong86]

Hopefully they can salvage one game and avoid the sweep.

[h2oface]

The Twins got Lopez drunk after all of 4 games, loaded him up, and today was a big Lopez hangover. 4 games and he was anointed. Now we see how long it lasts. 

I love excuses for the cold weather. The Twins bundled up in Bazooka Joe face gators, and the Nats went commando. They played in the same weather. 1-6 in the last 7. It ain't the weather.

[tony&rodney]

The Nationals are not a good team. 

[Alex Wilde]

2 hours ago, ashbury said:

I want a lot more than this from SWR.  I nearly don't care what Austin Martin does, short of building a Hall of Fame career, but if SWR doesn't pan out then the Berrios trade counts as a failure in my book.  Pitching is the coin of the realm and when trading away 1.5 years of control of a very good pitcher you have to get excellent future pitching in return.  Accepting just one talented prospect arm in trade means all your chips (for that trade) are on him.

He still doesn't turn 23 until September, so maybe he can develop further, but almost 100 pitches and not completing 5 innings isn't "sharp", as the article described the outing.

As if Berrios has been anything but a #5 starter over the past year or so?

[Aggies7]

42 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

The Nationals are not a good team. 

Are the twins?

[Woof Bronzer]

3 hours ago, D.C Twins said:

Woof!

Hi!

[Danchat]

1 hour ago, Alex Wilde said:

As if Berrios has been anything but a #5 starter over the past year or so?

There is such thing as a lose-lose trade...

[wabene]

Ouch, go Twins. 

[jkcarew]

Please don’t describe a pitcher exhausting 100 pitches to get through 5 innings as “sharp”

Please don’t insinuate that Buxton’s recent struggles had anything to do with his base running ‘incident’.

 

[srjr19]

If Patrick Corbin makes $1 per start and has a 25.00 era with 0 strikeouts and 12 walks.  he'll still go perfect the first time through the Twins order.  This lineup is totally clueless.

[h2oface]

Duran has 19 pitches in 5 days. And to think he could be the next de Grom, and we are wasting his massive ability and talent, and he would rather be a starter, anyway.

[Major League Ready]

8 hours ago, Danchat said:

There is such thing as a lose-lose trade...

The Twins lost nothing.  They were out of it in 2021 so those two months were meaningless.  He was literally replacement value last year so they nothing.  I would guess he bounces back but it may very well end up being a win to simply have not signed him to an extension of length he demanded.  

[Jeff D.]

Professor Baldelli is at the helm. The Twins are playing his type of baseball. That is all!

GO Twins!

Twins Geezer out.

[John Belinski]

Twins give Buck a big contract and he doesn't hit. The Twins give Correa a big contract and he doesn't hit. The Twins give a big contract to Lopez and he hits 2 batters and walks 2 batters and gives up 4 hits in first 2 inning after getting big contract. Let's hope the Twins do not give out more big contracts since it seems to be the kiss of death.

It all starts with leadership and Rocco is not a leader. His comments after losing game after game is we have to play better or we played bad last game and can not think about the lost game. The Twins need to hire an experienced manager and not keep their trainee manager. How many games must they lose due to poor management choices before Rocco is replaced?

[mikelink45]

I understand how Pablo could be affected by  the cold, but the rest of the team?  We are now under 500 since the last all-star game.  Is that a fluke or who we are.

Gallo batting second with two Ks in four ABs, yet his 258 AV was second only to Vasquez in the starting lineup.  That is a problem. 

SWR had a chance to impress - he did not.  Is Winder next in that role?  Glad to see Ober getting the start today. 

But where is the urgency?  

[Whitey333]

Twins as a team are hitting .228.  not acceptable.  Trying to win today just to avoid a sweep against a very poor nationals team is embarrassing.  Blaming it on the weather is ludicrous.  Yes it was cold.  But didn't appear to hamper the lowly nationals.  Have now lost 6 of 7.  This team continues to play very boring and undisciplined baseball as it has the past two seasons.  

[JD-TWINS]

2 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

The Twins lost nothing.  They were out of it in 2021 so those two months were meaningless.  He was literally replacement value last year so they nothing.  I would guess he bounces back but it may very well end up being a win to simply have not signed him to an extension of length he demanded.  

It’s over - no bearing on what’s happening day to day in ‘23. I do hope Martin’s arm is OK & he can progress to give us some help next year or turn into a trade chip for some help.

SWR is OK…..not great. If he were he’d be in our rotation. He got up above 90 pitches within 36 hours of getting called up so the fact that he tired is reasonable.

Yesterday’s issue was the lethargy most guys seemed to be captured by. I get it was ridiculous weather - same for both teams & you’d hope guys living there could be better with the mental adjustment!

Vázquez can’t let the slider go off his glove as López was working his way out of a jam by striking out the side - free run. Taylor cannot drop a ball that hits the pocket of his glove & then give up another base by throwing behind the runner - at least one if not two free runs.

All of a sudden we’re down 4 runs after two National’s at bats & it’s 34F…….bad day!!

Correa 3 hits - Buxton drew a walk & hit a home run……..looking for bright spots.

IMO……would be fantastic to salvage 6 of 10 in this home stand…….down two early. 6 wins gets us to a 17-12 April which sounds nice to me.

[William K Johnson]

Can't wait until Farmer takes over at third.    Two plays yesterday that a decent third baseman makes are not made.   Miranda is a DH at this point in his career.

[hitterscount]

How is the back end of the bullpen depleted? Seriously... since last Thursday Duran has made two appearances, Jax and Lopez three each with neither pitching more than an inning or on back-to-back days. Pagan, Moran and Acala are struggling with ERA's anywhere from 4.5 to 7,9, but depleted is not accurate unless you mean several cannot be counted on in any meaningful situation.  

It's time to get back on track... Duran is one of my closers on my fantasy team and this losing streak is not good.  

[Riverbrian]

Rarely have I seen so many bloops land so i'm gonna give the pitching a pass across the board. The Nats didn't exactly crush our pitching. 

Defense... no such pass. 

The bats.. no such pass given. 

11 Strikeouts in the game and the biggest issue with those K's is that most of them appeared to be right down the middle. It wasn't Sale painting the corners like he did the other night in Boston. The Nats pitching just wasn't good enough for 11 K's. 

For perspective by comparison with other teams. The Twins hitters are averaging 9.67 K's per 9 innings. Only the Giants are worse at 10.80 per game. (Tigers are at 9.68 I'll say that's a tie). The Best K per 9 team interestingly belongs to the Nats with 6.95 per 9. 

Putting the ball in play was the difference in that game... putting the ball in play may not be the difference in the next game. 

Anyway... Players strikeout in today's baseball. It's frustrating but the Twins are not alone walking back to the dugout. 

However... yesterday... they were whiffing on pitches down the middle. They need to stop doing that. 

 

[JD-TWINS]

10 hours ago, jkcarew said:

Please don’t describe a pitcher exhausting 100 pitches to get through 5 innings as “sharp”

Please don’t insinuate that Buxton’s recent struggles had anything to do with his base running ‘incident’.

 

Buxton can be an electric presence in the line-up. He’s capable of hot streaks that are sweet to watch and some real ugly slumps. He is often the same electric presence in the OF & it upsets fans he’s not giving it (us) his all as a daily DH. IMO, using him as DH & having him playing 90% plus of the time - thus giving him a chance to carry us for a game or 3 once in a while is worthwhile.

Buxton through 21 games v. career.

        2023……………….Career

OBP  .316 ……………….. .301

BA.    .243 ……………… .244

OPS.  .759 ………………. .773

SLG.  .443. ………………  .472

OPS+ 114. …………………. 108

Guy isn’t going to change in his 9th year. Just hoping for plenty of the 2-3 game streaks that help us win games! Hopefully, being healthy and playing 80-90% of the time v. his track record of 47% of games in 7 of 8 years gets us wins in ‘23.

[HokieRif]

13 hours ago, h2oface said:

The Twins got Lopez drunk after all of 4 games, loaded him up, and today was a big Lopez hangover. 4 games and he was anointed. Now we see how long it lasts. 

I love excuses for the cold weather. The Twins bundled up in Bazooka Joe face gators, and the Nats went commando. They played in the same weather. 1-6 in the last 7. It ain't the weather.

This was my concern with re-signing him early. I probably would not make a good GM, but signing players to new contracts mid-season takes some of the player’s urgency out of it since they’ve made their bank.  it also opens things up to potentially missing out on a guy because they waited too long, the player significantly increased their market value, and now my team can’t afford him

[chinmusic]

1 hour ago, John Belinski said:

Let's hope the Twins do not give out more big contracts since it seems to be the kiss of death.

I'll assume you made that comment out of frustration , which is understandable.

Maybe revisit that after the season.

[wabene]

Lopez is done trying hard for the next 4 years now that he's got his money. Ha ha ha that's gotta be it! I crack myself up ha ha ha.... 

[ashbury]

16 hours ago, Alex Wilde said:

As if Berrios has been anything but a #5 starter over the past year or so?

My view on trades is a mix of "process" and "results".  The players involved are human beings and each part of the trade may, or may not, turn out as hoped.  I don't particularly care if my team "wins" a given trade (trading away relative peanuts in return for blue-chip talent, say), but results do matter, and what I want is that the original aims eventually pan out.  So what we trade away doesn't matter to me very much, in terms of results after the trade.  That's true whether we're the one acquiring proven major league talent, or we're acquiring prospects.

In the case of Berrios, we traded a very valuable, established, starting pitcher.  That remains true even if he turns into a pumpkin after he's gone; at the time of the trade is what matters to me, for what we send out.  He started out very well for Toronto, then things went kind of bad, but he finished 2021 with a string of 7 highly professional starts. So things in 2022-23 are more on them, than on us.

But trading for prospects is ALL about results, and you can't know for several years.  But at the time I would have preferred the Twins hedge their bets, assuming they really liked SWR as the best arm available in trade, with a couple of other good quality pitching prospects in addition, instead of Austin Martin.  I am guessing that Toronto held firm on giving up additional arms, and apparently the Twins thought Martin was can't-miss with the bat.  Oops.  He could still be a productive major leaguer, but that's not a good return when trading away pitching.